Jyske Bank in brief 3

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Transcription:

Jyske Bank Q1 213

Agenda Jyske Bank in brief Macro Economy & Danish Banking 213-214 Focus in Q1 213 Strategic issues Jyske Banks performance 1968-212 Volumes Capital Structure Liquidity Q1 213 in figures Credit quality Danish FSA Fact Book 2

Jyske Bank in brief 3

Jyske Bank in brief Jyske Bank focuses on core business Description Branch Network Established and listed in 1967 2nd largest Danish bank by lending Total lending of approx. DKK 129bn 111 domestic branches Approx. 675, domestic customers Business focus is on Danish private individuals, SMEs and international private and institutional investment clients International units in Hamburg, Zürich, Gibraltar, Cannes and Weert A de-centralised organisation 3,86 employees (end of Q1 213) Full-scale bank with core operations within retail and commercial banking, customer driven trading, asset management and private banking Flexible business model using strategic partnerships within life insurance (PFA), mortgage products (Nykredit, DLR, BRF), credit cards (SEB), IT operations (JN Data) and IT R&D (Bankdata) 4

Jyske Bank in brief Jyske Bank wants to be Denmark s most customer-oriented bank by providing high standard personal financial advice and taking a genuine interest in customers Jyske Bank has a differentiation strategy Jyske Differences The strategy is to position Jyske Bank as a visible and distinct alternative to more traditional providers of financial services, with regard to distribution channels, products, branches, layout and communication forms Equal treatment and long term relationships with stakeholders Core values driven by common sense Strategic initiatives: Valuebased management Differentiation Risk management Efficiency improvement Acquisitions 5 199 1996 22 26 (Q4) 211/212

Macro Economy & Danish Banking 213 6

Jyske Bank forecasts The Danish economy 21-214 214 212 Real growth (%) DKKbn 21 211 212 213* 214* Private spending 9 1.7 -.5.6.7 1.5 Public spending 522.4-1.5.2 1..8 Fixed gross investment 32-2.4 2.8 2.2.8 3.5 Inventory investment** -6 1..5 -.4.1. Exports 994 3. 6.5.9 2.2 3.3 Imports 913 3.2 5.6 2.5 2.4 3.5 Gross domestic product (GDP) 1817 1.6 1.1 -.5.8 1.6 Current account - DKKbn - percentage of GDP 14 5.9 11 5.6 95 5.2 9 4.8 85 4.4 Public budget balance - DKKbn - percentage of GDP -47-2.7-35 -2. -75-4. -15 -.8-55 -2.9 Unemployment -Unemployed (thousands), gross - Percentage of the workforce 165 5.7 162 5.6 163 5.7 165 5.7 166 5.8 Employment (thousands) 2.775 2.767 2.754 2.75 2.748 Inflation (%) 2.3 2.8 2.4 1.6 1.7 Wage index(manufacturing industry, %) 2.5 2.2 1.9* 1.9 2.1 House prices (nominal prices, %) 2.8-2.7-3..5 2. Nationalbanken s lending rate, year-end end 1.5.7.2.4.7 * Jyske Bank's forecast ** Contribution to growth as a percentage of preceding year's GDP 7

The Danish economy: - currently in a low growth mode Denmark is a small open economy affected by the slow down in the EURO area and private saving is still record high both in households and the SME/corporate sectors 1, 1, 7,5 7,5 % % 5, 5, Growth in Growth in % of GDP 2,5, 2,5, % of GDP -2,5-2,5-5, 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12-5, Source: Danmarks Statistik 8

with subdued sentiment indicators 9

and a private sector that is reluctant to lend 1

Why are Danish households so reluctant to spend? Burst of the housing bubble : Average LTVs in Danish housing market 27 : approx. 45 % 212 : shy of 7 % Combined with the financial crisis: -Net wealth 25 % below peak levels in 27 and slightly higher than in 24 and Increased household leverage Index 2 8=1 Index 2 8=1 11

Household debt is high, but assets are high too. also in international comparison 1,2 1, Households balance sheet (21) 1,2 1, 8 8 income % of disp. 6 4 2 6 4 2 income % of disp. -2-2 -4-4 NO FI US PT IE DE AT SE DK CA AU JP GR NL FR IT Housing Pension Other assets Liabilities Net wealth GB BE ES Source: Danmarks Nationalbank 12

