May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Vol m Company Update, NetDragon (777 HK) BUY Technology - Internet Target Price: HKD14.72 Market Cap: USD796m Price: HKD12.22 Partnering with Amazon and Microsoft Macro Risks Growth Value 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 84 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: Bloomberg NetDragon Common (777 HK) Price Close Avg Turnover (HKD/USD) Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS) 243 225 207 190 172 154 136 119 101 83 14.1m/1.76m Cons. Upside -7.4 Upside 20.5 52-wk Price low/high (HKD) 4.61-12.4 Free float 28.00 Shareholders DJM Holdings 36.85 IDG 10.29 Zheng Hui 7.92 Shariah compliant Billy Leung 852 2103 9257 billy.leung@hk.oskgroup.com Our channel checks reveal that Amazon (AMZN US, NR) s third-party application and Microsoft (MSFT US, NR) s Xbox Live games platform were recently introduced in China. We understand that these two platforms are collaborating with NetDragon (ND) s mobile platform, 91 Mobile, and believe the new content will enhance ND s profitability. We raise our TP to HKD14.72 from HKD12.02, and maintain our BUY rating. Building solid partnerships. According to a news report on Sina.com (SINA US, NR), AMZN has introduced its Appstore to China while MSFT s online games distribution platform, Xbox Live, was launched in China last month. While ND s management did not disclose specific details as its mobile internet business, 91 Mobile (91), is being spun off, it mentioned that 91 has been selected as a partner for AMZN s and MSFT s app/game distribution operations in China. We believe these tieups will create a win-win situation in our view as MSFT and AMZN will leverage on 91 s subscriber base to introduce its new Xbox and Kindle hardware respectively, in exchange for high quality content. Quality content to enhance profitability. While the details on 91 s partnership with AMZN and MSFT are limited, we believe the tie-ups will involve the latter companies offering content on 91 s platform in exchange for its estimated 170m unique user base. The increase in apps/games content offering for 91 will raise the contributions from its more lucrative game sales and revenue-sharing to ND vs its lower margin ad-related business, which made up roughly 55% of mobile internet revenue in 2. This could enhance overall margins, in our view. Maintain BUY; lifting TP to HKD14.09. We raise our EPS forecasts by 6%-7% for 3/14/15F as we anticipate higher profitability of ND s mobile internet business (its segmental NPM for 3F is raised to 22.5% from 20.5%). We also believe ND s partnerships with large global brands reflect its dominance in China s mobile internet industry and thus raise our target P/E for its mobile business to 18x 3F P/E (from 12x), which is the average for companies with mobile app/games distribution operations. Meanwhile, we keep our 10x target 3F P/E for ND s game business unchanged. In all, our SOP-derived TP rises to HKD14.72 (from HKD12.02), implying a blended 15x 3F P/E. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Total turnover (CNYm) 761 1,108 1,407 1,551 1,708 Net income to ord equity (CNYm) 135 39 429 488 560 Recurring net profit (CNYm) 167 368 467 513 577 Recurring net profit growth 377.6 120.3 27.0 9.8 12.5 Core EPS (CNY) 0.32 0.71 0.91 0.99 1.12 DPS (CNY) 0.27 0.28 0.59 0.67 0.77 Dividend Yield 2.7 2.9 6.1 6.9 7.9 Core P/E 30.4 13.6 10.7 9.8 8.7 Return on average equity 9.2 2.7 29.4 30.6 32.0 P/B 3.39 3.54 3.24 2.96 2.69 P/CF 17.5 12.9 22.6 7.3 6.5 EV/EBITDA 15.8 8.8 6.3 5.5 4.7 Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash Ours vs consensus EPS 23.9 12.5 0.0 See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems EFA TM Platform
