inancial ystem eport Summary October 1 Bank of Japan
Financial intermediation October 1: Comprehensive assessment and highlights Potential vulnerabilities due to the decline in financial institutions' profitability While the funding environment among firms and households has been highly accommodative with continued monetary easing, signs of overheating, such as excessive risk taking and credit growth, have not been observed on the whole. However, attention should be paid to developments in the real estate market and to financial instability risks that could arise if competition among financial institutions overly intensifies. Stability of the financial system Japan's financial system has been maintaining stability. Financial institutions' capital adequacy ratios are sufficiently above regulatory requirements, and their capital levels are generally adequate relative to the amount of macro risks undertaken. Results of macro stress testing suggest generally strong resilience against stresses. In terms of liquidity, financial institutions have sufficient yen funds. Their liquidity buffer can cover funding shortages in foreign currencies, even if funding conditions become difficult for a certain period. Bolstering stable foreign currency funding bases remains a challenge, as the share of market funding is still large. Financial institutions have sufficient capital bases at present, which will allow them to continue risk taking even if profitability remains subject to downward pressure for the time being. However, if the recent trend of declining profits persists further, as the regional population and customer base continue to shrink alongside the effects of negative interest rates, this could have a negative impact on the accumulation of capital, leading to a weakening in the financial intermediation function. At the same time, financial system stability could be impaired, in a case where financial institutions shift toward excessive risk taking in view of maintaining their profitability. Regarding potential vulnerabilities due to the declining profitability, it is necessary to examine both the risk of overheating and of a gradual pullback in financial intermediation. Challenges from a macroprudential perspective From the viewpoint of the accumulation of macro risks, the challenge is to (1) strengthen the ability to respond to risks in areas where Japanese financial institutions are proactively stepping up their risk taking. The challenges from the perspective of structural changes are to respond to () the increasing systemic importance of large financial institutions and (3) the decline in profitability associated with domestic deposit-taking and lending activities. 1
Contents I. Executive summary: comprehensive assessment of the financial system II. Risks observed in financial markets A. Global financial markets B. Japanese financial markets III. Examination of financial intermediation A. Financial intermediation by financial institutions B. Developments in investment by institutional investors C. Developments in households' investment activities D. Financial intermediation through financial markets E. Financial Activity Indexes IV. Macro risk profile and financial bases of financial institutions A. Credit risk B. Market risk C. Funding liquidity risk D. Financial institutions' capital adequacy E. Financial institutions' profitability and its effects on financial system functioning and stability V. Macro stress testing VI. Conclusion Box 1: Changes in households' investment activities Box : Securities investment by regional financial institutions Box 3: The profit structure of banks in countries adopting negative interest rate policies Box : Background of shrinking deposit and lending margins at regional financial institutions Box : Bank profitability and loan supply incentives Box : The relationship between fees and commissions income and net interest margins in regional financial institutions
1. Developments in financial markets In global financial markets, while investors' risk aversion temporarily heightened following the result of the U.K. referendum in late June -- in which a majority voted to leave the EU -- calm gradually returned to markets thereafter. There are signs that search for yield activities are becoming active again, against the background of advanced economies' long-term interest rates at low levels. Careful attention should thus be paid to whether global fund flows suddenly change. Meanwhile, although there were phases during which developments overseas affected Japanese markets as seen particularly in stock price declines and the continued appreciation of the yen, highly accommodative financial conditions have been maintained with the Bank of Japan's introduction of "Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control" in September 1. Chart II-1-9: Capital flows into emerging markets Balance of payment statistics bil. U.S. dollars Avg. level from 9 to 1 3 Avg. level from to 7 1-1 - -3 - Other investment Portfolio investment Direct investment Total CY 1 1 1 1 Source: Haver Analytics. United Kingdom United States Germany 3 France Spain Japan 1 Long-term yields (1-year) -1 Jan. Mar. May Jul. 1 Chart II-1-: Market reaction to the result of the U.K. referendum Sep. June 3=1 1 FTSE3 Nikkei Stock Average 13 S&P 13 EURO STOXX 11 1 1 9 Stock prices Jan. Mar. May Jul. Sep. 1 Note: 1. The vertical lines indicate the U.K. referendum on June 3, 1. Source: Bloomberg. 1 11 11 1 Foreign exchange rates yen U.S. dollars Depreciation of the yen, appreciation of the euro and GBP GBP/U.S. dollar (rhs) U.S. dollar/yen (lhs) 1 Euro/U.S. dollar (rhs) 9 Jan. Mar. May Jul. Sep. 1 1.7 1. 1. 1. 1.3 1. 1.1 1. 7 3 Chart II-1-1: Credit spreads of EM corporate bonds bps Asia Latin America Europe, the Middle East, and Africa CY 11 13 1 1 1 Source: J.P. Morgan. 3