.and Denmark has a healthy public sector economy 13

and overall strong structural features Net assets against the rest of the world (21) Denmark net assets against the rest of the world are significantly higher today : around 35 % of GDP % of GDP 125 1 75 5 25-25 -5-75 -1-125 PT IR GR ES IT US GB CAAT FR SE FI DK NL DE JP BE NO 125 1 75 5 25-25 -5-75 -1-125 % of GDP Source: Danmarks Nationalbank 14

ensure low interest rates, and unemployment has been stable for more than two years 8 8 7 7 25, 25, 6 6 2, 2, 5 4 5 4 15, 15, 3 3 1, 1, 2 1 jan 2 1 jul jan jul jan jul jan jul jan jul jan jul jan 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 Denmark Germany Spain Italy Source: Reuters EcoWin 5, 5,,, 2 4 6 8 1 12 Denmark Euro area Sweden Norway UK Spain Source: Reuters EcoWin 15

causing only few household defaults. But the business sector still suffers from weak demand 16

The outlook for 213: subdued growth in an overall strong economy The slowdown is set to continue through 213 due to a weak Euro area, weak real wage development, and continued private sector saving However, some improvement is likely driven by a stronger housing market and rising economic sentiment in Europe, in general A small fiscal tightning in 213 is counteracted by government initiated investments The overall structural features of the Danish economy continue to look strong with large net foreign assets, a current account surplus at 5.7 % of GDP in 212, and a low public debt level. 17

Market conditions Shrinking volumes also in 213 Earnings capacity close to maximum; further growth via higher volumes Capital shortage in some banks due to maturing Tier II capital instruments More stringent assessment of solvency requirement (Pillar I+) can lead to lower capital buffers in some banks Strategic capital to acquire portfolios limited and only a few larger banks are interested 18

Focus in Q1 213 19

Focus in Q1 213 ROE pre tax 14.3% (opening equity) satisfactory Spar Lolland DKKm Fair value adjustments of acquired net assets 97 Layoffs in 213 and anticipated staff reductions in 214-54 Rental obligations -21 Other integration costs -4 Effect on operations in Q1 213 18 Expected integration costs -25 Net -7 Solvency ratio 15% due to acquisition and redemption of Tier II. Capital buffer 5.3 percentage points Strategy to acquire and capital target are unchanged 2

Strategic issues 21

Strategic issues Spar Lolland Bank loans DKK 6.3bn, bank deposits DKK 9.5bn, total assets DKK 13bn Branch mergers finalized by Q2 213 It migration and further staff reduction in Q2 214 Long term earnings fully in line with earnings from other branches Capital Core Tier 1:13.7% Redemption of Tier 2 loan DKK 1.1bn in april 213 4 Tier 2 issues DKK.3bn CRD IV: expected.2-.5 pp. Jyske Bank proposed to become a systemic bank in Denmark among 6 institutions in DKK Liquidity Liquidity reserve DKK 5bn; liquidity after 12 mths run-off DKK 14bn Acquisitions with deposits surplus; Fjordbank Mors approx. DKK 1bn; Spar Lolland approx. DKK 2.5bn Benchmark issue of EUR 5m 2.5 year FRN in Q4 212 (Euribor + 117bp) Issued AAA-rated bonds via BRFkredit DKK 4bn by Q1 213 Refinancing of all 213 redemptions of senior debt (EMTNs) fully accomplished 22

Jyske Bank performance 1968-212 23

Profit before tax and DPCA DKKm 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 28 29 21 211 212 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % DKKm 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q1212 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% -25% Profit before tax DPCA Profit before tax DPCA ROE (pre-tax) ROE (pre-tax before DPCA) ROE (pre-tax) ROE (pre-tax before DPCA) 24

4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% 5% Pre-tax prof it (ROE on avg. equity) 11% 87% Average: 19% 1968 1972 1976 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 25

Volumes 26

Bank loans and deposits 14 12 12 1 DKKbn 1 DKKbn 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 28 29 21 211 212 Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q1212 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213 Bank loans Bank deposits Bank loans Bank deposits Bank loans: Spar Lolland +5.8% Bank loans: 4.1% y/y 5.4% q/q 27

Capital Structure 28

Capital structure Core Tier 1 above 12% Optimize risk and maximize earnings Exploit the market to buy portfolios with an acceptable risk pct 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 28 29 21 211 212 pct 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q1212 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213 Core Tier 1 Hybrid Tier 1 Tier 2 Core Tier 1 Hybrid Tier 1 1,4 Tier 2 Core Tier 1: 13.7% Tier 1: 14.3%; 2 perpetuals DKK 1.3bn Solvency: 15.%; 4 Tier II issues DKK.3bn; Capital buffer 5.3 pp Spar Lolland RWA DKK 5.8bn 29

