The Public Opinion Monitor Reflecting the mood and attitudes of British people Growing economic confidence proves misplaced as Britain slips into double dip recession The TNS-BMRB Public Opinion Monitor measures public attitudes towards the British economy alongside people s perceptions of their own financial position and prospects, as well as the biggest challenges facing the country today. In a week when it emerged that the country has tipped back into recession, our findings show that public confidence actually improved throughout the first quarter of 2012 and that over the last four months people became a little more optimistic about the condition of the economy. Prior to the announcement that the economy contracted, figures from the Public Opinion Monitor show that people were braced for a period of extended economic stagnation during which their personal financial and economic prospects, though not necessarily worsening, would fail to rebound to pre-recession levels. Contents Vol. VII, April 2012 2 3 4 5 The Economy A look at attitudes towards the state of the British economy over the last year shows signs of emerging optimism, which seem likely to fall again in the light of new economic data. Personal Income and Employment How people perceive changes in their personal job security over the last year and the prospects for income growth in 2012. Personal Spending and Household Budgets Pinched budgets continue to suppress spending in a majority of Britain s households. The Policy Priority Index The shifting policy priorities of the British public over the last 12 months. Even such modest hopes now seem misplaced and only time will tell if the budding public confidence that had begun to emerge can be sustained as we move further into 2012. For further details on this data or any other research we conduct, please contact Nick Howat at TNS-BMRB. TNS BMRB TNS 27.04.2012 Nick Howat Head of Social and Political Attitudes TNS-BMRB 6 More London Place London SE1 2Y t +44 (0)20 7656 5742 nick.howat@tns-bmrb.co.uk www.tns-bmrb.co.uk
The Economy: Stabilisation, but little sign of recovery British Economy 70% Compared to a year ago do you think the British economy is doing...? Better than it was 12 months ago Much the same as it was 12 months ago Worse than it was 12 months ago 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Since December 2011, and prior to the announcement that the country had fallen back into recession, there had been a steady improvement in public attitudes regarding the state of the economy with the number of Britons who felt it was deteriorating falling from 58% in December 2011 to 41% in April 2012. However, overt optimists remained scarce, with only 11% thinking the economy had improved, though this was more than double the 5% level recorded in December. Nearly half (48%) felt that the economy was in much the same condition as 12 months ago. With the economy officially slipping into recession in the first quarter of 2012, even the modest hopes shown in the Public Opinion Monitor could be over-optimistic. There is evidence that more people expect the economy to improve over the next year (17% in April; up slightly from a low of 10% in December), while there has been a gradual decline in the number saying they expect it to worsen; 28% in April, down from 37% in December. However, with a majority (55%) saying they expect it to be in much the same condition in 12 months time it seems that most people expect an extended period of economic underperformance with little hope of a return to pre-recession levels in the immediate future. This figure has remained broadly stable over the last year of polling. 0% Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 Base: 1,190 in April 2012 In 12 months time do you think the British economy will be doing...? 17% 55% Better Same Worse 28% Base: (1,190)
Static incomes and mixed job security Personal Income and Employment The sense that the economy is stabilising but not necessarily improving is reflected in public perceptions of their own income and employment prospects. In April 2012 an overall majority (62%) said they expect their income to stay the same over the next year with a fifth (20%) expecting a decrease and another fifth (18%) expecting an increase. Attitudes of people in employment have been very stable over the last year with the proportion expecting their income to increase or decrease fluctuating negligibly month on month. In April 2012, 19% of people in employment thought their income would increase over the next 12 months whilst 12% expected a decrease. There was also little variation in attitudes towards job security with just over a third of employed people (37%) saying their job felt less secure in April 2012, compared with 36% back in August 2011. Among the unemployed there was greater uncertainty about future income prospects with a third (33%) saying they expected their income to fall over the next year. This figure has fluctuated throughout 2011 and 2012 with a low of 22% in November and highs of 33% in both August and now in April. Such variation is likely a reflection of heightened uncertainty among those whose income is dependent on government spending during a period of increasing austerity. Whether think household income will increase stay the same or go down 18% 62% 20% Increase Stay the same Go down Base: who could answer (1,107). NB: Respondents answering Don t Know have been excluded from the base. 11% How safe think current job is compared to 12 months ago 52% More safe Same Less safe 37% Base: All workers who could answer (674). NB: In all cases, respondents answering Don t Know have been excluded from the base.
Households continue to feel the pinch Personal Spending and Budgets It is clear that households continue to feel the pinch of recession in their personal finances with half of those questioned in April 2012 (51%) saying they are finding it harder now to meet their monthly household budgets than they did a year ago. This is a slight improvement on the situation in September, when 58% said they were struggling financially, but it hardly reflects a surge in confidence. This is further reflected in the fact that the number saying they are finding it easier to cope has remained unchanged throughout the last year at roughly one in twenty. If it is easier or harder to meet monthly household budget... the same 42% easier 7% harder 51% Tighter budgets and worries about future economic prospects are inevitably having an impact on people s willingness to spend with a majority saying that, even if they received a substantial increase in their personal income, they would prefer to reduce their debt burden (40%) or boost their savings (35%), rather than spending on things for themselves and family members to enjoy (25%). Again, these figures have been steady throughout 2011 and 2012, indicating that while most people do not feel their personal situation is getting worse, they are not anticipating any improvement in the near future either. Base: who could answer (1,190). What respondents would do with a substantial income increase 25% 35% 40% Spend it on things for yourself or family to enjoy Use it to increase savings or pension Use it to pay off debts such as mortgage or credit card bills Base: who could answer (1,190).
Economic concerns still considered the most important challenges facing Britain today Policy Priority Index For the last year the TNS-BMRB Policy Priority Index (PPI) has asked people to rank eight policy areas in terms of their relative importance in British public life. The twin economic concerns of Inflation and Unemployment have dominated the PPI for the last year. From March to October 2011, Inflation was the biggest concern. Since November, as inflationary pressures began to ease and unemployment remained stubbornly high, Unemployment moved to the top spot on the PPI and has remained there ever since with an average score of 77 for the period to April 2012. The average PPI score for Inflation over the same period was 72. The two issues consistently occupying third and fourth place on the PPI over the last year have been Crime and the National Health Service. Between March and December 2011 the two issues achieved similar scores, with Crime spiking briefly in the aftermath of the summer riots before falling back. Since December, as the government s proposed reforms have been subject to an increasingly high profile public debate, the NHS has moved ahead and stayed ahead of Crime as the third biggest policy concern for the British public. Concerns about Taxation have occupied fifth place on the PPI throughout the last year, followed closely by Education in sixth. Interestingly there was no significant rise in concerns about Taxation following the Chancellor s March budget, suggesting concerns over the Granny Tax have yet to resonate with the wider public. However, with more spending cuts coming into effect in 2012 Taxation is certainly a policy area to watch in the future Occupying the two bottom spots on the PPI for the last year have been National Security and the Environment with neither issue showing significant variance over the period in question. Priority Score The biggest challenges that Britain is facing today are... 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Mar Jun Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April I nflation/rising prices Unemployment National Health Service Crime/Law & order Level of taxation Education National security defence Environment Base: (1,611)