. Examination of financial intermediation (1) Financial institutions' domestic loans Financial institutions' lending stances have remained accommodative, and the year-on-year growth rate in their domestic loans outstanding has been around percent. Loans have continued to grow, particularly loans to firms. While loans to a large number of industries have been increasing, real estate loans have been growing at an even faster pace. Financial institutions' domestic loan interest rates have continued to decline. In this situation, some financial institutions have been taking a more proactive stance with regard to loans with relatively wider profit margins (subordinated loans, loans to local firms, and card loans). -1 Chart III-1-1: Domestic loans outstanding among financial institutions 3 1 y/y chg. Financial institutions - Financial institutions (before adjusting for special items) -3 CY1 11 1 13 1 1 1 - Chart III-1-: Loans outstanding among financial institutions by type of borrower y/y chg. - Large firms, etc. Small firms Local governments Individuals - Total CY 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 3 1 Chart III-1-1: Loans to the real estate industry among financial institutions y/y chg. Loans to the real estate industry Loans to all industries -1 CY19 3 9 9 9 9 1 7 1 13 1 Chart III-1-1: Average contract interest rates on new loans and discounts among domestically licensed banks 1.9 1.7 1. 1.3 1.1.9 Short-term.7 Long-term. CY 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1
. Examination of financial intermediation () Financial institutions' overseas loans Banks' overseas loans, particularly loans to advanced economies such as North America, have continued to show growth, increasing by over 1 percent on a year-on-year basis in U.S. dollar terms. Loans to Asia have remained more or less unchanged in a situation where demand for funds has ebbed in tandem with slower economic growth. Banks have maintained a proactive stance on overseas business expansion on the whole. Recently, however, some have taken a cautious turn in their initial assessment of loans in terms of both creditworthiness and profitability amid the slowdown in emerging economies, low commodity prices, and shrinkage of lending margins due to the rise in foreign currency funding costs. Chart III-1-19: Banks' foreign currency-denominated loans and loans by overseas branches Major banks Regional banks Chart III-1-: Overseas loans outstanding of three major banks by region 9 7 3 1 bil. U.S. dollars CY1 11 1 13 1 1 1 Foreign currency-denominated impact loans (lhs) Loans of overseas branches (lhs) Year-on-year changes (rhs) 3 1-1 - 3 bil. U.S. dollars 1 1 CY1 11 1 13 1 1 1 3 1-1 tril. U.S. dollars.7 Others Latin America. Western Europe North America Asia...3..1. FY 1 11 1 13 1 1 Sources: Published accounts of each bank.
. Examination of financial intermediation (3) Securities investment by financial institutions Yen-denominated bond investment by financial institutions is on a declining trend on the whole, although it remains at a high level compared with the past, particularly among regional financial institutions. Meanwhile, financial institutions have continued to augment their risk-taking stance by increasing their outstanding amount of investments in risky assets, such as foreign bonds and investment trusts. However, a temporary restraint in foreign bond investment can be seen, partly due to the rise in foreign currency funding costs. Chart III-1-: Outstanding amount of yendenominated bonds among financial institutions Chart III-1-: Outstanding amount of foreign bonds among financial institutions Chart III-1-: Outstanding amount of investment trusts, etc. among financial institutions Financial institutions Financial institutions 1 1 Other domestic bonds JGBs FY 1 1 1 1 3 1 FY 1 1 1 1 Domestic currency-denominated foreign bonds Foreign currency-denominated foreign bonds Foreign bonds 1 1 Shinkin banks Regional banks 1 Major banks 1 1 Dec. Dec. Dec. 3 Dec. 9 Dec. 1 Dec. 1
. Examination of financial intermediation () Developments in investment by institutional investors As domestic interest rates have declined further, institutional investors -- such as life insurance companies and pension funds -- and depository institutions with a focus on market investment -- such as Japan Post Bank and central organizations of financial cooperatives -- have further increased their propensity to accumulate foreign bonds and other risky assets in their investment portfolio. Chart III--3: Outstanding amount of yen-denominated bonds and foreign bonds of Japan Post Bank and central organizations of financial cooperatives Chart III--: Medium- and long-term foreign bonds investment by institutional investors.. Net purchase 1. 1... -. -1. -1. -. Net sale -. Jan. July Jan. 13 1 July Source: Ministry of Finance. Life insurance companies Pension funds, etc. Jan. 1 July Jan. 1 July Outstanding amount of yen-denominated bonds Outstanding amount of foreign bonds Chart III--: Stock investment by institutional investors 1 19 1 17 1 1 1 13 1 FY 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 1 9 7 3 1 FY 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 1. 1... -. Net purchase -1. Net sale -1. Jan. July 13 Jan. 1 July Insurance companies Pension funds, etc. Jan. 1 July Jan. 1 July Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange. 7
. Examination of financial intermediation () Developments in households' investment activities Households' moves to diversify their asset portfolios have lost momentum somewhat since the summer of 1. While the inflow of individuals' funds to stock investment trusts has been weak, the pace of inflow into bonds, particularly JGBs issued exclusively to retail investors, has picked up. Nevertheless, the trend of gradually increasing the share of risky assets in households' financial portfolios appears to have been maintained. Households are placing more emphasis on total returns, taking into account long-term unrealized gains as well, and financial institutions have continued to make efforts to increase their client assets. 3 3 1 1 Chart B1-1: Proportions of households holding risky assets All ages -39-9 and over CY199 9 9 1 1 Source: Central Council for Financial Services Information. Chart III-3-1: Client assets held by major securities companies Chart III-3-: Capital flows by product among major securities companies Chart III-3-3: Purchases through NISAs and the number of NISAs opened 1 1 1 1 Others MRF, etc. Bonds Investment trusts Equities Mar. 11 Sep. Mar. 1 Sep. Mar. 13 Sep. Mar. 1 Sep. Mar. 1 Sep. Mar. Aug. 1 3 1-1 - -3 - Others Bonds Equities Ja-Mr 11 Ja-Mr 1 Ja-Mr 13 Ja-Mr 1 MRF, etc. Investment trusts Net flows Ja-Mr 1 Ja-Mr 1 3 1 m/m chg., number of accounts, thou. Jr. NISAs (lhs) Non-Jr. NISAs (lhs) Amount (rhs) Apr. 1 July Oct. Jan. 1 Apr. July 3. 3... 1. 1...
