Investor Briefing 2018 Performance 5 th November, 2018 1
INVESTOR BRIEFING2-01.jpg 2
Equity Group s Philosophies INVESTOR BRIEFING2-02.jpg 3
Governance & Organizational Structure Each subsidiary with own Board of Directors compliant with local regulations 4
Group Executive Management James Mwangi, CBS Group Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer Mary Wamae Group Executive Director Bhartesh Shah Chief Operations Officer Reuben Mbindu Chief Officer, Human Capital and Administration Brent Malahay Group Director, Strategy, Strategic Partnerships and Investor Relations James Mutuku Group Director, Treasury Julius Kayaboke Group Director of Customer Experience and Product Management Christine Browne Group Director Legal Services and Company Secretary Bildard Fwamba Chief Internal Auditor Gerald Warui Director, Operations and Customer Experience Elizabeth Gathai Director, Credit Philip Sigwart Director, SME Banking Allan Waititu Director, Special Projects John Wamai Director, ICT Enterprise Business Systems and Services David Nyamu Director, Marketing 5
Group Executive Management Polycarp Igathe Managing Director, Equity Bank Kenya Samuel Kirubi Managing Director, Equity Bank Uganda Anthony Kituuka Executive Director, Equity Bank Uganda Addis Ababa Othow Managing Director, Equity Bank South Sudan Hannington Namara Managing Director, Equity Bank Rwanda Robert Kiboti Managing Director, Equity Bank Tanzania Célestin Muntuabu Managing Director, Equity Bank Congo Jack Ngare Managing Director, Finserve Africa Eric Karobia Executive Director, Finserve Africa 6
Macroeconomic Operating Environment 7
Macro-economic & Operating Environment Interest Rates (Oct 2018) Changes in Central Bank Rate CBR (Year to Date) FX (Local Currency v/s USD) Inflation GDP Growth Change Year to Date Sep-18 (2018 Projected) 31-Oct-18 Kenya 9.0% -100 Basis Points 102 1% 5.7% 6.2% Tanzania 7.0% -250 Basis Points 2,290-2% 3.4% 6.8% Uganda 10.0% 100 Basis Points 3,768-3% 3.7% 5.8% Rwanda 5.5% 0 Basis Points 893-5% -1.1% 7.2% DRC 1,613-1% 10.7% 3.3% Monetary policy supportive of economic growth Central Bank rates reducing to stable across East Africa Exchange rate Marginal depreciation of local currencies Inflation Inflation within targeted range across East Africa Strong economic growth outlook - East Africa economic growth above 6% on average 8
Improvement in Macro-economic & Operating Environment Strong economic growth outlook East and Central Africa one of the fastest growing regions in the world with economic growth expected to grow above 6% for the east Africa region World Bank increased confidence in Kenya attractiveness Kenya Ease of Doing Business ranking by World Bank improved from position 80 to 61 KES strengthening Kes has continuously gained ground against the USD, regional peers and other SSA currencies. KES has gained 2%, 5%, 4%, 8% against USD, UGX, TZS and RWF respectively Renewed vigour to fight economic crimes leading to heightened expectations on compliance for financial institutions Establishment of Kenya Mortgage Refinance Company (KMRC) set to bolster liquidity for mortgage financiers and also promote the much needed Asset/Liability maturity match by the mortgage financiers 9