Liquidity 3

Liquidity position and run-off 6 5 4 DKKbn 3 2 1 31.3.213 31

Senior unsecured funding strategy Jyske will be a rare but regular issuer on the EMTN market Funding plans will depend on developments in the balance sheet (funding gap) and integrated part of policy is to maintain a deposit/loan ratio in the region of 9-1 % -but: DKKbn Jyske Bank will continue to maintain a conservative funding profile (May 213) 9,5 9 8,5 8 7,5 7 6,5 6 5,5 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1,5 Integrated part of funding strategy to preserve a presence in the debt capital markets Looking at our maturity profile we will have an ongoing refinancing need in the years ahead Expect approximately one public benchmark a year and ongoing activities in the private placement market With a very limited funding gap, solid core deposits and the BRFKreditagreement new issue focus will be on 3 year maturities in 213 Refinancing of all 213 redemptions has been accomplished: 1)Via BRFKredit DKK 4.1bn (July 212-January 213) 2)Via senior unsecured 7bn all issued during 212: 2-3 year private placements of DKK 3bn (EUR 4m) 2.5 year public benchmark FRN of DKK 3.7bn (EUR 5m) 213 214 215 216 217 218 222 226 '>23 DKK 4,35bn covered bonds issued via BRFkredit in July 212, October 212, January 213 and April 213 32

Q1 213 in figures 33

Net Interest Income 5, 1,2 DKKm 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 DKKm 1,18 1,16 1,14 1,12 1,1 1,8 1,6 1,4 1, 1,2 5 1, 28 29 21 211 212 Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q1212 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213 34

Return/risk-trade off 11 5% 14 6% DKKbn 18 16 14 12 1 98 4% 3% 2% 1% DKKbn 12 1 8 6 4 2 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 96 28 29 21 211 212 % Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q1212 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213 Risk weighted assets NII/RWA (rhs) Risk weighted assets NII/RWA (rhs) 35

Fee and commision income 1,8 6 DKKm 1,6 1,4 1,2 DKKm 5 4 1, 3 8 6 4 2 1 2 3 28 29 21 211 212 Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q1212 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213 25 DKKm 2 15 1 5 Securities trading and safe-custody services Money transfers and card payments Loan management fees Guarantee commission Other fees and commissions 36 Q1212 Q1213

Net interest and fee income DKKm 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 37% 63% 27% 31% 23% 23% 69% 77% 77% 73% DKKm 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 23% 77% 22% 78% 22% 78% 25% 75% 26% 74% 24% 76% 26% 74% 32% 68% 28% 72% 28 29 21 211 212 Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q1212 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213 Net interest income Net fee and commision income Net interest income Net fee and commision income 37

Value adjustments 9 2 DKKm 8 7 6 DKKm 1 5 4-1 3-2 2 1-3 -4-1 2 28 29 21 211 212 Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q1212 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213 DKKm 15 1 5-5 -1 Bonds Shares, etc. Currency Derivatives Other assets Issued bonds Other liabilities 38 Q1212 Q1213

Gross earnings 6,7 6,6 6,5 6,4 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 39 DKKm DKKm Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q1212 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213 6,3 6,2 6,1 6, 5,9 28 29 21 211 212

Operating expenses and employees DKKm 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 28 29 21 211 212 4,1 4, 3,9 3,8 3,7 3,6 3,5 3,4 3,3 DKKm 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q1212 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213 3,9 3,85 3,8 3,75 3,7 3,65 3,6 3,55 3,5 3,45 3,4 Operating expenses, depreciation and amortisation Number of full-time employees (rhs) Operating expenses, depreciation and amortisation Number of full-time employees (rhs) 4

Core earnings before loan impairment charges 3,5 8 3, 2,5 7 6 5 DKKm DKKm 2, 4 1,5 3 1, 5 28 29 21 211 212 2 1 Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q1212 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213 41

Loan impairment charges 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 42 DKKm DKKm Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q1212 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213 28 29 21 211 212

Core earnings 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 6 4 2 43 DKKm DKKm Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q1212 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213 1, 8 6 4 2 28 29 21 211 212-2 -4-6 -8

Earnings from investment portfolios 7 25 6 5 4 2 15 44 DKKm DKKm 3 2 1 1 5 Q1212 Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213-1 28 29 21 211 212