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 NetDragon (777 HK) SWOT Analysis NetDragon s major advantage is in its firstmover advantage in China s third party mobile apps platform. According to iresearch, this platform is the largest in China by both subscribers and accumulated downloads. Well established as a quality online games and content provider. First-mover advantage in third party mobile apps platform in China. Third party mobile internet platform has limited barriers of entry. Growing partnerships for quality mobile content to enhance profitability Core games business can expand overseas Lacks funding compared to its much larger peers such as Tencent (700 HK, SELL, TP: HKD200) and Qihoo (QIHU US, NR). Figure 1 Figure 2 P/E vs EPS growth P/BV vs ROAE 140 1,200% 4.0 35% 120 1,000% 3.5 31% 100 80 60 40 800% 600% 400% 200% 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 26% 22% 18% 13% 9% 20 0% 0.5 4% 0-200% 0.0 0% P/E (lhs) EPS growth (rhs) P/B (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs) Company Profile NetDragon is a leading domestic online games developer and operator which set up a mobile apps/games platform in 2009. The platform, sj.91.com, is now China s largest ios-based mobile platform. Along with its Android platform, ND has accumulated over 10bn downloads with an estimated unique user base of 170m. See important disclosures at the end of this report 2
NetDragon (777 HK) Financial Exhibits In 2, ND s reported net profit plunged due to non-cash losses arising from convertible stocks related to NetDragon s mobile internet business. Similar losses are unlikely going forward, as the business will be spun off and the convertible stocks will be exercised. Profit & Loss (CNYm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Total turnover 761 1,108 1,407 1,551 1,708 Cost of sales (75) (116) (147) (174) (173) Gross profit 686 992 1,261 1,378 1,534 Gen & admin expenses (140) (152) (186) (202) (231) Selling expenses (211) (248) (270) (298) (326) Other operating costs (159) (204) (229) (237) (256) Operating profit 175 388 576 642 722 Operating EBITDA 237 419 640 716 807 Depreciation of fixed assets (56) (26) (61) (71) (81) Amortisation of intangible assets (6) (4) (4) (4) (4) Operating EBIT 175 388 576 642 722 Net income from investments (1) (3) (4) (5) (5) Other recurring income 27 23 58 54 56 Interest income (4) (24) (28) (31) (32) Exceptional income - net (18) (271) (49) (47) (50) Pre-tax profit 180 114 552 614 691 Taxation (45) (75) (123) (125) (130) Minority interests (0) 0 (1) (1) (1) Profit after tax & minorities 135 39 429 488 560 Net income to ord equity 135 39 429 488 560 Recurring net profit 167 368 467 513 577 Cash flow (CNYm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Operating profit 175 388 576 642 722 Depreciation & amortisation 62 31 65 75 85 Change in working capital 77 199 (420) (6) (9) Other operating cash flow 3 (155) 145 120 121 Operating cash flow 317 463 365 830 919 Interest received (4) (24) (28) (31) (32) Tax paid (23) (51) (116) (117) (120) Cash flow from operations 290 388 221 682 767 Capex (89) (170) (122) (132) (141) Other investing cash flow 4 (1) - - - Cash flow from investing activities (85) (171) (122) (132) (141) Dividends paid (27) (139) (143) (300) (342) Proceeds from issue of shares 52 (2) - - - Increase in debt 45 41 (407) (427) (473) Other financing cash flow (24) 145 143 301 342 Cash flow from financing activities 46 45 (407) (426) (472) Cash at beginning of period 1,219 1,470 1,731 1,423 1,547 Total cash generated 251 261 (308) 124 154 Implied cash at end of period 1,470 1,731 1,423 1,547 1,701 See important disclosures at the end of this report 3
