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I I I I 141 Correctional Service Service correctionnel Canada Canada r--- OFFENDER POPULATION FORECAST 1989-90 TO 1998-99.I
OFFENDER POPULATION FORECAST '. 1989-90 TO 1998-99
" 1 Corporate eo., AecUco-A Correcii ms SeviAGL, Communications and Development Sectot/ December 19 3 OFFENDER POPULATION FORECAST 1989-90 TO 1998-99 5701. 1C,TOR ','ANACA m: 8 1990 wrntte LICITEUR JI 110 L. CA: ',e38 Correctional Service of Canada
TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 3 II BACKGROUND 3 III. FORECASTING PROCESS 4 A. MEDIUM TERM FORECAST (1989/90 to 1993/94). 4 B. LONG TERM FORECAST (1989/90 to 1998/99).. 5 C. 1989/90 OFFENDER POPULATION FORECAST.. 5 1. CHANGES IN THE LABOUR FORCE. 6 2. PUBLIC OPINION 7 3. DEMOGRAPHICS 7 4. TRENDS IN THE CRIME RATE 7 5. SUMMARY 7 IV, FORECASTS 8 A. TOTAL OFFENDER POPULATION. 8 B. MALE ON-REGISTER POPULATION 9 C., FEMALE ON-REGISTER POPULATION 12 D. MALE NATIVE ON-REGISTER INMATE POPULATION. 13 E. SUPERVISION POPULATION FORECAST 13 V. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS. A. INTRODUCTION.... B. SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS 1. DEMOGRAPHICS 15 15 15 15
2 2. TRENDS IN THE CRIME RATE 21 C. CRIMINAL JUSTICE POLICY 23 1. SENTENCING COMMISSION 23 2. DAUBNEY REPORT 24 3. SOLICITOR GENERAL INITIATIVES. 25 D. CSC INITIATIVES 25 1. CSC MISSION DOCUMENT 25 2. REVIEW OF OFFENDER MANAGEMENT. 26 3. TASK FORCE ON COMMUNITY AND INSTITUTIONAL PROGRAMS 26 4. MENTAL HEALTH 27 5. NEW DIRECTIONS IN OFFENDER ASSESSMENT 27 6. SUMMARY 28 ANNEX A TOTAL OFFENDER POPULATION A1-2 ANNEX B MALE ON-REGISTER POPULATION B1-13 ANNEX C FEMALE ON-REGISTER POPULATION C1-7 ANNEX D. MALE NATIVE ON-REGISTER INMATE POPULATION D1-7 ANNEX E SUPERVISION POPULATION FORECAST E1-5 ANNEX F MULTI-YEAR OPERATION PLAN FORECAST.. F1-6
3. I. INTRODUCTION This document provides forecasts of offender populations under the jurisdiction of the Correctional Service of Canada. Forecasts of male and female inmates, who are on register at CSC and serving time in either a federal or provincial institution, are provided for the period from 1989/90 to 1998/99. The supervision population (ie., those on full parole, mandatory supervision or day parole) is forecasted for a five year period, up to 1993/94. Section II of this report provides background information concerning the use of the forecast. Section III briefly details the methodologies used to develop the long and short term forecasts. It also describes factors which are inherent in the forecast through the use of historical data. Section IV of this report describes the forecasts. Tables and charts depicting the actual and forecast populations are contained in Annex A through Annex F. Forecasts are provided for the following offender populations: - total offender population (male, female and supervision populations) by region fimm 1989/90 to 1993/94); - male on-register population by region and by security level from 1989/90 to 1998/99; - female on-register population by region from 1989/90 to 1998/99; - the male native on-register population by region from 1989/90 to 1998/99; - the full parole, mandatory supervision, and day parole populations from 1989/90 to 1993/94; and, - the Multi-Year Operational Plan (MYOP) forecast from 1989/90 to 1993/94. Section V discusses some factors that may affect the size and nature of future populations. These factors have not been accounted for in this forecast due to the tentative nature of their implementation. II. BACKGROUND The offender population forecast plays a key role in resource allocation, program planning and long range accommodation planning; all of which are dependent on the number and type of offenders under CSC's jurisdiction. Resources are allocated, in
4 part, on a cost-per-offender basis using a three year (MYOP) forecast. Individual forecasts are also produced for particular segments of the population, such as native offenders, for use in planning special programs to meet these offenders' needs. In addition, these forecasts are used in developing the Long Range Accommodation Plan as the basis for the accommodation required; for each security level, for specialized populations (such as psychiatric or protective custody) and for community facilities. CSC is currently developing a new Offender Population Forecasting System (OPFS). This system will interface directly with the Offender Information System to extract historical data on population movements (admissions and releases) and various offender characteristics, such as age, ethnicity, crime type, etc. It will use different forecasting methodologies for the medium and long range. In addition, there will be a trend impact analysis feature to allow the input of adjustments which are not reflected in history, but which are expected to occur in the future. This will certainly broaden our capacity to forecast by components of the offender population. The new OPFS has been delayed by the need for a corporate data base management system (DBMS) and, therefore, was not available to produce the 1988/89 offender forecast. However, the same principles and methods were used with reduced historical input. III. FORECASTING PROCESS The 1989/90 offender population forecast was developed using essentially the same method that was used for the 1988/89 