Annual Results Presentation for the 12 months ended 30 September 2018

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Transcription:

Annual Results Presentation for the 12 months ended 30 September 2018

AGENDA Business Page 3 / Slide 3 Operational Page 5 / Slide 8 Industry Trends Page 12 / Slide 21 Financial Page 16 / Slide 29 Outlook Page 22 / Slide 42 Additional Information Page 24 / Slide 46 2

BUSINESS OVERVIEW

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook HIGHLIGHTS A majority of the key drivers of profitability were in Astral s favour stars were aligned Feed input costs reduced notably due to lower maize prices on the back of a bumper maize crop for 2017 Supply and demand balance during the year gave pricing support Further improvements in on-farm poultry production efficiencies were achieved No further incidents of bird flu and related costs were experienced during the period under review Contribution to profitability from an improved performance across all business units 4

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook KEY FINANCIAL INDICATORS Revenue 5% Profit before interest and tax 79% Earnings per share @ 3 691 cps 88% Headline earnings per share @ 3 712 cps 94% Total dividend for the year @ 2 050 cps 94% 5

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook DIVISIONAL HIGHLIGHTS Poultry Feeding cost decreased Feed Maize prices notably down Bird performance improvement General market improvement Sales volumes flat Higher internal feed required Sales realisations up External sales volumes up No impact from HPAI (bird flu) Rand per ton margin up Other Africa Higher profits improved performance from Mozambique and Swaziland 6

PBIT F2017 Raw material cost Feed conversion efficiency Broiler sales volumes Broiler selling price Bird flu cost 2017 Other PBIT F2018 Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook THE YEAR IN PERSPECTIVE 2 500 (R million) 2 000 519 93 356 1 500 465 116 18 1 000 1 942 500 1 087 R855 million - 7

8

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook POULTRY DIVISION Revenue - R million Operating profit - R million 11 000 10 000 9 000 8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000-9 916 F2017 10 604 F2018 1 500 1 400 1 300 1 200 1 100 1 000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100-638 F2017 1 453 F2018 Revenue up 6.9% Operating profit up 127.7% Broiler sales volumes up 0.2% Broiler sales realisations up 7.1% Feed price down 4.0% Selling price contribution Net margin 13.7% F2017: 6.4% 9

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook POULTRY DIVISION Results for the year ended September 2018 are a significant improvement on the comparable period Feed input costs reduced due to lower maize prices on the back of a record maize crop for 2017 and an above average crop for 2018 Supply and demand balance gave pricing support in the first half of the reporting period, whilst the second half reflected a weaker market and softer selling prices Imports during the period were higher than the comparable period, averaging 48 305 tons ( 8,6 million birds per week) Further improvements in on-farm poultry production efficiencies, benefitting broiler live cost through an improved feed conversion efficiency No further incidents of bird flu and related costs were experienced during the period 10

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook POULTRY DIVISION PRODUCT MIX 22% 23% 7% F2017 436 695 Tons 49% 7% F2018 437 506 Tons Volume increase 0,2% 49% 14% 4% 4% 14% 4% 3% 11

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook BROILER PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE 108% 106% 104% 102% 100% 98% 96% 94% 92% Key indicators base-lined to 100% in F2013 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 Slaughter age Live weight Average daily gain 12

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook BROILER PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE 130% 125% 120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% Key indicators base-lined to 100% in F2013 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 Mortality rate Feed conversion rate Efficiency factor (PEF) 13

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook BROILER PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE 125% 120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% Key indicators base-lined to 100% in F2013 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 Broiler feed price index Feed conversion index Feeding cost index 14

15

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook FEED DIVISION Revenue - R million Operating profit - R million 7 000 500 6 000 5 000 6 583 6 198 400 391 457 4 000 300 3 000 200 2 000 1 000 100 - F2017 F2018 - F2017 F2018 Revenue down 5.8% Raw material costs down Average selling prices down 11.2% Operating profit up 16.7% Net margin 7.4% F2017: 5.9% Improved trading conditions Sales volumes up 6.1% 16

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook FEED DIVISION SAFEX yellow maize prices decreased notably for the period under review F2018 avg. R2 098 per ton (F2017: R2 464) down R366 per ton year-on-year Internal feed sales increased by 6.0% due to an increase in broiler production numbers in F2018 External feed sales increased by 6.1% as all livestock sectors benefitted from lower feed costs Expense increases were contained to 4.7% year-on-year across all seven feed mills The average net margin increased (on a Rand per ton basis) for the period under review 17

