.. ~ CONTRA COST A WATER DISTRICT -- AGENDA DOCKET FORM Agenda Item N. 7 Meeting Date: September 19, 2018 Reslutin: N SUBJECT: 2019 RATE REVIEW ASSUMPTIONS SUMMARY: The District s Rate Setting Plicy (Attachment 1) prvides fr an annual review f water rates, fees, and charges t ensure that sufficient funding is available t meet the District s perating, capital, and debt service requirements. The current rate review is based n prjectins in the 2019-2028 Capital Imprvement Prgram and Ten-Year Financial Plan (CIP), as adpted by the Bard f Directrs (Bard) in February 2018, and the FY19-FY20 Budget, as adpted in June 2018. The assumptins that frm the basis fr the annual rate review are annually presented t the Finance Cmmittee and t the Bard as part f a three-step review f rates and charges. The review starts with cncurrence by the Finance Cmmittee and subsequently the Bard n the assumptins t be used in the rate mdel. This is fllwed by a prjectin f revenue requirements fr the fllwing year. Based n Bard apprval f the revenue requirements, rates fr untreated and treated water are calculated and presented t the Bard fr cnsideratin f adptin fllwing a public hearing. The prpsed 2019 rate review assumptins were reviewed with the Finance Cmmittee n August 29, 2018 and are prvided as Attachment 2. The Draft Finance Cmmittee reprt is included as Attachment 3. This step in the prcess is ccurring earlier than in prir years s that the assumptins can be reflected in the Draft Administrative Recrd fr the alternative rate structure, which is scheduled fr Bard review in Octber. The 2019 rate review assumptins are generally cnsistent with the Bard-adpted FY19-FY20 Budget and the CIP, with ne adjustment prpsed t reflect higher reserve balances than prjected. The District s planned use f reserves was less than expected, which leaves $15.3 millin mre in the reserve balance t start the year than prjected in the CIP. FISCAL IMPACT: Nt Applicable. (Cntinued n page 2) RECOMMENDED ACTION: Review and cncur with the 2019 rate review assumptins and with incrpratin f assumptins int the District s revenue requirement analysis. 0~~~ EB/ v~~ Desiree Castell Directr f Finance DC:dmg Rnald D. Jacbsma Assistant General Manager Jerry Brwn General Manager Attachments: 1) Rate Setting Plicy; 2) 2019 Rate Analysis Assumptins; 3) Draft August 29, 2018 Finance Cmmittee Reprt (Excerpt); 4) Prpsed 2019 Water Rate Review Schedule
2019 Rate Assumptins September 19, 2018 Page 2 SUMMARY (Cntinued frm Page 1): AGENDA DOCKET FORM The $15.3 millin higher reserves include $6.9 millin in capital rebudgets that are rate funded frm FY18 t FY19 t align with prject schedules. Capital rebudgets represent a shift in cash flws and d nt create new funding. The remainder reflects $8.4 millin in FY18 psitive financial results. The Bard typically cnsiders the allcatin f financial plan benefits in cnjunctin with its review f annual financial results. In rder t prvide flexibility t meet the upcming peak debt service payment, the Bard will cnsider reallcatin f the financial plan benefits in the cntext f its annual review f the District s Reserve Plicy. The plicy is scheduled fr review by the Finance Cmmittee n Nvember 1, 2018 and the Bard n Nvember 14, 2018. Althugh the District s reserve psitin remains strng, the transitin t declining debt payments creates new challenges and pprtunities that need careful management. Fr example, the rate f spend dwn f the rate stabilizatin fund will need nging evaluatin. Next Steps Pending Bard cncurrence, the assumptins reflected in this reprt will be incrprated int the District s revenue requirements and rate structure analysis. The rate review evaluates revenue increases frm water sales and facility reserve charges needed t supprt the perating expenditures, capital investments, and debt service payments identified in the FY19-FY20 Budget and the CIP. The prjected revenue requirements will be prvided t the Bard fr review n December 5, 2018. Prpsitin 218 Ntices In accrdance with Prpsitin 218, ntices will be mailed t all District untreated and treated water custmers in mid-nvember, at least 45 days in advance f the public hearing. The ntices will prvide infrmatin regarding all prpsed rate adjustments and the reasns fr the adjustments. The prpsed rates n the ntices wuld be based n a revenue increase f up t 6.0% fr treated water and untreated water, cnsistent with the FY19-FY20 Budget and the CIP. Separately explained, but cntained in the same ntices, will be the changes resulting frm the rate structure analysis (assuming the Bard supprts the draft administrative recrd, scheduled fr review n Octber 17, 2018). The ntices will prvide instructins t custmers n where t receive additinal infrmatin and tls (including an nline rate estimatr fr treated water custmers). The Prpsitin 218 ntices will als infrm custmers f the public hearing t be held n January 2, 2019, after which the Bard will cnsider adptin f the prpsed rate adjustments.