Macro-economic & Operating Environment The continuous drop in CBR This has put pressure on Yields on Loans. The CBR is down 100 basis points in 2018 Uninterrupted increase in LIBOR rates the international debt market s LIBOR rates continues to depress Kenyan banks' Net Interest Margins. 6-month USD LIBOR closed Oct 2018 at 2.8% against 1.58% end of Oct 2017. Parliament s surprise retention of interest capping law continues to hinder credit growth and rekindle revenue upswing. The abolition of interest rate floor on deposits however brings reprieve. 10
Equity Bank Business Model & Strategy- Post Interest Rate Capping (Adjusting and adapting to new norm) Focus areas: 1. Non-funded income growth 2. Treasury 3. Geographical and business diversification 4. Strengthening liquidity and balance sheet agility 5. Innovation and digitization 6. Efficiencies and cost optimization 7. Asset quality 8. Impact Investment & Social Brand Development 11
Focus Area 1: Non-funded Income Growth & Contribution In Kes Billion Loan Interest Income Growth Trend Total Interest Income Growth Trend Non Funded Income Growth Trend Contribution to Total Income 34.3 Treasury Interest Income -11% +9% 39.8 38.5 5.5 35.4 48.9 48.7 49.3 25.2 25.8 10.2 12.6 +28% -7% 21.3 19.8 Net Interest Income 32.3 27.5 29.5 16.6 Loan Interest Income 34.3 25.2 25.8 Non-Funded Income 16.6 21.3 19.8 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 12
Focus Area 1: Growth of Diversified Streams of Non-funded Income In Kes Million Fees & Commissions (Key Lines - Kenya) 2017 2018 +28% 1,144 859 +2% 880 892 +42% 640 239 +27% 302 +152% 355 452 141 SWIFT & RTGS Income Diaspora Commissions Bond Trading Income Trade Finance Gross Merchant Commission 13
Focus Area 2: Treasury In KES Billion Government Securities Portfolio In KES Billion Treasury Gross Income Contribution In KES Billion Treasury Income Mix Yield on Government Securities & Capital Gains 158.6 56.7 3% 58.3 18% 15.7 0.5 0.6 Declining yields highly compensated by mark-to-market gains on Government Securities 127.7 Treasury Income 13.2 (23%) 15.7 (27%) Interest Income Placements Bond Trading Income FX Income 13.2 0.5 0.4 2.6 (19%) 2.4 (15%) Yield on Govt securities 11.4% 11.3% Mark to Market (In Bn) All Other Income 43.4 (77%) 42.6 (73%) Interest Income Gov. Securities 9.8 (74%) 12.1 (78%) +77% 1.24 0.70 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 Note: Income calculation above is before funding costs 14
Focus Area 3: Geographical & Business Diversification Double digit growth in profitability by all non-kenyan subsidiaries Enhanced PAT contribution to Group at 18% In KES Billion Tanzania Rwanda Uganda S. Sudan DRC EIA EIB Finserve Total EBKL Diversification Contribution 2018 Diversification Contribution 2017 Deposit 19.7 19.3 22.1 5.3 41.7 108.2 309.9 26% 23% Growth 8% 31% 25% 0% 41% 26% 7% Loan 17.3 13.9 17.4 0.1 24.0 72.7 215.6 25% 22% Growth 3% 40% 42% -20% 19% 23% 5% Assets 28.7 26.7 31.1 8.6 53.7 0.9 0.7 2.0 152.6 424.3 26% 23% Growth 16% 39% 23% 0% 30% 34% -33% 0% 24% 5% PBT 0.55 0.78 0.89 0.27 1.00 0.45-0.01 0.09 4.0 18.27 18% 14% Growth 39% 70% 35% 53% 117% 5% -108% -40% 41% 3% PAT 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.1 2.9 12.79 18% 14% Growth 39% 70% 29% 15% 194% 5% -112% -58% 37% 3% 15
16 Focus Area 3: Geographical & Business Diversification
Focus Area 4: Balance Sheet Agility In KES Billion Group Other Liabilities Borrowed Funds Shareholders Funds 518.2 52.2 (10%) 90.1 (17%) Funding Split 7.2 (1%) +8% 560.4 11.2 56.2 (2%) (10%) 90.7 (16%) Growth per Funding Type 57% 8% 1% Group Other Assets Government Securities 518.2 50.3 (10%) 127.7 (25%) Asset Split +8% 560.4 35.0 (6%) 158.6 (28%) Growth per Asset Class -30% 24% Cash & Cash Equivalents 74.8 (14%) 78.4 (14%) 5% Deposits 368.8 (71%) 402.2 (72%) 9% Net Loans 265.4 (51%) 288.4 (51%) 9% 2017 2018 2017 2018 17
