1 = Nielsen s FMCG Index & Fuel Index = = 115 15 95 85 Durable and Semi-durable Indices Nielsen s FMCG Index sa, 3mma Fuel Index, sa Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS) Semi-durable Index sa,3mma Durable Index sa, 3mma Durable Index sa Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index = = 14 1 13 1 14 Service Index sa, 3mma Non-resident spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS) 7 * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector %YoY Private Consumption Indicators H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov P %MoM sa Non-durable index 1.2.8 1.6 1.2.9 -.1 2.9 2.6 -.5 Semi-durable index.7.6.8 2.4 2.5 2.5 5.9 3.4 -.8 Durable index 8. 6.8 9. 6.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 7.7 1.1 Service index 7.1 5.6 8.6 7.2 6.6 4.4 4.5 3.6 E.5 E (less) Net tourist spending 17.6 11.1 24.3 8.9 4.8-1.3-8.8-1.3 3.2 PCI 2.2 2.1 2.3 3.6 4.3 5.6 6.8 4.4 -.5 Sources: The Nielsen Company, Revenue Department, Department of Tourism, Ministry of Energy, NSO, OAE P = Preliminary E = Estimated 1 15 14 13
2 P = Preliminary Data %YoY 4 3 2 1-1 (%YoY) Farm Income H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov Nominal farm income P 3.2 15.5-7. -1.3 6.2 2.9 5.5-5. Agricultural production P 6.1 1.6 2.9 12.3 12.8 6.4 5.9-2.9 Agricultural price -2.8 4.4-9.6-12.1-5.8-3.3 -.3-2.1 Contribution to Growth: Farm Income -2 Apr Oct Apr Oct ข าวเปล อก อ อย ม นส าปะหล ง ยางพารา ผลไม ปาล มน าม น ปศ ส ตว ก ง อ นๆ รวมส นค าเกษตร Sources: UTCC, NSO, OAE, National ITMX Bulk Payment, calculated by BOT -5. Index = 1 14 Diffusion Index, sa (Unchanged = ) 7 5 4 Consumer Confidence Index Real Income Transfer of salary through FI sa, 3mma (Baht/person)* Transfer of salary through FI sa Total Non-Farm Income sa, 3mma Farm Income sa, 3mma Farm Income sa Note : * 1) Calculated from retail funds transfer transactions obtained from the National ITMX and BOT s payment systems data as the value of total salary tranfered divided by volume of salary transfer. 2) Nov figures were estimated by the BOT Total Current Next 6 months Average 5 years = 76.
3 (%YoY) Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Share 211 H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov P %MoM sa Food & Beverages 2.2 3.6 2.2 5.1 2.3 3.5 -.5 8.4 3.5 4.1 Automotive 16.9 3.6-3.3 1.8 11.3 1. 1.8 22.7 6.4-1.2 - Passenger Cars 3.4 1.8 1.2 2.4 7.7 5.1 4.2 17.7 3.1-4.6 - Commercial Vehicles 6.3 1.1-7.8 1.8 12.4 12.2 4.8 27.1 5.9 -.6 - Engine 6.3 7. -3.5 18.8 14.3 15.3 -.8 26.9 11.4.1 Rubbers & Plastics 1. 7.1.8 13.8-1.7-3.3-2.5-14.5-12.7.3 Chemicals 8.2 2.4 -.8 5.7 8.9 8. 3. 1.5 -.4 -.5 IC & Semiconductors 7.5 5.5 8.7 2.5 2.7 3.8 11.2-3.1 6.4 9.1 Textiles & Apparels 5.5-5.1-2.9-7.4-5.7-6.8-2.7-2.2-2.2 1.5 Cement & Construction 4.7-1.7-1.7-1.7 1.4 4.6 5.8 8.4 3.4 -.5 Electrical Appliances 4.1-6.9-4.6-9.7.8-1.2 2.5 6. -.8 2.1 HDD 3.2 14. 14.2 13.9 1.2 16.6 4.4-3.6-7.2 -.8 Petroleum 3.1 5. 3.7 6.1 2.6 3.9 1. 9.8 11.2 1.1 Others 16.5 -.1.4 -.5 -.9. -6.5 2.8-4..1 MPI. 2.5.5 4.7 4.1 3.7.9 5.8 1. 1.5 MPI sa % from last period. -.6 3.6.3 1. 1.8 2.6 1.5 - Capacity Utilization (SA) - 67.1 66.2 68. 68.2 69.2 68.7 7.1 7.8 - Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 211) P = Preliminary data Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT Index sa ( = ) Export<3% 3%<Export<% Export>% Note: Calculated and Classified by the BOT Index sa ( = ) MPI Classified by Export Share Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production * The latest month was estimated by the BOT Industrial Electricity Consumption* Quantity of Imported Raw Materials Index of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)
