Macroprudential indicators of the financial sector June Macroeconomic risk indicators... Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in selected economies... Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in selected economies... Consumer confidence indicators in the United States... Economic sentiment indicators in the euro area... Unemployment rates in selected economies... 6 Consumer price inflation in selected economies... 7 Industrial production indices in selected economies... 8 Retail sales indices in selected economies... 9 General government balances of EU countries in... Gross government debt of EU countries in. quarter of... Financial market risk indicators... Price commodity indices... Exchange rate indices... Equity indices... Share price indices of the parent banks of the largest domestic banks... Yield curve slopes in selected economies... 6 Volatility of equity indices... 7 CDS spread indices... 8 CDSs of the parent banks of the largest Slovak banks... 9 -month rates and the OIS spread... 6 Inflation-linked swap prices... 6 Credit spreads on -year government bonds issued by stressed countries... 6 Credit spreads on -year government bonds issued by selected central European countries and Germany... 6 Corporate credit risk indicators... 6 Exports and the business environment... 6 Exports and corporate sales... 6 Sales in selected sectors compared with their level for the period 6/7 to 6/8... 7 6 Corporate loans and sales... 7 7 Interest rate spreads on new loans to enterprises... 7
8 Non-performing loans and default rates... 7 9 Commercial real estate: prices (EUR/m ) and vacancy rates in the office segment... 7 Commercial real estate: sales of the new apartments in the residential segment... 7 Comparison of corporate balance sheets and sales... 8 Liabilities of non-financial corporations... 8 Household credit risk indicators... 8 Household indebtedness in Slovakia and in selected countries... 8 Changes in household financial assets... 8 Changes in the number of unemployed by income category... 8 6 Index of employment in selected sectors... 8 7 Expected employment in selected sectors... 9 8 Index of real wages in selected sectors... 9 9 The consumer confidence index and its components... 9 Non-performing household loans... 9 Loan-to-value (LTV) ratio... 9 Housing affordability index... 9 Market risk and liquidity risk indicators... Value at Risk for investments in different types of financial instruments... Loan-to-deposit ratio... Liquid asset ratio... General notes: The formulation 'index: December = ' means that the given index was set in such a way that its value as at that date ( December ) was.
.7 6.7.7.8 9.8.9 7.9.9... 8.. 6... 9.. 7... 7.... 7.... 7.... 7.... 7..8.8 9.8.9.9 9.9.. 9... 9... 9... 9....7 6.7.7.8 9.8.9 7.9.9... 8.. 6... 9.. 7..7 6.7.7.8 9.8.9 7.9.9... 8.. 6... 9.. 7..7 6.7.7.8 9.8.9 7.9.9... 8.. 6... 9.. 7. Macroeconomic risk indicators Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in selected economies 6 6 Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in selected economies 6 6 Euro area United States China Euro area United States Source: Bloomberg. Notes: PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing or service sector: an index value of more than represents expansion, while a value of below represents contraction. Consumer confidence indicators in the United States 8 6 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Source: Bloomberg. Notes: The chart refers to US consumer confidence indices produced by two different institutions. Unemployment rates in selected economies (%) 9 7 Source: Bloomberg. Notes: PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing or service sector: an index value of more than represents expansion, while a value of below represents contraction. Economic sentiment indicators in the Euro area 9 8 7 6 ESI ZEW (right-hand scale) Source: Bloomberg. Notes: ESI is the economic sentiment indicator compiled by the European Commission. ZEW represents the economic sentiment indicator compiled by a private company ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung). 6 Consumer price inflation in selected economies (%) 8 6 - - -6-8 - Euro area United States Slovakia Source: Eurostat, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Notes: Seasonally adjusted. Euro area United States Slovakia Source: Eurostat, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Notes: Year-on-year percentage changes in the consumer price indices.