forecast. The accounting model used for the medium term forecast is based on the current populations. Future populations are derived through the application of forecasted admissions and releases. This is recognized as most accurate to about five years. In the longer term (over five years) a regression of historical offender populations has a greater potential for accuracy. However, this leaves the possibility of a discontinuity at the cross-over point (five years). In order to provide a smooth transition, the five year forecast is, generally, an average of the medium term four and the long term six year forecasts. A. MEDIUM TERM FORECAST (1989/90 to 1993/94) In developing the medium term forecast an accounting model was used in the following manner: - admissions were forecasted on a regional basis for each quarter of the year, for the next five years; - releases were forecasted on a regional basis for each quarter of the year, for the next five years;
5 - the inmate population was then determined by calculating the net population change during the period (i.e. admissions minus releases) and adding this figure to the opening population for the quarter. In forecasting admissions, age and seasonal change were taken into account. For releases, seasonality was taken into account and the release rate was calculated as a function of the inmate population lagged by four quarters. B. _LONG TERM FORECAST (1989/90 to 1998/99 ) The long term forecast reflects the long term historical inmate population as a function of demographics and then projects this trend to determine inmate populations. The following procedure was used: - the percentage of the Canadian population incarcerated, by age group, by region, was calculated for the last 12 years and these percentages were projected for the forecast period; the incarceration rate was applied to the Statistics Canada population forecasts. This resulted in a forecast of inmates by region, by age group and by year; and, - the age groups were combined to form the regional totals and the regional totals were combined to determine the national inmate population. These methods were used to predict both the male and female inmate populations. C. 1989/90 OFFENDER POPULATION FORECAST The methods used in this forecast are statistically valid and well recognized among social scientists. However, it is important to recognize the assumptions upon which the forecast was based and some of the limitations of this methodology. The forecasts are not expected to be "correct" in the sense of predicting with one hundred percent accuracy what the inmate population will be in any given year. The best that can be achieved is that if the future follows the past then the forecast is likely to be close to the actual number of inmates at any given time. There are a multitude of socio-economic factors that will have an impact on the size of the inmate population. There is little doubt that this population is related to the unemployment rate, economic cycles, public opinion, the crime rate, and judicial sentencing patterns. What is in dispute is the direction and magnitude of the effect of these variables.
Setting aside these historic criminological debates for the moment, a few tentative comments will be made regarding the effects that are inherent in the historical data. 1. CHANGES IN THE LABOUR FORCE 6 Throughout the 1980s Canada experienced high rates of unemployment. Since the 1950s unemployment consistently increased. The mean official unemployment rate for the 1950 5 was 4.19%, for the 1960s it was 5.02%, for the 1970s it was 6.57%, but for the first nine years of the 1980s it was 10.7%. The bulk of the increase in the 1980s occurred early in the decade during the recession years. Between 1982 and 1985 the official unemployment rate was 11.0%, 11.8%, 11.2% and 10.5% respectively. Since 1985, unemployment has dropped slightly but has not yet returned to pre-recession levels. Aside from being higher than in recent decades, unemployment in the 1980s is qualitatively different than unemployment in the recent past. Increasingly, long-term unemploymentl is becoming the norm for many Canadians. The number of Canadians unemployed for longer than six months more than tripled between 1980 and. 1983 - increasing from 141,000 to 429,000. By 1985 this number dropped, albeit marginally, to 359,000 or 27.6% of the total amount of unemployed persons. It is likely that these unemployment trends will continue into the near future. Even though unemployment has declined in recent years, the high rates which have occurred recently will likely continue and long-term unemployment could increase. Assuming that unemployment and crime are associated, should the current trends in the rate of unemployment continue high rates and long periods of unemployment may have an effect on the crime rate and may lead to an increase in the institutional population. Because high rates of unemployment have been captured in past population increases, an unemployment rate of approximately 9 to 12% is inherent in the forecast. 1 Statistics Canada defines long-term unemployment as periods of unemployment lasting six months or longer. For further information on long-term unemployment see: Parliament, Jo-Anne. (1987), "Increases in Long-term Unemployment" in Canadian Social Trends, Spring, 16-19.