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook FEED DIVISION SALES MIX 13% 12% 21% F2017 1 329 771 Tons 60% 22% F2018 1 410 283 Tons Volume increase 6.1% 60% 6% 6% 18

19

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook OTHER AFRICA DIVISION (Zambia, Mozambique & Swaziland) Revenue - R million Operating profit - R million 450 35 400 427 411 30 32 350 300 25 27 250 20 200 15 150 100 50 10 5 - F2017 F2018 - F2017 F2018 Revenue down 3.7% Raw material costs down Sales volumes up 4.0% Average selling prices down 7.4% Operating profit up 20.2% Net margin 7.8% F2017: 6.3% Mozambique & Swaziland improved performance 20

INDUSTRY TRENDS

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook SAFEX YELLOW MAIZE PRICE Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers 22

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook SAFEX YELLOW MAIZE PRICE vs. CBOT IN RAND TERMS Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers 23

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook DURBAN SOYA MEAL PRICE Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers 24

Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook Tons 70 000 65 000 60 000 55 000 50 000 45 000 40 000 35 000 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 POULTRY IMPORTS PER MONTH Total poultry imports 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Total poultry imports) Source: SAPA 25

Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook BROILER SELLING PRICES 160% 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% Broiler selling price index Six month average Source: Own Data 26

Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook BROILER PRICE vs. FOOD PRICE INFLATION 170% 160% 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 170% 160% 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% Broiler selling price index SA food price index Source: Own Data 27

Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook CHANGE IN POULTRY SELLING PRICE vs. FEED PRICE 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% % Change in broiler feed price % Change in poultry selling price Source: Own Data 28

FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

Business Operational INCOME STATEMENT Year ended 30 September Industry Trends 2018 R million 2017 R million Restated Financial 2017 R million Revenue 12 979 12 417 12 351 Operating profit 1 942 1 056 1 048 Operating profit margin 15.0% 8.5% 8.5% Profit on sale of investment - 31 31 Profit before interest and tax 1 942 1 087 1 079 PBIT margin 15.0% 8.7% 8.7% Net finance income / (cost) 52 (15) (15) Profit before tax 1 994 1 072 1 064 Tax (560) (311) (309) Profit for the period 1 434 761 755 Outlook % change 5% 84% 79% 86% 89% Headline earnings 1 439 741 735 EPS Cents 3 691 1 963 1 948 HEPS Cents 3 712 1 914 1 899 88% 94% 30

18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0,000 Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook GROUP ANNUAL REVENUE (R billion) 3,7 3,9 4,1 2,8 2,7 2,7 2,7 2,0 1,3 1,7 2,2 2,3 4,8 5,2 2,5 2,7 3,3 3,6 6,3 6,9 3,5 5,1 4,4 4,6 7,4 7,0 7,2 4,0 3,6 3,5 5,1 5,0 5,3 8,2 8,5 4,3 4,9 5,8 6,0 9,6 5,5 7,0 12,0 11,3 7,2 6,2 8,7 9,1 12,4 6,6 9,9 13,0 6,2 10,6 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Poultry Feed Other Africa External revenue 31

1880 1380 880 380-120 Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook GROUP ANNUAL OPERATING PROFIT (R million) 14,8% 15,0% 1942 0,16 12,3% 12,8% 457 0,14 0,12 9,8% 8,7% 9,6% 9,3% 1101 1086 8,3% 8,4% 7,3% 766 809 6,7% 6,6% 674 597 5,8% 423 391 548 581 585 5,1% 549 5,9% 272 333 477 493 389 328 214 282 3,1% 261 151 281 262 4,6% 203 220 153 385 79 289 130 354 485 124 90 174 238 383 494 476 163 282 262 353 137 329 104 661 638 1453 59-112 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Poultry Feed Other Africa Profit on Sale of Investment 0,1 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 0 32

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook GROUP SIX MONTHLY OPERATING PROFIT (R million) 875 1044 191 898 550 551 207 266 429 324 154 140 153 59 135 156 173-3 -117 5 280 203 213 157 197 45 59 186 237 233 351 310 194 120 212 252 184-135 22 616 836 617 1H12 2H12 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 Poultry Feed Other Africa Change in feed price Change in broiler selling price 33

