S&P Industry Briefing: Thrifts & Mortgage Finance August 1, 16 Dr. Ed Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-36 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P Thrifts & Mortgage Finance Stock Price Index 1 Earnings 2 Revenues & Margins 3 Earnings Growth & Valuation 4 August 1, 16 / S&P Industry Briefing: Thrifts & Mortgage Finance www.
182 162 142 122 2 82 62 42 Figure 1. Stock Price Index DISCONTINUED EFFECTIVE 11/3/ AS HCBK WAS REMOVED FROM S&P S&P THRIFTS & MORTGAGE FINANCE STOCK PRICE INDEX* (HCBK) 182 162 142 122 2 82 62 42 22 22 11/2 2 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 2 -day moving average. * Ratio scale. Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics. 11 9 Figure 2. S&P THRIFTS & MORTGAGE FINANCE, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Thrifts & Mortgage Finance Index 11/2/ Blue Angels Implied Price Index* /29/ 11 9 7 7 3 3 1 x12 x18 x24 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 1 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / August 1, 16 / S&P Industry Briefing: Thrifts & Mortgage Finance www.
. Figure 3. Earnings S&P THRIFTS & MORTGAGE FINANCE OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts)..4.3 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings*.4.3 16.1 17.1 /29.. -.1 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 -.1 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. 3 Figure 4. DISCONTINUED EFFECTIVE 11/3/ AS HCBK WAS REMOVED FROM S&P S&P THRIFTS & MORTGAGE FINANCE NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* 3 - Oct - - - -3 - - NERI Aug -11.1 Sep -11.1 Oct -11.1 9 11 12 13 14 16 17-3 - - * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates. Page 2 / August 1, 16 / S&P Industry Briefing: Thrifts & Mortgage Finance www.
2 1.8 1.4 1. Figure. Revenues & Margins DISCONTINUED EFFECTIVE 11/3/ AS HCBK WAS REMOVED FROM S&P S&P THRIFTS & MORTGAGE FINANCE REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward revenues* 16 2 1.8 1.4 1..6.6 17 /29 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. 3 3 Figure 6. DISCONTINUED EFFECTIVE 11/3/ AS HCBK WAS REMOVED FROM S&P S&P THRIFTS & MORTGAGE FINANCE PROJECTED PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward profit margin* (13.7) 3 3 2 17 2 16 /29 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page 3 / August 1, 16 / S&P Industry Briefing: Thrifts & Mortgage Finance www.
6 Figure 7. Earnings Growth & Valuation DISCONTINUED EFFECTIVE 11/3/ AS HCBK WAS REMOVED FROM S&P S&P THRIFTS & MORTGAGE FINANCE LTEG VS STEG (percent) LTEG* (NA) STEG* (1.3) 6 /29 - - - STEG capped at -% and % - -6 9 11 12 13 14 16 17-6 * STEG: 12- month (2-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, then weekly. 2 Figure DISCONTINUED 8. EFFECTIVE 11/3/ AS HCBK WAS REMOVED FROM S&P S&P THRIFTS & MORTGAGE FINANCE VALUATION 2 P/E capped at /29 Forward P/E* (.) 2. 2. Relative P/E and PEG capped at 2. /29 2. 2. 1. 1. 1... Relative P/E** (2.) PEG Ratio*** (NA) 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 1... * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page 4 / August 1, 16 / S&P Industry Briefing: Thrifts & Mortgage Finance www.
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