CMD FINANCE NORWAY CMD

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Transcription:

Q4 CMD FINANCE NORWAY CMD LONDON, 10. MARCH 2016 CFO BJØRN ERIK NÆSS

DNB has delivered strong profit growth Net interest income NOK million Pre-tax operating profit before impairment NOK million 25 252 27 216 30 192 32 487 35 358 21 833 20 957 24 744 28 689 34 083 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Profit for the period NOK million 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Cost/income ratio Per cent 12 979 13 792 17 511 20 617 24 762 47.1 49.1 45.7 41.9 36.9 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2

Strong earnings and dividend development Earnings per share NOK 14.98 Dividend per share NOK 12.67 10.75 7.98 8.48 4.50 1) 3.80 2.00 2.10 2.70 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1) Proposed by the Board of Directors 3

Financial strength and ahead of schedule to deliver above CET 1 requirement of 15% by end of 2016 Return on equity 1) Per cent Equity NOK billion 11.4 11.7 13.1 13.8 14.5 117.8 127.2 141.9 158.7 190.1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CET 1 capital adequacy Per cent 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Leverage ratio 2) Per cent 9.4 10.7 11.8 12.7 14.4 4.9 4.6 5.3 6.0 6.7 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1) Return on equity is calculated on the assumption that additional Tier 1 capital is classified as a liability 2) Regulations for the calculation of Leverage Ratio changed during 2015 4

Financial ambitions 2016-2018 Guiding > 12% ROE Overriding target < 40% C/I ratio 1) Key performance indicator Stable volume-weighted spreads Lending growth 2-3% Stable risk-weighted assets ~15.5% CET1 2) in 2017 Requirement including management buffer >50% dividend When the capital level is reached Minimum 3% annual growth in commissions and fees 2016-2018: Normalised impairment level, uncertain timing Tax rate 24% in 2016-2017, and 21% in 2018 5 1) Towards 2018 2) Based on transitional rules 5

Slower speed ahead Increased unemployment but still growth in GDP GDP growth and unemployment Year on year, per cent 7% Mainland GDP growth Unemployment rate 6% 5.7 5% 4.4 4% 3% 2% 1.3 2.2 1% 0% -1% 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e -2% Source: Statistics Norway, DNB Markets forecasts 6

Development in Loan to Value, Residential Mortgages 35% Per cent 35% 30 June 2015 30% 25% 28% 30 Sept. 2015 31 Dec. 2015 20% 15% 15% 15% 10% 7% 5% 0% 0-40 40-60 60-75 75-85 >85 Collateral categories 7

Loan Book EAD by segments as at 31 December 2015 1) Private individuals 7% Commercial real estate 11% Shipping 7% Logistics 1% Oil, gas and offshore 7% Energy 3% Other corporate customers 6% Residential mortgages 42% Services 2% Telecom and media 2% Manufacturing 5% Trade 3% Public sector 2% Fishing and fish farming 2% 1) Exposure at default by customer segments as defined in DNB s management reporting including net non-performing and net doubtful loans and guarantees. 8

DNB s direct exposure to oil is manageable OSV and rig (2.4% of group EAD) are where we see the main challenges Oil & Gas EAD NOK 74 billion Oilfield Services EAD NOK 36 billion Offshore EAD NOK 62.5 billion 2,1 1,7 26 21 13,0 1,5 E&P large-caps and NOCs (IG) E&P mid-caps (sub IG) Reserve Based Lending Exploration Financing Facilities Midstream incl. LNG Refining & petchem Large-caps, IG companies Sub-investment grade Seismic LBOs challenged LBOs less challenged Other OSV Rig FPSO/FSO Subsea construction Other IG: Investment grade, E&P: Exploration & Production, LBO: Leveraged Buyout, RBL: Reserve Based Lending, OSV: Offshore Support Vessels, NOCs: National Oil Companies, F(P)SO: Floating (Production,) Storage and Offloading vessels 9

Appendix DNB results cont. The Norwegian Economy Loan book and asset quality

Full year 2015 Pre-tax operating profit before impairment in NOK billion 34.1 (28.7) Cost/income ratio in per cent 36.9 (41.9) Return on equity in per cent 14.5 (13.8) Earnings per share in NOK 14.98 (12.67) Common equity Tier 1 capital ratio in per cent (transitional rules) 14.4 (12.7) Proposed dividend in NOK 4.50 (3.80) Figures in parentheses refer to 2014 12