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook BALANCE SHEET September 2018 R million September 2017 R million Restated % change Non-current assets 2 409 2 228 Net working capital 1 189 869 Current assets (excl. cash) 2 943 2 468 Current liabilities (excl. borrowings) (1 754) (1 599) Non-current liabilities (excl. borrowings) (650) (610) Net assets 2 948 2 487 8% 37% 19% 10% 7% 19% Net (surplus cash) (789) (552) Equity 3 737 3 039 Total 2 948 2 487 42% 23% 19% 34

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook CAPITAL EXPENDITURE Twelve months ended 30 September 2018 R million 2017 R million Depreciation 152 149 Total capex spend 356 150 Commitments 1 401 148 Total spend and committed 1 757 298 35

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook CAPITAL EXPENDITURE F2018 2018 R million Processing plant equipment 113 Breeder farm refurbishment 22 Water augmentation project Western Cape 16 HPAI mitigation project 42 Listeria mitigation project 17 Sub-Total 210 Other: normal on-going capex 146 Total capex spend F2018 356 36

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook CAPITAL EXPENDITURE COMMITMENTS R million Total commitments 1 401 Major projects: 1 271 Festive expansion (Phase 1 & 2 800 000 bpw) 875 Mountain Valley expansion (200 000 bpw) 203 Meadow Feeds Standerton silo complex 53 New feed mill Zambia 140 37

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook WORKING CAPITAL For the twelve months ended 30 September 2018 R million 2017 R million Variance R million Current assets 2 943 2 468 475 Biological assets 770 658 112 Inventory - Poultry 532 258 274 - Feed 255 185 70 - Other Africa 50 50 - Trade receivables 1 204 1114 90 Receivables investment sold 16 56 (40) Other receivables 116 147 (31) Current liabilities (1 754) (1 599) (155) Trade payables (1 324) (1 151) (173) Other payables (430) (448) (18) Net working capital 1 190 869 321 38

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS For the twelve months ended 30 September 2018 R million 2017 R million Cash operating profit 2 156 1 436 Working capital movement (425) (71) 1 731 1 365 Tax paid (516) (310) Net interest received / (paid) 58 (11) Capital expenditure (358) (180) 915 864 Dividends paid (729) (108) Government grant received - 29 Other cash flow items 45 7 Loans (repaid) - (35) Movement in cash equivalents 231 757 Effect of exchange rate changes 6 - Opening balance 552 (205) Closing balance 789 552 39

F2001 F2002 F2003 F2004 F2005 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook HEADLINE EARNINGS & DIVIDEND PER SHARE (cents per share) 3712 2016 1914 1286 1381 1148 958 840 890 960 965 787 864 631 487 434 272 326 90 108 168 230 380 585 700 700 700 760 810 656 222 440 1150 490 1055 2050 Headline earnings per share Dividend per share 40

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook IN SUMMARY Record profits in F2018 with profit margin at 15.0% (F2017: 8.7%) Cash flow generated from operations R1 731 million in F2018 Net surplus cash at year-end of R789 million Final dividend of 1 050 cps within the Group s liquidity capability Full year dividend of 2 050 cps at 1.8 times cover (up 94%) 41

OUTLOOK

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook POTENTIAL NEGATIVE INFLUENCES Raw material prices are on an upward trend and will impact Astral s largest input cost, namely feed making up 67% of broiler live cost The impact of international trade wars and geopolitics on key input costs, including coarse grains and fuel The negative impact of high fuel prices on consumer disposable income and continued pressure on poultry selling prices The impact of the new minimum wage will increase production costs however could lead to higher levels of consumer discretionary spend High levels of poultry imports from Brazil and the USA, expected to continue The on-going risk of bird flu, however prevention strategies to manage this threat are in place, albeit at additional associated costs Policy uncertainty around land expropriation without compensation and the impact on property rights and capital investment 43