Focus Area 4: Balance Sheet Agility In KES Billion EBKL Other Liabilities Borrowed Funds Shareholders Funds 405.5 44.5 (11%) 66.3 (16%) Funding Split 5.7 (1%) +5% 424.3 41.4 (10%) 6.9 (2%) 66.0 (16%) Growth per Funding Type 21% -7% 0% EBKL Other Assets Government Securities 405.5 36.5 (9%) 118.6 (29%) Asset Split +5% 424.3 24.9 (6%) 147.0 (35%) Growth per Asset Class -32% 24% Cash & Cash Equivalents 44.2 (11%) 36.7 (9%) -17% Deposits 289.0 (71%) 309.9 (73%) 7% Net Loans 206.2 (51%) 215.6 (51%) 5% 2017 2018 2017 2018 18
Focus Area 4: Balance Sheet Agility 58% liquidity ratio makes the balance sheet agile for opportunistic growth & diversification strategies in case of change in the operating environment Liquidity (Kenya) Banking Sector (Kenya, Aug 2018) 59.4% 57.7% 53.2% 54.4% 54.2% 54.8% 56.0% 44.8% 47.7% 48.0% 48.4% 44.7% 42.9% 43.8% 45.4% 45.8% 43.8% 41.4% Liquidity (Group) Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Sep-16 42.7% Dec-16 47.6% Mar-17 50.6% Jun-17 51.1% Sep-17 52.1% Dec-17 54.2% Mar-18 55.2% Jun-18 57.1% Sep-18 55.0% Source: CBK 19
Focus Area 5: Innovation & Digitization Transformation from a place you go to; to something you do Most transaction are now done using the digital channels which have continued to grow Transforming the cost structure of the bank from fixed cost to variable cost with minimal investments due to use of 3 rd party infrastructure Transactions in millions 360 350 260 250 150 140 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 62 25 24 23 16 21 25 20 27 18 17 21 13 14 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2013 2014 2015 151 37 2016 252 50 2017 353 53 2018 Mobile (App & STK) Agent ATM Branch Internet Banking 20
Focus Area 5: Innovation & Digitization Leveraging Off Variable Cost 3 rd Party Infrastructure Variable cost channels Fixed cost channels 197.1-6% 185.4 54.6 +208% 168.0 Transaction numbers in millions +7% 49.8 53.4 +148% +23% 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 8.3 +36% 11.3 15.6 +6% 16.6 14.4-7% 13.5 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 Equitel EazzyApp EazzyBiz EazzyNet Agency Merchants ATM Branch 353.6 +20% 425.1 51.9 +71% 88.9 Transaction value in KES billion +106% 187.3 +3% 90.9 4.4 4.5 391.3 +17% 459.7 40.3 +34% 54.0 131.3 +16% 152.5 1,106 0% 1,107 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 21
Focus Area 5: Fintech Innovations in Merchant Banking The use of a Universal POS that converges Mobile Wallets, Cards & Digital payments +34% +16% 40,304 34,750 892 794 54,000 1,144 +28% +12% +18% +34% 14.3 12.1 9.0 Equity is leading in Acquiring and Issuing Best in class payment channel services work well with merchants 2016 2017 2018 Transaction Volumes in millions Commissions in millions 2016 2017 2018 NO. of outlets (000) 22
Focus Area 5: Fintech Innovations in Diaspora Remittances (KES millions) +282% 56,813 +54% 14,859 9,627 355 112 141 +152% +26% 2016 2017 2018 Diaspora Transaction Volumes (Kes M) Diaspora Commissions (Kes M) 23
Focus Area 5: Fintech Innovation & Digitization 97% of our Transactions outside the branch 2017 2018 Agency Branch Others ATM 4% 3% 5% 15% 2.6% 0.2% 2.4% Others Eazzy Biz & Eazzy Net Merchants Branch Others ATM 4% 3% 3% Agency 12% 2.8% 0.3% 2.5% Others Eazzy Biz & Eazzy Net Merchants 74% Mobile (Equitel & App) 79% Mobile (Equitel & App) 24