Development in loans and risk weighted assets NOK billion 1 543 1 439 1 438 1 391 1 341 1 089 1 121 1 129 31 Dec. 13 31 March 14 30 June 14 30 Sept. 14 31 Dec. 14 31 March 15 30 June 15 30 Sept. 15 31 Dec. 15 Loans at end of period Loans adjusted for exchange rate movements RWA 13

Development in average interest rate spreads customer segments Per cent 2.42 2.40 2.37 2.29 2.28 2.28 2.17 2.13 2.11 Lending spread 1.35 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.34 1.32 1.32 1.32 Combined spread - weighted average (0.33) (0.33) (0.31) (0.19) (0.17) (0.13) (0.02) 0.08 0.12 Deposit spread 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 14

Impairment of loans and guarantees Full year Full year Amounts in NOK million 4Q15 3Q15 2Q15 1Q15 4Q14 2015 2014 Personal customers 24 942 (58) 34 67 942 (118) - Mortgage loans 116 10 17 81 141 223 129 - Consumer finance (92) 932 (75) (46) (74) 719 (247) Small and medium-sized enterprises (341) (129) (284) (308) (450) (1 062) (838) Large corporates and international customers (686) (527) (425) (256) (496) (1 895) (1 024) - Nordic Corporates Division 12 (6) 5 15 (333) 25 (370) - International Corporates Division (72) (22) (93) 39 (166) (149) (291) - Shipping, Offshore and Logistics Division (382) (379) (302) (242) 21 (1 305) (166) - Energy Division (173) (88) (43) (12) (5) (317) (31) - Baltics and Poland (58) (12) (47) (50) (1) (168) (124) - Other units (12) (19) 56 (7) (13) 18 (42) Total individual impairment (1 002) 285 (767) (530) (879) (2 015) (1 980) Total collective impairment of loans (418) 106 101 (44) 58 (255) 341 Impairment of loans and guarantees (1 420) 392 (667) (575) (821) (2 270) (1 639) Total impairment in relation to average volumes (annualised) 1) (0.37 ) 0.10 (0.18) (0.16) (0.23) (0.15) (0.12) 1) Excluding the sale of non-performing loan portfolios, the ratio was (0.22) for 2015 15

Customer segments NOK million Pre-tax operating profit after impairment Full year 2015 Full year 2014 10 655 11 252 11 105 9 608 3 401 3 715 Personal customers Small and mediumsized enterprises Large corporates and international customers 16

Development in commissions and fees NOK million 1.1% growth 7 901 7 891 8 096 8 445 8 730 1) 8 815 1) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sale of insurance products Money transfer and banking services Asset management and custodial services Investment banking services Real estate broking Net commissions and fees 1) The figures for 2014 and 2015 are adjusted for income from public sector activities within life insurance that are in the process of being wound up 17

Profit development per quarter Pre-tax operating profit before impairment NOK million Profit for the period NOK million 6 964 9 273 7 396 8 125 9 290 6 533 6 363 6 804 4 965 5 062 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Cost/income ratio Per cent 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Return on equity 1) Per cent 42.2 37.0 42.8 39.6 28.1 12.6 16.1 12.1 14.7 15.0 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1) Return on equity is calculated on the assumption that additional Tier 1 capital is classified as a liability 18

Income statement Full year Full year Amounts in NOK million 4Q15 3Q15 2Q15 1Q15 4Q14 2015 2014 Net interest income 9 062 8 981 8 728 8 587 8 700 35 358 32 487 Net commissions and fees 2 082 2 080 2 489 2 212 2 313 8 862 8 969 Net gains on financial instruments at fair value 2 164 1 945 1 174 3 400 279 8 683 5 317 Net financial and risk result, DNB Livsforsikring 1) (662) 64 158 52 185 (390) 609 Net insurance result, DNB Forsikring 141 128 153 99 129 521 491 Other operating income 129 247 221 361 446 959 1 490 Net other operating income, total 3 853 4 463 4 194 6 124 3 352 18 635 16 877 Total income 12 915 13 444 12 923 14 711 12 052 53 993 49 363 Operating expenses (5 437) (5 103) (5 312) (5 215) (5 045) (21 068) (20 452) Restructuring costs and non-recurring effects 2) 1 811 (216) (215) (223) (42) 1 157 (223) Pre-tax operating profit before impairment 9 290 8 125 7 396 9 273 6 964 34 083 28 689 Net gains on fixed and intangible assets (9) (3) 45 12 42 45 52 Impairment of loans and guarantees (1 420) 392 (667) (575) (821) (2 270) (1 639) Pre-tax operating profit 7 860 8 514 6 774 8 710 6 184 31 858 27 102 3) Tax expense (1 084) (2 136) (1 695) (2 130) (1 236) (7 045) (6 463) Profit from operations held for sale, after taxes 28 (14) (17) (47) 16 (51) (22) Profit for the period 6 804 6 363 5 062 6 533 4 965 24 762 20 617 Profit attributable to shareholders 6 679 6 238 4 952 6 519 4 965 24 388 20 617 1) Transfer from risk equalisation fund: (980) 2) Transition from defined-benefit to defined-contribution pension scheme: 1 969 3) Sale under the exemption model and lower tax rates 19