2. PUBLIC OPINION 7 "Public opinion" is a strong influence in the formation of criminal justice policy. Several high profile incidents (e.g. Ruygrok, Conter) have caused much public dissatisfaction with the perceived operation of the criminal justice system. For CSC, the repercussions of public dissatisfaction are both direct (inquest recommendations, commission reports,) and indirect (hardening of attitudes towards violent offenders). These events and other similar, events and attitudes have occurred in the past and therefore have helped to mold our current criminal justice system. Should similar events occur in the future it can be expected that any effect on the inmate population will be part of the forecast. The question then becomes, are these effects likely to increase or to decrease and to what degree over the next decade. At the present time, there is no reason to believe that there will be a significant change in this regard over the next decade. 3. DEMOGRAPHICS One of the few axioms in criminology is that crime and age are negatively correlated: young people are more likely to commit a crime than are older people. As a criminal ages the probability of recidivating decreases. It might be expected, then, that changes in the age structure of the Canadian population will lead to changes in the crime rate and subsequently changes in the offender population. The population forecast has taken into account the relationship between previous changes in admission rates and inmate population levels over the past decade to the changing demographic profile of the country. This allows us to proiect demographic changes in the offender population as a result of the expected change in the Canadian population over the period of the forecast. An additional discussion on the demographic effect is presented in Section V. 4. TRENDS IN THE CRIME RATE Property crime appears to be leveling off while violent crime has been increasing at a slow but steady pace. This phenomenon has been captured in the historical data and if these trends continue we have every reason to believe that there will be no significant effect on the forecast values. The changing crime rate is discussed in Section V. 5. SUMbIARY The purpose in discussing these factors is to point out that it is change from past experience that will invalidate the forecast. As long as the trends of the past, that are
8 inherent in the forecast data, continue, we can expect to have faith in the reliability of our projections. It is only when there is a significant deviation from the past trends that the forecast should be reviewed outside the normal cycle. IV. FORECASTS A. TOTAL OFFENDER POPULATION - ANNEX A Table IV(i) displays the total offender population, actual and forecasted, from 1988/89 to 1994/95. The total offender population includes all individuals under CSC's jurisdiction: onregister inmates, ie., federal inmates in federal institutions and federal inmates in provincial institutions, offenders on full parole or on mandatory supervision. Inmates on day parolees are included in the on-register population. The total offender population was calculated by combining the medium term forecasts for males and females, and the supervision forecast. TABLE IV(i) TOTAL OFFENDER POPULATION 2 ACTUAL AND FORECAST - 1988/89 TO 1994/95 ACTUAL. FORECASTED 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 MALES 12897 13380 13760 14100 14430 14660 FEMALES 290 289 296 304 311 320 ON-REGISTER POPULATION 13187 13669 14056 14404 14741 14980 MANDATORY SUPERVISION. 2373 2477 2548 2619 2691 2764 FULL PAROLE 4325 4258 4339 4419 4501 4581 CONDITIONAL RELEASE 6698 6735 6887 7038 7192 7345 TOTAL POPULATION 19885 20404 20943 21442 21933 22325 1 1 DAY PAROLE 1609 1915 1983. 2069 2155 2241 2 Offenders on day parole are included in the on-register population.
9 The total offender population is expected to increase over the next five years, front 19,885 in 1988/89 to 22,325 in 1994/95. This increase represents a growth rate of 12.3% or 2.3% per year. The growth rate predicted in this year's forecast is almost identical to that predicted last year. The total offender populations for both forecasts, and the yearly growth rates, are presented in Tables IV(ii) and IV(iii). Table IV(ii) Total Offender Population Yearly Growth Rates, 1987/88 Forecast Year of Actual Forecast 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1987/88 19599 19898 20529 21045 21530 22054 1 % growth/year +1.5 +3.2 +2.5 +2.3 +2.4 % growth 1987/88 to 1992/93 +12.5 Table IV(iii) Total Offender Population Yearly Growth Rates, 1988/89 Forecast Year of Actual Forecast 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1988/89 19885 20404 20943 21442 21933 22325 % growth/year +2.6 +2.6 +2.4 +2.3 +1.8 % growth'1988/89 to 1993/94 +12.3 The total offender population forecast by region can be found in Annex A. B. MALE ON-REGISTER POPULATION - Annex B The male on-register population has followed a relatively stable trend, with an annual growth rate of approximately 2.5 percent. Since the early 1930's, there have been only three significant decreases in population which lasted over a year. These resulted front legislative changes in the 30's, World War II in the 40's and a change in the parole process in the 60's. In the early
1 0 1980's, the rate of admissions and, correspondingly, the onregister population rose dramatically. The trend in admissions finally stabilized in the middle 80's. However, the release of the bulk of the earlier admissions resulted in an increase in the number of releases between 1985/86 and 1987/88 and with a corresponding, sharp, but short-lived, decrease in the onregister population in the latter part of 1987/88. This downward trend has since reversed. The male on-register population is expected to rise from 12,897 as of March 31, 1989 to 15,950 as of March 31, 1999. This increase represents a rise of 23.67%. Forecast year-to-year increases range from 3.7% to 1.5%. Table IV(iv) shows the year-to-year percentage changes for the historical and forecasted male on-register population: Table IV(iv) MALE ON-REGISTER INMATE POPULATION RATE OF GROWTH (1976/77 to 1998/99) Fiscal Year Actual No. of Inmates % Growth per Yr. 1976/77 9,203. 1977/78 9,379 1.9 1978/79 9,202-1.9 1979/80 9,280 0.8 1980/81 9,374 1.0 1981/82 10,050 7.2 1982/83 10,911 9.4 1983/84 11,531 5.0 1984/85 12,058 4.5 1985/86 12,505-3.7 1986/87 12,340-1.3 1987/88, 12,399 0.5 1988/89 12,897 4.0 Forecast 1989/90 13,380 3.7 1990/91 13,760 2.8 1991/92 14,100 2.5 1992/93 14,430 2.3 1993/94 14,660 1.6 1994/95-14,900 1.6 1995/96 15,170 1.8 1996/97 15,430 1.7 1997/98 15,700 1.7 1998/99 15,950 1.6
OM MI MIR IOW OM MD OM MIR MI BIM UM NM OM MI 11 Table IV(v) shows previous forecasts campared to the actual male on-register population. ' MAIES ON' REGISTER PREVIOUS FORECASTS WILMS AS COMPAREDU)ACINDUANIMBER OF OFFENDERS Forecast Year 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 ACTUAL Y a o a d 1980/81 9470 9374 1981/82 9420 9510 10050 1982/83 9625 9790 10675 10991 1983/84 9850 10015 11375 11385 11539 1984/85 10020 10140 11950 11860 12295 12058 1985/86 10285 10260 12265 12310 12595 12595 12505 1986/87 10130 10230 12485 12670 12950 12773 12340 1987/88 10025 10325 12730 13335 13435 12950 13074 12399 1988/89 9945 10285 12840 13785 13840 13192 13537 13144 12897 1989/90 10120 10350 12945 14160 14175' 13435 13998 13613 13380 NOTE: The 1985/86 forecast was carried cver to 1986/87 Regional male on-register offender forecasts by security level are in Annex B.
