Commodity Spotlight Base Metals

Commodity Research Commodity Spotlight Commodity Spotlight Base Metals Aluminium too much, too expensive Production cuts have been announced in recent months above all in China that have lent buoyancy to the aluminium price. So far, however, any capacities that were shut down have always been offset by new ones, with the result that Chinese production is on track to hit a record level. Because China is still exporting large quantities of aluminium, the global market also remains amply supplied. In our view a significant price correction is needed to restore the market balance. This year, aluminium has outperformed almost all the base metals, climbing by 14% so far. It cost a good $1,93 per ton on the London Metals Exchange (LME) at the end of July, and in spring was even trading close to the $2, per ton mark for a time. Since the beginning of the year, aluminium on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has risen almost exactly as steeply as on the LME (Chart 1). The price rise is not justified in our opinion as aluminium production has been expanded considerably for many months, above all in China, where the high prices make production attractive. According to the state Chinese research institute Antaike, the average production costs in China range between CNY 13, and CNY 13,5 per ton. Since the end of January, the aluminium price on the SHFE has continuously exceeded this level. What is more, production is also being artificially maintained at a high level, for example by subsidised electricity prices. The cost burden on aluminium producers was also eased last year by the depreciation of the Chinese currency, which contributed to lower production costs by international standards. According to data from the International Aluminium Institute, Chinese aluminium production reached 2.95 million tons in January, its highest level to date. June saw it nearly back at this level, and even achieving a new record figure on a daily basis (Chart 2, Page 2). Since China accounts for more than half of worldwide production, significantly more aluminium was also produced on a global level. Global aluminium production in the first half year was 6% up year-on-year. It is therefore on track to hit a new record high and on a whole-year basis is likely to exceed the 6 million ton mark for the first time. 28 Juli 217 Commerzbank Forecasts 217/18 Base metals Q3 Q4 Q1 Copper 575 56 57 Aluminium 1875 175 1775 Nickel 965 1 125 Lead 2225 22 2225 Zinc 2675 26 265 Tin 235 21 2125 Iron ore 58 55 57 US$ per mt Production looks set to continue growing in the medium to long term, too. After a power outage that resulted in low production rates for several months, the Portland smelter in Australia should soon be producing a good 22, tons more aluminium each year again in the near future. The US producer Alcoa plans to put its Warrick smelter in the US back into operation in 218 it had been shut down in spring 216 because of the low prices at the time. The plant allegedly produces over 16, tons of aluminium p.a. Aluminium Bahrain, one of the largest aluminium producers in the Middle East, intends by 219 to expand its CHART 1: Aluminium has risen noticeably in price so far this year 2 15 195 145 19 185 14 18 135 175 13 17 165 125 16 12 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 LME aluminium (USD per ton), left SHFE aluminium (CNY per ton), right For important disclosure information please see page 7. research.commerzbank.com / Bloomberg: CBKR / Research APP available Head of Commodity Research Eugen Weinberg, CFA +49 69 136 43417 eugen.weinberg@commerzbank.com Analyst Daniel Briesemann, CFA +49 69 136 29158 daniel.briesemann@commerzbank.com Analyst Carsten Fritsch +49 69 136 216 carsten.fritsch@commerzbank.com Analyst Dr. Michaela Kuhl +49 69 136 29363 michaela.kuhl@commerzbank.com Analyst Barbara Lambrecht +49 69 136 22295 barbara.lambrecht@commerzbank.com

annual production capacities by 5% to around 1.5 million tons. And in Russia, Rusal plans after years of suspended construction to complete its Taishet smelter by 22, which was halffinished in 29 (it has a production capacity of 43, tons p.a.). High overcapacities in China Chinese authorities taking action against aluminium smelters Robust and broad-based demand Too much aluminium is being produced in China, however. Antaike estimates that a good 1 million tons more aluminium were produced in the first half of 217 than the country needed itself. And even so, it is by no means the case that all production capacities are in operation or fully utilised. Antaike put capacities at a good 43 million tons p.a. as per the end of 216. As such, there were already overcapacities of more than 11 million tons p.a. even then. And capacities are set to be further expanded to 47 million tons p.a. by the end of 218. China is thus attempting