What can Insurers Contribute to Increase Resilience Against Weather Extremes? Prof. Dr. Peter Hoeppe, Head Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Centre, Munich Re 5 th European Communications Workshop for NMHSs, Dublin, September 6, 2017 Insurers as Data Providers Raising Awareness of Changing Risks
Munich Re NatCatSERVICE The world s most comprehensive database on natural catastrophes The Database Today From 1980 until today all loss events; for USA and selected countries in Europe all loss events since 1970. Retrospectively, all great disasters since 1950. In addition, all major historical events starting from 79 AD eruption of Mt. Vesuvius (3,000 historical data sets). Currently more than 40,000 data sets Title of presentation and name of speaker 07/09/2017 3 NatCatSERVICE Loss events worldwide 1980 2016 Number of relevant events by peril Number Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Meteorological events (Tropical storm, extratropical storm, convective storm, local storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Accounted events have caused at least one fatality and/or produced normalized losses US$ 100k, 300k, 1m, or 3m (depending on the assigned World Bank income group of the affected country). 2017 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at February 2017
NatCatSERVICE Convective storms in Europe 1980 2016 Number of relevant events Number Severe storm Flash floods Hailstorm Tornado Lightning Accounted events have caused at least one fatality and/or produced normalized losses US$ 100k, 300k, 1m, or 3m (depending on the assigned World Bank income group of the affected country). 2017 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at April 2017 NatCatSERVICE Convective storms in Europe 1980 2016 Overall losses: nominal, inflation adjusted, and normalized EUR bn Nominal overall losses Inflation adjusted overall losses Normalized overall losses Inflation adjusted via country-specific consumer price index Normalization via local GDP developments 2017 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at April 2017
NatCatSERVICE New Nat Cat Loss Analysis Tool of Munich Re is online - free, no registration necessary! http://natcatservice.munichre.com 2017 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at April 2017 NatCatSERVICE User Interface and Navigation 3. Chose analysis products: Number statistics, loss statistics, distributions, tables, maps 2. Select input data: Perils, regions, or filtered by (socio-)economic criteria 1. Switch between observation period or single years 4. Download results in PDF format or share it through social media 2017 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at April 2017
Insurance itself increases resilience of economies and societies Countries with low insurance penetration levels show decreases in GDP after weather related catastrophes GDP p.c. development in countries with different levels of insurance penetration x 100% trend deviation after a weather related catastrophe High insurance market penetration Low insurance market penetration Source: Melecky M et Raddatz C.(2011) How Do Governements Respond after Catastrophes? World Bank; 10
Insurance provides recovery financing and thus increases resilience Insurance cover significantly helps economic recovery following a natural catastrophe: Academic studies show that a higher level of insurance cover is accompanied by significantly better economic performance following a catastrophe. Depending on the type of catastrophe and the level of economic development, insurance cover can even offset the negative indirect effects of natural catastrophes on national economies Goetz von Peter, Sebastian von Dahlen and Sweta Saxena (2012): The higher the share of insured losses to total losses, the more positive GDP performance is following a catastrophe Florian Englmaier, Till Stowasser (2013): The effect of insurance markets on countries' resilience: particularly in emerging economies, more insurance cover (i.e. increasing the insurance penetration rate) can mitigate the negative economic effects of natural catastrophes Insurability of global warming effects in developing countries Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII) Objectives of MCII: Development of risk transfer solutions to support adaptation mechanisms to global warming in developing countries within the framework of the UNFCCC process. MCII MCII was founded in 2005 on initiative by Munich Re together with Germanwatch, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Munich Re Foundation, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Tyndall Centre, World Bank and independent experts.
G7 Climate Risk Insurance Initiative InsuResilience (2015) G7 decided on a five year project to support people in developing countries to protect themselves against economic consequences of more intense and frequent extreme weather events Target: extra 400 million people earning less than US$ 2 per day get access to direct (100 m) or indirect (300 m) insurance of losses caused by weather extremes G7 Governments already pledged US$ 550 million with option of more to follow later UN Climate Change Conference COP21 Paris (2015) Most relevant decisions Emission Reduction limiting climate change Goal of holding global warming well below 2 C, aiming for 1.5 C Climate Finance Mobilizing $100bn p.a. by 2020, considerable debate over what counts as (additional) climate finance Climate Insurance The Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM) introduced at COP19 to further investigate and organize the topic Climate-related losses and damages are acknowledged as a third climate strategy pillar next to adaptation and mitigation. A clearinghouse for risk transfer will be established serving as a repository Insurance is considered as an essential tool to address loss and damage, referenced directly under 49 of the Decisions as well as Article 8 of the Agreement 14
UNISDR Private Sector Alliance for Disaster Resilient Societies (ARISE) Workstream Insurance Commitments of partners in the workstream Provision of natural catastrophe data Provision of vulnerability data Sharing expert knowledge on loss prevention A certain percentage of investments go to risk reducing activities Connection to 4 of 7 Sendai Framework Targets: Reduce direct disaster economic losses Increase number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies Enhance cooperation with developing countries Substantially increase availability of, and access to, multi-hazard early warning systems Insurers Support Research for Less Vulnerable Buildings
Better Building Standards Reduce Damages Insurance industry is the main sponsor of IBHS research institute Better Building Standards Reduce Damages Tests to compare high-wind (160 km/h) performance of structures using common construction practices with using stronger, safer wind-resistant elements. The components used to make the resilient building stronger and safer cost less than 5% of the total cost of the entire structure. Wind tunnel simulation: https://vimeo.com/17764719
FORTIFIED Home TM Tablet App This free app is a joint project between Munich Re and IBHS Shows step by step how to stengthen your home to better withstand severe weather events Walks homeowners, contractors and architects through the home strengthening process, providing information based on their specific input Information includes videos, animations, and technical specifications for building and retrofitting single family homes. Conclusions Insurers give risks a price tag and thus can give incentives for risk reduction Communication by insurers on losses and their trends raises risk awareness and provides basis data for investment decisions on prevention measures Insurers promote risk transfer mechanisms for the most vulnerable people to make them more resilient Insurers support research to lower the vulnerability of buildings against weather extremes 16.9.2