12 C. FEMALE ON-REGISTER POPULATION - Annex C The female inmate population has increased by approximately 53% between 1977/78 and 1988/89, rising from 190 inmates to 290 inmates. This increase has not been steady. The population remained very stable throughout the late 1970s and the early 1980s. Beginning in 1985, the population began to increase at a more rapid pace. The following chart shows the increase and volatility in the female inmate population between 1977/78 and 1988/89: Chart IV(i) FEMALE ON-REGISTER POPULATION CANADA - Females On-regIster 285H 260-1 235H 210 -I 185 78 79-80 81 82 83 84 85 88 87 88 89 The female inmate population is forecasted to increase 21% or approximately 1.9% per year between 1989/90 and 1998/99. In absolute numbers the change is from 290 to 351.
13 Table IV(vi) provides a comparison of the 1988/89 and the 1989/90 female offender forecasts. Table IV(vi) YEAR 1988/89 1989/90 Forecast Forecast Diff. 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1997/98 284 291 298 305 311 316 323 327 334 289 296 304 311 320 326 331 338 343 351 +5 +5 +6 +6 +9 +10 +8 +11 +10 There is only a marginal difference between the 1987/88 female on-register forecast and the 1988/89 female on-register forecast. The regional'distribution of the female population forecast can be found in Annex C. D. MALE NATIVE ON-REGISTER INMATE POPULATION - ANNEX D The male native on-register population has, in recent years, increased at a faster rate than the non-native population. This trend is expected to continue during the forecast period: the total (native and non-native) male inmate population should increase by 23.67%, whereas the male native inmate population is forecasted to increase by 42.54%. The greatest increase of male native inmates - 460 - will occur in the Prairie region. The regional 'distribution of the male native on-register population forecast can be found in Annex D. E. SUPERVISION POPULATION FORECAST - ANNEX E The total supervision case count - mandatory supervision, full parole and day parole cases - varies considerably from year-toyear; increasing one year and decreasing the next. This is displayed in the following chart.
' Chart IV(ii) TOTAL SUPERVISION POPULATION CASE COUNT YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGE Y E 1000-(J A R 800 - T 0 600 - y 400 - E A 200 D F -200-t E -4001 N 600 E -800 79 80 81 82 83 84 86 YEAR 86 87 88 89 Bearing in mind the volatility of this population, the total supervision case count is forecasted to increase front 8307 as of March 31, 1989 to 9586 as of March 31, 1999 - an increase of 15.4%. Details on the individual supervision population forecasts by region can be found in Annex E. F. MULTI-YEAR OPERATION PLAN FORECAST - ANNEX F The Multi-Year Operation Plan (MYOP) forecast provides a base for resource allocation within CSC, as funds are allocated on a costper-offender basis. Whereas the other forecasts predict offender population at the end of each fiscal year, the MYOP forecast displays the average population for each year. The MYOP forecast is displayed in Annex F.
V. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS A. INTRODUCTION 3 4. Ibid., p.37. 15 This section discusses, in more detail, some of the environmental considerations that are included in the forecast. In addition, there is discussion on some current and on-going considerations within the criminal justice system and CSC in particular which could affect the inmate population in the future. The impact of this latter group of considerations has not been reflected in the current forecast, in some cases due to the fact that there is no clear indication of the final outcome of the initiative or the implementation date, and in other cases due to the lack of understanding of the affect the initiative will have on the population. However, the discussion is presented so that people will be aware that a relationship may exist. Once the initiatives become clearer the effects will be. determined either through modelling or through a delphi-like process and the outcome applied to future forecasts. B. SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS 1. DEMOGRAPHICS The effect of demographic change on inmate population was briefly discussed in Section III. This issue will be now examined in more detail. The Canadian population is getting older 3. According to Statistics Canada the median age of the population has increased from 29.6 in 1981 to 31.6 in 1986, the highest median age ever recorded. The fastest growing population is the "over 65" age group. From 1981 to 1986 the growth rate of the Canadian population as a whole was 4%; during the same period the growth rate of the "over 65" population was 14%, or more than three times the average growth rate. By 1986 the proportion of the population over 65 was 10.7%, up from 9.7% in 1981. Demographers from Statistics Canada conclude that "the high growth rate of the population aged 65 and older is expected to continue well into the future" 4. On the other hand, the younger population is decreasing.. Devereaux, Mary Sue. (1987). "1986 Census Highlights: The.Aging of the Canadian Population".in Canadian Social Trends, Winter.