Net gains on financial instruments Change 3Q15-4Q14 - Amounts in NOK million 4Q15 3Q15 4Q14 4Q15 4Q15 Customer revenues in DNB Markets 628 508 549 121 80 Trading revenues in DNB Markets (excl. CVA/DVA) 782 474 94 308 688 Credit spread effects on bonds in DNB Markets (235) (582) (196) 347 (39) Financial guarantees 187 228 232 (41) (45) Basis swaps (4) 933 508 (937) (512) CVA/DVA 367 (414) (489) 781 855 Other mark-to-market adjustments 439 798 (419) (359) 858 Net gains on financial instruments at fair value 2 164 1 945 279 219 1 885 20

Changes in net interest income NOK million From 4th quarter 2014 to 4th quarter 2015 451 230 (41) (76) (88) (114) 9 062 8 700 4Q14 Exchange rate effects Lending and deposit volumes Other net interest income Equity and non-interest bearing items Long-term funding Lending and deposit spreads 4Q15 21

Changes in net other operating income NOK million From 4th quarter 2014 to 4th quarter 2015 2 397 133 (84) (221) (232) ( 512) (980) 3 853 3 352 4Q14 Net gains on other financial instruments Net financial and risk result from DNB Livsforsikring Other operating income Net realised gains from the sale of loan portfolios Net commissions and fees Basis swaps Transfer of risk equalisation fund 4Q15 22

DNB Livsforsikring profit development and Solvency II Full year Full year Amounts in NOK million 4Q15 4Q14 2015 2014 Upfront pricing of risk and guaranteed rate of return 169 202 658 751 Return on corporate portfolio 117 99 548 707 Owner's share of administration result 133 84 347 224 Owner's share of risk result 147 215 518 520 Transferred from/(to) security reserve 19 3 (0) (18) Owner's share of interest result 456 43 572 511 Pre-tax operating profit before provisions for higher life expectancy 1 041 646 2 643 2 696 Provisions for higher life expectancy 1) (440) (124) (820) (852) Transfer of risk equalisation fund (980) - (980) - Pre-tax operating profit (379) 522 843 1 844 Tax expense 730 65 692 (252) Profit for the period 351 587 1 535 1 592 86 Solvency II margin Per cent 171 113 192 3Q15 4Q15 Without transitional rules With transitional rules 1) At year-end 2015, provisions amounted to NOK 9.5 billion of the estimated total requried increase in reserves of NOK 11.6 billion. Of the remaining required increase in reserves of NOK 2.1 billion, NOK 0.8 billion must be covered by the owner 23

Changes in operating expenses full year Full year Full year Change in Amounts in NOK million 2015 Change 2014 per cent Total adjusted operating expenses (21 068) (616) (20 452) (3.0) Of which: Exchange rate effects for units outside Norway (507) Currency-adjusted operating expenses (20 560) (109) (20 452) (0.5) Total adjusted operating expenses (21 068) (616) (20 452) Income-related costs Ordinary depreciation on operational leasing (81) Expenses directly related to operations Other costs 251 Properties and premises 177 Fees (77) Pension expenses (187) Salaries and other personnel expenses (191) Exchange rate effects for units outside Norway (507) Non-recurring effects 1 157 1 380 (223) Restructuring costs, employees (390) (150) (239) Other restructuring costs and non-recurring effects 1) 1 781 1 695 86 IT restructuring (234) (164) (70) Operating expenses (19 910) 764 (20 675) 3.7 1) Primarily due to the transition from a defined-benefit pension scheme to a defined-contribution pension scheme 24

Net non-performing and net doubtful loans and guarantees 1) Per cent 1.55 1.50 1.50 1.38 NOK billion 1.19 1.05 1.01 0.96 0.83 0.77 0.78 0.76 18.4 19.5 19.7 20.7 16.4 16.1 14.9 17.3 13.9 13.1 13.6 14.0 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 March 30 June 30 Sept. 31 Dec 31 March 30 June 30 Sept. 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 DNB Group As a percentage of net loans 1) Includes non-performing commitments and commitments subject to individual impairment. Accumulated individual impairment is deducted. 25

