Allen County Insight January 213 A summary of economic events, data, and trends published by the On the web: www.ipfw.edu/cri In this Issue Focus on... Labor Force Labor Participation Rate Occupations of the Unemployed Introduction In this issue, the quarterly focus is on the local labor force. The Director s Corner offers insight on the recent release on the best-performing cities from the Milken Institute. This newsletter is also available on our website: http://new.ipfw.edu/centers/cri/reports. Allen County Labor Force Workforce Educational Attainment 19, Allen County Labor Force Age Group Data Intial and Continuing Unemployment Claims 185, 18, 175, 17, Also... 165, Employment Recap 16, 155, Business Events From the Director 15, 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 Discussion of the recent Milken Best-Performing Cities Report Allen County Insight is brought to you by The Community Research Institute at IPFW with the support of the Allen County Commissioners The Labor Force is defined as those age 16 and over currently employed or actively looking for a job. Note that the unemployment rate is calculated using this data series. The labor participation rate is the percent of the population age 16 and over who are in the labor force. The recession and the aging of the population have contributed to a lower participation rate; nationally, the 212 rate was the lowest since 1979. 72% 7% 68% 66% 64% 62% 6% 7.8% 67.2% 67.1% Labor Participation Rate 7.7% 68.5% 66.% 65.7% 58% 2 25 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS and U.S. Census Bureau, ACS Allen County IN US 62.5% 211 64.1% We have always found it interesting that this area has a higher labor participation rate than other areas. Some years ago, Dr. Thomas Guthrie offered his opinion that there may be a connection between lower pay in the area and therefore a need for additional jobs through parttime work or more persons in a household working. Given the recurring observations concerning low wages, there may indeed may a connection.
Employment and Unemployment by Sector As shown in the following chart, workers from some industries are experiencing more unemployment than others. For example, manufacturing employees in Allen County make up 14.4 percent of the employee base, but 23.1 percent of the unemployed come from the manufacturing ranks (excluding those for which there is no prior employment or the prior occupation is unknown). In Allen County, there are large variances between sector employment and unemployment within these sectors, notably in manufacturing, construction, health care, and government (with these latter two resulting in the opposite observation-the percent of the unemployed is far less than the employed). Manufacturing Retail Trade Construction Health Care & Social Assistance Accommodation & Food Service Administrative & Support & Waste Management (1) Finance and Insurance Transportation & Warehousing Other Services (except Public Administration) Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Wholesale Trade Government (3) Educational Services (Private) Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Information Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Utilities Management of Companies and Enterprises Percent of Allen County Employment and Unemployment by Sector Sorted by Sector of the Unemployed Percent of Employed Percent of Unemployed: Industry of Prior Employment % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% Source: EMSI Notes: 1. Administrative and Support and Waste Management represents almost 7 percent of all Allen County jobs in 212, and over 5% of these jobs were temporary help jobs or through PEO in Allen County in 212. 2. Not shown in the chart above is the percent of the unemployed who have no prior work experience or did not disclose it. Over 15 percent of the unemployed in Allen County in 212 were in this category. 3. Government includes public education. Allen County Workforce and Educational Attainment In Allen County, the percent of the population with any type of degree (associates and above) is the same as the national level (36.3 percent), although the county has a higher percentage of associate s degree and fewer bachelor and above degrees. Allen also has a higher percentage of the population with either some college or no degree with 24.4 percent of the adult population compared to 2.9 percent at the state level. It is unfortunate that we do not have more information on this 24.4 percent. Are these college dropouts or persons who attended college to gain specific knowledge necessary to obtain an industry certification? Data is simply not available at this level. When reviewed by employment status, two important points regarding education and employment stand out: the more education, the more likely one is in the labor force, and of those in labor force, those with more education have a lower unemployment rate-see table. Less than high school graduate: United States Indiana Allen County In Labor Force 6.9% 56.9% 63.5% Unemployed 15.6% 18.6% 18.6% High school graduate: In Labor Force 73.6% 75.8% 76.2% Unemployed 11.% 1.4% 1.3% Some college or associate s degree: In Labor Force 79.4% 81.2% 8.6% Unemployed 8.8% 8.6% 9.3% Bachelor s degree or higher: In Labor Force 85.8% 87.2% 87.3% Unemployed 4.6% 3.2% 2.5% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 211 ACS 1 Year Estimate
Workforce by Age Group The following charts summarize workforce data by age groups in Allen County. Jobs (not the count of employed workers) are represented, and the data does not include self-employed workers or independent contractors. Percent of Workforce by Age Group 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Unemployment Claims 14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, QWI 211 Average Monthly Pay by Age Group $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, $ 14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Participation Rate by Age Group A final look at our labor force attempts to identify the unemployed who receive claims and those who do not. This newsletter regularly reports data on initial claims filed which serves as an indicator or as a comparison to previous years, but there are other unemployment benefits such as continued claims, extended benefits, and emergency benefits, as shown in chart A. The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides data on those in the workforce who are unemployed, but how many of these people are not receiving benefits? Some have not been eligible, not filed, or exhausted their unemployment benefits. Although data is not precise since unemployment programs have been adjusted in these past five years, it appears that the number of people in the labor force who no longer claim unemployment benefits has increased by 4 percent since 28 (see trend line in Chart B below). In 28 and 29, approximately 5, unemployed persons did not receive benefits. In 211 and 212, that average was 7,. 