2017
Study Prepared by: Carl H. Baxmeyer, AICP, REFP Senior Planner Wightman & Associates, Inc. 2303 Pipestone Road Benton Harbor, MI 49022 cbaxmeyer@wightman-assoc.com Phone: (269) 487-9699 [direct] (269) 235-2170 [cell] (269) 927-0100 [office]
Table of Contents Section 1- Overview... 1 Section 2 Methodology... 3 Section 3 Enrollment Projection... 5 Section 4 Summary... 19
Section 1 OVERVIEW Fanning Howey has prepared a demographic study and enrollment projection for the Richmond Community Schools. A modified cohort component (survival) method was used to develop a districtwide enrollment projection. The standard cohort component method is one of the most common and accepted methods of projecting changes in population and enrollment. By assessing the grade-tograde survival ratio for the past several years future enrollment is projected. In a district such as Richmond Community Schools that has experienced changes in student enrollment during the past several years, grade-to-grade survival ratios by themselves limit accuracy. Using a modified cohort survival method, an adjustment is made to account for the students that are likely to enroll or leave the district as a result of changes such as an alteration to the in and out-migration patterns or changes in the number of births. For this study, some modest adjustments were made that are discussed more in the report. The demographics of the entire region and the district has been impacted by an aging population, declining birth rate and the degree of recovery from the Great Recession of 2008-2011. These factors combine to affect the demographics and enrollment in the Richmond Community Schools. During the recession, the area experienced the loss of over 5,400 jobs. This resulted in a net outmigration of persons particularly younger adults most likely to have children in the school district in search of alternative employment opportunities. That combined with an aging population and the overall declining birth rate have resulted in a loss of student enrollment in the district. For this study, different scenarios were developed resulting in three different enrollment projections. Scenario A Most Likely Projection: This represents the projection that is most likely to occur. Kindergarten enrollment is based on a linear regression. The other grades are projected using the Page 1
average grade-to-grade percentage. It is based on minor adjustments to the socio-economic trends currently occurring in the Richmond Community Schools district. Scenario B High Projection: For this scenario, the rate of out-migration was reduced. Since bottom of the recession in 2011, over 1,200 of the 5,410 jobs that were lost have been restored. The high projection is based on the rate of job creation increasing over the current rate. An increase of 25% was used to reflect the improving economic conditions locally, regionally, and nationally. Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau through their County Business Patterns database and information from the U.S. Department of Labor there are indications that this is occurring. As more jobs are created and people return to the area to fill those positions the rate of decline in student enrollment will decrease. Scenario C Low Projection: For this scenario, job creation would slow by 25% below the current rate. This reflects some economic projections of a forthcoming correction to the current pace of recovery from the Great Recession. In our opinion, the Most Likely scenario has received that designation based on the best understanding of current socio-economic trends. While the region is recovering from the impact of the Great Recession, the overall population is aging and the change in the birth rate is moderating but continues to decline. These factors together result in a projection of continued declining enrollment. Page 2
Section 2 METHODOLOGY Fanning/Howey Associates Inc. uses a modified cohort component (survival) method to develop the district-wide demographic projections. The cohort component method is one of the most common and accepted methods of projecting changes in population and enrollment. The district population was divided into distinct five-year [5] increment age groups (cohorts). Therefore, the population of the study area was divided into those persons age 0 to 4, 5 to 9, 10 to 14, etc. Due to the small size of the final cohort, persons age 85 and over were considered as one cohort. Using a combination of the annual fertility and mortality rates for each cohort, the population is aged each year throughout the planning period. Typically, this is done for a ten-year period. Longer periods can be used with the understanding that reliability decreases as the length of the planning period is increased. The fertility and mortality rates are taken from various sources including vital statistics from the State of Indiana and other established sources such as the insurance industry. Indiana provides information on births and deaths by county. Population changes are also affected by migration into and out the area. Traditionally, this is the most difficult factor to assess. A macro-level source of data is the Internal Revenue Service. The IRS codes the individual income tax returns by the social security number of the primary filer. The code establishes the location of the home from which the return was filed. The following year the location code of the primary filer is compared to the previous year s location code. Tables of outflows and inflows by county for each state are developed. Again, this represents macro-level data that is useful for spotting general county-wide trends. Whenever possible, as much of this information is used to augment the cohort component method. The result is the development of a fifteen-year demographic projection for the population residing in Page 3