4 Index sa ( = ) 14 Bn baht 2 15 5-5 Investment in Machinery and Equipment Real Imports of Capital Goods Domestic Machinery Sales Car Registered for Investment Sources of Corporate Financing Business Credits (SA) Debt Equity 3MMA -17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Index sa ( =) 1, m 2 9mma 7, Note: Business credits and debt refer to change in outstanding (par); equity refers to new issuance at par value. Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET, Business Sentiment Survey by BOT, NSO, OIE, calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data 7 % YoY Permitted Construction Area (9mma) Investment in Construction Construction Materials Index Permitted Construction Area (RHS) 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov P %MoM sa -.8-1.9.3 1.3.2-3.7-6.9-8.9 E -.9 E Construction Materials Index -.9-1.8. -1.8.5 4.7 13.9 8.3-1. Real Imports of Capital Goods 2.2 1.5 2.9 4. 6.6 -.6 2.4 6.5 2.2 Real Domestic Machinery Sales 1.1 1. 1.2 3.2 9.9 8.4 5.3 3.9 E 1.4 E Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment Private Investment Indicators 5.7 2.8 9. 3. 6.8 6.3 7.5 2.6-2. PII 1.3.8 1.9 2.3 5.4 2.7 3.2 3.1.7 Capacity Utilization (SA) - - - 68.2 69.2 68.7 7.1 7.8 -
5 H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov P YTD No. of tourists ( ) 35,592 17,367 18,225 1,9 8,873 9, 2,712 3,178 34,431 %YoY 9.4 5.2 13.8 15.5 8.4 1.9 -.5 4.5 7.5 %QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - 3.7.5-3.4-1.5 4. - Index sa ( = ) 35 3 Tourists Classified by Nationality Total China (share 28%) Malaysia (share 1%) Asia ex. CN MY (share 3%) Europe ex. Russia (share 15%) Russia (share 4%) 25 2 15 5 Sources: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Calculated by Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data
6 Oct = 21.7 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 21.3 Bn USD Export Value Nov = 21.3 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 21. Bn USD P P Share %YoY P P H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov %MoM sa Agriculture 7.6 2.2 2. 2.4-1.6 7.8 1.3 11.7-14.9 2. Fishery.9 4.1 5.3 3.1 9.3-9.7-15.4-5.9-7.9.6 Manufacturing 87.5 1.2 9. 11.4 14.1 1.7 6.7 7.5 -.3 -.6 Agro-manufacturing products 12.3 12.6 1.4 14.7 6.5 8.4 5.8 9.9 -.2-2. Electronics 15. 14. 13.2 14.8 13.6 11.3 3.6 1.2-7.7 -.2 Electrical Appliances 5.6 6.2 6.7 5.6 9.6 3.6-3.4 -.6-4.7 2.9 Automotive 15. 6.3 2.4 1. 15.8 14.4 6.2-5.5-4.7 -.2 Machinery & Equipment 8.7 7.2 7.6 6.7 9.7 7.7 4.1 9.7.7-1.2 Petroleum Related 11.5 19. 18.4 19.6 26.2 26.5 19.7 25.7 15.9-3.7 Total (BOP basis). 9.8 7.3 12.2 9.9 12.3 2.6 8.4.2 -. Ex. Gold - 1.9 9.5 12.2 11.2 11.9 5.4 7. -.6.4 Ex. Gold+Petroleum related - 9.9 8.5 11.2 9.3 9.9 3.5 4.4-2.9 1.1 Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data P = Preliminary data Thai Export to Major Destinations Index sa, 3mma ( =) Ex.gold 14 13 7 * ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods Asian Export Performance Index sa, 3mma ( =) MY Japan* China US EU ASEAN5 ME ID ex.oil & Gas TH ex.gold SG KR TW CN