Focus Area 5: Fintech Innovation & Digitization 55% of our Transactions Value outside the branch Branches now handling high value transactions for SME, corporates and high networth individuals 2017 2018 6% 10% Eazzy Biz & Eazzy Net 4% Eazzy Biz & Eazzy Net 8% Merchants 2% Others ATM Others 6% 6% Merchants 2% Others ATM Others 6% 10% Agency 18% 51% Branch Agency 19% 45% Branch Mobile (Equitel & App) 19% 21% Mobile (Equitel & App) 25
Focus Area 5: Fintech Innovation & Digitization 93% of our Loan Transactions via Mobile Channel 2018 Transaction count 2018 Transaction value Branch Lending 7% 19% Mobile Lending 93% Mobile Lending 81% Branch Lending 26
Focus Area 5: Fintech Innovation & Digitization Finserve s M-KEY Cumulative Downloads 90,641 99,970 71,250 46,769 21,265 2 2,647 3,316 6,506 8,901 1-Sep-18 8-Sep-18 15-Sep-18 22-Sep-18 29-Sep-18 6-Oct-18 13-Oct-18 20-Oct-18 27-Oct-18 31-Oct-18 Cumulative Activations 46,142 51,567 34,137 23,392 1,398 1,790 4,106 5,698 10,293 1-Sep-18 8-Sep-18 15-Sep-18 22-Sep-18 29-Sep-18 6-Oct-18 13-Oct-18 20-Oct-18 27-Oct-18 31-Oct-18 27
Focus Area 5: Fintech Innovation & Digitization Finserve s M-KEY Cumulative Transactions Value (Mn) 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.3 5.1 7.9 11.5 15.3 17.8 1-Sep-18 8-Sep-18 15-Sep-18 22-Sep-18 29-Sep-18 6-Oct-18 13-Oct-18 20-Oct-18 27-Oct-18 31-Oct-18 Cumulative Transactions ("000") 255.5 309.0 171.8 96.0 0.0 7.7 12.4 20.0 27.2 47.6 1-Sep-18 8-Sep-18 15-Sep-18 22-Sep-18 29-Sep-18 6-Oct-18 13-Oct-18 20-Oct-18 27-Oct-18 31-Oct-18 Cumulative Loan Value (Mn) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.5 5.2 1-Sep-18 8-Sep-18 15-Sep-18 22-Sep-18 29-Sep-18 6-Oct-18 13-Oct-18 20-Oct-18 27-Oct-18 31-Oct-18 28
Focus Area 5: Fintech Innovation & Digitization Agency model becoming a net deposit mobilizer Agent Deposits growing an increasingly higher rate than Agent Withdrawals thus creating an exponential growth in Net Cash Deposited Cumulative Withdrawal Amount (Kes Bn) Cumulative Deposit Amount (Kes Bn) +20% +9% +21% 343 Cumulative Net Deposit Mobilized (Kes Bn) +38% +13% 284 227 6 +305% +427% 30 14 +66% +44% 56 44 +38% +17% 93 51 +34% +41% 128 72 +32% 171 95 237 107 116 8 25 49 77 +61% 142 100 177 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Quarterly cumulative data 29
Focus Area 6: Efficiencies & Cost Optimization Staff Cost Trend Other Expenses Trend (excluding staff cost) EBKL EBKL EBKL Cost to Income Ratio Trend Group (Including Loan Loss Provision) 12.7 12.4 11.6 49.3% 49.9% 48.3% 6.3 5.2 5.5 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 Group Group Group 18.7 20.2 18.7 56.0% 57.5% 54.8% 8.7 7.8 8.3 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 30
Focus Area 6: Efficiencies & Cost Optimization Group Net Interest Margin % 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.1 Yield on Interest Earning Assets % 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.8 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Cost of funds % 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 31
Focus Area 7: Asset Quality (Group) NPL s Sector vs EGH Plc as at 2018 Sector (Kenya) 12.4% 12.7% 12.0% Group 10.7% 10.6% 9.9% 8.8% 9.1% 9.5% 8.4% 8.7% 7.1% 7.3% 7.4% 6.8% 5.8% 6.3% 6.3% 4.6% NPL per sector as at 2018 14.7% 9.4% 5.4% 4.7% 8.7% Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Micro Enterprises SME Large Enterprises Agriculture Consumer Total NPL Coverage NPL per Country as at 2018 (IFRS 9-Gen. Prov. + Spec. Prov. + Int. Susp) / Gross NPL 40.9% 64.5% 65.4% 12.9% 9.1% 7.5% 5.7% 3.1% 2017 2018 S.SUDAN TANZANIA KENYA CONGO UGANDA RWANDA NB: The sector NPL of 12.7% is for Aug 2018 32