1 1 16 1 Between 1981 and 1986 the 5-14 year old population dropped by 3.1%. In addition, there was approximately 500,000 fewer between 15-24 years in 1986 as there was in 1981; this decrease represents a drop of about 10%. Table V(i) shows the aging of the Canadian population. 6.0 STATISTICS CANADA DEMOGRAPHIC FORECAST 1988 to 1996 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 h 4 0 0 a d 3 0 2.0 -H to 1 1 1 1 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1996 1996 Age Group x- 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-54 --- 55* These changes in the age structure of the Canadian population may have an effect on the inmate population. For.example, if there continues to be a decline in the 15-24 year old population - the most crime-prone age group - one may expect there will be a decline in the crime rate and, thereforee, a decline in the inmate population. Intuitively this makes sense. If there are less potential offenders, there should be less crime. This scenario is contingent on a very narrow age-crime assumption. Caution should be taken when demographics are granted such a high level of determinacy. Alone, demographics are abstractions of reality, they tell nothing about the social or economic context in which the criminal justice system operates. In many ways the institutional population is not representative of the general population (e.g. income, education). As there are factors other than demographics that influence the structure of the inmate population, the most that demographics can do is define, in gross terms, the parameters (size, profile, etc.) of the
'potential inmate population. 17 Nevertheless, the age distribution of offenders - on admission is a leading indicator of the profile of the offender population and this shows a strong similarity to the change in the Canadian age structure. The following graph shows that over the past decade, the pivotal age group on admission has been between 25 to 29, with the percentage of admissions of younger offenders decreasing and that of older offenders increasing. AGE ON ADMISSION PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION PERCENTAGE 40 40 4 0 20 10 o 74d7U 7ef210 80111 41111 F MAL YEAR 84,147 141/44 leià4 14.24 YEAR' - 9-40.44 YEANO --I-- 22.22 -->(- at» vieree Table V(ii) 5 shows that the federal on-register inmate 5 Source: Population Profile Report, MIS.
18 population has been showing an aging process similar to that of the general population. Between 1982/83 and 1988/89 the inmate population has been getting older - there has been a decline in the number and percentage of young inmates and an increase in the number and percentage of older inmates. Table V(ii) FEDERAL ON-REGISTER INMATE POPULATION AGE PROFILE - 1982/83 TO 1988/8 AGE GROUP 1 Year < 24 % 25-29 % 30-34 % 35-39 % 82/83 3676 32.5 2783 24.6 1940 17.1 1278 11.3 83/84 3706 31.2 2953 24.9 2054 17.3 1378 11.6 84/85 3626 29.6 3068 25.1 2219 18.1 1486 12.1 85/86 3425 27.1 3194 25.2 2364 18.7 1572 12.4 86/87 3216 25.3 3240 25.5 2383 18.8 1575 12.4 87/88 2975 23.4 3327 26.2 2391 18.3 1615 12.7 88/89 2747 21.0 3307 25.3 2545 19.5 1822 13.9 Year 40-49 % 50-59 % 60+ % Total 82/83 1121 9.9 412 3.6 111 1.0 11321 83/84 1205 10.2 444 3.7 135 1.1 11875 84/85 1272 10.4 460 3.8 136 1.1 12267 85/86 1437 11.4 503 4.0 158 1.2 12653 86/87 1640 12.9 487 3.8 162 1.3 12674 * 87/88 1700 14.4 529 4.2 158 1.2 12969 88/89 1832 14.0 627 4.8 185 1.4 13066 ** * 7 missing ** 1 missing The "under 24" inmate population has dropped noticeably over the past' seven years. In 1982/83 this age group comprised 32.5% of the total on-register population, in 1988/89 it accounted for only 21% of the total inmate population. On the other hand, by 1988/89, the number of inmates aged 25-29 increased as a share of the total population by 1% making this modal category at 25.3%. In the same period, the 30-34 age group increased by just over 2% and the 40-49 age group increased by 4.1%. These data indicate that the on-register inmate population is getting older. 6 The year-end totals represent the on-register population as of March 31 of the year. These data were derived from a different source than those used in the forecast therefore the totals are different.