7 Oct = 2.4 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 19.6 Bn USD %YoY Nov = 2.7 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 2. Bn USD P P Share P P H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov %MoM sa Consumer 1.3 7.5 4.7 1.2 2.3 12.7 7.1 16.2 9.1 -. Raw mat & Interm 53.3 15.7 16.9 14.5 19.5 21.2 21.3 16.4 25.8 5.2 o/w Fuel 13.1 26.1 27.6 24.7 29.6 51.6 53.1 21.7 76.8 18.5 o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel Import Value 4.2 12.6 14. 11.4 16.2 12. 11.6 14.4 9.4 -.5 Capital 25.4 8.5 1. 7.1 6.7 4.2-5.9 -.3 4.2 9.3 Others 11.1 27.9 22. 32.9 25.9 4.3 35.3 7.6-6.5-5.6 Total (BOP basis). 13.2 13.4 12.9 17.9 16.8 17. 13.3 16.2 3.6 Ex. Gold - 1.7 11. 1.5 17.7 17.9 14.2 13.3 19.4 4.7 Ex. Gold&Fuel - 8.3 8.5 8.2 15.5 12.2 7.6 11.5 9.6 1.5 Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Index sa, 3mma ( =) Import Value Index Total imports Raw materials ex. fuel* Capital goods Consumer goods Fuel 4 * Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in others in the accompanying table. Index sa, 3mma ( =) Value Quantity Price Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data P = Preliminary data
Central Government Current Expenditure Billion baht (Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other) 1 1 14 5 4 3 2 1 avg. FY-18 FY FY219 Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug avg. FY-18 FY FY219 Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug การใช จ ายภาคร ฐท ไม รวมเง นโอนหดต วเล กน อยจากระยะเด ยวก นป ก อน ตามรายจ ายลงท นท หดต วจากผลของฐานท ส งในป ก อน ขณะท รายจ ายประจ าขยายต ว Nov.5% Central Government Capital Expenditure Billion baht (Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other) Nov -1.5% Billion Baht FY FY Fiscal Position (Cash basis) FY FY219 P Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Revenue 2,354 2,513 758 671 218 2 (%YoY) (-2.4) (6.8) (8.7) (8.9) (15.9) (3.5) Expenditure 1/ 2,795 2,882 731 6 429 226 (%YoY) (2.2) (3.1) (14.) (2.3) (.8) (-1.9) Budgetary B/L -441-368 28 65-211 -26 Non-Budgetary B/L 35-28 53-7 -37 6 Cash B/L (CG) -46-396 81-5 -248-19 Net Financing 489 56 83 212-4 66 Treasury B/L 524 633 427 633 381 427 Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 8 Sources: Comptroller General s Department, Fiscal Policy Office
9 %YoY 3 2 1-1 % Unemployment rate (sa) Employed persons (%YoY) Underemployment rate Labor Market Indicators H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 (1.2) 1.1 (1.) Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT 1. (1.) 1. (1.) 1. (1.) -.6 -.1-1.1 -.2.9 1.7 2.6 1.4.8.9.7.9.7.8.7.5 Headline inflation contribution Raw food (15.69%) Energy (11.75%) Core (72.56%) -2 Sources: NSO and Ministry of Commerce calculated by BOT Nov.94% Thousand persons sa, 3mma 28, 27, 26, 25, 24, 23, %YoY 3 2 1 Employment Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa) Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Agriculture (sa) (RHS) Rent (19.62%) Food & Beverage (28.17%) Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%) Core inflation contribution Thousand persons sa, 3mma 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, Nov.69%