to export large quantities of aluminium. According to data from the customs authorities, 2.41 million tons of aluminium and aluminium products were exported in the first half year, which is almost 6% more than in the same period last year (Chart 3). However, there is increasing opposition to the deluge of Chinese exports, especially in the US. US President Trump is considering imposing anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminium imports. Perhaps this is one reason why the authorities in China are now taking increasingly tough action against the aluminium smelters. According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, more than a quarter of the country s smelting capacities may be in violation of the state rules and regulations. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reported recently that smelters in the province of Xinjiang were inspected because they may have been built illegally after May 213. We do not know whether this has actually resulted in production closures, however. At the beginning of March, the Chinese government already ordered that aluminium production be scaled back for the duration of the heating season, which normally runs from November until March. This is an attempt to combat the serious air pollution in many of the country s cities. During the winter months, excessive amounts of coal are used to generate heat, thereby contributing to the air pollution. At the time, various media were speculating that production cuts of over 3% might ensue. In mid-july, a Chinese Internet portal wrote that the China Hongqiao Group Ltd., the country s largest aluminium producer, would be shutting down outdated production capacities amounting to 6, tons p.a. However, the company made it clear that the extent of the closures had not yet been decided and that the closure of outdated plants would be offset by new capacities. In our opinion it is questionable whether all this will result on balance in lower aluminium production. After all, new low-cost production capacities are being built at the same time (see above). The following example illustrates the situation: although the NDRC reports that production capacities of more than 1 million tons p.a. were closed down in the Chinese steel industry from early 216 to the end of May 217, steel production climbed to a record high in June. Global aluminium demand is very solid and broad-based. The main consumers of aluminium are the transport sector, the construction industry and the packaging sector. This is also unlikely to change much in the medium term. UC Rusal, one of the world s largest aluminium producers, also expects global aluminium demand to increase sharply in the next few years. By the year 221, UC Rusal puts this additional growth at 4-5% p.a. Thus aluminium shows the highest rates of demand growth of all the base metals. And this is not only the opinion of Rusal, which more or CHART 2: Record-high aluminium production in China (in thousand tons per day) 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Production World ex China Production China CHART 3: reflected in continuing high exports (monthly production and exports in thousand tons) 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Aluminium production, left 6 5 4 3 2 1 Aluminium exports, right Source: IAI, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research Source: IAI, Chinese customs authorities, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research 2 28 Juli 217

less has to broadcast such optimism for business reasons; many other market observers also share this view, at least on a short-term basis. According to data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, global aluminium demand has already climbed by 5.5% per year on average since the start of the millennium more than demand for any other base metal. Falling LME stocks only part of the truth Low physical premiums Speculative financial investors more reticent of late Price correction needed At first glance, the fact that LME aluminium stocks have now been declining for nearly three and a half years appears to confirm the picture of robust demand. However, we believe that the inventory reduction is due not only to real demand but also in part to financial transactions. Furthermore, to some extent it has simply been a question of stocks being reshuffled from LME to SHFE warehouses. For example, a good 35, tons of the 85, or so tons of LME stocks that have been reduced so far this year were presumably transferred to the SHFE s warehouse system (Chart 4). What is more, the exchange-registered aluminium stocks do not show the whole picture, as only a small part of the total aluminium stocks is kept in exchangeregistered warehouses. Worldwide above-ground aluminium stocks are estimated at around 14 million tons. This certainly does not suggest any shortage. The