Focus Area 8: Impact Investment Impact & Social Investment Programs USD 343 M in Social Investment Programs Health Energy & Environment Conservation Agriculture Financial Education & Entrepreneurship 3% 5% 3% 2% Leadership Program 33% 54% Wings to Fly Scholarship Program 33
Focus Area 8: Impact Investment Shared Prosperity Business Model and its Social Impact TOTAL WINGS TO FLY SCHOLARS 172 3,643 1,500 10,641 15,168 UNIVERSITY SCHOLARS 465 attending or alumni of global universities 1Million Trees planted 40,000 Clean energy products distributed 14,168 15,168 12,488 10,572 8,569 6,557 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2017 GRADUATING CLASS 94% secondary school completion 69% attained university entry grades 86% take on school and community leadership roles USD 342,631,549 TOTAL FUNDS RAISED FOR CURRENT PROGRAMS 600,000 PEASANT FARMERS TRANSFORMED TO AGRI-BUSINESSES 2,616 1,657,587 Women and Youth Trained in Financial Education USD 0.36M Accessed in Loans Content availed through mobile channel USD 24M Cumulative Savings 39,070 MSMEs Trained USD 50M Accessed in Loans MEDIUM-SIZED FARMERS SUPPORTED Mobile & digital learning tools for Scholars MAMA for mothers Financial Education Wikipedia 34
Business Validation 35
36 Global Ratings & Accolades
Global Ratings & Accolades 37
38 2018 National Banking Awards & Accolades
2018 National Banking Awards & Accolades 39
Market Validation Market Capitalization NSE Market Capitalization (Kes B) as of Nov 1 2018 148 117 84 64 58 41 37 36 16 2 2 EQUITY KCB COOP STANCHART BBK DTK I&M CFC NIC HFC NBK Source: Financial Times 40
Intermediation & Financial Performance 41
Balance Sheet 2017 2018 Growth Assets 2017 2018 Growth Assets Net Loans 265.4 288.4 9% Net Loans 265.4 288.4 9% Cash & Cash Equivalents 74.8 78.4 5% Cash & Cash Equivalents 74.8 78.4 5% Government Securities Government Securities 127.7 127.7 158.6 158.6 24% 24% Other Other Assets Assets 50.3 50.3 35.0 35.0-30% -30% Total Total Assets Assets 518.2 560.4 560.4 8% 8% Liabilities Liabilities & Capital & Capital Deposits Deposits 368.8 368.8 402.2 402.2 9% 9% Borrowed Funds Borrowed Funds 52.2 52.2 56.2 56.2 8% 8% Other Liabilities 7.2 11.2 57% Other Liabilities 7.2 11.2 57% Shareholder s Funds 90.1 90.7 1% Shareholder s Funds Total Liabilities & Capital 90.1 518.2 90.7 560.4 1% 8% Total Liabilities & Capital 518.2 560.4 8% 42
8% Growth in PAT GROUP KES (Billion) 2017 2018 Growth % Interest Income 35.4 38.5 9% Interest Expense -7.9-9.0 13% Net Interest Income 27.5 29.5 7% Non-Funded Income 21.3 19.8-7% Total Income 48.7 49.3 1% Loan Loss Provision -2.9-1.3-54% Staff Costs -7.8-8.3 6% Other Operating Expenses -17.3-17.3 0% Total Costs -28.0-26.9-4% PBT 20.7 22.4 8% Tax -6.1-6.6 8% PAT 14.6 15.8 8% 43
RoAE & RoAA Trend RoAE 2017 2018 27.9% 26.7% 22.7% 23.0% EBKL Group RoAA 2017 2018 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9% EBKL Group 44
Financial Ratios Profitability EBKL EBKL Group Group 2017 2018 2017 2018 Yield on Loans 11.6% 11.1% 12.6% 12.1% Yield on Government Securities 11.3% 11.5% 11.4% 11.3% Yield on Interest Earning Assets 10.9% 10.7% 11.2% 10.8% Cost of Deposits 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% Cost of Funds 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% Net Interest Margin 8.3% 8.1% 8.6% 8.1% Cost to Income Ratio (with provisions) 49.9% 48.3% 57.5% 54.6% Cost to Income Ratio (without provision) 44.4% 47.0% 51.6% 51.9% RoAE 27.9% 26.7% 22.7% 23.0% RoAA 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9% Asset Quality Cost of Risk 1.2% 0.3% 1.4% 0.6% Leverage Loan / Deposit Ratio 71.3% 69.6% 72.0% 71.7% Capital Adequacy Ratios Core Capital to Risk Weighted Assets 15.5% 14.8% 19.8% 18.0% Total Capital to Risk Weighted Assets 16.2% 14.8% 20.5% 18.0% Liquidity Liquidity ratio 54.2% 57.7% 52.1% 55.0% 45