1 Balance of Payments P P Billion USD P H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov E YTD Trade Balance 34.2 16.6 17.6 6.6 5.8 3.4 1.3.7 17.8 Exports (f.o.b.) 235.3 112.3 122.9 61.8 63. 63.4 21.7 21.3 231.2 %YoY 9.8 7.3 12.2 9.9 12.3 2.6 8.4.2 7.3 Imports (f.o.b.) 21.1 95.8 15.3 55.2 57.2. 2.4 2.7 213.4 %YoY 13.2 13.4 12.9 17.9 16.8 17. 13.3 16.2 16.7 Net Services, Income & Transfers 16.1 6.4 9.6 8.4.7.8.6 1. 11.5 Current Account 5.2 23. 27.2 15.1 6.5 4.2 1.9 1.6 29.3 Capital and Financial Account -12.6-9.9-2.7-4.3-9.5-4.2-1.9 -.3-2.2 Overall Balance 26. 1.2 15.8 12. -4.3.3 -.9.4 7.4 Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
11 Millions of USD P P P H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov E YTD 1. Assets -35,112-19,85-16,27-5,328-6,118-9,66-646 -2,746-23,4 TDI -18,632-6,727-11,4-5,81-5,441-5,563-553 -6-17,318 - Equity -9,31-2,53-6,798-1,871-1,319-3,331-379 -511-7,411 Thai Portfolio investment -11,551-6,324-5,226-2,68 1,638-1,358-552 -39-2,649 - Equity security investment -7,668-3,567-4,11-3,51-8 -282-434 559-4,548 - Debt security investment -3,882-2,758-1,125 1,433 2,528-1,77-118 -868 1,899 Loans -827-387 -44 27-1,74 566-36 -37-554 Other Investments -4,12-5,646 1,544 1,794-1,241-2,712 495-1,72-3,384 - Trade credits -6,467-2,313-4,153-1,178-1,613-659 1 723-2,726 2. Liabilities 22,682 9,217 13,465 1,674-3,371 4,873-1,296 2,411 4,291 FDI 8,46 4,137 3,8 4,648 2,339 3,176 776 797 11,735 - Equity 5,122 2,243 2,879 1,279 1,547 1,819 535 47 5,65 Foreign Portfolio investment 9,41 3,8 5,593-882 -5,664 2,583-958 2,145-2,775 - Equity security investment 598 63-32 -693-3,939-262 -1,721-3 -6,976 - Debt security investment 8,2 3,178 5,624-188 -1,725 2,845 763 2,55 4,21 Loans 5,24 1,5 3,6-1,726 943 439-357 349-352 Other Investments -4-38 34-366 -989-1,326-757 -8-4,317 - Trade credits 3,783 1,342 2,441-4 829-675 544-796 -588 Total Financial Flows (1+2) -12,429-9,868-2,562-3,654-9,489-4,194-1,942-334 -19,613 Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data Net Financial Flows
12 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% -1% % 1% -2% -3% Exchange Rate Movement end of Nov 18 compared to end of Oct 18 24 Dec 18 compared to end of Nov 18 Sources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and Bloomberg % p.a. 1% % (Positive values denote currency appreciation compared to USD) JPY MYR VND GBP EUR CNY TWD THB SGD KRW PHP INR IDR Index ( = ) Times NEER REER USDTHB 6 Dec 114.6 5 Nov 16.8 4 Dec 3.6 Dec 2 (Average data THB Appreciation until 24 Dec ) 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD) Latest data 24 Dec 3-Dec-16 24--17 15-Feb-17 8-Mar-17 29-Mar-17 24-Apr-17 17-May-17 7-Jun-17 28-Jun-17 2--17 11-Aug-17 4-Sep-17 25-Sep-17 17-Oct-17 9-Nov-17 3-Nov-17 25-Dec-17 17--18 7-Feb-18 28-Feb-18 22-Mar-18 17-Apr-18 9-May-18 31-May-18 21-Jun-18 12--18 6-Aug-18 28-Aug-18 18-Sep-18 9-Oct-18 1-Nov-18 22-Nov-18 17-Dec-18 21 211 212 Reserves/Short-term Debt 213 Q18 Q2 Q3 Nov E 3.2 Oct-18 Nov-18