Business Operational Industry Trends Financial Outlook POTENTIAL POSITIVE INFLUENCES Improved political situation in South Africa and the region Indications of a more business friendly environment in South Africa, with key government departments engaging with the poultry industry The European Partnership Agreement (EPA) safeguard duty finally imposed on poultry imports into South Africa from the EU Progressive genetic improvement of the Ross broiler breed will continue to support the group s best cost strategy Sufficient international and local coarse grain stocks Expansion in Astral s poultry processing capacity (up 20%) over the next three years (capex of R1.1 billion) supports the President s investment drive and stimulus plan announced during the year 44

45

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

WHAT WE SAID IN MAY 2018 General business confidence improved as well as the prospect for foreign direct investment following the election of a new President for the country A bumper maize crop in 2017 and the country set to harvest an above average maize crop in 2018 will stand us in good stead over the next period from a feed input cost point of view Further unlocking the inherent genetic potential of the Ross broiler breed through optimised broiler nutrition therefore cementing Astral s best cost strategy Higher level of competitiveness as producers have expanded broiler production numbers, and the pork industry has been forced to sell product at lower prices following the listeria outbreak Continued high levels of poultry imports especially from the United States of America and Brazil, equivalent to over 40% of local poultry production HPAI remains a threat and major concern for the poultry industry with the upcoming winter season? 47

Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS 70 65 30,0 61 60 55 25,0 50 40 30 20 10 37 36 33 31 8,9 7,5 7,3 5,5 5,5 48 48 39 39 11,4 10,0 9,6 8,3 6,1 4,7 51 49 46 45 16,5 13,9 14,5 14,8 12,3 12,8 4,1 4,4 4,3 41 42 16,1 36 34 36 31 31 30 29 15,0 28 25 26 26 11,0 11,1 9,9 23 9,9 9,3 21 20 19 19 7,4 9,3 6,5 9,8 8,0 8,4 13 8,7 7,8 12 5,8 5,1 4,7 4,8 3,6 3,7 4,0 3,8 3,9 4,2 4,6 4,1 4,1 4,1 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0 - RONA ROE EBITDA margin PBIT margin Asset turn 48

Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 KEY FINANCIAL INDICATORS 100 90 96,06 80 78,15 70 60 61,05 61,07 50 40 30 20 10 0 26 22 23 20 10,79 8,53 29 21 14,34 17,36 21 28,28 23,83 17 9 33,47 34,24 19 14 12 12 41,36 41,65 44,16 37,43 35,38 21 15 16 11 10 14 15 9 7 3 49,95 18 9 24 2 34 10 34 24 0 0 NAV share Working capital days Net Debt / Equity 49

WORLD CORN ENDING STOCKS 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 Million Tons 28,73% 27,80% 27,61% 25,00% 23,85% 19,82% 19,86% 14,81% 12,30% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% End Stock Maize stock to use ratio Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers 50

SOUTH AFRICA TOTAL MAIZE SUPPLY & DEMAND Marketing year (May to April) '000 tons 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19E 2019/20F Actual Actual Actual Actual Estimate Estimate Forecast Carry In (1 May) 1 414 589 2 074 2 471 1 093 3 689 2 326 Crop Estimate 11 811 14 250 9 955 7 779 16 744 12 931 12 347 Retentions 433 163 309 837 932 890 Sagis Delivery 11 072 13 817 9 794 7 469 15 907 11 999 11 457 Minus early deliveries 0 0 0 450 0 0 0 Imports 80 65 1 964 2 237 0 0 0 Total Supply 12 566 14 471 13 831 11 727 17 000 15 688 13 783 Domestic Usage Food 4 583 4 840 4 698 4 808 4 872 5 145 5 063 Domestic Usage Feed 4 715 5 041 5 520 5 004 5 399 5 308 5 435 Gristing, withdrawn & released 480 376 293 278 358 281 314 Total Domestic Usage 9 777 10 257 10 512 10 090 10 630 10 734 10 812 Exports & Sundries 2 122 2 153 848 993 2 925 2 628 1 814 Plus early deliveries 0 0 0 450 0 0 0 Carry Out (30 Apr) 590 2 062 2 471 1 093 3 446 2 326 1 156 No of days usage 25 73 86 40 118 79 39 STU 4,96% 16,62% 21,75% 9,87% 25,42% 17,41% 9,16% Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers 51

SOUTH AFRICA TOTAL MAIZE SUPPLY & DEMAND 4 000 3 500 000 Tons 28,31% 30% 25% 3 000 2 500 2 000 16,62% 21,75% 17,41% 20% 15% 1 500 1 000 12,23% 9,87% 9,16% 10% 500 0 4,96% 1414 590 2062 2471 1093 3689 2326 1156 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19E 2019/20F 5% 0% Carry out Maize stock to use ratio Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers 52

EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION - FORECAST Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) Columbia University 53

SOUTHERN AFRICA - VEGETATIVE HEALTH INDEX VHI of previous year VHI of current year Source: NOAA - National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (VHI) 54

BROILER FEED INGREDIENT INCLUSION & COST CONTRIBUTION 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 0,3 7,5 0,2 6,4 9,1 11,4 4,7 10,3 0,9 14,9 8,6 14,9 0,3 7,3 0,4 6,7 6,4 15,6 5,0 10,3 1,2 14,0 5,6 20,3 0,4 6,6 0,5 7,3 6,9 16,8 4,7 9,1 1,7 17,2 5,4 22,3 0,5 9,9 0,4 7,8 6,2 14,0 5,4 13,8 1,5 18,8 4,0 18,6 0,5 14,6 0,5 8,6 6,1 14,0 6,0 19,8 1,7 21,5 3,3 0,4 16,6 0,7 9,1 5,7 13,2 5,4 22,2 2,3 21,3 4,1 30% 17,9 17,9 20% 10% 0% 65,0 45,7 63,3 43,6 61,4 39,6 61,1 38,0 55,6 29,8 54,3 26,7 1H16 Incl. 1H16 Contr. 2H16 Incl. 2H16 Contr. 1H17 Incl. Maize Sunflower Meal Fish Meal Vitamins, Minerals and Medication. 1H17 Contr. 2H17 Incl. 2H17 Contr. 1H18 Incl. Soybean Meal Other F/Fat and Extr Soy 1H18 Contr. 2H18 Incl. 2H18 Contr. Source: Own Data 55

BRAZIL, EU & USA PRODUCT COST BENCHMARK Ex BRAZIL December 2018 FROZEN LEG QUARTERS BULK PACKED CIF DBN US$ per ton TON 1 050.00 1 050.00 1 050.00 SA COST R/$ exchange rate R$ 14.20 14.40 14.60 Rand per ton TON 14 910.00 15 120.00 15 330.00 21 100.00 Rand per kg KG 14.91 15.12 15.33 21.10 Duty per kg KG 37% 37% 37% - Clearance costs KG 0.65 0.65 0.65 - COST INTO STORAGE KG 21.08 21.36 21.65 21.10 Storage KG 0.50 0.50 0.50 - Distribution KG 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.92 Marketing, Administration, Finance KG 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.96 TOTAL COST KG 23.18 23.46 23.75 22.98 EUROPE December 2018 FROZEN LEG QUARTERS BULK PACKED CIF DBN per ton TON SA COST exchange rate R$ Rand per ton TON 21 100.00 Rand per kg KG 21.10 Duty per kg KG - Clearance costs KG - COST INTO STORAGE KG 21.10 Storage KG - Distribution KG 0.92 Marketing, Administration, Finance KG 0.96 TOTAL COST KG 22.98 Source: Own Estimates 56

BRAZIL, EU & USA PRODUCT COST BENCHMARK EUROPE Ex Belgium, Ireland, Spain, Poland with Safeguard Duty @ 35,3% December 2018 FROZEN LEG QUARTERS BULK PACKED CIF DBN per ton TON 900.00 900.00 900.00 SA COST R/ exchange rate R$ 16.20 16.40 16.60 Rand per ton TON 14 580.00 14 760.00 14 940.00 21 100.00 Rand per kg KG 14.58 14.76 14.94 21.10 Duty per kg KG 35.3% 35.3% 35.3% - Clearance costs KG 0.65 0.65 0.65 - COST INTO STORAGE KG 20.38 20.62 20.86 21.10 Storage KG 0.50 0.50 0.50 - Distribution KG 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.92 Marketing, Administration, Finance KG 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.96 TOTAL COST KG 22.48 22.72 22.96 22.98 Ex USA December 2018 FROZEN LEG QUARTERS BULK PACKED CIF DBN US$ per ton TON 650.00 650.00 650.00 SA COST R/$ exchange rate R$ 14.20 14.40 14.60 Rand per ton TON 9 230.00 9 360.00 9 490.00 21 100.00 Rand per kg KG 9.23 9.36 9.49 21.10 Duty per kg KG 37.00% 37.00% 37.00% - Clearance costs KG 0.65 0.65 0.65 - COST INTO STORAGE KG 13.30 13.47 13.65 21.10 Storage KG 0.50 0.50 0.50 - Distribution KG 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.92 Marketing, Administration, Finance KG 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.96 TOTAL COST KG 15.40 15.57 15.75 22.98 Source: Own Estimates 57