. Examination of financial intermediation () Financial intermediation through financial markets In terms of equity financing through the stock market, transactions have remained lackluster against the backdrop of volatile stock prices, although firms' proactive financing stance seems to have been largely unchanged. Issuing conditions for CP and corporate bonds continue to be favorable, as seen from the further decline in yields on new issues. Under these circumstances, in the corporate bond market, an increasing number of firms have issued super-long-term bonds. Chart III--1: Equity financing Chart III--: Amount of corporate bonds issued Number of cases 1 number of cases IPO CB PO CY1 13 1 1 1 Amount. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1...... CY1 13 1 1 1 3. 3... 1. 1.. Over 1 years -1 years 1- years. CY 11 1 13 1 1 1 Source: I-N Information Systems. Source: I-N Information Systems. 9
. Examination of financial intermediation (7) Examination of signs of overheating -- Financial Activity Indexes -- The funding environment among firms and households has been highly accommodative, in light of the aforementioned financial intermediary activities. On the whole, even in such a situation, signs of overheating such as excessive risk taking and credit growth, have not been observed. Looking at the Financial Activity Indexes, all 1 indicators are "green," at present showing that many financial activities exhibit no significant deviation from their trends. However, the "real estate firms' investment to GDP ratio" and the "DI of lending attitudes of financial institutions" warrant close monitoring, as they are "green" but approaching "red." 1 1 1 1 Chart III--: Total credit-to-gdp ratio Original series Trend 1 CY 19 3 9 9 9 9 1 7 1 13 1 Sources: Cabinet Office, "National accounts"; BOJ, "Flow of funds accounts." Financial DI of lending attitudes of financial institutions institutions Growth rate of M Financial Equity weighting in institutional investors' portfolios markets Stock purchases on margin to sales on margin ratio Private Private investment to GDP ratio sector Total credit-to-gdp ratio Household investment to disposable income ratio Household Household loans to GDP ratio Business fixed investment to GDP ratio Corporate Corporate credit to GDP ratio Real estate firms' investment to GDP ratio Real estate Ratio of real estate loans to GDP Stock prices Asset prices Land prices to GDP ratio Chart III--1: Financial Activity Indexes CY 1 3 7 9 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 Sources: Bloomberg; Cabinet Office, "National accounts"; Japan Real Estate Institute, "Urban land price index"; Ministry of Finance, "Financial statements statistics of corporations by industry"; Tokyo Stock Exchange, "Outstanding margin trading, etc."; BOJ, "Flow of funds accounts," "Loans and bills discounted by sector," "Money stock," "Tankan." 3 1-1 Chart III--: DI of lending attitudes of financial institutions pts Accommodative Original series Trend - Severe -3 CY19 3 9 9 9 9 1 7 1 13 1 Note: 1. Shaded areas in the above chart represent the following: (1) red areas show that an indicator has risen above the upper threshold, that is, it is tending toward overheating; () blue areas show that an indicator has declined below the lower threshold, that is, it is tending toward excessive contraction; (3) green areas show a limited tendency toward either extreme. 1
Developments in the real estate market Although the real estate market currently does not appear to show signs of overheating on the whole, some developments at the margin warrant attention. For example, as capitalization rates have declined and real estate prices have continued to increase in metropolitan areas, lofty transaction prices with low yields have been seen in some cases. Moreover, it can be observed that J-REITs and other firms have been acquiring properties not just in metropolitan areas, but also in provincial regions. Regional banks have stepped up equity investments in real estate funds further, including J-REITs, while the growth rate of banks' real estate loans has increased further. Thus, developments in real estate markets continue to warrant close monitoring henceforth. Chart III--3: Real estate firms' investment to GDP ratio Chart III--: Capitalization rates of office buildings in Tokyo metropolitan area Chart III--: Number of real estate transactions by region..... -. Original series Trend -. CY 19 3 9 9 9 9 1 7 1 13 1 Sources: Cabinet Office, "National accounts"; Ministry of Finance, "Financial statements statistics of corporations by industry."..... 3. Marunouchi, Otemachi (lhs) Nihombashi (lhs) Long-term JGB yields (1-year, rhs) 3. -. CY 1 1 1 1 Sources: Bloomberg; Japan Real Estate Institute, "The Japanese real estate investor survey.".. 1. 1... 1 9 7 3 1 CY1 3 7 9 11 13 1 Others Nagoya city Osaka city Other metropolitan areas 3 Tokyo wards (excluding wards) wards in the Tokyo metropolitan area Source: Japan Real Estate Institute. 11