Attachment 1 RATE SETTING POLICY Revenues, expenditures and reserve funds will be reviewed annually t ensure that sufficient funding is available t meet the District s perating, capital and debt service csts. Rate adjustments will be planned in advance with a ten-year frecast perid t prvide fr minimal rderly adjustments in rder t avid large spradic rate increases. The District's rate setting effrts will attempt t ensure that rate adjustments are limited t a level which is at r belw the current rate f inflatin with the gal f cnsistent smaller increases versus infrequent larger increases (e.g. duble digit). Rates and charges will be develped in an equitable manner that reflects the cst f service and prvides fr the lng-term efficient peratin f the District. The water rate structure will be develped in a manner which maintains r enhances the District's credit rating in the mst cst-effective manner. Reserves will be maintained at a level sufficient t fund at least six mnths prjected perating csts. Rates will be set at a level sufficient t maintain a debt service cverage rati f at least 1.25 t 1. The annual rate review will take place after the Bard f Directrs adpts its majr expenditure prgrams (Capital Imprvement Prgram, Budget).
Attachment 2 2019 Rate Analysis Assumptins Cnsumptin The 2019 rate review will use the cnsumptin estimates based n the FY19-FY20 Budget and the lng-term CIP prjectins. The estimates reflect gradual increases in cnsumptin, with increases f 2% in bth 2019 and 2020. Actual cnsumptin in FY18 was 84.4 thusand acre-feet, a 6% increase ver the prir year. The ten-year prjected cnsumptin level in the CIP reflects bth recent cnsumptin trends and the prjected impact f the state s lng-term water use efficiency regulatins. Table 1 Assumed Annual Cnsumptin (in thusand acre-feet) 2019 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25* FY26 FY27 FY28 Rate Review 85.8 87.4 90.3 91.9 93.2 94.3 95.1 96.0 96.9 97.8 *FY25 cnsumptin reflects the initiatin f the State s Lng-Term Water Use Efficiency Regulatins and the District s estimated target. Facility Reserve Charges The Facility Reserve Charge (FRC) is a ne-time charge that ensures new custmers pay their fair share f the csts assciated with the facilities required t prvide water service. There are tw aspects f the FRCs that need t be evaluated as part f the annual rate review. The first relates t annual cnnectins. Table 2 shws actual cnnectins made during the prir year and the prjected cnnectins ver the next ten years, based n the FY19-FY20 Budget and the CIP. The average annual prjectins will be re-evaluated during the next CIP update in February 2019. The secnd part f the evaluatin invlves inflatin adjustments fr the applicable cmpnents f the FRCs, which will be based n the Engineering News Recrd (ENR) cnstructin cst index fr the perid f Nvember 2017 thrugh Octber 2018. Table 2 Facility Reserve Cnnectins Actual Prjectins 2019 Rate Review FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY27- FY28 Untreated Water 479 600 650 890 940 990 1,030 1,060 1,080 Treated Water 173 120 130 150 170 190 210 220 220 Interest Incme Interest incme is earned n District reserves and maintained in apprpriate funds as designated by Bard plicy. The interest earning rates n investments are prjected t increase mdestly frm FY18 and are cnsistent with the FY19-FY20 Budget and CIP, and will be re-evaluated during the next CIP update. Table 3 shws the actual interest earnings rate frm the prir year and the prjected rates fr the next ten years.