. This projection provides needed information, especially about births upon which future kindergarten enrollment relies. Following completion of the district-wide population projection the next step is to develop a grade-tograde enrollment projection. This is done by assessing the grade-to-grade survival ratio for the past ten years. In a district such as Richmond Community Schools that has experienced some significant changes in student enrollment during the past ten years grade-to-grade survival ratios by themselves limit accuracy. An adjustment is made to account for the students that are likely to enroll or leave the district as a result of changes to the in and out migration patterns or changes in the number of births. For this study adjustments were made that are discussed more in the following section. Page 4
Section 3 ENROLLMENT PROJECTION The process of generating enrollment projections has been detailed in the Methodology section of this report. As stated, the cohort-survival method was used. In order to improve the accuracy of the projections some adjustments were made. The following sub-section details what statistics were used to make those adjustments. That sub-section is followed by tables showing the actual and projected enrollment for the Richmond Community Schools as a whole as well as for each individual school. A. Statistics Used in Adjusting the Demographic Projection Fertility and Mortality: In order to age the population cohorts in the Richmond Community Schools, fertility and mortality rates had to be established. Using the published data on births and deaths the average fertility rate is 41.7 births per 1,000 persons. The corresponding mortality rate is 46.9 deaths per 1, 000 persons. The overall population has declined along with the number of women of childbearing age. As shown in the following table the number is projected to continue to decrease slightly during the coming years. The following table shows the number of women of childbearing age (defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as women between the ages of 15 and 49) by decade and the change in those numbers. Women of Childbearing Age Richmond Comm. Schools Change 2010 2,875 n/a 2015 2,796-79 2020 2,727-69 2025 2,638-89 2030 2,601-37 Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey and the Indiana State Data Center This, coupled with the decline in the birth rate, will have a dampening effect on the number of births and associated kindergarten enrollment five years later. Page 5
In addition, the overall population in the district continues to age. This reflects a population that is continuing to age. In 2010, the average age of a Richmond Community Schools resident was 39.9. By 2015, according to the American Community Survey provided by the U.S. Census Bureau that average is estimated to have risen to 40.2 years of age. Consider the following chart. It illustrates the percent of the population in each age cohort in 2010 as compared to 2015. 8.0% District Population by Age Cohort 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2010 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau - Note how the percentage of pre-school age children has decreased during the last five years while the percentage of empty nesters and early seniors has increased. Migration: Based on data from the Internal Revenue Service, there is a net out-migration from Wayne County. This information is available on a county-wide basis only, however, since a large percentage of the population (62.3%) lives in the Richmond Community Schools area it is reasonable to assume that the out-migration affects the district as well. Page 6