2018 Outlook Group Group 2018 Outlook 2018 Actual Loan Growth 10% - 15% 8.6% Deposit Growth 5% - 15% 9.1% Net Interest Margin 8.5% - 10% 8.1% Non Funded Income Mix 42% - 45% 40% Cost to Income Ratio 48% - 52% 51.9% Return on Equity 22% - 25% 23.0% Return on Assets 3.8% - 4.5% 3.9% Cost of Risk 0.8% - 1.2% 0.6% NPL 4% - 5.5% 8.7% Subsidiaries Contribution (Assets) 25% - 30% 26% Subsidiaries Contribution (PBT) 20% - 25% 18% 46
Ratios - Banking Subsidiaries RoAE RoAA Subsidiary 2017 2018 Subsidiary 2017 2018 EBKL 27.90% 26.66% EBKL 4.22% 4.11% EBUL 25.32% 23.32% EBUL 3.48% 3.23% EBRL 14.58% 21.96% EBRL 2.44% 3.01% EBTL 11.89% 16.44% EBTL 1.53% 1.89% DRC 5.93% 15.94% DRC 0.89% 2.01% EBSSL 6.90% 8.18% EBSSL 2.36% 3.16% Cost-to-Income Ratio Cost-to-Asset Ratio Subsidiary 2017 2018 Subsidiary 2017 2018 EBKL 44.42% 47.04% EBKL 6.00% 5.47% EBUL 57.00% 61.71% EBUL 10.66% 8.20% EBRL 58.63% 51.23% EBRL 7.93% 6.03% EBTL 66.91% 62.25% EBTL 7.09% 5.63% DRC 81.91% 68.61% DRC 12.46% 10.52% EBSSL 90.09% 66.14% EBSSL 21.46% 8.23% 47
48 Appendix
Private Sector Credit Growth Trend Private sector credit growth continues to be subdued mainly as a result of the interest rate capping effects 21.0% 21.2% 20.8% 19.5% 18.7% 18.0% 17.0% 16.0% 15.5% 13.5% 11.1% 8.6% 7.1% 5.3% 4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 4.3% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.0% 2.1% 2.8% 2.3% 1.9% 1.6% 2.0% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 49
Debt to GDP Kenya recorded a government debt equivalent to 57.1 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2017. This is expected to continue increasing trending at around 60 percent in 2018 and 65 percent in 2020. 42.8 47.0 48.1 47.1 38.2 39.8 44.2 48.8 53.8 57.1 60.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Trading Economics 50
Interest Rates - Kenya The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 30th Jul and reduced the Central Bank Rate (CBR) by 50 basis point to 9.0% from 9.5% in a response to a below-potential economic output. % 91 Days 182 Days 364 Days CBR 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 10.9 10.9 10.5 10.5 10.0 10.0 8.7 8.6 10.9 10.6 10.0 8.7 10.9 10.3 10.0 8.8 10.9 10.4 10.0 8.6 10.9 10.3 10.0 8.3 10.9 10.3 10.0 8.2 10.9 10.3 10.0 8.1 11.0 10.3 10.0 8.1 11.0 10.4 10.0 8.0 11.0 10.5 10.0 8.0 11.1 10.6 10.0 8.0 11.2 11.1 10.6 10.4 10.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 11.1 10.4 9.5 8.0 11.1 10.3 9.5 8.0 11.1 10.2 9.5 7.9 10.5 9.7 9.5 7.7 10.1 9.1 9.0 7.6 9.9 9.0 7.6 9.7 9.5 9.0 9.0 8.7 8.4 7.6 7.5 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2017 2018 51
Global Interest Rates USD Interest rates continue maintaining a growth trajectory adding pressure to Net Interest Margins for Kenyan banks with USD Debt. Equity Bank remains vigilant on its gross yields on USD Loans so as to adjust with any shift in cost of USD funds. USD 6 Month LIBOR Oct 2018 52