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Chart A 12, Unemployment Claims in Allen County Selected Weeks Chart B 25, Comparison of Claims Data and Unemployed Estimates 1, 2, 8, 15, 6, 4, 1, 2, 5, 28 29 21 211 212 Initial Continued Emergency Extended Source: Indiana Department of Workforce Development 28 29 BLS Unemploment Est. Weekly Total Claims 21 211 212 Difference between Claims and BLS Linear (Difference between Claims and BLS) Sources: Indiana Department of Workforce Development and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS
Allen County at a Glance Employment, Unemployment, and Labor Force 19, 185, 18, 175, 17, 165, MSA Employment in thousands Fort Wayne MSA NonFarm Payroll Employment 225 2 Not Seasonally Adjusted 195 Seasonally Adjusted 19 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES 22 215 21 25 2 195 Allen County Payroll Employment Allen County, NSA Allen County, SA 16, 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW MSA Employment in thousands 22 215 21 25 Fort Wayne MSA Annual Employment 19 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212* Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES *212 is average of Jan-Nov As in prior editions, both the county employment and MSA employment are shown to fully illustrate employment, although these two sources have differences in who is included as employed. The MSA data is available on a timelier basis (through November, compared to June for the county data). Allen County represents approximately 89 percent of the MSA employment. Wages and Income Average Annual Wage (BLS-QCEW) Average Annual Wage (EMSI, 212) 211 212 (P) Dec 212 Allen County 9.1 7.8 7.9 FW MSA 9. 7.7 7.9 Indiana 9. 8.2 8.5 U.S. 8.9 8.1 7.6 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS Note: Data is not seasonally adjusted. Unemployment Rates Per Capita Personal Income (BEA) Median Household Income (Census- ACS) Allen County $39,535 $4,61 $35,199 $47,426 Indiana $4,248 $4,689 $35,689 $46,438 U.S. $48,4 $48,527 $41,56 $5,52 Note: All data is for 211 unless noted otherwise. Preliminary 212 annual unemployment data from Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), a federal-state cooperative program which produces monthly estimates of labor force and unemployment data, were released recently and are summarized here. Allen County increased its labor force by almost 3, (1.6 percent increase from 211) while the labor force declined in the state by almost 14, (-.4 percent). Annual Initial Unemployment Claims Filed 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 28 29 21 211 Source: Indiana Department of Workforce Development 175, 17, 165, 16, 155, 32,355 34,757 2,46 2,869 2,724 Allen County Annual Labor Force 212 15, 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212p Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS
Allen County Business Dynamics- 4 th Quarter A quarterly review of events occurring with the business establishments in Allen County Note: The annual report for 212 will be released by the Northeast Indiana Regional Partnership, expected release date is February 213. There were no announced closings or downsizings for the period, although Lincoln Foodservice will be closing all manufacturing operations in 213, and keeping a small service staff in Allen County. The CRI Business Dynamics reports events in the quarter in which they occur, not announced. All of the events listed to the right for the fourth quarter are expansions. In contrast, the 4th quarter summary for 211 included one closure and three downsizings which affected 369 jobs, In addition, there were seven expansion events for 171 jobs and $279 million in investment activity. Note: CRI does not track changes in some sectors such as retail, restaurant, accommodations, or small services. Business dynamics data is continously revised and updated. Company People/Jobs Investment in Millions Parkview Hospital 2 Vibra Hospital of Fort Wayne 1 Glaze Tool and Engineering 3.185 States Engineering 4.325 Phoenix America Inc. 1.265 Old Dominion Freight Line 38 5.8 DOWCO 18.52 Tippmann Sports 5 Sweetwater Sound 316 23.6 Press-Seal Gasket Corporation 5.92 The Spinach Ball Company Unknown Precise Manufacturing, Inc..75 Parco Inc. 6 Unknown Total 396 35.365 Director s Corner Fort Wayne Metro Area Ranking Jumps up on Milken Institute s Index of Best-Performing Cities Each year the Milken Institute, an economic think-tank located in California, tracks and ranks the performance of the 2 largest metropolitan areas in the United States. Their overall performance ranking is based on a ninecomponent index that measures growth in jobs, in wages and salaries, and in technology output over a five-year span. This longer-term view allows for a smoothing out of the extreme variations that can come with business cycles. The index also incorporates measures of shorter term economic performance by including jobs, technology and wage data for the 29-1, 21-11 and for the May, 211 to May, 212 periods. The most recent report, Best-Performing Cities 212: Where America s Jobs are Created and Sustained, was released in mid- January and it contains positive affirmation that the Fort Wayne metropolitan area has been a leading region in the economic recovery from the Great Recession. Our area moved up to the 59 th best ranking of the 2 largest metro areas. Last year the Fort Wayne MSA was ranked 127 th out of 2. In fact, we have been experiencing a steady climb in this ranking over the past decade. As can be seen in the figure below, the Fort Wayne MSA ranked as low as 191 st in both 23 and 24. 2 15 1 191 Fort Wayne MSA Milken Best-Performing Cities Rankings 191 175 165 169 152 143 127 5 59 23 24 25 26* 27 28 29 21 211 212 Source: Milken Institute, Best-Performing Cities *Note: There was no report in 26. 1 The Fort Wayne MSA includes Allen, Wells and Whitley counties.