Balance sheets DNB Group DNB Bank ASA 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. Amounts in NOK billion 2015 2014 2015 2014 Deposits with central banks 19 59 16 54 Due from credit institutions 301 373 631 608 Loans to customers 1 543 1 439 706 723 Other assets 735 779 613 613 Total assets 2 599 2 649 1 965 1 998 Due to credit institutions 162 214 262 269 Deposits from customers 944 942 896 903 Short-term debt securities issued 160 207 160 207 Long-term debt securities issued 645 605 180 160 Other liabilities and provisions 498 523 315 332 Additional Tier 1 capital 8 8 Other equity 182 159 143 128 Total liabilities and equity 2 599 2 649 1 965 1 998 Ratio of deposits to net loans (%) 61.2 65.4 127.1 124.8 Adjusted ratio of deposits to net loans (%) 1) 60.5 63.5 125.5 121.0 Total combined assets 2 901 2 936 1 965 1 998 Currency-adjusted loans to customers 1 486 671 Currency-adjusted deposits from customers 904 859 1) Excluding short-term money market deposits 26

Common equity Tier 1 capital ratio 1) Transitional rules Per cent Leverage ratio 2) Per cent 12.7 12.7 13.0 13.1 14.4 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.7 6.7 31 Dec. 2014 15.1 31 March 2015 Future Basel III estimate 2) 14.6 30 June 2015 Per cent 30 Sept. 2015 15.2 15.4 31 Dec. 2015 16.2 31 Dec. 2014 31 March 2015 Estimate applying average weights used by Swedish banks 2) 3) 18.3 18.8 30 June 2015 Per cent 19.8 30 Sept. 2015 20.3 31 Dec. 2015 21.7 31 Dec. 2014 31 March 2015 30 June 2015 30 Sept. 2015 31 Dec. 2015 31 Dec. 2014 31 March 2015 30 June 2015 30 Sept. 2015 31 Dec. 2015 1) Common equity Tier 1 capital includes 50 per cent of interim profits in all quarters, apart from the leverage ratio figures. Annual figures are exclusive of dividend payments. 2) The calculations from end-june 2015 have been altered in accordance with the proposed new rules 3) Average weights used by Swedish banks on corporate loans and loans secured by real estate 27

Changes in the common equity Tier 1 capital ratio Per cent From 31 Dec. 2014 to 31 Dec. 2015 0.6 0.4 0.2 (0.3) (0.7) 2.2 (0.7) 14.4 12.7 31 Dec. 2014 Profits for the year prior to dividend Increased capital efficiency Other changes in CET1 capital Other effects Currencyadjusted growth Currency effect on existing portfolio Dividend 31 Dec. 2015 28

Appendix DNB results cont. The Norwegian Economy Loan book and asset quality

Oil investments will stay high from a historical perspective Such fluctuations are not new Petroleum investments in Norway NOK billion, share of GDP in per cent 250 Constant 2013 prices (lha) Share of Mainland-GDP (rha) 10 9 200 8 7 150 6 5 100 4 3 50 2 1 0 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 0 Source: Thomson Datastream, DNB Markets 30

The sovereign wealth fund adds flexibility Government Pension Fund Global Beginning of the year, NOK billion Oil income versus spending 2005 2016, NOK billion 9 000 Annual net petro cash flow Annual return, GPFG 8 000 Annual actual "spending of oil-money" 7 000 600 6 000 500 5 000 400 4 000 300 3 000 200 2 000 100 1 000 0 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Ministry of Finance (National Budget 2016), DNB Markets, NBIM 31

Appendix DNB results cont. The Norwegian Economy Loan book and asset quality

Loan Book EAD by segments as at 31 December 2015 1) Private individuals 7% Commercial real estate 11% Shipping 7% Logistics 1% Oil, gas and offshore 7% Energy 3% Other corporate customers 6% Residential mortgages 42% Services 2% Telecom and media 2% Manufacturing 5% Trade 3% Public sector 2% Fishing and fish farming 2% 1) Exposure at default by customer segments as defined in DNB s management reporting including net non-performing and net doubtful loans and guarantees. 33

Fragmented shipping market Dry bulk and container at cyclical lows, other segments higher in cycle Dry bulk and container markets are challenging other earnings are satisfactory Clarkson index; rebased, average earnings 250 200 150 Tankers LPG Bulkers Container Dry bulk recovery postponed, at least to 2017 Dry bulk outlook adjusted down again as uncertainty increases. Chinese demand is slowing down more than expected while fleet growth will exceed demand growth. Scrapping and lay-ups will increase. 14% of cape fleet older than 15 years. Rates below operating cost and values have fallen 20-30% since end October. Many bulk clients have diversified fleets. 100 Container: Overcapacity gives record low freight rates. Fleet growth slowing in 2016. Portfolio focus on leading operators. 50 0 2008-jan 2009-jan 2010-jan 2011-jan 2012-jan 2013-jan 2014-jan 2015-jan 34