19 The aging of the inmate population does not appear to be the result of the changes associated with the introduction of the Young Offender's Act. Between 1983 and 1989, the number of inmates under 20 dropped from 533 to 168, however, throughout this period the under 20 population accounted for less than one percent of the entire inmate population. Thus, it appears that the new upper age limits of the YOA only marginally decreased the number of young persons in federal institutions. Even without the change in the juvenile justice system, the average age of the federal inmate population would have increased. In recent years, there have been some discussions concerning the effect of increased sentence lengths on the number of inmates. It was thought that longer sentences would (1) increase the number of offenders in federal institutions, and, (2) increase the age of the inmate population. Both of these scenarios depend upon sentence lengths increasing. The following graph shows the sentence lengths for offenders entering the federal correctional system over the past decade. There is no significant change in sentencing patterns over this period. SENTENCE LENGTH ON ADMISSION PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION 40 P ERGÉN TAG E 80 60 20 78 1711 718110 1101111 SI/S1 80 1 14 68144 S4 1 84 84/ 14 84181, 87 184 SI $ O FISCAL YEAR 4 'GI 10.14 via.. I a-. rt -X- II. 4-1. Yr/.814
20 1 Table V(iii) provides sentence length data for the federal on-register population. With the exception of offenders sentenced to under three years and to life, the percentage of offenders included in each sentence range has remained relatively constant over the seven year period. Even though the proportion of inmates in the <3 age group has dropped since 1982/83, in 1988/89 this age group still constituted the bulk of the inmate population (39.4%), and contains over twice as many inmates as the next largest sentence range. Thus, on an aggregate level, sentence lengths have increased only marginally. In all likelihood, the marginal increase has not had a substantial impact on the size of the inmate population. Table V(iii) FEDERAL ON-REGISTER INMATE POPULATION SENTENCE LENGTH PROFILE - 1982/83 TO 1988/89 Year <4 4-<6 6-<10 10-<15 15-<20 20+ Life Indef Total 1 1 1 82/83 42.7 18.0 14.3 7.4 2.6 2.3 12.2 0.4 100 83/84 42.1 18.2 14.4 7.3 2.6 2.3 12.6 0.4 100 84/85 42.2 18.0 14.6 7.4 2.5 2.3 12;8 0.2 100 85/86 42.3 17.9 14.8 7.1 2.4 2.3 13.1 0.2 100 86/87 40.2 18.7 14.7 7.4 2.4 1.7 13.8 0.9 100 87/88 39.0 18.2 15.1 7.9 2.6 1.9 14.3 1.0 100 88/89 39.4 17.8 14.7 7.9 2.7 2.1 14.4 1.0 100 Over the past seven years the age structure of the federal inmate population has become flatter. In 1982/83, for the bulk of the population (124 to 40-49) there was a large difference (22.6%) between the age group with the largest number of inmates (124) and the age group with the smallest amount of inmates (40-49). In 1988/89, the difference between'the largest (25-29) and smallest (40-49) age groups was only 9.3%. In general, the age structure for the bulk of the population in 1988/89 was older and less concentrated in one age category than was the case in 1982/83. There appears to be a rough similarity between the trends in the age structure of the general population and that of the institutional population - both appear to be getting older. Again, caution should be taken when interpreting the changes in the age structure of the inmate population as a function of the age structure of the general population. The latter will have some effect on the former but other factors, such as changes in criminal justice policy, will also exert influence.
21 In conclusion, although the notion that a reduction in the number of young persons will reduce the inmate population is intuitively appealing, it is more likely that for the next decade, the aging of the Canadian population will have very little effect on the size of the inmate population. Even with the decline in the number of youth in the general population, the institutional population will likely grow. The aging of the Canadian population will have a greater impact on the profile of the inmate population; the trend towards an older inmate population will likely continue into the future. 2. TRENDS IN THE CRIME RATE While aging trends may not have a direct or immediate impact on the size of the federal inmate population, trends in the crime rate likely will. Increases in the crime rate may alter the size of the federal inmate population in two ways: (i) by directly inserting more offenders in the criminal justice system, and, (2) by effecting a change in sentencing practices. These two issues will be discussed in this section. According to Statistics Canada 7 the crime rate increased by 65% between 1970 and 1985. In 1970 there were 5212 crimes per 100,0d0 people, in 1985 there were 8581. However, the crime rate did not climb gradually over this period. Between 1973 and 1975 and between 1979 and 1980 the crime rate increased by 7-10%. The average rate of increase for the other years was only 1%. Property crime increased markedly throughout the 1970s and into the early 1980s. Since 1983 the property crime rate has been falling. The property crime rate in 1983, the highest rate ever recorded, was 5955 per 100,000 people, by 1987 it had dropped 3.58% to 5731. As of yet it is not possible to tell whether this drop is a trend or just an anomaly. On the other hand, the violent crime rate has increased consistently throughout the entire 1980s. In 1981 the violent crime rate was 666 per 100,000 people, in 1987 it was 856, an increase of 28.5%. Most of the recorded violent crimes (76%) were the least serious types of assaults. Of the remaining 24% of violent crime, 12% were sexual assaults, 11% were robberies, and less than 1% were homicides. Nevertheless, violent crime continues to make up only a small percentage of all criminal code offences. Trends in the crime rate indicate that both the property 7 Lindsay, Colin. (1986). "Trends in the Crime Rate" in Canadian Social Trends, Autumn, 33-38.