Credit quality 45

Loans and advances split by sector Jyske Bank A/S Loans, advances and guarantees Balance of loan impairment charges and provisions for guarantees Impairment charges and provisions for guarantees for the period Loss for the period Loans, advances and guarantees as well as loan impairment charges and provisions for guarantees by sector Q1 213 End-212 Q1 213 End-212 Q1 213 End-212 Q1 213 Q1 212 Public authorities 7,568 6,624 Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing 8,482 8,192 76 619 9 98 2 13 Fishing industry 2,515 2,433 4 39 14 Milk producers 1,468 1,533 34 29 58 48 19 36 Plant production 1,319 1,68 24 25 1 7 8 Pig farming 1,851 1,818 246 211 3 16 1 32 Other farming 1,329 1,34 56 54 1 13 54 Manufacturing, mining, etc. 7,434 6,619 16 173 42 26 62 3 Energy supply 3,49 2,742 12 13-1 -1 Building and construction 2,398 2,234 55 74 2 1 22 7 Commerce 8,147 7,279 226 241 14 17 32 14 Transport, hotels and restaurants 3,14 2,961 6 37 21 16 3 2 Information and communication 476 447 18 5 11-2 2 Finance and insurance 39,258 35,26 55 55 1 47 12 63 Real property 1,719 9,86 1,6 1,51 3 74 26 28 Lease of real estate 8,514 8,361 49 392 15 54 26 25 Buying and selling of real estate 1,136 675 15 92 11 15 3 Other real estate 1,69 824 546 567 4 5 Other sectors 5,546 4,82 22 278-38 22 3 19 Corporate customers, individually assessed, total 89,9 8,162 3,49 3,41 181 37 27 268 Corporate customers, collective impairment charges 783 717 6 23 5 Personal customers, individually assessed 45,55 43,385 44 446 2 47 44 75 Personal customers, collective impairment charges 249 263-8 14 5-1 Total 141,632 13,171 4,485 4,467 235 391 261 342 46

Loans and advances split by sector Jyske Bank A/S Loans, advances and guarantees as well as loan impairment charges and provisions for guarantees (DKKm) Loans, advances and guarantees Balance of loan impairment charges and provisions for guarantees Loans, advances and guarantees Balance of loan impairment charges and provisions for guarantees Loss for the period/loans, advances Loan impairment charges for the period/loans, advances Q1 213 Q1 213 Change in pct. Change in pct. Pct. Pct. Public authorities 7,568 67.4%.%.% Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing industry 8,482 76 12.6% 25.%.2% 1.1% Fishing industry 2,515 4 44.1% 39.6%.%.% Milk producers 1,468 34-11.2% 45.9% 1.3% 4.% Plant production 1,319 24 43.1% 97.%.%.1% Pig farming 1,851 246 -.6% -3.4%.1% 1.6% O ther farming 1,329 56-1.5% 54.7%.%.1% Manufacturing and mining, etc. 7,434 16-2.2% 6.%.8%.6% Energy supply 3,49 12 46.4% -25.%.%.% Building and construction 2,398 55 21.7% -43.9%.9%.1% Commerce 8,147 226 7.6% -6.6%.4%.2% Transport, hotels and restaurants 3,14 6-4.5% 42.9%.1%.7% Information and communication 476 18-5.% 157.1%.% 2.3% Finance and insurance 39,258 55 1.8% 14.1%.%.% Real property 1,719 1,6 3.3% 27.6%.2%.3% Lease of real estate 8,514 49-4.% -26.%.3%.2% Buying and selling of real estate 1,136 15 74.7% -23.1%.% 1.% O ther real estate 1,69 546 25.8% 287.1%.%.4% Other sectors 5,546 22 3.2% -21.1%.5% -.7% Corporate customers, individually assessed, total 89,9 3,49 3.8% 13.3%.2%.2% Corporate customers, collective impairment charges 783 56.6% Personal customers, individually assessed 45,55 44 2.5% 19.9%.1%.% Personal customers, collective impairment charges 249 27.7% Total 141,632 4,485 5.7% 2.5%.2%.2% 47

Large exposures per cent of capital base 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 28 29 21 211 212 Q1 213 48

Balance of loan impairment charges DKKm 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 28 29 21 211 212 DKKm 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q1212 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213 Balance of loan impairment charges Losses Balance of loan impairment charges Losses 49