DNB s direct exposure to oil is manageable OSV and rig (2.4% of group EAD) are where we see the main challenges Oil & Gas EAD NOK 74 billion Oilfield Services EAD NOK 36 billion Offshore EAD NOK 62.5 billion 2,1 1,7 26 21 13,0 1,5 E&P large-caps and NOCs (IG) E&P mid-caps (sub IG) Reserve Based Lending Exploration Financing Facilities Midstream incl. LNG Refining & petchem Large-caps, IG companies Sub-investment grade Seismic LBOs challenged LBOs less challenged Other OSV Rig FPSO/FSO Subsea construction Other IG: Investment grade, E&P: Exploration & Production, LBO: Leveraged Buyout, RBL: Reserve Based Lending, OSV: Offshore Support Vessels, NOCs: National Oil Companies, F(P)SO: Floating (Production,) Storage and Offloading vessels 35

Rigged for the downturn DNB s clients relatively strong; preparing for challenging 2017 E&P spending is falling; rig fleet is growing Day rates have fallen Average for deepwater rigs around USD 200k per day Deepwater rig utilization below 80%, expected to fall below 70% in 2016. Many newbuilding cancellations/postponements are positive to the balance. No improvement in overall market balance expected until 2018. Need to see Oil price at higher level Results from oil co s cost cutting Capacity (rigs) taken out 53 floaters older than 30 years DNB s clients well equipped for 2016; a number of restructurings required in 2017 36

OSV needs to restructure from 2016 Ongoing discussions to find balanced solutions OSV demand is falling towards 2010 level Historical and expected demand; number of ships 2000-2018e Downturn hits earlier for OSV than for rigs 1 750 AHTS PSV Reduced rig activity leads to reduced OSV demand. 1 500 1 250 Estimated utilisation 2016-18 around 60% for AHTSs and below 50% for PSVs. Around 9-10% of the fleet is lay-up. 1 000 Weaker balance sheets and shorter contracts. 750 500 Primarily leading operators with a long history with DNB and a modern and flexible fleet. 250 0 2000 2006 2012 2018e Most of our clients will encounter covenant issues over next two years. Advanced discussions and negotiations ongoing with clients facing cash flow and financing issues in 2016. Individual differences with regard to war chests and equity reserves. AHTS: Anchor Handling Tug Supply, PSV: Platform Supply Vessel Source: Companies, DNB Markets, IHS Petrodata 37

Oil-related portfolio 51 % is low risk, 38 % is medium risk and 9% is high risk DNB s oil-related portfolio split by sub-segment By exposure (EaD) and risk grade Total oil related segments Oil and Gas NOK billion 100 30 June 2014 30 Sept. 2014 90 82 31 Dec. 2014 80 31 March 2015 30 June 2015 70 61 30 Sept. 2015 60 31 Dec. 2015 50 40 30 20 10 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 PD 0.01% - PD 0.75% - PD 3.0% - Offshore NOK billion 100 30 June 2014 30 Sept. 2014 90 31 Dec. 2014 80 31 March 2015 30 June 2015 70 30 Sept. 2015 60 31 Dec. 2015 11 39 PD 0.01% - PD 0.75% - PD 3.0% - 12 14 1 3 Net non-performing and net doubtful commitments Net non-performing and net doubtful commitments NOK billion 100 30 June 2014 90 30 Sept. 2014 31 Dec. 2014 80 31 March 2015 70 30 June 2015 60 58 30 Sept. 2015 31 Dec. 2015 50 40 30 20 10 0 50 40 30 20 10 0 Oilfield services 16 PD 0.01% - PD 0.75% - PD 3.0% - 14 6 1 1 Net non-performing and net doubtful commitments NOK billion 100 30 June 2014 30 Sept. 2014 90 31 Dec. 2014 80 31 March 2015 30 June 2015 70 30 Sept. 2015 60 31 Dec. 2015 PD 0.01% - PD 0.75% - PD 3.0% - 1 1 Net non-performing and net doubtful commitments EaD: Exposure at Default, PD: Probability of default. Risk grade system, please see backup slide for details. DNB's risk classification system, where 1 represents the lowest risk and 10 the highest risk. Figures from Fact book as at 31 Dec 2015. 38

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Q4 HERE FOR YOU. EVERY DAY. WHEN IT MATTERS THE MOST.