physical premiums in the leading consumer countries/regions are proof that the good demand is not sufficient at present to fully absorb the very plentiful supply. According to data from Metal Bulletin, premiums in Europe fell to $75 per ton at the beginning of the third quarter the lowest premium this year. The premium on the LME price in the US is at around $155 per ton, which is the lowest figure since November (Chart 5). And in Japan, the largest Asian importer of aluminium, producers and consumers agreed a few weeks ago on a premium of $118 per ton for the third quarter. Speculative financial investors on the LME meanwhile have withdrawn from aluminium again somewhat after having pulled the price up to a multi-year high well into March. This also explains why the price has been trading largely sideways ever since. Net long positions in the two categories we track (Money Managers and Index Traders/Broker Dealers) currently find themselves at their lowest level since the beginning of the year and correspond to the average since the data series began three years ago. If speculative financial investors were to withdraw any further, this would probably weigh on the aluminium price. If on the other hand they were to bet more heavily on rising prices again, this would presumably drive up the price. As we consider the global aluminium market to be well supplied, we believe that a price correction is needed. We expect the price to fall to below $1,8 per ton. In our opinion, higher prices would only be justifiable if production in China were to be scaled back to a major extent and exports reduced accordingly. CHART 4: Reshuffling of aluminium stocks (exchangeregistered stocks in thousand tons) CHART 5: Low physical premiums do not point to shortage on aluminium market (in USD per ton) 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 LME stocks, left SHFE stocks, right 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Europe USA Source: LME, SHFE, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research Source: Metal Bulletin, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research 28 Juli 217 3

At a glance TABLE 1: Our forecasts Current Yearly average Unit 28.7. Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 216 217 218 Copper US$/ton 6283 5857 5692 575 56 57 58 59 6 4871 57 585 USc/pound 285 266 258 261 254 259 263 268 272 221 259 265 Aluminium US$/ton 1933 1857 1914 1875 175 1775 18 1825 185 161 185 1825 USc/pound 88 84 87 85 79 81 82 83 84 73 84 83 Lead US$/ton 231 2282 217 2225 22 2225 225 2275 23 1874 2225 2275 USc/pound 14 13 98 11 1 11 12 13 14 85 11 13 Tin US$/ton 256 2 19833 235 21 2125 215 2175 22 17871 23 216 USc/pound 933 97 9 923 953 964 975 987 998 811 921 98 Zinc US$/ton 279 279 265 2675 26 265 27 2725 275 298 2675 27 USc/pound 127 127 118 121 118 12 122 124 125 95 121 122 Nickel US$/ton 11 1329 9282 965 1 125 125 15 15 9637 98 14 USc/pound 458 469 421 438 454 465 465 476 476 437 445 472 Iron ore US$/ton 66 84 63 58 55 57 58 59 6 57 65 59 Quarterly averages, 3months contracts (LME) (*previous day) TABLE 2: Inventories current 1 day 1 week 1 month 1 year 52 week high 52 week low Aluminium LME 1367875 -.3%.4% -3.7% -41% 2312275 13514 Aluminium Shanghai 454646-1.6% 5.% 24% 454646 72155 Copper LME 32125 -.4% -1.9% 2.6% 41% 379175 196425 Copper COMEX 17547.3% 1.4% 5.% 161% 17547 65416 Copper Shanghai 172774 - -4.9% -13.2% -1% 326732 97839 Lead LME 154475.2% -1.1% -9.4% -17% 196 154175 Lead Shanghai 54857 - -1.8% -26.4% 15% 83622 19115 Nickel LME 3768.% -.1%.4% % 3864 3696 Tin LME 295-1.4% -1.2% 19.7% -63% 5995 1635 Zinc LME 2663 -.1% -1.4% -11.2% -39% 45975 2642 Zinc Shanghai 72324 - -7.%.8% -66% 25488 64881 TABLE 3: History current Percentage change Historical development US$/mt 1 week 1 month ytd 1 year Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Aluminium 1933.9 1.9 14.1 2.1 1815 1791 1621 157 1515 1583 1633 179 Copper 6283 4.6 6.8 13.5 28.3 581 658 5266 4877 4666 4728 4794 5294 Nickel 11 6.1 9..8-5.6 1445 1397 1616 9458 854 8863 139 1834 Zinc 279 1.3 2. 8.3 26.5 292 2196 1851 1632 1682 1924 2256 2528 Lead 231 2.7.2 14.1 27.6 1821 1952 1727 1689 1739 1723 1881 2153 Tin 256 1.7 5.7-2.7 15.7 1846 15621 1518 1536 15373 16874 18567 2669 Iron ore 66 -.6 18.8-17.4 17. 63 57 54 46 47 54 57 68 TABLE 4: Upcoming events 31.7. / 31.8. CHN Manufacturing PMI, July / August 1.8. / 1.9. USA Manufacturing PMI, July / August 8.8. / 8.9. CHN Imports & Exports, July / August 14.8. / 14.9. CHN Industrial Production & Fixed Assets Investments, July / August 16.8. / 19.9. USA Housing Starts & Building Permits, July / August 17.8. / 15.9. USA Industrial Production, July / August 18.8. / 18.9. CHN Property Prices, July / August 25.8. / 27.9. USA Durable Goods Orders, July / August 4 28 Juli 217