Greece Italy Portugal Ireland Cyprus Belgium Spain France Euro area UK Hungary Germany Austria Netherlands Malta Slovenia Croatia Poland Finland Slovakia Czech Republic Denmark Sweden Lithuania Romania Latvia Luxembourg Bulgaria Estonia Slovenia Greece Ireland Spain UK Cyprus Portugal Croatia France Poland Euro area Italy Slovakia Malta Belgium Netherlands Romania Lithuania Hungary Finland Czech Republic Austria Bulgaria Sweden Latvia Denmark Estonia Germany Luxembourg.7 6.7.7.8 9.8.9 7.9.9... 8.. 6... 9...7 6.7.7.8 9.8.9 7.9.9... 8.. 6... 9.. 7 Industrial production indices in selected economies 9 8 8 Retail sales indices in selected economies 9 9 Euro area United States Slovakia Germany Source: Eurostat, US Federal Reserve. Notes: Rebalanced (average: 7 = ). Seasonally adjusted. 9 General government balances of EU countries in (%) Euro area United States Slovakia Germany Source: Eurostat, US Department of Commerce. Notes: Rebalanced (average 7 = ). Seasonally adjusted. Gross government debt of EU countries in. quarter of (%) - - - -7-9 - - - 8 6 8 6 Source: Eurostat. Notes: Balance expressed as a percentage of GDP. Source: Eurostat. Notes: Percentage shares of GDP. Financial market risk indicators Price commodity indices ( December = ),6,,,8,6,,..7..8..9.......... Brent oil price index Gold price index Exchange rate indices ( December = ),,,,9,8 USD / EUR HUF / EUR CZK / EUR PLN / EUR,7..7..8..9..........
Equity indices ( December = ) Share price indices of the parent banks of the largest domestic banks ( December = ), EUROSTOXX NIKKEI S&P,, UniCredit KBC Erste Bank RZB Intesa,,..7..8..9.................... Yield curve slopes in selected economies (p. p.) 6 Volatility of equity indices 8 6 VIX VSTOXX - Germany -..7..8..9.......... Notes: The yield curve slope is expressed as the difference between the yield to maturity on -year and -month government bonds. p. p. percentage points..8..9.......... Source: Bloomberg. 7 CDS spread indices (b. p.) 8 CDSs of the parent banks of the largest Slovak banks (b. p.)..7..8..9.......... Notes: b. p. basis points itraxx Europe Y itraxx Senior Financials Y 7 6..7..8..9.......... Notes: b. p. basis points Max. min. CDS spreads of parent banks itraxx Senior Financials Y
-8 6-9 -9 6- - 6- - 6- - 6- - 6-9 -month rates and the OIS spread (%, p. p.) Inflation-linked swap prices (p. p.) 6 OIS Spread -month EURIBOR -month OIS -..7..8..9.......... Notes: p.p. percentage points Credit spreads on -year government bonds issued by stressed countries (p. p.) -year swaps linked to euro area inflation -year swaps linked to United States inflation -year swap linked to euro area inflation -year swap linked to US inflation -6..7..8..9.......... Notes: Inflation-linked swaps are swap transactions in which one counterparty pays a fixed rate (a swap price) and the other pays a rate corresponding to the return on a selected price index. The inflation-linked swap price is calculated on a non-coupon basis. p.p. percentage points Credit spreads on -year government bonds issued by selected central European countries and Germany (p. p.) Ireland Italy Spain Portugal Greece (right-hand scale) Notes: The vertical scales shows percentage differences between yields on -year bonds issued by the different countries and -year OIS rates, representing a -year interest rate on high-rated bonds. p. p. percentage points 6 - Slovakia Czech Republic Poland Germany -..7..8..9.......... Notes: The Chart shows percentage differences between yields on -year government bonds denominated in the domestic currencies of the countries and -year swap rates for the respective currencies. p. p. percentage points Corporate credit risk indicators Exports and the business environment Exports and corporate sales (%) % % % % 9 8 7 Business sentiment Slovakia (left-hand scale) Business sentiment main trading partners (left-hand scale) ESI according to the SO SR (left-hand scale) Exports annual rate of change (right-hand scale) % -% -% -% -% -8 6-9 -9 6- - 6- - 6- - 6- - 6- - Exports year-on-year rate of change Sales in total year-on-year rate of change - Source: NBS, OECD, Statistics Office of the SR. Notes: ESI Economic Sentiment Indicator. Source: Ministry of Economy of SR, NBS, OECD, Statistical Office of the SR.