2019 Rate Assumptins September 19, 2018 Page 2 Inflatin Table 3 Interest Earnings Actual Prjectins FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23-FY28 1.50% 1.50% 1.80% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% The FY19-FY20 Budget and CIP incrprated inflatinary increases. The Cnsumer Price Indices (CPI) fr urban wage earners and clerical wrkers increased 4.0% fr the twelve mnths ending June 30, 2018. Inflatin is assumed at 3.5% fr perating expenses and 4.0% fr capital expenses in each f the remaining years f the ten-year planning perid. Central Valley Prject water rates are assumed t increase 7% per year based n histrical rate adjustments. Operating Expenses Operating expenses, as shwn in Table 4, are based n the adpted FY19-FY20 Budget and the CIP. These expenses include peratins, maintenance, and administrative csts. Operating cst impacts resulting frm capital prjects are incrprated int the perating cst prjectins in the year the related facility is prjected t cme n line. Table 4 Assumed Operating & Maintenance Expense (in millins f dllars) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 2019 Rate Review $83.8 $86.9 $98.5 $104.1 $109.9 $115.7 $121.8 $129.1 $134.5 $141.4 Debt Service Debt service expenditures are based n prjectins in the FY19-FY20 Budget and the CIP. Capital Prjects Capital expenditures reflect the FY19-FY20 budget and will incrprate the FY18 capital prject rebudgets. Prjectins fr FY21 thrugh FY28 are based n the CIP. Reserves Reserves are utilized, as necessary, thrughut the ten-year rate prjectin perid t enable mdest revenue increases fr bth untreated and treated water custmers. The CIP anticipates that reserve balances used t smth rates will be drawn dwn t the Bard-established minimum level f six mnths f prjected perating expenses by the end f the ten-year rate review perid. Limiting the reserve spend dwn at this time is imprtant t imprve near-term cash flws t meet the $37.5 millin in debt service payments due n Octber 1, 2018. It als avids an unscheduled drawdwn f the Rate Stabilizatin Fund. Cash flw cncerns are typically eliminated by the end f Octber with the receipt f water sales revenue frm peak summer usage.
2019 Rate Assumptins September 19, 2018 Page 3 Debt Service Cverage The District s bnd cvenants, as well as Bard plicy, require the District t maintain a revenuet-debt service cverage rati f 1.25 n parity debt, including water revenue bnds and water revenue ntes, and rati f 1.15 n extendable municipal cmmercial paper. The 2019 rates will be set at a level sufficient t maintain the required debt service cverage ratis fr all years. Other Fees and Charges In additin t water rates, all f the District s fees and charges will be reviewed fr alignment with the cst f prviding the services. The prpsed changes will be presented t the Bard fr cnsideratin f adptin n January 2, 2019.
Attachment 3 REPORT OF THE FINANCE COMMITTEE MEETING Draft (Excerpt) August 29, 2018 Attendees: Directrs: Staff: Public: Cnnstance Hldaway, Vice President and Chair Jerry Brwn, Rn Jacbsma, Steve Welch, Desiree Castell, Jeff Quimby, Fran Garland, Lizz Ck, Celia Cheung, Michele Bautista, and Dnna Grimes Nne 2019 Rate Review Assumptins Staff presented the recmmended assumptins t be reflected in the 2019 rate analysis. The assumptins are largely based n the FY19-FY20 Budget and the 2019-2028 Capital Imprvement Prgram and Ten-Year Financial Plan (CIP). One adjustment is prpsed t reflect higher than prjected reserve balances due t lwer reserve use during FY18. The prpsed assumptins will be presented t the Bard n September 19, 2018 and, with the Bard s cncurrence, will be used t establish the revenue requirements fr 2019. In accrdance with the rate setting plicy, rates will be set at a level sufficient t maintain required debt cverage ratis. In respnse t Vice President Hldaway, Ms. Castell stated that current prjectins anticipate the need fr a 6.0% revenue requirement fr 2019, cnsistent with the CIP. The schedule fr the 2019 rate review prcess was reviewed with the Cmmittee. The rate assumptins will be brught t the Bard fr review in September. This is earlier than in prir years s that the assumptins can be reflected in the Draft Administrative Recrd fr the alternative rate structure, scheduled fr Bard review in Octber. Updated revenue requirements will then be presented fr Bard cncurrence n December 5, 2018. Until the 2019 rates are cnsidered by the Bard in January 2019, the Bard will retain the ability t mdify the revenue requirements up t the percentage reflected n the Prpsitin 218 ntices. The schedule anticipates mailing f these ntices n r befre Nvember 16, 2018. DC:dmg
Attachment 4 PROPOSED CONTRA COSTA WATER DISTRICT 2019 WATER RATE REVIEW SCHEDULE 08/29/2018 Finance Cmmittee Review Rate Assumptins 09/19/2018 Bard f Directrs Review Rate Assumptins 10/17/2018* Bard f Directrs Review Draft Administrative Recrd 11/16/2018* Prpsitin 218 Ntices Mailed 12/05/2018 Bard f Directrs Review Revenue Requirements 01/02/2019 Bard f Directrs a) Public Hearing t Present Prpsed Water Rates, Fees, and Charges Adjustments b) Cnsider Adptin f Final Administrative Recrd c) Cnsider Adptin f Reslutin Apprving Prpsed Water Rates, Fees, and Charges Adjustments 02/01/2019 Effective Date fr Water Rates, Fees, and Charges Adjustments 04/01/2019 Effective Date fr Facility Reserve Charge Adjustments * Date has been revised since Finance Cmmittee review t reflect current schedule.