22 crime rate and the violent crime rate are increasing, the latter increasing at a greater pace than the former during the 1980s. Thus, each year more offenders, and more violent offenders, are entering the criminal justice system. Recent data on the federal inmate population appears to reflect the trends in the crime rates: there is a greater percentage of violent offenders in custody today than there was seven years ago. In 1982, 31.0% of the federal on-register inmate population was serving time for a violent and/or sexual offence. In 1988/89, these two offence groupings accounted for 38.3% of the on-register population. Thus, the inmate population seems to be paralleling the trends in the violent and property crime rates: more violent offenders are being convicted and more violent offenders are being given sentences of incarceration. Trends in the crime rate may influence the size of the inmate population in another way. Increases in the crime rate, especially violent crime, may place the criminal justice system under greater public and parliamentary scrutiny which may escalate the demand for tougher sentences. CRIME RATE IN CANADA 1973 TO 1987 6000 VIOLENT CRIME RATE ni PROPERTY CRIME RA a t- 6000 - e r 4000-8 0 0 3000 -.... \ 2000-1000 -I 1 1 1 1 I 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 86 86 87 Year
23 C. CRIMINAL JUSTICE POLICY 1. SENTENCING COMMISSION The Canadian Sentencing Commission was established in 1984 to examine all aspects of the sentencing process in Canada. In February of 1987, the Sentencing Commission tabled its report titled Sentencing: A Canadian Approach. In line with its mandate, the Commission's report was an exhaustive assessment of the present criminal justice system (including the purposes and principles of the criminal law and sentencing, the use of incarceration, and the utility of conditional release) and an integrated reform agenda aimed at ameliorating what the Commission perceived to be serious flaws in the system. A review of the entire list of recommendations put forth by the Commission is beyond the scope of this report, alternatively, the focus of analysis in this section will be on those recommendations that, if implemented, would have the greatest impact on the size of the inmate population. The bulk of the Commission's report involved the following three proposals: the adoption of a "modified just deserts" model of sentencing that is both realistic and emphasizes the principles of justice, the establishment of presumptive sentencing guidelines to provide structure and guidance to the judiciary when determining sentence type and sentence length, the elimination of full parole release and mandatory supervision release in favour of a "good time' provision which may reduce up to one quarter of the custodial portion of the sentence imposed by the judge. Taken together, these reforms amount to a total restructuring of the sentencing process and would require a significant restructuring of the correctional system. The Sentencing Commission did conclude that if full parole was abolished and sentencing patterns were not adjusted accordingly, then the inmate population would rise by approximately 20%, and even this is a very conservative estimate. Moreover, this increase would occur immediately after (within two years) of the implementation of the recommendations.
24 2. DAUBNEY REPORT On 3 November, 1987 the Standing Committee on Justice and Solicitor General was directed to conduct a review of sentencing, conditional release and related aspects of corrections. In August of 1988 the Committee, under the chair of David Daubney, released its report, Taking Responsibility (Daubney Report). Like the Sentencing Commission, the Daubney Report is an expansive document and many of the Committee's recommendations, if implemented, would have an effect on the size of the inmate population and the correctional environment in general, consequently, this analysis will focus on only a fraction of the recommendations. One of the focal points of the Daubney Report centered on the use of incarceration as a punishment for criminal behaviour. The Committee was of the opinion that incarceration is being over-utilized: Expensive prison resources should be reserved for the most serious cases. Insofar as minor offenders are concerned, all non-carceral options should be exhausted before there is recourse to incarceration. Except where to do so would put the community at undue risk, the "correction" of the offender should take place in the community and imprisonment should be used with restraint. Overall, the Committee's appeal was for less punitive sentences and alternatives to incarceration for minor property offenders, and longer, more punitive sentences for violent offenders. If implemented the Committee's recommendations could have a substantial effect on the size of the inmate population or very little depending upon the balance between the "get tough" and less punitive options. The second major concern of the Committee was the process and function of the conditional release system. The Committee supported the principle of early release and felt that, in general, the National Parole Board was performing its functions effectively. Thus the Committee's recommendations concerning early release were geared towards reforming the existing system, rather than eliminating the system all together (as was the case with the Sentencing Commission).
25 3. SOLICITOR GENERAL INITIATIVES The previous Solicitor General reviewed both the Sentencing Commission and the Daubney Reports and issued a set of proposals June 15, 1988 which recommended the establishment of a period of statutory release at the lesser of one-third or twelve months remaining in an inmate's sentence rather than the current mandatory supervision at one-third remaining. The current Solicitor General has reviewed these proposal with a view to bringing both elements of the Sentencing Commission and the Daubney proposals into effect. That is, to be tougher on violent offenders while providing more appropriate sentences and conditional release options for non-violent offender. Through the balancing of this process it is expected that a proposal will be presented which will be cost neutral. These options are currently being developed and will be taken into consideration in future forecast should they become enacted. 4. THE YOUNG OFFENDERS ACT Recently there have been discussions regarding the. seriousness of some offences being committed by young.offenders and the light sentences that are available under the Young Offenders Act (YOA). This disparity has resulted_ in youths being transferred to the adult system where they could be required to serve their sentence in a federal institution. It is currently being proposed by Justice that the length of the sentence which could be awarded to offenders subject to the Young Offenders Act, and for murders and serous crimes, be increased to five years to govern situations where a transfer is not appropriate. A preliminary estimate, however, suggests that these numbers would be very small and whatever the decision there would be a negligible impact on the offender population. D. CSC INITIATIVES 1. CSC MISSION DOCUMENT The Mission Document of the Correctional Services of Canada is the cornerstone on which all CSC policy, plans and decisions are founded. The policies, plans and decisions which are guided by the Mission Document will affect the size of the inmate population. Further, the interpretation and use of the Mission Document by CSC personnel in their day-to-day activities, and for major policy consultations, will have a