3. Stability of the financial system: a static assessment (1) Macro risk profile and capital bases of financial institutions Financial institutions' capital adequacy ratios are sufficiently above regulatory requirements. Financial institutions' capital levels are generally adequate relative to the amount of risk undertaken. It can be judged that financial institutions currently have sufficient capacity to absorb losses and ability to take on risks. 1 1 1 1 1 Chart IV--1: Capital adequacy ratios Internationally active banks Domestic banks (banks) Domestic banks (shinkin banks) Total capital adequacy ratios Tier 1 capital ratios Common equity Tier 1 capital ratios CAR Tier 1 CET1 Regulatory levels (including capital conservation buffer) FY 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Capital adequacy ratios Tier 1 capital ratios Core capital ratios FY 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FY 1 1 1 Chart IV--: Risks borne by financial institutions and amount of adequate capital 7 3 1 Semiannually FY3 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 S Mr S Operational risk 1 1 Interest rate risk Market risk associated with stockholdings Credit risk Adequate capital Adequate capital + unrealized gains/losses on securities 1
Risks borne by financial institutions Looking at financial institutions' risks by risk category, (i) the amount of financial institutions' credit risk has decreased compared to the previous Report, due to an improvement in asset quality. (ii) The amount of interest rate risk associated with financial institutions' yen-denominated bondholdings has increased somewhat and remains at a high level compared with the past. (iii) The amount of foreign currency interest rate risk has increased, particularly among regional banks, whose increase has been relatively large. (iv) The amount of market risk associated with stockholdings has increased mainly due to the rise in market volatility. 1 9 7 3 1 Chart IV-1-1: Credit risk by type of bank Major banks Regional banks Shinkin banks FY 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1. 1. 1.. Credit risk (lhs) Semiannually Semiannually 1 1 11 Ratio to adequate capital (rhs) 3 1 3 1 Chart IV--1: Interest rate risk associated with yen-denominated bondholdings among financial institutions 1 3 years or less (lhs) 3- years (lhs) Quarterly -1 years (lhs) Over 1 years (lhs) Ratio to adequate capital (rhs) Chart IV--7: Interest rate risk of foreign currency-denominated bonds among banks Major banks Regional banks bil. yen 7 FY1 3 7 9 11 13 3 1 D Je Ag 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 Chart IV--: Market risk associated with stockholdings among financial institutions 1 1 Quarterly FY1 3 7 9 11 13 D Je S 1 1 Market risk associated with stock investment trusts (lhs) Market risk associated with stockholdings (lhs) Ratio to adequate capital (stockholdings, rhs) Ratio to adequate capital (including stock investment trusts, rhs) U.S. dollar-denominated foreign bonds (lhs) Euro-denominated foreign bonds (lhs) Others (lhs) Ratio to yen-denominated bonds (rhs) 3 1. Mar. 1 Sep. Mar. 1 Sep. Mar. 1 Mar. 1 Sep. Mar. 1 Sep. Mar. 1 13
3. Stability of the financial system: a static assessment () Funding liquidity risk Financial institutions have sufficient yen funds. For foreign currency funding, financial institutions have a liquidity buffer that can cover funding shortages, even if market funding conditions become difficult for a certain period. Moreover, they continue to make progress in bolstering funding bases. However, market funding continues to account for a large share of foreign currency funding, and the funding premium in foreign currencies has been on a trend of increase partly because a wide range of financial institutions and institutional investors have been accumulating overseas assets. Therefore, financial institutions need to persevere with efforts to secure stable funding bases in foreign currencies. Chart IV-3-3: Stability gap among banks Major banks 9 bil. U.S. dollars Corporate bonds, etc. Medium- to long-term FX swaps and currency swaps 7 Client-related deposits Stability Loans gap 3 1 CY1 11 1 13 1 1 1 Chart IV-3-: Resilience to foreign currency liquidity stress among banks 3 1 bil. U.S. dollars Major banks CY1 11 1 13 1 1 1 FX swaps and currency swaps maturing within 1 month Interbank funding maturing within 1 month Repos maturing within 1 month Foreign currency liquidity Chart IV-3-7: Amount of foreign currency funding via FX swaps and currency swaps by Japanese financial entities 1,3 1, 1,1 1, Chart IV-3-: Breakdown of the short-term U.S. dollar funding costs (FX swaps) 1. 1. 1. 1. 1...... -. CY1 11 1 13 1 1 1 CIP deviation LIBOR-OIS spread USD OIS USD rate from JPY (3-month) 9 7 Source: Bloomberg. bil. U.S. dollars Major banks and institutional investors, etc. Including regional financial institutions FY1 11 1 13 1 1 1 Sources: Bloomberg; The Life Insurance Association of Japan; Published accounts of each company; BOJ. 1