2019 RATE REVIEW ASSUMPTIONS Financial Planning Cycle 10 Year CIP & Financial Plan February (annually) Rate Review (10 Year Prjectins) Dec/Jan (annually) Tw Year Operating & Capital Budget June (bi-annually) SEPTEMBER 19, 2018 BOARD OF DIRECTORS MEETING PAGE 1
2019 RATE REVIEW ASSUMPTIONS Key Messages Assumptins fr 2019 rate review are based n FY19-FY20 Budget 2019-2028 Capital Imprvement Prgram & Financial Plan Allcatin f higher beginning reserves t be cnsidered with Nvember s Reserve Plicy update Assumptins reviewed at August 29 Finance Cmmittee meeting, earlier than in prir years t be reflected in the Rate Structure s Administrative Recrd SEPTEMBER 19, 2018 BOARD OF DIRECTORS MEETING PAGE 2
2019 RATE REVIEW ASSUMPTIONS Recmmended Key Assumptins Based n FY19-FY20 Budget and CIP thereafter: Water Sales Prjectins Facility Reserve Charge Prjectins Interest Incme SEPTEMBER 19, 2018 BOARD OF DIRECTORS MEETING PAGE 3
2019 RATE REVIEW ASSUMPTIONS Water Sales Prjectins 140,000 120,000 100,000 Acre-Feet 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Histrical 2019 CIP FY18 Actual FY19 Budget FY20 Budget 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 SEPTEMBER 19, 2018 BOARD OF DIRECTORS MEETING PAGE 4
2019 RATE REVIEW ASSUMPTIONS Untreated Water New Cnnectins 2,500 Histrical 2,000 1,500 2019 CIP FY18 Actual FY19 Budget FY20 Budget 1,000 500 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 SEPTEMBER 19, 2018 BOARD OF DIRECTORS MEETING PAGE 5
2019 RATE REVIEW ASSUMPTIONS Treated Water New Cnnectins 500 450 400 350 300 Histrical 2019 CIP FY18 Actual FY19 Budget FY20 Budget 250 200 150 100 50 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 SEPTEMBER 19, 2018 BOARD OF DIRECTORS MEETING PAGE 6
2019 RATE REVIEW ASSUMPTIONS Other Key Assumptins Based n FY19-FY20 Budget; CIP thereafter Expenditure Prjectins Capital prjects include $8.4M in FY18 rebudgets Inflatin f 3.5% fr perating, 4.0% fr capital Reserve use t smth rate increases Balances, allcatins t be reviewed in Nvember Maintain minimum debt service cverage SEPTEMBER 19, 2018 BOARD OF DIRECTORS MEETING PAGE 7
2019 RATE REVIEW ASSUMPTIONS Schedule Bard f Directrs - Assumptins Sep. 19, 2018 Bard f Directrs Draft Admin Recrd fr Rates Oct. 17, 2018 Prpsitin 218 Ntices Mailed Nv. 12, 2018 Bard f Directrs - Revenue Requirements Dec. 5, 2018 Bard f Directrs Jan. 2, 2019 Public Hearing n Prpsed Changes Cnsider Adptin f Final Administrative Recrd Cnsider Adptin f Rates, Fees, Charges Water Rate Changes Effective Feb. 1, 2019 FRC Adjustments Effective Apr. 1, 2019 SEPTEMBER 19, 2018 BOARD OF DIRECTORS MEETING PAGE 8