Balance of loan impairment charges per cent of loans and advances 4.% 4.% 3.5% 3.5% 3.% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.5%.%.% 28 29 21 211 212 Q1211 Q2211 Q3211 Q4211 Q1212 Q2212 Q3212 Q4212 Q1213 5

Exposures by credit rating Corporates Retail 3% 25% 25% 2% 2% 15% 1% 15% 1% 5% 5% % 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 % 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 31.12.212 31.3.213 31.12.212 31.3.213 Changes in corporates rating classes 1 and 8 are attributable to repo-transactions 51

Danish FSA Reports in 211, 212 and 213 New stringent guidelines for impairments 52

Danish FSA reports 211, 212 and 213 SME customers and IRB setup Decision making material satisfactory No ground for changing impairment charges IRB models satisfactory IT inspection Principles and policies meet required demands Market Risk and Compliance Management of market risk satisfactory Minor change in composition of the compliance report Custodian bank for Jyske Invest The bank should improve some of the control measures in relation to the management of the assets of Jyske Invest fully implemented Agricultural clients The bank s credit control in respect of agricultural clients is satisfactory No ground for changing impairment charges Management and control of credits The supervisory board s discussions and assessments of the bank s risks on the basis of the risk report are not sufficiently evidenced in the minutes. Apart from this, the inspection did not give rise to any important reactions on the part of the FSA. 53

New stringent guidelines for impairments Focus real estate portfolios and agriculture More stringent impairment principles (net exposures, asset values) Customers interest rate swaps at fair value One off effect Q2 212: Impairments DKK 543m Value adjustments DKK 357m Higher volatility in value adjustments and impairments when interest rates changes 54

Fact Book 55

Core earnings Profit for the period DKKm Q1 213 Q1 212 Index 13/12 Q1 213 Q4 212 Q3 212 Q2 212 Q1 212 212 Net interest income 1,19 1,148 97 1,19 1,67 1,121 1,135 1,148 4,471 Dividends, etc. 13 3 433 13 17 3 2 Net fee and commission income 435 45 17 435 54 392 351 45 1,652 Net interest and fee income 1,557 1,556 1 1,557 1,571 1,513 1,53 1,556 6,143 Value adjustments 92 151 61 92 97 138-32 151 66 Other operating income 191 87 22 191 113 82 88 87 37 Income from operating lease (net) 16 14 114 16 16 14 14 14 58 Gross earnings 1,856 1,88 13 1,856 1,797 1,747 1,285 1,88 6,637 Operating expenses, depreciation and amortisation 1,147 1,62 18 1,147 1,27 1,51 1,76 1,62 4,459 Profit on investments in associates and group enterprises 1-1 14 1-3 12 Core earnings before loan impairment charges and provisions for guarantees 71 746 95 71 541 697 26 746 2,19 Loan impairment charges and provisions for guarantees* 242 398 61 242 283 235 926 398 1,842 Core earnings 468 348 134 468 258 462-72 348 348 Earnings from investment portfolios 149 192 78 149 28 189 23 192 612 Profit before contribution to the Guarantee Fund, etc. 617 54 114 617 466 651-697 54 96 The Guarantee Fund, etc. -56-38 147-56 -26-31 -14-38 -19 Pre-tax profit 561 52 112 561 44 62-711 52 851 56

Profit/loss First quarter of 213 First quarter of 212 Core earning s Earning s on invest ment portfoli os The Guaran tee Fund, etc. Reclassi fication Core earning s Earning s on invest ment portfoli os The Guaran tee Fund, etc. Reclassi fication DKKm Total Total Net interest income 1,19 88 1,197 1,148 18 1,256 Dividends, etc. 13 1 14 3 1 4 Net fee and commission income 435 435 45 45 Net interest and fee income 1,557 89 1,646 1,556 19 1,665 Value adjustments 92 62 154 151 85 236 Other operating income 191 191 87 87 Income from operating lease 16 75 91 14 55 69 Gross earnings 1,856 151 75 2,82 1,88 194 55 2,57 Operating expenses, depreciation and amortisation 1,147 2 56 75 1,28 1,62 2 38 55 1,157 Profit on investments in associates and group enterprises 1 1 Core earnings before loan impairment charges and provisions for guarantees 71 149-56 83 746 192-38 9 Loan impairment charges and provisions for guarantees* 242 242 398 398 Pre-tax profit for the period 468 149-56 561 348 192-38 52 57

Questions 58