3. Stability of the financial system: a dynamic assessment (macro stress testing) (1) Tail event scenario Envisages a situation whereby economic and financial developments at home and abroad deteriorate to a level comparable to that seen during the Lehman shock. The year-on-year growth rate of overseas loans outstanding turns deeply negative, while the growth rate of domestic loans outstanding falls to close to percent partly because the sharp decline in the profitability of such loans forces financial institutions to adopt a tighter lending stance. While net interest income decreases substantially at internationally active banks, mainly due to the significant decline in overseas loans, the decline experienced by domestic banks -- with a smaller share of overseas loans -- remains moderate. Credit cost ratios at internationally active banks increase to levels just below their break-even points, while credit cost ratios at domestic banks rise to levels well above their break-even points. y/y chg. Overseas economies and the domestic economy Real GDP (World) Real GDP (Japan) Output gap Baseline scenario Tail event scenario Simulation - CY1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 Chart V-1-1: Loans outstanding Chart V-1-: Net interest income Internationally active banks Domestic banks Internationally active banks Domestic banks y/y chg. Simulation Simulation - - - - -1 Baseline scenario Tail event scenario FY 1 1 1 17 1 1 1 1 17 1 - - y/y chg. 7 3 1 Baseline scenario Tail event scenario Simulation Simulation - FY 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 Simulation FY1 1 1 17 1 1 1 1 17 1 - - - FY 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1. 1. 1... Chart V-1-3: Credit cost ratio Internationally active banks Domestic banks Baseline scenario Tail event scenario Break-even points Simulation Simulation Sources: Cabinet Office, "National accounts"; IMF, "World economic outlook"; Japan Center for Economic Research, "ESP forecasts"; BOJ. Simulation -. FY 1 1 1 17 1 1 1 1 17 1 1
3. Stability of the financial system: macro stress testing () Tail event scenario Under the tail event scenario, at internationally active banks, the CET1 capital ratio falls by.3 percentage points compared to the baseline scenario, due to a decrease in pre-provision net revenue (excluding trading income) and an increase in unrealized losses on securities holdings. However, on average, the capital adequacy ratio still remains above regulatory requirements. The core capital ratio for domestic banks declines by 1. percentage points, mainly due to an increase in credit costs, but remains well above regulatory requirements on average. The financial system is considered to have generally strong resilience against economic and financial shocks originating from home and abroad. Chart V-1-: Decompositions of the CET1 capital ratio and the core capital ratio Internationally active banks Domestic banks 1 1 13 1 11 1 9 7 1. Baseline scenario Increase in unrealized losses on securities holdings Increase in credit costs Decrease in pre-provision net revenue (excl. trading income) Decrease in risk-weighted assets CET1 capital ratio Increasing factor Decreasing factor Others Taxes and dividends.3 Tail event scenario 1 1 13 1 11 1 9 7 1.7 Baseline scenario Increase in credit costs Decrease in pre-provision net revenue (excl. trading income) Decrease in risk-weighted assets Others Core capital ratio Increasing factor Decreasing factor Taxes and dividends 9.3 Tail event scenario Note: 1. Data for end-march 19. 1
Issues in interpreting the results of the tail event scenario Even if financial institutions' capital adequacy ratios are above regulatory requirements, amid the occurrence of stresses, financial institutions' stance toward risk taking could retreat, for instance when net losses in their financial statements or unrealized losses on securities holdings are incurred. This could in turn adversely impact the financial intermediation function. The results for the tail event scenario show that more than 7 percent of the banks tested could temporarily record net losses. Moreover, there is significant heterogeneity with regard to the capital adequacy ratios of domestic banks. Financial institutions that record net losses or those whose capital adequacy ratios are comparatively low have been found to exhibit a tendency to tighten their lending stance to a greater extent than that predicted by the deterioration of their profitability and the impairment of their adequate capital. - Chart V-1-1: Distribution of profitability and loans outstanding Domestic banks (banks) Domestic banks (shinkin banks) deviations of changes in loans outstanding, pts deviations of changes in loans outstanding, pts -3 - - -7 - -9 with effects of ROA -1 without effects of ROA -11 - -1 1 net income ROA, Chart V-1-: Distribution of net income ROA..... -. -. Simulation -. 1th-9th percentile range -. FY 1 1 1 17 1 - - - -7 - -9 - -1 1 net income ROA, Chart V-1-9: Distribution of domestic banks' core capital ratio 1 1th-9th percentile range 1 Simulation 1 1 1 FY 1 1 1 17 1 Note: 1. In Chart V-1-1, "with effects of ROA" refers to the case where the Financial Macro-econometric Model incorporates non-linear effects of the level of financial institutions' net income ROA on their lending stance. 17