26 bearing on the outlook of offenders as to the merits of societal values. The end result should be a decrease in the inmate population from what it would be without a Mission Document. 2. REVIEW OF OFFENDER MANAGEMENT The overall objective of the Review of Offender Management is to develop correctional practices that will increase offender motivation for, and participation in institutional programs. For example, the Review of Inmate Employment, Productivity and Deployment study put forth recommendations for an employment and pay framework that would encourage and motivate inmates to work constructively and prepare themselves for successful reintegration with the community. The Incentive/Disincentive Review proposed that the remission system be restructured so that earned remission credits can be used as a positive motivational tool rather than being used strictly as a punitive measure. In addition, the Institutional Program Alignment Review believed that more attention should be paid to the "mix" of programs across security levels so that inmates have the opportunity to participate in programs suitable to their needs. These and other recommendations of the review committees reflect the shift away from the opportunities model of corrections and towards CSC's new philosophy based on actively motivating offenders to deal with their criminality. Consistent with the Mission Statement, the Review of Offender Management project recognizes that offenders have the potential to become law abiding citizens and the provision of programs and opportunities to assist offenders in developing social and living skills are a means to this end. 3. TASK FORCE ON COMMUNITY AND INSTITUTIONAL PROGRAMS The purpose of the Task Force was: To develop and propose improvements to offender programs in order to contribute more effectively to the protection of the public by reducing risk and by helping offenders to become law-abiding citizens. The report of the task force, along with the strategic objectives supporting the Mission of the Service, reinforce the importance of providing programs, assistance and supervision to support the gradual release of offenders at the earliest time they can be legally and 'safely released. The goal of implementing the Task Force recommendations is
27 to increase the number of safe releases to the community, and to have them released as close to the eligibility dates as is possible, without jeopardizing risk to the community. It is expected that the pilot implementation project will demonstrate that this is possible and will provide information on the magnitude of the changes. Therefore, if successful, the proportion of the offender population which is incarcerated will be reduced, and the proportion serving their sentence in the community will increase. This would lead to a reduction in the forecast of the number of cells required in the future. At this stage it is difficult to predict the change, as a number of factors outside the control of CSC can impact on the size of the penitentiary population. 4. MENTAL HEALTH The Correctional Service of Canada has recently conducted a major survey of the prevalence of mental disorders among federally incarcerated male offenders. A structured survey instrument was used to interview a large sample of offenders selected to be representative of the federal offender population. The findings of the survey, which indicated a generally high prevalence of serious and multiple disorders, will provide the critical empirical base from which to develop a policy framework for the effective delivery of mental health services and programs. 5. NEW DIRECTIONS IN OFFENDER ASSESSMENT The research literature on correctional treatment suggests that more effective management of offenders in both institutions and the community is possible with the use of appropriate tools for risk and needs assessment. Recently, a major research program has been undertaken in developing and valjdating: a new security classification model for initial placement of inmates, and a community risk/needs assessment tool for. varying levels of supervision of offenders while under conditional release. With the increasing number of sex offenders that the Service must manage, and with the development of a more extensive network of community based programming, explicit criteria for assessment of risk will be needed in order to use our supervision resources for sex offenders in an optimal manner. In collaboration with the three regional psychiatric/treatment centres, a data base, including case
28 history information, on several hundred released sex offenders has already been established and a major research initiative is underway to: - develop a common approach to track the outcomes of both treated and untreated sex offenders, and - identify high risk factors related to sex offending with a view to identifying explicit criteria for assessment of risk for this group. 6. SUMt4MY The comments concerning these influences on the size of the inmate population are necessarily tentative. Obviously, specific rates of change cannot be provided. Nevertheless, this section does breathe life into the forecasted populations provided in this report. It is important to remember that increases in the institutional population are not inevitable but are the product of complex interactions between people, agencies, policy and social structures. This complexity is belied somewhat by the presentation of this section; each element examined was abstracted, frozen.in time, analyzed and then re-inserted into the social structure. One of the difficulties of this type of analysis is that the interactive effect of the various factors cannot be addressed adequately. No attempt was made to determine these combined effects. Nevertheless, it is hoped that this section enriched the quantitative data provided in the report.
ANNEX A TOTAL OFFENDER POPULATION Table. of Contents Page 1. Total Offender Population by Region A-1 2. Total Offender Population: Actual and Forecasted A-2
1989/90 OFFENDER POPULATION FORECAST A-1 TOTAL OFFENDER POPULATION YEAR ATL QUE ONT PRA PAC CANADA 1989/90 2139 5907 5387 4210 2761 20404 1990/91 2212 5977 5639 4280 2835 20943 1 1991/92 2254 6056 5869 4361 2902 21442 1992/93 2308 6137 6090 4452 2946 21933 1993/94 2371 6207 6172 4594 2981 22325 * Total offender population = Male and female on-register populations + Full parole population + Mandatory supervision population (Day parole population is included in on-register populations.)
IIIII MI MI OM 1111.11 OM MI OM Ilia 1111111 OM MI 11111, MI UM MI A-2 Thousands TOTAL OFFENDER POPULATION ACTUAL AND FORECASTED ACTUAL, -4"- FORECAST 20.5 H 18.5 7 16.5 14.5 (as of March 31) 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94
ANNEX B MALE ON-REGISTER POPULATION Table of Contents Page 1. Male On-Register Population by Region B-1 2. On-Register Population: Actual and Forecasted (1977/78 to 1998/99) a. Canada b. Atlantic c. Quebec d. Ontario e. Prairie f. Pacific B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6 B-7 3. On-Register Population by Security Level/ Special Accommodation a. Canada b. Atlantic B-9 c. Quebec B-10 d. Ontario B-11 e. Prairie B-12 f. Pacific B - 13 NOTE: Below each regional chart is a calculation as to the stdplus or shortfall of accommodation based on the forcasted population and the current capacity. It is cautioned that this does not take any security level requirements into account nor does it consider any additional accomodation which may become available.