The overall out-migration has slowed to approximately 225 persons per year. This is a reduction from the out-migration of over 1,000 persons experienced during the depth of the recession. Economic Changes: The following table presents information taken from the County Business Patterns provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. As with the migration data this information is only available on a county-wide basis. It does, however, provide significant insight into a driving factor behind migration. Employees by Selected Sectors 2006 2015 Change 2006 to 2015 Total Number of Employees 30,042 25,840-4,202 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 22 22 0 Construction 822 617-205 Manufacturing 7,472 5,531-1,941 Wholesale trade 593 809 216 Retail trade 4,476 3,810-666 Transportation and warehousing 628 693 65 Information 438 198-240 Finance and insurance 1,017 797-220 Real estate and rental and leasing 362 239-123 Professional, scientific, and technical services 1,500 402-1,098 Management of companies and enterprises 367 551 184 Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services 1,498 1,202-296 Educational services 1,224 1,169-55 Health care and social assistance 5,337 5,507 170 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 192 194 2 Accommodation and food services 2,880 3,059 179 Other services (except public administration) 1,192 990-202 Source: U.S. Census Bureau County Business Patterns Since 2006, Wayne County has lost 4,202 jobs. Again, it should be noted that 5,410 jobs were lost during the 2006 to 2011 period. Gains in employment have been made as the area recovers from the recession. Page 7
Manufacturing and professional services have experienced the greatest number of jobs lost. Increases have been seen in wholesale trade, transportation, management, health care and accommodation services. Development: The Richmond Community Schools does have the potential for additional housing. However, out-migration and the pace of job creation has significantly affected housing development. The following graph shows the total number of housing units, as well as by type, constructed in Wayne County Since 1980. The peaks and valleys correspond with changes in the overall economy. 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Housing Units - Wayne County, IN 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Total Units Units in All Multi-Family Structures Units in 3- and 4-unit Multi-Family Structures Units in Single-Family Structures Units in 2-unit Multi-Family Structures Units in 5+ Unit Multi-Family Structures Source: U.S. Census Bureau and the Indiana State Data Center The following table shows the number of housing units built in the Richmond Community Schools district since 1939. Page 8
YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT Built Cumulative Built 2014 or later 9 19,887 Built 2010 to 2013 266 19,878 Built 2000 to 2009 953 19,612 Built 1990 to 1999 1,341 18,659 Built 1980 to 1989 1,155 17,318 Built 1970 to 1979 2,610 16,163 Built 1960 to 1969 2,640 13,553 Built 1950 to 1959 3,216 10,913 Built 1940 to 1949 2,029 7,697 Built 1939 or earlier 5,668 5,668 Source: U.S. Census Bureau As shown there has been very little construction in recent years. Construction remains far below prerecession levels. B. Population Projections Overall District Population: The following table shows the actual (2010), estimated (2015) and projected (2020 and 2030) population by age cohort for the persons residing within the boundary of the Richmond Community Schools. As shown, the overall population is projected to continue to decline over the next couple of decades. Demographic Cohort 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 to 4 years 2,766 2,575 2,385 2,194 2,003 5 to 9 years 2,465 2,368 2,270 2,173 2,075 10 to 14 years 2,390 2,658 2,927 3,195 3,463 15 to 19 years 2,814 2,949 3,084 3,219 3,355 20 to 24 years 3,171 2,991 2,810 2,630 2,450 25 to 29 years 2,659 2,492 2,325 2,159 1,992 30 to 34 years 2,488 2,285 2,081 1,878 1,674 35 to 39 years 2,337 2,326 2,315 2,304 2,293 40 to 44 years 2,507 2,326 2,145 1,964 1,783 45 to 49 years 2,902 2,991 3,079 3,168 3,257 50 to 54 years 3,032 2,783 2,534 2,285 2,036 55 to 59 years 2,760 2,741 2,723 2,704 2,686 60 to 64 years 2,526 2,534 2,542 2,549 2,557 Page 9
Demographic Cohort 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 65 to 69 years 2,007 2,243 2,479 2,715 2,951 70 to 74 years 1,567 1,703 1,839 1,975 2,111 75 to 79 years 1,294 1,163 1,032 901 770 80 to 84 years 1,266 1,288 1,309 1,331 1,353 85 years and over 1,153 1,080 1,007 934 861 TOTAL 42,104 41,495 40,887 40,278 39,670 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and the Indiana State Data Center It should be noted that the Richmond Community Schools, as well as Wayne County in total is in a cycle of natural aging of the population. The longer-term projections (greater than 20 years) are that a natural reversal of that trend will occur with an increase in the total population. As older residents relocate to alternative housing and locations, younger persons begin to populate the area. While it is difficult to project the magnitude of those changes they do occur. School Age Children as a Percentage of Enrollment: In 2010, the most recent Census year for which a hard count is available, within the Richmond Community Schools boundary, there were 7,106 school age children. As shown in the following table, 70.7% were enrolled in the Richmond Community Schools. By 2015 it was estimated through the Amercian Community Survey that the percent of school age children enrolled in the district had decreased to 65.7% even though the total number had increased slightly. Just over one-third (34.3%) of the students were enrolled in other schools or home schooled. 2010 2015 Age 5-14 Cohort 4,855 5,026 Age 15-18 Cohort 2,251 2,359 Total School Age Children 7,106 7,385 K-12 Enrollment 5,024 4,853 Enrolled in Other Schools / Home Schooled 2,082 2,532 Percent Enrolled in Richmond Public Schools 70.7% 65.7% Percent in Other Schools / Home Schooled 29.3% 34.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey This trend is undoubtedly caused, in part, by the voucher program. It also indicates that there are a significant number of students, now and in the future, who could potentially be enrolled in the Richmond Community Schools. Page 10