3. Stability of the financial system: macro stress testing (3) Tailored event scenario The tailored event scenario is characterized not only by a widening of foreign currency funding premiums, but also constraints on the availability of foreign currency funding, as stresses in foreign currency funding markets occur. The stress test focuses on internationally active banks. Specifically, term premiums for U.S. interest rates are assumed to widen by basis points, due to rising uncertainty in global financial markets, among other factors. At the same time, conditions in foreign currency funding markets deteriorate, and foreign currency funding premiums widen by basis points. Moreover, the availability of foreign currency market funding is also constrained, which triggers forced disposals of foreign currency-denominated loans in response to the shortage in foreign currency funding, resulting in capital losses. Upon a rise in long-term U.S. interest rates, the following developments affect Japan's economy through various trade and financial channels: (i) a temporary slowdown in overseas economies; and (ii) a repatriation of funds to advanced economies, including the United States, and the resultant adverse effects on emerging and other economies. Transmission channels of risks in tailored event scenario Rise in U.S. interest rates (widened term premiums) Foreign currency funding difficulties (deterioration in availability) Unrealized losses on securities holdings (stocks and foreign bonds) Global economies decelerate Disposal of claims on loans Rise in foreign currency funding costs, resulting in decrease in net interest income Increase in credit costs Decrease in adequate capital 1
3. Stability of the financial system: macro stress testing () Tailored event scenario The CET1 capital ratio declines by around 1.7 percentage points, compared to the baseline scenario. However, it is maintained above regulatory requirements. Key factors contributing to the decline in the ratio are as follows. The rise in U.S. interest rates and decline in stock prices result in unrealized losses on securities holdings. Credit costs increase, due partly to the disposal of loans, while pre-provision net revenue (excluding trading income) contracts, due in part to the decrease in lending. In the case where foreign currency funding markets come under stress, foreign currency funding constraints could be observed not only among Japanese financial institutions but also among financial institutions in other countries at the same time, which could result in a situation where disposals of foreign currency-denominated assets gather pace. If many financial institutions attempt to dispose of their assets simultaneously, the discount on disposal could be even larger. As more loans then need to be disposed of to secure the same amount of foreign currency funds, the impact of the deeper discount in the disposal of loans on capital adequacy could become larger in a non-linear fashion. Chart V-1-: Decomposition of the CET1 capital ratio 1 1 13 1. 1 11 1 9 7 Baseline scenario Increase in unrealized losses on securities holdings Increase in credit costs Decrease in pre-provision net revenue (excl. trading income) Decrease in risk-weighted assets CET1 capital ratio Increasing factor Decreasing factor 1.9 Others Taxes and dividends Tailored event scenario Note: 1. Data for end-march 19. Chart V-1-11: Discount on disposal and CET1 capital ratio CET1 capital ratio, 11. 1.9 11. 1. 1. 9.9 1. 9.3 9. 9.... 1 3 Discount on disposal, Note: 1. Data for end-march 19. 19
. Decline in financial institutions' profitability and its effects on financial system functioning and stability (1) Current situation of profitability Banks' financial results for fiscal 1 show that changes have been observed in the factors previously responsible for lifting profits: (i) as the credit cost ratio is already fairly low, the scope for further falls is limited. Indeed, credit costs at major banks have begun to rise; (ii) profits from fees and commissions, which had been increasing for some time, have begun to fall, mainly due to stagnant sales of investment trusts given the decline in stock prices and other factors; and (iii) gross operating profits from international operations at major banks, a main driver of profit growth, have declined, due to the translation effects of foreign currency-denominated profits during a yen appreciation phase and to an increase in foreign currency funding costs. The dissipation of factors supporting profit growth has rendered the declining profitability of domestic deposittaking and lending businesses more likely to directly affect overall profits. Indeed, the financial results for the April-June quarter of fiscal 1 showed a sharp decline in the financial institutions' profits mainly due to shrinking profit margins under a negative interest rate. tril.yen..7....3. Net income (Apr.-Jun. 1) Chart IV--: Decomposition of change in net income from the previous year Decrease in sales of investment trusts Net interest income Net fees and commissions General and administrative expenses Major banks Tightening of margins in domestic business sector Decrease in profits due to cancellations of investment trusts Decrease in profits due to rise in foreign currency funding cost and yen appreciation Delay in reducing strategic stockholdings due to fall of stock prices Realized gains/losses on bondholdings Realized gains/losses on stockholdings Credit costs Other profits Tax-related expenses y/y chg. -3 Net income (Apr.-Jun. 1)...3 tril.yen Net income (Apr.-Jun. 1) Net interest income Net fees and commissions Regional banks Tightening of margins in domestic business sector Decrease in sales of investment trusts General and administrative expenses Realized gains/losses on bondholdings Realized gains/losses on stockholdings Credit costs Others y/y chg. - Net income (Apr.-Jun. 1) Sources: Published accounts of each bank.