CHART 6: Performance of base metals since January 212 CHART 7: Performance of base metals since January 27 2% 15% 1% 5% % 212 213 214 215 216 217 Zinc Nickel Aluminium Copper Tin Lead CHART 8: Forward curves of base metals 4% 3% 2% 1% % 27 29 211 213 215 217 Zinc Nickel Aluminium Copper Tin Lead CHART 9: Copper positioning of money managers (COMEX) 11 15 1 95 9 Aluminum Lead Nickel Copper Tin Zinc 6 M 1 J 18 M 2 J 3 M 3 J 42 M 4 J 12 ' contracts 12 9 1 6 8 3 6 4-3 2-6 26 28 21 212 214 216 Net long positions, left Copper (US$/mt), right CHART 1: Aluminium net imports China ( mt) 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 CHART 12: Nickel net imports China ( mt) 5 4 3 2 1-1 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research CHART 11: Copper net imports China ( mt) 5 4 3 2 1 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 CHART 13: Zinc net imports China ( mt) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 28 Juli 217 5

CHART 14: Lead net imports China ( mt) 4 3 2 1-1 -2 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 CHART 15: Tin net imports China ( mt) 5 4 3 2 1-1 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 CHART 16: Copper LME inventories CHART 17: Nickel LME inventories 7 12 5 35 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 8 6 4 4 3 2 1 3 25 2 15 1 28 21 212 214 216 2 28 21 212 214 216 5 LME Inventories (' mt), ls Copper (US$/mt), rs LME inventories (' mt), ls Nickel (US$/mt), rs CHART 18: Zinc LME inventories CHART 19: Tin LME inventories 14 35 3 35 12 1 8 6 4 2 3 25 2 15 25 2 15 1 5 3 25 2 15 1 28 21 212 214 216 1 28 21 212 214 216 5 LME inventories (' mt), ls Zinc (US$/mt), rs LME inventories (' mt), ls Tin (US$/mt), rs CHART 2: Aluminium LME inventories CHART 21: Lead LME inventories 6 5 4 3 2 1 28 21 212 214 216 35 3 25 2 15 1 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 28 21 212 214 216 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 LME inventories (' mt), ls Aluminium (US$/mt), rs LME inventories (' mt), ls Lead (US$/mt), rs 6 28 Juli 217

In accordance with ESMA MAR requirements this report was completed 28/7/217 8:57 CEST and disseminated 28/7/217 8:58 CEST. This document has been created and published by the Research department within the Corporate Clients division of Commerzbank AG, Frankfurt/Main or Commerzbank s branch offices mentioned in the document. Commerzbank AG is a provisionally registered swap dealer with the CFTC. If this report includes an analysis of one or more equity securities, please note that the author(s) certify that (a) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views; and (b) no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views expressed by them contained in this document. The research analyst(s) named on this report are not registered / qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such research analyst(s) may not be associated persons of Commerz Markets LLC and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. It has not been determined in advance whether and in what intervals this document will be updated. Unless otherwise stated current prices refer to the most recent trading day s closing price or spread which may fluctuate. Disclaimer This document is for information purposes only and does not take into account specific circumstances of any recipient. The information contained herein does not constitute the provision of investment advice. It is not intended to be and should not be construed as a recommendation, offer or solicitation to acquire, or dispose of, any of the financial instruments and/or securities mentioned in this document and will not form the basis or a part of any contract or commitment whatsoever. Investors should seek independent professional advice and draw their own conclusions regarding suitability of any transaction including the economic benefits, risks, legal, regulatory, credit, accounting and tax implications. The information in this document is based on public data obtained from sources believed by Commerzbank to be reliable and in good faith, but no representations, guarantees or warranties are made by Commerzbank with regard to accuracy, completeness or suitability of the data. Commerzbank has not performed any independent review or due diligence of publicly available information regarding an unaffiliated reference asset or index. The opinions and estimates contained herein reflect the current judgement of the author(s) on the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. The opinions do not necessarily correspond to the opinions of Commerzbank. Commerzbank does not have an obligation to update, modify or amend this document or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. This communication may contain trading ideas where Commerzbank may trade in such financial instruments with customers or other counterparties. Any prices provided herein (other than those that are identified as being historical) are