LOCAL BROILER PRODUCTION & MARKET SHARE 23% 27% 4% 4% 8% 19% 7% 8% Astral RCL Country Bird Daybreak Sovereign Grainfields Chubby Chick Other Local broiler production 19.1 million birds per week Source: Own Estimates 58

LOCAL BROILER PRODUCTION & MARKET SHARE 31% 18% 13% 6% 16% 2% 3% 6% 5% Astral RCL Country Bird Daybreak Sovereign Grainfields Chubby Chick Other Imports Avg. poultry imports 8.6 million birds per week (12 months ending September 2018) Source: SAPA & Own Estimates 59

TOTAL POULTRY IMPORTS (CHICKEN, MDM, TURKEY) 600 000 Tons 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep F2015 42 363 81 170 108 674 137 660 168 965 209 337 247 672 285 532 327 180 375 717 417 427 460 255 F2016 37 789 83 258 126 866 165 602 200 461 258 134 306 385 360 899 414 947 460 098 502 138 551 209 F2017 50 324 101 279 135 812 173 187 212 399 278 057 319 933 367 106 409 557 453 981 499 952 551 867 F2018 46 348 92 223 140 823 188 065 228 295 281 102 327 753 374 838 412 638 461 454 523 205 579 661 F2017 50 324 50 955 34 533 37 375 39 212 65 658 41 876 47 173 42 451 44 424 45 971 51 915 F2018 46 348 45 875 48 600 47 242 40 230 52 807 46 651 47 085 37 800 48 816 61 751 56 456 % Var -7,9-10,0 40,7 26,4 2,6-19,6 11,4-0,2-11,0 9,9 34,3 8,7 bpw* 8,2 8,1 8,6 8,4 7,1 9,4 8,3 8,4 6,7 8,7 11,0 10,0 *bpw million birds per week Source: SAPA 60

TOTAL POULTRY IMPORTS COUNTRY OF ORIGIN Country of origin for poultry imports - 2017 Country of origin for poultry imports - September 2018 YTD US 15,6% Other 3,9% US 16,8% Other 3,6% Argentina 5,9% Brazil 60,6% Argentina 6,5% Brazil 62,1% EU 14,0% EU 11,0% 551 867 tons 579 661 tons Source: SAPA 61

TOTAL POULTRY IMPORTS COUNTRY OF ORIGIN Country Imports (tonnes) 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD Brazil 241 180 233 787 337 476 272 451 Netherlands 61 995 110 344 112 170 United Kingdom 15 985 45 647 1 366 206 Spain 27 090 39 620 11 138 258 United States 331 26 573 87 059 73 837 Belgium 35 613 24 256 23 451 23 Argentina 27 718 18 713 32 816 28 328 Ireland 13 336 15 556 24 746 21 437 Hungary 10 547 13 174 0 0 Denmark 9 508 9 779 16 884 22 388 Canada 131 8 884 14 431 5 342 Germany 554 6 073 134 168 Poland - 4 773 72 3 292 Thailand 7 616 2 078 4 019 6 254 Chile 408 360 1 770 3 427 Australia 264 254 984 268 France 24 895 105 4 3 Uruguay 182 0 25 359 Switzerland 72 0 0 73 Swaziland 35 0 24 258 Source: SAPA 62

Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 SOUTH AFRICAN PROTEIN PRICE COMPARISON 9 000 cents / kg 8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 Chicken Pork Beef Mutton Feed Conversion Rate 1.5 2.2 5.5 5.0 Per Capita Consumption 38,9 kg 4,6 kg 17,8 kg 3.2 kg Source: SAPA, FNB, Red Meat Industry Forum 63