Box 3: The profit structure of banks in countries adopting negative interest rate policies In European countries that have adopted negative interest rate policies ahead of Japan, banks' profitability for fiscal 1 has not declined significantly, due in part to the following: (i) deposit interest rates were high when the policies were introduced, so there was room to cut them; and (ii) the share of deposits thought to be incompatible with the application of a negative interest rate as a proportion of total liabilities was small. In contrast, low or zero interest rates had persisted for a longer time in Japan than in Europe. Japanese banks' deposit rates were already low when the negative interest rate policy was introduced. Furthermore, the share of deposits in total funding was high. As a result, the effect of negative interest rates on Japanese banks' profit margins tended to be larger compared to European banks. 3 Chart B3-1: Net interest margins of banks in countries that introduced negative interest rates Euro area banks Swiss banks Swedish banks Japanese banks Implementation of negative interest rate: June 1 Implementation of negative interest rate: January 1 Implementation of negative interest rate: February 1 Implementation of negative interest rate: February 1 1 1-1 1.3..97. FY 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. Net interest margin Yield on assets Yield on liabilities Chart B3-: ROE of banks Chart B3-3: Breakdown of funding of banks Euro area banks Swiss banks 1 Swedish banks Japanese banks Equity Others Funding from financial institutions Corporate bonds, etc. Deposits 7 7 3 31-1 FY 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. Euro area banks Swiss banks Swedish banks Japanese banks Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. 1
. Decline in financial institutions' profitability and its effects on financial system functioning and stability () Risk-taking capability Financial institutions have sufficient capital bases at present, which will allow them to continue risk taking even if profitability remains subject to downward pressure for the time being. Going forward, if financial institutions' portfolio rebalancing activities lead to an improvement in economic and price developments, this is in turn likely to bring about a recovery in core profitability. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the possibility that financial system stability will be impaired, in a case where financial institutions shift toward excessive risk taking in view of maintaining their profitability, amid a decline in the profitability of their loans and securities investment mainly due to the effects of low and negative interest rates (Box ). -- It can be confirmed that when lending margins contract, a regional financial institution whose capital adequacy ratio is high tends to increase risky asset holdings. In particular, a financial institution whose core profitability is poor tends to increase its risky assets to a greater extent in order to compensate for its lackluster profits. Conversely, a financial institution with poor financial strength is less likely to increase its risky assets even when lending margins contract. Chart B-1: Ratio of investment trusts to total assets Chart B-3: Estimation results (estimated values of λ) Regional banks Shinkin banks Regional banks ratio to total assets, Top 1- Top - Top -7 Top 7-9 Bottom 1 Shinkin banks Financial strength Core profitability Core profitability Low High Low High High -.9 *** -.73 *** High -3.7 *** -.7 ** Low -1.9. Low -.9 1.39 * Financial strength 3 1 FY 9 1 1 9 1 1 Notes: 1. The estimation period is from fiscal to fiscal 1. Estimation with fixed effects.. ***, **, and * indicate statistical significance at 1 percent, percent and 1 percent levels, respectively. Panel estimation based on the following equations. Risky asset to total assets ratio, Lending margin, Constant λ Financial strength, Core profitability, Here, the dummy variable for financial strength takes the value of when the capital adequacy ratio is less than percent, and 1 when it is percent or above. The dummy variable for profitability takes the value of when net operating profits (excluding securities-related items) is negative, and 1 when positive.
. Decline in financial institutions' profitability and its effects on financial system functioning and stability (3) Effects on loss-absorbing capacity If the recent trend of declining profits persists, the number of financial institutions experiencing an erosion of their loss-absorbing capacity could increase, leading to a weakening in the financial intermediation function. In fact, the number of financial institutions -- in particular regional institutions -- that are unable to cover their expenses with income from deposit-taking and lending activities as well as fees and commissions has been increasing, and should a shock materialize, causing credit costs to increase, these institutions could more easily record losses, being unable to absorb the credit costs with pre-provision net revenue. Chart IV--: Break-even credit cost ratios by type of bank Chart IV--3: Ratios of banks for which loan-deposit income and other income falls short of expenses and distribution of their income-to-expenses 1 1 1 1 1 bps Major banks Regional banks Shinkin banks FY 1 1 1 1 9 7 3 Regional banks 9-1 -9 7- -7 - Less than 1 Banks for which loan-deposit 1 income and other income falls short of expenses. FY 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 Shinkin banks 1 9 7 3 1 FY 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 3
Box : Background of shrinking deposit and lending margins at regional financial institutions When changes in deposit and lending margins at regional financial institutions over the past 1 years are decomposed into its contributory factors,itcanbeconfirmedthatthefall in the population growth rate and in the loan-to-deposit ratio, in addition to the decline in interest rates, have played a key role. On the other hand, regional economic factors have not exerted a very large effect on margins. The results of the forecasting exercise for deposit and lending margins over the next 1 years show that in the "recovery scenario," population decline and the decline in the loan-to-deposit ratio alongside the aging population exert downward pressure on deposit and lending margins. Nonetheless, margins gradually recover with an increase in the market interest rate, and reach a level somewhat above the present level in fiscal, 1 years from now. Conversely, in the "sluggish growth scenario," deposit and lending margins remain below the present level, because the increase in the market interest rate is limited...1. -.1 -. Chart B-: Factor decomposition of deposit and lending margin deviation from FY, pts -.3 Market interest rate -. Regional economy Population growth -. Loan-to-deposit ratio -. Deposit and lending margin FY 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 7 3 1 Chart B-: Distribution of predicted deposit and lending margins number of banks Recovery scenario Sluggish growth scenario 1. 1. 1... 3. 3. 3.. deposit and lending margin,....3..1. -.1 -. Chart B-3: Simulation results of deposit and lending margin Recovery scenario deviation from FY1, pts Market interest rate Regional economy Population growth Loan-to-deposit ratio Deposit and lending margin -.3 FY1 1 17 1 19 1 3 -.1 -. Sources: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research; BOJ.....3..1. Sluggish growth scenario deviation from FY1, pts -.3 FY1 1 17 1 19 1 3
