Global Index Briefing: World Developed ex-us MSCI January 4, 19 Dr. Ed Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-306 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents World Developed ex-us MSCI Stock Price Index 1 Blue Angels Forward Earnings and Valuation 2 Earnings 3 Revenues 4 NERI & Margins Earnings Growth & Valuation 6 January 4, 19 / Global Index Briefing: World Developed ex-us MSCI www.
Stock Price Index 1600 1400 Figure 1. DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI INDEX (ratio scale) 2 Local currency 00 US$ 1/4 1 0 800 600 400 9 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 Source: MSCI. 2.2 2.1 Figure 2. DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO (US$ index / local currency index, daily) 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1/4 1.7 1.6 1. 1. 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 Source: MSCI. 1.3 1.2 Page 1 / January 4, 19 / Global Index Briefing: World Developed ex-us MSCI www.
0 Figure 3. Blue Angels Forward Earnings and Valuation DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION (in local currency) Developed World ex-us MSCI Index 12/28/18 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* 12/28/18 x16 x14 0 x12 x x8 00 00 300 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 300 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December 0, weekly thereafter. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv. 30 2 2 200 Figure 4. DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION (in US$) Developed World ex-us MSCI Index 01/04/19 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* /18 30 2 2 200 20 1 1 0 x16 x14 x12 x x8 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 20 1 1 0 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December 0, weekly thereafter. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv. Page 2 / January 4, 19 / Global Index Briefing: World Developed ex-us MSCI www.
Earnings 0 8 Figure. DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE (in local currency) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 19 12/28 0 8 18 70 70 40 40 Forward earnings* 2 9 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 0, then weekly. 18 Figure 6. DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE (in US$) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 18 16 14 19 16 14 12 18 12 8 8 6 Forward earnings* 6 4 9 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 4 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 0, then weekly. Page 3 / January 4, 19 / Global Index Briefing: World Developed ex-us MSCI www.
112 Figure 7. Revenues DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (in local currency) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 112 0 0 97 18 19 12/28 97 82 Forward revenues* 82 70 04 0 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 70 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 0, then weekly. 200 Figure 8. DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (in US$) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 200 20 20 1 1 1 18 19 1 0 Forward revenues* 0 04 0 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 0, then weekly. Page 4 / January 4, 19 / Global Index Briefing: World Developed ex-us MSCI www.
Figure 9. NERI & Margins DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* 0 0 - - - Dec - -1-1 - - -2-30 NERI Oct -2.42 Nov -.80 Dec -8.33 9 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19-2 -30 * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. 9. 9.0 8. Figure. DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) 19 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 18 8.0 7. 7. 7.0 7.0 6. 6.0..0 Forward profit margin* (8.7) 04 0 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 6. 6.0..0 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 0, weekly thereafter. Page / January 4, 19 / Global Index Briefing: World Developed ex-us MSCI www.
0 4 40 3 Figure 11. Earnings Growth & Valuation DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI STEG, STRG, & LTEG (percent) LTEG* (9.0) STEG* (6.6) STRG* (3.2) 0 4 40 3 30 30 2 2 1 1 0-30 2 9 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 Note: STEG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term earnings growth. STRG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term revenue growth. LTEG is five-year consensus expected long-term earnings growth. Monthly data through 0, weekly thereafter. Figure 12. DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI VALUATION Forward P/E* (11.7) 0-30 2 1 1 3.0 2. 2.0 Relative P/E** (0.9) PEG Ratio*** (1.3) 3.0 2. 2.0 1. 1. 1.0. PEG capped at 2.. 9 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 1.0. * Price divided by forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 0, then weekly. ** Forward P/E relative to MSCI World forward P/E. *** Forward P/E relative to consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page 6 / January 4, 19 / Global Index Briefing: World Developed ex-us MSCI www.
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