INDUSTRY MATTERS

POULTRY IMPORTS The EPA (SADC-EU Economic Partnership Agreement) safeguard for poultry imports from the EU was published on 28 September 2018 Under the provision the safeguard duty on EU frozen bone-in portions will be as follows: 35.3% from 28 September 2018 up to and including 11 March 2019 30% from 12 March 2019 up to and including 11 March 2020 25% from 12 March 2020 up to and including 11 March 2021 15% from 12 March 2021 up to and including 11 March 2022 This duty levels the playing field somewhat with imports from Brazil and the US that are subject to the 37% import duty currently in place for those exporting countries (plus an anti-dumping duty on the US - for which the AGOA 65 000 ton annual quota is exempt) Imports from the EU over the past 18 months have been substantially lower than historical levels, from a time where record EU imports were received in November 2016. This is due to the prevalence of highly pathogenic bird flu in many EU countries affecting EU trade with South Africa Import volumes previously supplied by the EU have simply been switched to Brazil, which is currently the largest exporter of poultry products to South Africa 65

HIGHLY PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZA (HPAI) HPAI remains a global challenge, however, world-wide cases of HPAI in 2018 were much lower when compared to 2017 In South Africa, 193 cases of HPAI H5N8 have officially been reported across 8 provinces (Mpumalanga, Limpopo, Gauteng, KwaZulu Natal, Free State, North West, Eastern Cape and Western Cape) over a 14 month period from the 21 st of June 2017 to the end of September 2018 The number of HPAI H5N8 outbreaks in South Africa has been reported as 33 in commercial chickens (broiler breeders, commercial layers and commercial ducks), 47 on ostrich farms, 80 in wild bird (finches, sparrows, yellow-billed ducks, penguins, terns, white-faced duck, gannets and black swans), 23 cases in birds kept for hobby (and zoos) purposes and 10 in backyard chickens No reported outbreaks of HPAI were experienced by the local poultry industry since May 2018 66

LISTERIOSIS On 5 December 2017 the Minister of Health announced a Listeriosis outbreak in South Africa. This was ultimately declared the worlds worst Listeriosis outbreak on record with the death toll exceeding 200 people. Through SAPA the poultry industry engaged with the DOH, NICD, DAFF and DOA throughout the process, to counter the misrepresentation of the poultry industry as the primary cause for concern, and to ensure pragmatic reaction to the crisis. Production was suspended at one poultry abattoir near Hartebeespoort, but this was not linked to the outbreak strain. The outbreak strain (ST6) was identified in a processed meat facility in Polokwane, as announced on 4 March 2018. One of South Africa s largest poultry producers was also implicated at the time because the outbreak strain was detected on polony casings, however this could not be traced to their manufacturing facilities. Both businesses experienced severe disruptions to the relevant supply chains, which also had a delayed secondary impact on both pork and poultry supply. 67

LISTERIOSIS Astral was not implicated with the outbreak at any stage. Review of the company s food safety management system, the internationally benchmarked FSSC 22 000 accreditation, proved that the Astral s management of the risk of food borne pathogens is both world class, and robust in execution. This review included three independent evaluations of Astral s Listeria readiness. Astral did take additional precautionary steps during this period, which have been adopted as the new normal going forward. These included: increased testing and analysis for Listeria revised cleaning and sanitation protocols revitalization of the company s hygiene campaigns, improvements in processing based on HACCP methodologies Renewed and on going staff training. 68

SOUTH AFRICAN POULTRY ASSOCIATION (SAPA) SAPA has over the past year undergone a restructuring exercise reflecting a better organised association more reflective of the industry Both the broiler and layer organisations in this structure will be independently headed up by newly appointed General Managers spearheading specific interests in both areas of the industry Both organisations are managed by appointed boards consisting of member representatives, the General Manager and a nominated Chairman SAPA is governed by an appointed board comprising members of both organisations and led by an appointed Chairperson Membership of both organisations has improved markedly following the restructure, with the broiler membership representing approximately 73% of the local weekly broiler production numbers A statutory levy has been approved for the table egg industry, and together with the improved membership of both organisations SAPA is in a better position to lead important matters of industry interest 69

Chris Schutte Chief Executive Officer Tel : +27 (0) 12 667 5468 Fax : +27 (0) 86 504 2002 email: Chris.Schutte@astralfoods.com www.astralfoods.com Daan Ferreira Chief Financial Officer Tel : +27 (0) 12 667 5468 Fax : +27 (0) 86 504 1602 email: Daan.Ferreira@astralfoods.com