.9 6.9 9.9.9. 6. 9... 6. 9... 6. 9... 6. 9... 6..9 6.9 9.9.9. 6. 9... 6. 9... 6. 9... 6. 9... 6. Sales in selected sectors compared with their level for the period 6/7 to 6/8 (%), 6 Corporate loans and sales (%),7, Corporate sector in total, Industry Construction Trade and motor vehicles sales Hotels and restaurants -8-9 - - - - Source: Statistical Office of the SR. -8 6-9 -9 6- - 6- - 6- - 6- - 6- - - Total sales year-on-year rate of change Year-on-year growth in corporate loans by domestic banks - Source: NBS, Statistical Office of the SR. 7 Interest rate spreads on new loans to enterprises (%) 8 Non-performing loans and default rates 6 % 8% 6% % % - -9 6- - 6- - 6- - 6- - 6- EURIBOR M Loans of up to and including. million Loans of more than. million, up to and including million Loans of more than million Source: NBS, European Banking Federation. Notes: The spread is defined as the difference between the monthly EURIBOR rate and the average rate on new loans in the respective category. 9 Commercial real estate: prices (EUR/m ) and vacancy rates in the office segment % -6-7 -8-9 - - - - Monthly change in the outstanding amount of non-performing loans (right-hand scale) Default rates (amount of loans) Default rates (number of loans) Ratio of non-performing loans Notes: Data on the right-hand scale are in EUR mil. Default rates refer to the number/volume of loans re-categorised as defaulted to the number/volume of non-defaulted loans at the beginning of the period under review. Commercial real estate: sales of the new apartments in the residential segment - Price per m / month inner centre (left-hand scale) Price per m / month outer centre (left-hand scale) Price per m / month outside centre (left-hand scale) Office vacancy rate inner centre (right-hand scale) Office vacancy rate outer centre (right-hand scale) Office vacancy rate outside centre (right-hand scale) Source: CBRE, NBS. Notes: The chart plots prices and vacancy rates in Bratislava. % % % % % 8 6 - - Source: Lexxus, NBS. Number of apartments whose sale fell through (left-hand scale) Number of apartments sold (left-hand scale) Net apartment sales (left-hand scale) Number of projects with positive net apartment sales (right-hand scale) 8% 7% 6% % % % % % %
I.8 VIII.8 III.9 X.9 V. XII. VII. II. IX. IV. XI. VI. VII.8 II.9 IX.9 IV. XI. VI. I. VIII. III. X. I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. Q Q Q Q 6Q 6Q 7Q 7Q 8Q 8Q 9Q 9Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Comparison of corporate balance sheets and sales % % % % % % %.7.8.9.... Ratio of domestic bank loans to sales Source: NBS, Statistical Office of the SR. Ratio of domestic bank loans (excl. loans for commercial property) to sales Ratio of external funding to annual sales Liabilities of non-financial corporations % % % % % %...6.7.8.9.... External funding as a share of total corporate liabilities Funds from the rest of the world as a share of total corporate liabilities Household credit risk indicators Household indebtedness in Slovakia and in selected countries (%) 8 6 999 6 7 8 9 Belgium Czech Republic Germany Spain Hungary Austria Poland Slovakia Euro area (7 countries) Source: Eurostat. Note: The ratio of total debt of households to disposable income. Changes in the number of unemployed by income category 8 6 Inflow of job seekers Number of job seekers 9 8 7 6 Changes in household financial assets - Currency and deposits Shares and other equity Insurance technical provisions Ratio of financial assets to financial liabilities (right-hand scale) Currency and deposits as a share of financial assets (right-hand scale) Note: Data on the left-hand scale refer to month-on-month changes in EUR mil. 6 Index of employment in selected sectors,,, 9, 9, 8, 8,,8,7,6,,,,,, Higher-income category Medium-income category Lower-income category Source: Central Office of Labour, Social Affairs and Family. Notes: Left-hand and right-hand scales: numbers of job seekers in thousands. Household income categories a categorisation based on the KZAM employment classification and KZAM income data; it consists of three categories: higher-income category (income of over 8 per month) legislators, senior officials and managers, scientists, professionals, technicians, health professionals, and teaching professionals; middle-income category (income between 6 and 8 per month) office workers, craft and skilled workers, processors, and plant and machinery operators; lower-income category (income of up to 6) service and retail workers, agricultural and forestry workers, auxiliary and unskilled workers. Manufacturing Wholesale trade Accommodation Source: Statistical Office of the SR. Notes: Year-on-year changes. Construction Retail trade Transportation and storage