C. Enrollment Projections On the following pages are tables showing the actual and projected enrollment over the next ten years. The first table is the actual enrollment for the district as a whole. Following the actual enrollment table is the projected enrollment for three projections. Those tables are followed by a graph showing the actual and projected enrollment. Three different scenario projections were developed. Scenario A Most Likely Projection: This represents the projection that is most likely to occur. Kindergarten enrollment is based on a linear regression. The other grades are projected using the average grade-to-grade percentage. It is based on minor adjustments to the socio-economic trends currently occurring in the Richmond Community Schools district. Scenario B High Projection: For this scenario, the rate of out-migration was reduced. Since bottom of the recession in 2011, over 1,200 of the 5,410 jobs that were lost have been restored. The high projection is based on the rate of job creation increasing over the current rate. An increase of 25% was used to reflect the improving economic conditions locally, regionally, and nationally. Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau through their County Business Patterns database and information from the U.S. Department of Labor there are indications that this is occurring. As more jobs are created and people return to the area to fill those positions the rate of decline in student enrollment will decrease. Scenario C Low Projection: For this scenario, job creation would slow by 25% below the current rate. This reflects some economic projections of a forthcoming correction to the current pace of recovery from the Great Recession. In our opinion, the Most Likely scenario has received that designation based on the best understanding of current socio-economic trends. While the region is recovering from the impact of the Great Recession, the overall population is aging and the change in the birth rate is moderating but continues to decline. These factors together result in a projection of continued declining enrollment. Page 11
The first table of the following pages shows the actual enrollment since the 2006-2007 school year. The subsequent tables show the projections for each of the three scenarios previously described. The actual and projected enrollment is shown in a graph. That is followed by a graph of the detail of the Most Likely projection. The key element to that graph are the bars representing a +/- 4% range. Demographic projections are considered accurate if the enrollment for a year falls within that range. Since enrollment projections are best estimates not definitive statements of fact that range is generally accepted. Factors do change. A major employer moving into the district can affect enrollment positively as one example. Projections can only be based on what the demographer knows at the time. An enrollment outside of the +/- 4% range for one year is not reason to rework the projection. However, if actual enrollment occurs outside the range for two consecutive years or more that is an indication that socio-economic factors have changed and the projection needs to be revised. Page 12
Richmond Community Schools ACTUAL ENROLLMENT Year 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Pre-K 156 213 219 308 368 283 230 277 284 298 293 Kindergarten 504 397 431 435 460 452 418 464 450 388 407 1st 401 472 386 385 381 429 400 412 440 417 384 2nd 445 385 463 374 373 372 384 405 410 402 391 3rd 421 425 382 427 353 357 359 401 396 387 398 4th 423 408 417 364 417 346 329 377 383 378 374 5th 440 411 382 418 374 402 329 342 372 366 351 6th 408 430 402 381 399 375 407 340 336 359 362 7th 415 407 440 409 398 405 364 407 338 339 345 8th 418 420 418 434 391 396 382 373 422 328 302 9th 438 414 391 402 427 397 405 377 378 423 343 10th 444 424 402 381 388 429 392 392 377 370 387 11th 398 421 402 376 333 380 400 362 369 353 343 12th 405 340 407 357 330 360 373 369 338 343 307 Adult (+12) 9 11 0 13 7 3 1 6 5 8 11 Corporation TOTAL 5,725 5,578 5,542 5,464 5,399 5,386 5,173 5,304 5,298 5,159 4,998 Corporation K- 12 TOTAL 5,560 5,354 5,323 5,143 5,024 5,100 4,942 5,021 5,009 4,853 4,694 Change -206-31 -180-119 76-158 79-12 -156-159 Pct. (%) Change -3.7% -0.6% -3.4% -2.3% 1.5% -3.1% 1.6% -0.2% -3.1% -3.3% Page 13