Foreign Exchange Kenya 105 YoY the Shilling has gained ground against the USD as 2018 recovers from drought and political rivalry that characterized 2017. Global oil prices steep recovery from Apr 2018 has however put slight pressure on the Shilling. The recently introduced VAT on fuel prices is expected to contribute further stress to the Shilling. Growth in Diaspora Remittances and tourism supported by the recent launch of Kenya-US Direct Flight is likely to ease the fuel pressure on the Shilling KES/USD 104 +1.5% 103 102 103.23 [29-Dec-17] 101 100 103.66 [2-Jan-17] -1.7% 99 100.05 [25-Apr-18] 101.74 [2-Nov-18] 1 0 2017 2018 53
Foreign Reserves Kenya Crude Oil Prices Recovery of global oil prices has contributed to the shrinking of FX reserves putting pressure on the Shilling from Apr 2018 FX reserves however remain above the recommended 4 months. Months of Import Cover Recommended Months of Import Cover 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.6 Oct- 17 Nov- 17 Dec- 17 Jan- 18 Feb- 18 Mar- 18 Apr- 18 May- 18 Jun- 18 Jul- 18 Aug- 18 Sep- 18 Oct- 18 Source: CBK & Financial Times 54
FX Selected East Africa Countries KES has gained ground against her East African peers and against the USD YoY +2% 104 102 100 103.69 100.36 101.85 KES/USD 98 40 38 36 35.20 36.91 UGX +5% 34 22 8 21.64 8.06 22.53 8.71 TZS RWF +4% +8% 0 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 55
Government Crowding Out the Private Sector The competition for credit The private sector continues to be disenfranchised in the credit market due to the ineffectiveness of the interest rate regime to price risk. This continues to squeeze the private sector credit growth despite the ever increasing loanable deposits. Gross Loans/Gross Deposits Gov t Domestic Lending/Gross Deposits Gross Deposits +10% 3.5 120 +11% 3.11 3.16 3.17 2.98 3.04 2.89 2.89 2.90 2.91 2.90 2.95 2.95 2.95 110 3.0 2.81 2.83 2.85 2.69 2.74 2.65 2.66 100 2.5 88% 89% 88% 87% 85% 90 83% 83% 82% 82% 82% 83% 84% 83% 83% 82% 82% 81% 80% 79% 78% 2.0 80 1.5 36% 35% 35% 36% 37% 39% 40% 40% 39% 40% 39% 39% 38% 39% 41% 41% 41% 41% 40% 42% 40 1.0 30 0.5 20 10 0.0 0 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Source: CBK & MONTHLY ECONOMIC Indicators 56
Kenya Government Bond Index Banks secure refuge in Government lending With interest rates continuing to decline banks take refuge in Government lending where the decline in interest rates is compensated by appreciation in Government securities value FTSE Kenya Government Bond Index 91.5 91.5 89.7 89.6 89.7 90.0 91.6 91.7 91.7 91.4 91.4 92.8 93.2 93.4 93.6 93.9 95.4 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Oct-18 Source: CBK & MONTHLY ECONOMIC Indicators 57
Maximum Lending Rates Banks secure refuge in Government lending With sector NPLs are increasing signaling heightened private sector credit risk the interest rates are dropping making pricing of 8.8% Kenyan Banking Sector NPLs 9.5% 9.9% 9.1% 10.7% 10.6% 12.4% 12.0% 12.7% risk difficult. Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 CBR Lending Rate 14.0 13.5 13.0 9.5 9.0 14.0% 10.0% 14.0% 13.5% 10.0% 9.5% 13.5% 13.0% 13.0% 9.5% 9.0% 9.0% 0.0 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Source: CBK & MONTHLY ECONOMIC Indicators 58
OUR INSPIRATION That when years turn our vision dim and gray, we shall still see beauty in the tired wrinkles of our faces and shall take confort out of the fact and knowledge that when we were given the opportunity, we did all we could to empower our people to exploit opportunities and realise their full potential on the road to economic prosperity. 59
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