indicative only, and do not represent firm quotes as to either size or price. The past performance of financial instruments is not indicative of future results. No assurance can be given that any financial instrument or issuer described herein would yield favourable investment results. Any forecasts or price targets shown for companies and/or securities discussed in this document may not be achieved due to multiple risk factors including without limitation market volatility, sector volatility, corporate actions, the unavailability of complete and accurate information and/or the subsequent transpiration that underlying assumptions made by Commerzbank or by other sources relied upon in the document were inapposite. Commerzbank and or its affiliates may act as a market maker in the instrument(s) and or its derivative that has been mentioned in our research reports. Employees of Commerzbank and or its affiliates may provide written or oral commentary, including trading strategies, to our clients and business units that may be contrary to the opinions conveyed in this research report. Commerzbank may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for issuers mentioned in research reports. Neither Commerzbank nor any of its respective directors, officers or employees accepts any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of or in any way connected with the use of all or any part of this document. Commerzbank may provide hyperlinks to websites of entities mentioned in this document, however the inclusion of a link does not imply that Commerzbank endorses, recommends or approves any material on the linked page or accessible from it. Commerzbank does not accept responsibility whatsoever for any such material, nor for any consequences of its use. This document is for the use of the addressees only and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the prior, written consent of Commerzbank. The manner of distributing this document may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries, including the United States. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves about and to observe such restrictions. By accepting this document, a recipient hereof agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations. Additional notes to readers in the following countries: Germany: Commerzbank AG is registered in the Commercial Register at Amtsgericht Frankfurt under the number HRB 32. Commerzbank AG is supervised by both the German regulator, Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin), Graurheindorfer Strasse 18, 53117 Bonn, Marie-Curie-Strasse 24-28, 6439 Frankfurt am Main and the European Central Bank, Sonnemannstrasse 2, 6314 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. United Kingdom: This document has been issued or approved for issue in the United Kingdom by Commerzbank AG London Branch. Commerzbank AG, London Branch is authorised by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin), and the European Central Bank and is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Details on the extent of our regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. This document is directed exclusively to eligible counterparties and professional clients. It is not directed to retail clients. No persons other than an eligible counterparty or a professional client should read or rely on any information in this document. Commerzbank AG, London Branch does not deal for or advise or otherwise offer any investment services to retail clients. United States: This document has been approved for distribution in the US under applicable US law by Commerz Markets LLC ( Commerz Markets ), a wholly owned subsidiary of Commerzbank AG and a US registered broker-dealer. Any securities transaction by US persons must be effected with Commerz Markets, and transaction in swaps with Commerzbank AG. Under applicable US law; information regarding clients of Commerz Markets may be distributed to other companies within the Commerzbank group. This research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to institutional investors and major U.S. institutional investors, as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Commerz Markets is a member of FINRA and SIPC. Any derivatives transaction with US persons must be effected in accordance with the provisions of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Canada: The information contained herein is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, a prospectus, an advertisement, a public offering, an offer to sell securities described herein, solicitation of an offer to buy securities described herein, in Canada or any province or territory thereof. Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements to file a prospectus with the relevant Canadian securities regulators and only by a dealer properly registered under applicable securities laws or, alternatively, pursuant to an exemption from the dealer registration requirement in the relevant province or territory of Canada in which such offer or sale is made. Under no circumstances is the information contained herein to be construed as investment advice in any province or territory of Canada and is not tailored to the needs of the recipient. In Canada, the information contained herein is intended solely for distribution to Permitted Clients (as such term is defined in National Instrument 31-13) with whom Commerz Markets LLC deals pursuant to the international dealer exemption. To the extent that the information contained herein references securities of an issuer incorporated, formed or created under the laws of Canada or a province or territory of Canada, any trades in such securities may not be conducted through Commerz Markets LLC. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed upon these materials, the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein and any representation to the contrary is an offence. European Economic Area: Where this document has been produced by a legal entity outside of the EEA, the document has been re-issued by Commerzbank AG, London Branch for distribution into the EEA. Singapore: This document is furnished in Singapore by Commerzbank AG, Singapore branch. It may only be received in Singapore by an institutional investor or an accredited investor as respectively defined in section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore ( SFA ) pursuant to section 274 or section 275 (as applicable) of the SFA. Nothing in this document constitutes accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, financial or other advice and/or recommendations to the recipient of this communication. Further, the communication/information provided herein does not constitute a financial advisory service within the meaning of the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 11 of Singapore ( FAA ) and therefore, the regulatory requirements and duties that may be owed to a client pursuant to or in connection with the FAA are not applicable to the recipient in connection with this communication. Recipients are advised to seek independent advice from their own professional advisers about the information discussed herein. 28. Juli 217 7

Hong Kong: This document is furnished in Hong Kong by Commerzbank AG, Hong Kong Branch, and may only be received in Hong Kong by professional investors within the meaning of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap.571) of Hong Kong and any rules made there under, and persons whose ordinary business is to buy or sell shares or debentures. Japan: This information and its distribution do not constitute and should not be construed as a "solicitation" under the Financial Instrument Exchange Act (FIEA). This information may be distributed from Commerzbank international branches outside Japan solely to "professional investors" as defined in Section 2(31) of the FIEA and Section 23 of the Cabinet Ordinance Regarding Definition of Section 2 of the FIEA. Please note that Commerzbank AG, Tokyo Branch has not participated in its preparation. Not all financial or other instruments referred to in this information are available within Japan. You should contact the Corporate Clients division of Commerzbank AG for inquiries on availability of such instruments. Australia: Commerzbank AG does not hold an Australian financial services licence. This document is being distributed in Australia to wholesale customers pursuant to an Australian financial services licence exemption for Commerzbank AG under Class Order 4/1313. Commerzbank AG is regulated by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) under the laws of Germany which differ from Australian laws. People s Republic of China (PRC): This document is furnished by Commerzbank AG and is only intended for institutions that are eligible for financial transactions. No-one else may rely on any information contained within this document. Any derivative transactions by PRC persons may only be entered into by PRC financial institutions which are permitted to conduct derivatives business in the PRC and have obtained all necessary regulatory approvals in the PRC. Commerzbank AG 217. All rights reserved. Version 9.27 Commerzbank Corporate Clients Frankfurt Commerzbank AG London Commerzbank AG New York Commerz Markets LLC Singapore Commerzbank AG Hong Kong Commerzbank AG DLZ - Gebäude 2, Händlerhaus Mainzer Landstraße 153 6327 Frankfurt PO BOX 52715 3 Gresham Street London, EC2P 2XY 225 Liberty Street, 32nd floor, New York, NY 1281-15 71, Robinson Road, #12-1 Singapore 68895 15th Floor, Lee Garden One 33 Hysan Avenue, Causeway Bay Hong Kong Tel: + 49 69 136 212 Tel: + 44 27 623 8 Tel: + 1 212 73 4 Tel: +65 631 1 Tel: +852 3988 988 8 28 Juli 217