Alan Bush December 27, 2018 STOCK INDEX FUTURES Financial Forecast Yesterday s sharp gains were probably due to the growing belief that the Federal Open Market Committee may not be in a position to hike its fed funds rate in 2019. In addition, there was late afternoon news that China and the U.S. made plans for face-toface trade discussions in January, according to the Chinese commerce ministry. The U.S. government partial shutdown is keeping investors nervous. President Trump on Tuesday said the partial shutdown of the federal government was going to continue until his demand for funds to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border is met. The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits fell slightly last week to near a 49 year low. Initial claims dropped 1,000 to 216,000 for the week ended December 22. Economists had forecast claims to be 217,000 in the latest week. The 9:00 central time December consumer confidence report is expected to be 134. It may take a while, but downward pressure on interest rates globally, of course not from the Fed in the short term, will ultimately rescue this market. It is better to trade other markets where the fundamentals are more lined up in the same direction, as is the case for gold and the thirty year Treasury bond futures. CURRENCY FUTURES The U.S. dollar is lower, as interest rate diffential expectations are turning a bit more against the greenback.
The European Central Bank said the global economy is set to slow down in 2019 and then stabilize, although the central bank still expects prices to rise. The ECB said Global inflationary pressures are expected to rise slowly as spare capacity diminishes. The flight to quality currencies, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are higher in light of lower stock index futures. INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES Futures are higher, led by the thirty year Treasury bond futures, as the equity markets lose momentum. The Treasury will auction seven year notes today. In spite of the Federal Open Market Committee last week saying it plans to hike its fed funds rate two times next year, the financial futures markets believe the Fed may not be able to hike rates even one time in 2019. Currently there is only a 24% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike from the FOMC in 2019 from the current rate of 2.25%-2.50% and a 10% chance of a reduction in the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.00%-2.25%. Longer term, I expect the interest rate futures market will likely trend higher, led by the thirty year Treasury bond futures. Continue to trade the interest rate futures from the long side. Gold futures are higher and are closing in on five month highs. Gold is likely to continue to advance in price.
I will be out of the office tomorrow, Friday December 28. Financial Forecast March 19 S&P 500 Support 2418.00 Resistance 2485.00 March 19 U.S. Dollar Index Support 96.050 Resistance 96.530 March 19 Euro Currency Support 1.14270 Resistance 1.15000 March 19 Japanese Yen Support.90310 Resistance.90950 March 19 Canadian Dollar Support.73280 Resistance.73920 March 19 Australian Dollar Support.7031 Resistance.7094 March 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds Support 144^12 Resistance 145^26 February 19 Gold Support 1267.0 Resistance 1285.0 March 19 Copper Support 2.6600 Resistance 2.7250 SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
February 19 Crude Oil Support 44.83 Resistance 46.87