NetDragon (777 HK) Financial Exhibits NetDragon s net cash position remains solid, with its core IT business being the cash cow. It is likely to maintain its historical dividend payout ratio of 70%. Balance Sheet (CNYm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Total cash and equivalents 1,470 1,731 1,423 1,547 1,701 Accounts receivable 42 61 41 43 47 Other current assets 46 90 90 95 100 Total current assets 1,557 1,883 1,554 1,685 1,848 Total investments 17 35 34 33 32 Tangible fixed assets 313 501 537 562 578 Intangible assets 5 15 3 3 3 Total other assets 6 13 13 14 15 Total non-current assets 341 564 587 612 627 Total assets 1,898 2,447 2,140 2,296 2,475 Accounts payable 5 222 6 7 7 Other current liabilities 221 291 73 81 91 Total current liabilities 226 513 79 88 98 Other liabilities 172 540 540 540 540 Total non-current liabilities 172 540 540 540 540 Total liabilities 398 1,053 619 628 638 Share capital 38 38 38 38 38 Retained earnings reserve 1,461 1,356 1,485 1,631 1,799 Shareholders' equity 1,499 1,394 1,522 1,669 1,837 Minority interests 0 - (1) (0) (0) Other equity 0 0 0 0 (0) Total equity 1,500 1,394 1,522 1,669 1,837 Total liabilities & equity 1,898 2,447 2,140 2,296 2,475 Key Ratios (CNY) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Revenue growth 43.1 45.6 27.0 10.2 10.1 Operating profit growth 814.0 121.2 48.3 11.5 12.5 Net profit growth 286.7 (71.0) 994.2 13.8 14.8 EPS growth 303.9 (70.6) 994.2 13.8 14.8 Bv per share growth 7.9 (4.3) 9.2 9.6 10.1 Operating margin 23.0 35.0 40.9 41.4 42.3 Net profit margin 17.8 3.5 30.5 31.5 32.8 Return on average assets 7.8 1.8 18.7 22.0 23.5 Return on average equity 9.2 2.7 29.4 30.6 32.0 Net debt to equity (86.5) (85.5) (58.0) (60.3) (63.2) DPS 0.27 0.28 0.59 0.67 0.77 Recurrent cash flow per share 0.56 0.75 0.43 1.32 1.49 See important disclosures at the end of this report 4
NetDragon (777 HK) Partnering with global internet brands AMZN began promoting its Appstore in China on 6 May 2013. We understand that it will be partnering with NetDragon s 91 mobile platform. Figure 3 Amazon s Appstore advertisement in China Figure 4 Microsoft s Xbox Live was launched in China in April 2013 Figure 5 Changes to our earnings assumptions 3F 4F 5F Original New Change Original New Change Original New Change Monthly PCU ('000) 533 533 0.0% 561 561 0.0% 594 594 0.0% Monthly ACU ('000) 293 293 0.0% 309 309 0.0% 327 327 0.0% Quarterly ARPU (Rmb) 260.0 260.0 0.0% 260.0 260.0 0.0% 265.0 265.0 0.0% P&L (CNY m) Online Games 915.1 915.1 0.0% 963.5 963.5 0.0% 1,040.8 1,040.8 0.0% Mobile Internet 492.3 574.4 16.7% 587.8 685.7 16.7% 666.9 778.1 16.7% Total revenue 1,407.4 1,489.5 5.8% 1,551.2 1,649.2 6.3% 1,707.7 1,818.9 6.5% Cost of revenue (146.8) (155.3) 5.8% (173.6) (184.6) 6.3% (173.4) (184.7) 6.5% Gross profit 1,260.7 1,334.2 5.8% 1,377.6 1,464.6 6.3% 1,534.3 1,634.2 6.5% Selling expenses (186.5) (197.3) 5.8% (201.6) (214.4) 6.3% (230.5) (245.5) 6.5% Administrative costs (269.8) (285.6) 5.8% (297.5) (316.3) 6.3% (325.6) (346.9) 6.5% Development costs (228.8) (242.1) 5.8% (236.7) (251.6) 6.3% (256.2) (272.8) 6.5% Operating costs 575.6 609.1 5.8% 641.8 682.3 6.3% 722.0 769.0 6.5% Net profit 428.6 453.6 5.8% 487.9 519.2 6.4% 560.1 597.2 6.6% EPS (CNY) 0.832 0.880 5.8% 0.946 1.007 6.4% 1.087 1.159 6.6% Net profit - recurring 467.0 494.2 5.8% 512.6 545.0 6.3% 576.6 614.1 6.5% See important disclosures at the end of this report 5