PROJECTED ENROLLMENT (with actual 2016-17 shown for comparison) Scenario A Most Likely 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Pre-K 293 271 266 261 256 252 247 242 237 232 228 Kindergarten 407 412 408 404 400 396 392 388 384 380 376 1st 384 380 385 382 378 374 370 366 363 359 355 2nd 391 369 366 370 367 363 359 356 352 348 345 3rd 398 379 358 354 359 355 352 348 345 341 338 4th 374 386 368 347 344 349 345 342 338 335 331 5th 351 365 377 359 339 336 340 337 334 330 327 6th 362 347 361 373 355 335 332 337 333 330 327 7th 345 363 348 362 374 356 336 333 338 334 331 8th 302 340 357 343 357 368 351 331 328 332 329 9th 343 301 338 356 341 355 367 349 330 326 331 10th 387 334 293 329 346 332 346 357 340 321 318 11th 343 362 312 273 307 324 310 323 334 318 300 12th 307 319 337 290 254 286 301 289 300 310 296 Adult (+12) 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 Corporation TOTAL 4,998 4,939 4,885 4,817 4,791 4,794 4,762 4,711 4,668 4,611 4,544 Corporation K-12 TOTAL 4,694 4,657 4,608 4,544 4,522 4,530 4,502 4,456 4,418 4,365 4,302 Change -159-37 -49-64 -21 8-28 -46-38 -52-63 Pct. (%) Change -3.3% -0.8% -1.1% -1.4% -0.5% 0.2% -0.6% -1.0% -0.9% -1.2% -1.4% Page 14
PROJECTED ENROLLMENT (with actual 2016-17 shown for comparison) Scenario B High Projection 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Pre-K 293 271 266 261 256 252 247 242 237 232 228 Kindergarten 407 412 408 404 400 396 392 388 384 380 376 1st 384 392 397 393 389 385 381 377 374 370 366 2nd 391 370 378 383 379 375 372 368 364 360 357 3rd 398 387 366 374 379 375 371 368 364 360 356 4th 374 391 380 360 367 372 368 364 361 357 353 5th 351 366 382 371 352 359 364 360 356 353 349 6th 362 348 363 379 368 349 356 361 357 354 350 7th 345 359 345 360 376 365 346 353 358 354 350 8th 302 338 352 339 353 368 358 339 346 351 347 9th 343 306 342 356 343 357 373 362 343 350 355 10th 387 331 295 331 344 331 345 360 350 331 338 11th 343 361 309 275 308 320 308 321 335 326 309 12th 307 313 330 282 251 282 293 282 294 307 298 Adult (+12) 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 Corporation TOTAL 5,159 4,956 4,924 4,879 4,877 4,898 4,886 4,858 4,836 4,798 4,746 Corporation K-12 TOTAL 4,694 4,674 4,647 4,606 4,609 4,635 4,626 4,603 4,585 4,552 4,504 Change -159-20 -27-41 3 26-8 -23-18 -33-48 Pct. (%) Change -3.3% -0.4% -0.6% -0.9% 0.1% 0.6% -0.2% -0.5% -0.4% -0.7% -1.0% Page 15
PROJECTED ENROLLMENT (with actual 2016-17 shown for comparison) Scenario C Low Projection 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Pre-K 293 268 263 259 254 249 244 240 235 230 225 Kindergarten 407 408 404 400 396 392 388 384 380 376 372 1st 384 389 390 386 382 378 375 371 367 363 359 2nd 391 364 369 370 366 363 359 355 352 348 344 3rd 398 379 354 358 359 356 352 348 345 341 338 4th 374 382 364 339 343 344 341 337 334 331 327 5th 351 358 365 348 324 328 329 326 323 320 316 6th 362 344 350 357 341 318 321 322 319 316 313 7th 345 358 339 346 353 337 314 318 319 315 312 8th 302 333 346 328 334 341 325 303 307 308 305 9th 343 310 342 355 337 343 350 334 311 315 316 10th 387 344 311 343 356 337 344 351 335 312 316 11th 343 362 321 291 321 332 315 322 328 313 292 12th 307 312 330 293 265 292 303 287 293 299 285 Adult (+12) 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 Corporation TOTAL 5,159 4,922 4,859 4,784 4,743 4,723 4,674 4,612 4,561 4,501 4,435 Corporation K-12 TOTAL 4,694 4,643 4,585 4,514 4,477 4,462 4,417 4,360 4,312 4,257 4,195 Change -159-51 -58-71 -37-15 -45-58 -47-55 -62 Pct. (%) Change -3.3% -1.1% -1.3% -1.5% -0.8% -0.3% -1.0% -1.3% -1.1% -1.3% -1.4% Page 16
Actual and Projected Enrollment 5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 Actual Most Likely High Projection Low Projection Page 17
Most Likely Projection +/- 4% 5,000 4,800 4,694 4,657 4,608 4,600 4,400 4,544 4,522 4,530 4,502 4,456 4,418 4,365 4,302 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Page 18
Section 4 SUMMARY During the next ten years Richmond Community Schools is projected to continue to experience a decrease in student enrollment. However, as shown, the rate of decline is projected to moderate. Since 2006-07 Richmond Community Schools has seen the K-12 student enrollment decline by an average of 79 students per year. During the next ten years, under the Most Likely scenario, that rate is projected to moderate to an average of 39 students per year. How reliable is the Most Likely projection? As with any projection the reliability depends on the precision and accuracy of the underlying factors. The underlying economic factors can, and sometimes do, shift with the passage of time. As shown in the report a significant percentage of school age children are not enrolled in the Richmond Schools. This is not unusal or unexpected. Many, if not most districts are in a similar situation. While it represents an opportunity for increased enrollment by attracting some of those students to the district it is difficult to project what the success of that effort would be. Therefore, the Most Likely projectionis based on a continuation of the trend that is currently occurring. Again, those underlying factors that drive enrollment need to hold for the enrollment projections to be accurate. If they do, Richmond Community Schools will experience a moderated decline in enrollment over the next ten-year period. Page 19