Among the index components for which the Fort Wayne MSA scored well was job growth between May, 211 and May, 212. The Fort Wayne MSA ranked 13th among the 2 largest metro areas. This continues the pattern of strong post-recession job growth as last year the Fort Wayne MSA ranked 7 th best on this component. We can utilize data from Economic Modeling Specialists Inc (EMSI) to help understand which sectors of the Fort Wayne MSA economy were driving this employment growth. Reviewing sector employment from 21 to 212, total non-farm employment in the MSA grew by 12,5. The Health Services sector grew by 2,5 employees, and the Professional and Business Services (which includes temporary employees) contributed 1,9 of the additional employment of the two-year growth. Other leading sectors included Transportation and Warehousing, and the Leisure and Hospitality sector, both contributing 1,6; and Retail Trade with 1,4. After solid increases in 21 and 211, the manufacturing sector has been essentially level in 212 from its 211 employment. The 21-11 employment increase in manufacturing really contributed to the gains witnessed in other sectors in 212. The Fort Wayne MSA also performed well on the Milken Institute s Relative Five-Year High-Tech Gross Domestic Product Growth component ranking 15 th best of the 2 MSAs. This component of the Best-Performing Cities index measures the high-tech sector output growth relative to the United States average between 26 and 211. The Fort Wayne MSA scored at 114.74 (U.S. average = 1). This is up substantially from the 211 index score of 13.41. As has been the case with other measures of economic vitality, the Milken Institute s index does point to wage and salary growth as an area of weakness for the Fort Wayne MSA economy. The 212 index ranks our MSA 169 th out of 2 on five-year wage and salary growth and 75 th on one-year wage and salary growth. Both rankings are improvements from last year, when the Fort Wayne MSA was 185 th out of 2 on the longer-term term wage and salary growth component and 151 st on the shorter-term wage and salary component. For the past several years, the has been comparing the Fort Wayne MSA s economic performance with that of fourteen other Midwestern metropolitan areas. These comparison communities are generally of similar size to the Fort Wayne area but do represent a variety of differing business sector mixes. All fourteen are included in the Milken Institute s 2 largest metro areas and are ranked in the Best-Performing Cities 212 report. Of the fourteen, only Nashville and Indianapolis ranked above Fort Wayne in the 212 Index Knoxville at 27 th and Indianapolis at 51 st ). This is a substantial improvement from a decade ago when the Fort Wayne MSA ranked above only the Toledo and Rockford MSAs among the fourteen comparison communities. Rankings such as the Milken Institute s Best-Performing Cities Index are highly dependent upon the criteria and weighting used in their index. A given community s ranking also may vary widely from year to year given the significant importance placed on several categories of oneyear data. However, the Fort Wayne MSAs continued improvement, virtually year-after-year, is very encouraging. It is an important indicator for local policy-makers and should gain additional attention from outside observers tracking the performance Nashville, TN 27 Indianapolis, IN Fort Wayne, IN Peoria, IL Madison, WI Des Moines, IA Chattanooga, TN-GA Grand Rapids, MI Evansville, IN-KY Rockford, IL Dayton, OH Lexington, KY South Bend, IN-MI Toledo, OH Kalamazoo, MI Milken 212 Best-Performing Cities Fort Wayne MSA and Comparison Communities 51 59 62 71 5 1 15 2 Source: Milken Institute, Best-Performing Cities of regional economies across the United States. The full Milken Institute 212 Best-Performing Cities report and additional supporting information can be found at http://bestcities.milkeninstitute.org/best-performing-cities-212-large.html. 72 8 1 11 115 117 137 153 18 185