NetDragon (777 HK) Figure 6 SOP valuation Segment 3F revenue 3F net profit 3F net margin 3F EPS 3F PE target NAV / share NAV / share (Rmb m) (Rmb) (Rmb) HKD Online games 915.1 366.0 40.0 0.724 10.0 7.24 9.03 Mobile internet 574.4 128.2 22.3 0.254 18.0 4.57 5.69 Total / blended 1,489.5 494.2 33.2 0.978 12.1 14.72 Upside 20.3% Source: RHB Estimates Figure 7 Peer comparison I 3-mth avg t/o (USDm) PER PER Company Ticker Price Mkt cap (USDm) PEG NetDragon 777 HK 12.22 796 2.0 13.6 10.7 9.8 34.4 10.3 18.6 0.6 7.3 9.8 3.6 3.3 HSI 23,047 10.8 11.0 10.1 (1.9) 8.8 5.6 2.0 3.1 3.5 1.5 1.4 CSI300 2,530 12.5 10.7 9.1 17.0 17.1 16.3 0.7 2.0 2.4 1.7 1.6 Adjusted overall sector avg* 18.3 13.8 11.7 19.8 15.9 (23.1) 0.8 2.8 1.6 3.6 3.0 Online games Changyou CYOU US 30.05 1,593 4.9 5.6 5.2 4.7 8.8 10.7 10.4 0.5 12.6 0.0 2.3 1.6 Giant GA US 7.90 1,890 5.9 11.8 8.5 7.9 38.5 7.7 14.5 0.6 N/A 6.6 3.7 3.1 Kingsoft 3888 HK 8.93 1,352 7.1 18.7 16.6 13.6 12.5 22.5 17.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 3.3 2.9 NetEase NTES US 58.03 7,583 31.0 13.0 11.4 10.2 14.0 11.6 12.3 0.9 1.7 0.9 3.0 2.4 Perfect World PWRD US 12.50 605 4.3 6.8 7.6 6.5 (10.9) 16.9 10.1 0.8 3.6 3.3 0.9 0.8 Average 11.2 9.9 8.6 12.6 13.9 12.9 0.7 4.8 2.5 2.6 2.2 Mobile internet Google GOOG US 861.55 285,180 1,838.9 26.3 18.6 16.1 40.9 15.6 24.4 0.8 N/A 0.0 3.8 3.4 Rovi ROVI US 22.94 2,373 20.7 N/A 11.0 9.9 N/A 10.6 (300.7) N/A N/A N/A 1.5 1.3 Kingsoft 3888 HK 8.93 1,352 7.1 18.7 16.6 13.6 12.5 22.5 17.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 3.3 2.9 Tencent 700 HK 275.20 65,725 169.3 31.3 24.5 19.9 27.8 23.1 22.4 1.1 0.3 0.5 9.8 7.3 Average 25.4 17.7 14.9 27.1 18.0 (59.1) 1.0 0.7 0.7 4.6 3.7 PER FY2 EPS YoY% EPS FY2 YoY% 3-Yr EPS Cagr Div yld Div yld P/B P/B Figure 8 Peer comparison II Rev (USDm) Net gearing Net gearing Gross margin Net margin Net margin Rev NP NP Unlev Company (USDm) (USDm) (USDm) beta NetDragon 178 239 6 73 - - 0.5 89.5 4.7 49.6 2.7 28.2 34.4 15.5 HSI 13.4 12.4 6.1 (0.6) CSI300 13.6 14.7 1.9 (8.3) Adjusted overall sector avg* 4.0-1.2 78.1 28.1 34.0 22.4 22.5 13.7 20.4 Online games Changyou 623 754 282 313 0.0 0.0 1.5 83.2 45.3 41.6 46.4 39.7 6.3 1.6 Giant 345 401 160 223 0.0 0.0 0.8 86.6 46.2 55.7 34.5 38.5 21.4 31.7 Kingsoft 229 296 70 85 0.0 0.0 1.4 86.8 30.7 28.6 18.7 16.9 13.3 37.0 NetEase 1,316 1,547 584 672 0.0 0.0 0.8 68.6 44.4 43.4 25.1 23.4 6.0 19.0 Perfect World 450 452 88 81 0.0 0.0 1.4 80.5 19.5 17.9 13.6 10.8 24.1 9.9 Average 0.0 0.0 1.2 84.3 37.2 37.4 27.7 25.8 14.2 19.8 Mobile internet Google 50,175 47,451 10,737 15,641 0.0 0.0 0.9 58.9 21.4 33.0 16.3 17.8 10.0 11.3 Rovi 651 646 (34) 211 32.3 N/A 1.1 83.1 (5.3) 32.7 (3.4) 9.3 13.1 34.2 Kingsoft 229 296 70 85 0.0 0.0 1.4 86.8 30.7 28.6 18.7 16.9 13.3 37.0 Tencent 7,133 9,427 2,069 2,648 0.0 0.0 1.1 58.5 29.0 28.1 36.5 32.6 16.0 1.2 Average 8.1 0.0 1.1 71.8 19.0 30.6 17.0 19.2 13.1 20.9 Based on 7 May 2013 closing prices for Asian listed equities and 6 May 2013 for others. Source: Bloomberg estimates ROE ROE Sh px 1-mth % Sh px 3-mth % See important disclosures at the end of this report 6
4.2 3.3 4.7 11.3 NR 4.5 4.3 3.5 3.7 5.3 5.5 6.1 6.5 7.2 8.3 8.2 11.3 NetDragon (777 HK) Recommendation Chart Price Close 13 Recommendations & Target Price 11 9 7 5 3 1 May-08 Aug-09 Nov-10 Feb-12 Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated Source: RHB Estimates, Bloomberg Date Recommendation Target Price Price 2013-03-28 Neutral 11.3 8.9 2013-02-04 Neutral 11.3 10.4 2013-01-11 Neutral 11.3 11.5 2013-01-03 Neutral 11.3 10.1 2012-11-26 Buy 11.3 9.4 2012-10-30 Buy 8.2 8.3 2012-09-25 Buy 8.3 8.9 2012-08-27 Buy 8.3 6.8 2012-05-28 Buy 7.2 5.1 2012-04-25 Buy 6.5 5.8 Source : RHB Estimates, Bloomberg See important disclosures at the end of this report 7
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