IE5203 Decision Analysis Case Study 1: Exxoff New Product Research & Development Problem Solutions Guide using DPL9 Luo Chunling Jiang Weiwei Teaching Assistants 1. Creating Value models Create value node: Market Volume Click Add tag Click under the new node button Select Value node button 8-exoff-soln-1
Put the button on the screen Type in the name and data 8-exoff-soln-2
Creating other value nodes Methods are similar and data for all value nodes are as follows: 8-exoff-soln-3
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Note that the DPL9 Built-in financial function @PV is used. Note that the DPL9 Built-in financial function @max is used. 8-exoff-soln-7
Add arcs between value node C and value node Annual Profit Right click value node C and select Add Arc or click Add 8-exoff-soln-8
First click value node C and then click value node Annual Profit. Add other arcs The methods are similar 8-exoff-soln-9
2. Generating Individual Tornado diagrams Generating Tornado diagram for NPV1 Click Home Click Tornado Select Value Click V and select the NPV_1 8-exoff-soln-10
Click remove to remove irrelevant variables and enter the low, nominal, and high values of each variable Click and obtain the Tornado Diagram for NPV_1 (Invest in R&D and Market) Generating Tornado diagram for other NPV values 8-exoff-soln-11
Methods are similar. Tornado Diagram for NPV_2 (NPV Invest in R&D, Don t market): Tornado Diagram for NPV_3 (Do not invest): 8-exoff-soln-12
Tornado Diagram for NPV_Invest_CL (Invest in R&D closed Loop): 8-exoff-soln-13
3. Deterministic (Base Case) Decision Model Duplicate the Market Volume Find the Workspace manager Select Market Volume and right click it Select Duplicate and then the Market Volume is duplicated 8-exoff-soln-14
Create decision node Click Add Select Decision node Put the button on the screen Type in name and data 8-exoff-soln-15
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Add acres Add acres between values nodes and decision nodes Generate decision tree On the bottom of the screen, default tree appears as follows Double click decision node in the default decision tree (nodes in red circle in above figure) 8-exoff-soln-17
Set them as Asymmetric Double click NPV_3 under Yes Input the data as follows 8-exoff-soln-18
Similarly, change other objective functions as follows 8-exoff-soln-19
Select the first decision node and the second decision node in the decision tree (in green and red circle) using Ctrl+click. Then Click Subtree To perform a subtree, Select the first node in the subtree you wish to perform and the endpoint(s) (you can select more than one endpoint by using Ctrl+click) at which the subtree is to be performed. Generate Optimal policy tree for deterministic (base case) model 8-exoff-soln-20
Click Decision Analysis under Home tab Policy tree is generated The optimal decision based on the base case analysis is Invest in R&D 8-exoff-soln-21
Generate Combined Tornado Diagrams for the initial alternatives Click Tornado under the Home Tab The combined tornado is generated 8-exoff-soln-22
4. Probabilistic Decision model Duplicate the last model as described above Convert sensitive variable C from value node to discrete chance node Select C Right click and select Change Node To and then select Discrete Chance Enter the probabilities and values for production cost: 8-exoff-soln-23
Convert sensitive variable P from value node to discrete chance node The method is similar 8-exoff-soln-24
Generate Decision Tree Add arcs Generate Default tree and modify the decision tree just as the deterministic model 8-exoff-soln-25
Generate the Optimal Decision Policy Tree Generate Risk Profile Click Initial Decision Alternatives1 in Work Manager 8-exoff-soln-26
Select Decumulative under Format Tab 8-exoff-soln-27
5. Value of Information Expected value of information and Control for all singles variables If we click VOIC before start Decision Analysis, Value of information and Control for all single variables are automatically reported. EVPI for both variables is zero Value of control for potency index is higher than that for production cost. Hence is more worthwhile to spend money to improve the potency index in the production than any production cost control measures. 8-exoff-soln-28
Joint perfect information on p and C DPL supports only single variable value of information and control. Hence, joint EVPI must be performed manually as follows: 1) Duplicate the probabilistic model 2) Add information arcs from the uncertain nodes to the decision node 3) Reorder the decision tree if necessary for the correct ordering of the nodes Certainty Equivalent free perfect joint information is obtained from the decision policy tree 8-exoff-soln-29
Joint-EVPT on p and C=$25-23.9=$1.01 million 8-exoff-soln-30
6. Real Option Analysis using Controls and taking difference in CEs Duplicate the previous probabilistic Decision Model before doing this destructive step An option in a decision model may be turned off by specifying Control on the branch definition for the decision node: Decision Tree with control branch is indicated in bold: 8-exoff-soln-31
Optimal Decision Policy without option to market or not: Certainty Equivalent with no option=$16.5 million Value of option to terminate project after R&D=23.9-16.5=$7.4 million 8-exoff-soln-32
7. Real option analysis Using Option Value Chart on the Original Probabilistic Model Click Option Value under Home tab Specify the Default Alternatives 8-exoff-soln-33
Option Value Chart is Generated 8. Considering Aversion to Risk Duplicate the previous probabilistic Decision Model Create a value node for Risk Tolerance to the model: 8-exoff-soln-34
Set RT as the Risk Tolerance of the model Generate Optimal Policy Tree ( at RT=$2 million) At a risk of tolerance of $2 million, the optimal decision is not to invest Value of Information and Control under risk tolerance of $2 million 8-exoff-soln-35
Notice that the expected value of information for both variables is no longer zero compared with the risk neutral case. Rainbow Diagram by varying the risk Tolerance Click Rainbow under Home Tab Set as follows: Rainbow Diagram by varying the risk Tolerance is generated as follows 8-exoff-soln-36
The risk tolerance at which the decision between Invest and Do not invest can be determined more accurately by plotting rainbow drawing with smaller step size around the value of $3m. 8-exoff-soln-37