Box : Bank profitability and loan supply incentives From a long-term perspective, profitability, which is the source of capital accumulation for banks, has had an influence on the lending stances of these institutions. Should downward pressure continue to be exerted on bank profits, keeping banks from securing returns that meet their capital costs for a prolonged period, the effects could spill over to the financial intermediation function even if they currently hold a sufficient amount of capital, as future capital losses will be factored in, in a forward-looking manner. -- The low price-to-book (P/B) ratios in recent years may be a reflection of the belief held by market participants that "it has become difficult for banks to earn returns commensurate with the cost of capital, over an extended period." Although the relationship between banks' P/B ratios and their loan supply is weaker than before, how the low P/B ratios of banks at present will affect their future lending behavior warrants close monitoring. Chart B-1: Bank profitability and lending ROA ROE - COE P/B ratio....3..1. -.1 y/y chg. ROA, preceding fiscal year (lhs) loan (rhs) -. FY199 9 9 1 1 7 3 1-1 - -3 1 - pts y/y chg. ROE - COE, preceding fiscal year (lhs) loan (rhs) - FY199 9 9 1 1 times y/y chg. 3 7 P/B ratio, preceding fiscal year (lhs) loan (rhs) 3 1 1-1 - -3 FY199 9 9 1 1 7 3 1-1 - -3 Sources: Bloomberg; BOJ.
. Decline in financial institutions' profitability and its effects on financial system functioning and stability () Summary Regarding the potential vulnerability of the financial system due to the declining profitability of financial institutions, it is necessary to examine both the risk of overheating -- excessive accumulation of macro risks and exuberant asset prices -- and the risk of a gradual pullback in financial intermediation due to a persistent decline in profits. In addition to assuming risks in lending, securities investment, and other activities under the auspices of an appropriate risk management framework, financial institutions need to improve their profitability in the following ways: (i) expansion of business areas, including internationalization of business operations; (ii) augmentation of non-interest income, such as fees and commissions; (iii) operational innovation, including the use of information technology, and review of the cost structure; and (iv) strengthening of regional industries and enhancement of the vitality of regional firms, among other measures.
. Challenges from a macroprudential perspective (1) Japan's financial system has been maintaining stability on the whole. In order to ensure stability in the future, it is essential to steadily respond to the accumulation of macro risks and structural changes in the financial system that could become a source of potential vulnerability. From the viewpoint of the accumulation of macro risks, the challenge is to (i) strengthen the ability to respond to risks in areas where Japanese financial institutions are proactively stepping up their risk taking, such as overseas business and market investment. The challenges from the perspective of structural changes in the financial system are to respond to (ii) the increasing systemic importance of large financial institutions and (iii) the decline in profitability associated with domestic deposit-taking and lending activities. 7
. Challenges from a macroprudential perspective () The Bank of Japan will continue to deal with these challenges toward ensuring financial system stability, through its off-site monitoring and on-site examinations, among other efforts. Recent efforts by the Bank are detailed below. (i) As for overseas activities, the Bank is improving its surveillance of developments in loan extension in areas of focus for financial institutions, such as merger & acquisition and resource development-related loans. At the same time, the Bank also exchanges views with financial institutions on conducting multifaceted analyses, such as on how commodity prices affect the quality of their credit portfolios. (ii) Regarding foreign currency funding, the Bank has enhanced its surveillance of financial institutions' foreign currency liquidity risks, taking into account their international business strategies and increasingly stringent international financial regulations. The Bank has encouraged institutions to improve their risk management practices by, for example, preparing robust contingency measures that can be deployed in times of stress. In addition, it has been proceeding with efforts to develop the framework for foreign currency liquidity provision in an emergency situation, such as foreign currency swap arrangements established with overseas central banks. (iii) As for market investment risks, given that financial institutions are undertaking diverse risks in the low interest rate environment, the Bank is seeking to gain a deeper understanding of financial institutions' risk management frameworks and their planned responses in the event of the occurrence of market fluctuations, among other areas. It has also been holding discussions on conducting more robust risk management in line with the risk preferences of each financial institution. (iv) As for the systemic importance of major banks, the Bank of Japan has encouraged them to enhance their understanding of the complex and global risks they are undertaking, including through the maintenance of a management information system, to implement more effective stress tests as one way of analyzing such risks, and to strengthen their ability to respond to the occurrence of crises. (v) The Bank has also been analyzing the profitability of individual regional financial institutions, taking into account the impact of demographic factors, and has deepened and continued its dialogue with the relevant institutions on these medium- to long-term issues.