I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. I.9 III.9 V.9 VII.9 IX.9 XI.9 I. III. V. VII. IX. XI. I. III. V. VII. IX. XI. I. III. V. VII. IX. XI. I. III. V. VII. IX. XI. I. III. V. I.8 IV.8 VII.8 X.8 I.9 IV.9 VII.9 X.9 I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. VII. I.8 V.8 IX.8 I.9 V.9 IX.9 I. V. IX. I. V. IX. I. V. IX. I. V. IX. I. V. I.9 IV.9 VII.9 X.9 I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. VII. X. I. IV. 7 Expected employment in selected sectors 8 Index of real wages in selected sectors - - - - - -6 Services Industry Trade Construction Source: Statistical Office of the SR. Notes: Index data. 9 The consumer confidence index and its components 8 6 - - -6 Source: Statistical Office of the SR. Consumer confidence index Expected financial situation of households Expected economic situation in Slovakia Expected unemployment Expected household savings 9 9 8 HICP (right-hand scale) Industry Construction Wholesale trade except for motor vehicles Retail trade except for motor vehicles Source: Statistical Office of the SR. Notes: HICP - Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, change on the same period of the previous year. Non-performing household loans (%) (EUR mil.) 6 8 6 - - -6-8 Interquartile range Weighted average Month-on-month changes in the amount of NPLs (right-hand scale) Notes: Left-hand scale: ratio of non-performing household loans to total household loans. 6 98 Loan-to-value (LTV) ratio (%) Housing affordability index 9 8 7 6 Interquartile range Banks in total Large banks Notes: Loan-to-value ratio is the loan value divided by the value of the loan collateral....6.7.8.9.... Housing affordability index (constant LTV) Housing affordability index (variable LTV) Source: NBS, Statistical Office of the SR. Notes: Housing affordability index is an index representing the ratio of disposable income to loan instalments. The calculation of disposable income takes into account the average wage and average expenditure of households; the calculation of the instalment amount takes into account the average apartment price, average interest rate, average maturity, and a constant LTV ratio (7%). The calculation methodology for the housing affordability index is set out in the following paper: Rychtárik, Š., Krčmár, M. (), Vývoj na trhu úverov na bývanie a jeho interpretácia (Developments in the housing loan market and their interpretation), Nehnuteľnosti a bývanie (Real Estate and Housing), Vol. no, Bratislava,.
Market risk and liquidity risk indicators Value at Risk for investments in different types of financial instruments (%) Open position in USD -year euro-denominated bonds Equity investments (EUROSTOXX index)..7..8..9.......... Notes: The data represent the loss (as a percentage of the given investment) that would be expected over a period of days at a confidence level of 99%. This loss was determined on the basis of a risk factor volatility calculation, using exponentially weighted moving averages. Loan-to-deposit ratio (%) Liquid asset ratio,,,, I. I. I.6 I.7 I.8 I.9 I. I. I. I. I. Notes: ARDAL Debt and Liquidity Management Agency. Loan-to-deposit ratio (excluding ARDAL deposits and mortgage bonds issued) Loan-to-deposit ratio (including ARDAL deposits and excluding mortgage bonds issued) Loan-to-deposit ratio (including ARDAL deposits and mortgage bonds issued) Loan-to-deposit ratio (retail),, Interquartile range, Median - banking sector, Weighted average XII.9 VI. XII. VI. XII. VI. XII. VI. XII. VI. Source: NBS