PROPRIETARY RESEARCH EARNINGS AGGREGATES REPORTING ANALYST: Greg Harrison October 8, 2015 EUROPEAN AGGREGATE ESTIMATES AND REVISIONS Third quarter earnings are expected to decline 4.1% from Q3 2014. Third quarter revenue is expected to decline 8.3% from Q3 2014. 2 companies in the STOXX 600 have reported earnings to date for Q3 2015. Of these, both reported earnings above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 49% beat analyst EPS estimates. 2 companies in the STOXX 600 have reported revenue to date for Q3 2015. Of these, both% reported revenue above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 55% beat analyst revenue estimates. The forward P/E ratio for the STOXX 600 is 14.6. There are 8 STOXX 600 companies with quarterly estimates expected to report Q3 2015 earnings during the week of October 12. SECTION A: EARNINGS OUTLOOK Q3 2015: EARNINGS REVISIONS Exhibit 1A. STOXX 600: Q3 2015 Earnings Growth Estimate Trend 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% -4.0% -4.5% 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29 11/5 11/12 11/19 11/26 12/3 12/10 12/17 12/24 12/31 STOXX 600 Earnings Outlook provides analysis and commentary on aggregate earnings estimate revisions, growth rates and valuations for companies in the STOXX Europe 600 index. View all Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research subscription channels. All data sourced from Thomson Reuters Eikon, a complete solution for research and analytics. It places the most comprehensive market information, news, analytics and trading tools available into a desktop as simple to use as the Internet. Thomson Reuters Eikon clients can run fundamental and technical screens against a global dataset representing more than 100 countries and over 200,000 securities. Learn more. Request a free trial of Thomson Reuters Eikon today. 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license.
Q3 2015: EARNINGS SCORECARDS Exhibit 2A. STOXX 600: Q3 2015 Earnings vs. Expectations Surprise Reported Cos. w/ Ests. Sector Above % Match % Below % Factor % Total # Total # Basic Materials - - - - 0 31 Consumer Cyclicals 100% 0% 0% 4% 2 35 Consumer Non-Cyclicals - - - - 0 16 Energy - - - - 0 21 Financials - - - - 0 66 Healthcare - - - - 0 25 Industrials - - - - 0 53 Technology - - - - 0 16 Telecommunications Services - - - - 0 16 Utilities - - - - 0 12 STOXX 600 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4% 2 291 Through October 8, 2 companies in the STOXX 600 Index reported earnings for Q3 2015. Of these, 100% reported earnings above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter (since 2011), 49% of companies beat estimates, 8% match and 43% miss estimates. Over the past four quarters, 52% of companies beat estimates, 9% matched and 39% missed estimates. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 4% above estimates, which is in line with the 4% long-term (since 2011) average surprise factor, and in line with the 4% surprise factor recorded over the past four quarters. Exhibit 3A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2014 Earnings vs. Expectations Reported Cos. w/ Ests. Sector Above % Match % Below % Total # Total # Basic Materials 56% 0% 44% 50 52 Consumer Cyclicals 46% 13% 41% 71 73 Consumer Non-Cyclicals 61% 6% 32% 31 32 Energy 57% 4% 39% 28 28 Financials 34% 9% 58% 116 119 Healthcare 49% 9% 43% 35 37 Industrials 46% 9% 44% 106 110 Technology 82% 5% 14% 22 24 Telecommunications Services 43% 5% 52% 21 21 Utilities 59% 0% 41% 17 17 STOXX 600 47.9% 7.4% 44.7% 497 513 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_102 2
Q3 2015: REVENUE SCORECARDS Exhibit 4A. STOXX 600: Q3 2015 Revenue vs. Expectations Surprise Reported Cos. w/ Ests. Sector Above % Match % Below % Factor % Total # Total # Basic Materials - - - - 0 31 Consumer Cyclicals 100% 0% 0% 1% 2 35 Consumer Non-Cyclicals - - - - 0 19 Energy - - - - 0 21 Financials - - - - 0 61 Healthcare - - - - 0 26 Industrials - - - - 0 55 Technology - - - - 0 16 Telecommunications Services - - - - 0 20 Utilities - - - - 0 12 STOXX 600 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% 2 296 Through October 8, 2 companies in the STOXX 600 Index reported revenues for Q3 2015. Of these, 100% beat analyst expectations. In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 1% above estimates. Exhibit 5A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2014 Revenue vs. Expectations Reported Cos. w/ Ests. Sector Above % Match % Below % Total # Total # Basic Materials 56% 0% 44% 50 52 Consumer Cyclicals 60% 1% 39% 70 73 Consumer Non-Cyclicals 55% 0% 45% 31 32 Energy 46% 0% 54% 28 28 Financials 52% 0% 48% 114 119 Healthcare 49% 0% 51% 35 37 Industrials 52% 0% 48% 106 110 Technology 82% 0% 18% 22 24 Telecommunications Services 67% 0% 33% 21 21 Utilities 41% 0% 59% 17 17 STOXX 600 54.7% 0.2% 45.1% 494 513 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_102 3
Q3 2015: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES Exhibit 6A. STOXX 600: Q3 2015 Earnings Growth (Based on 291 Companies with Estimates) Earnings $B Earnings $B Growth $B Growth % Sector Q315 Q314 Q315 Q315 Basic Materials 5.9 6.4-0.5-7.3% Consumer Cyclicals 10.4 9.7 0.8 7.9% Consumer Non-Cyclicals 4.7 4.8-0.1-2.3% Energy 9.2 16.0-6.8-42.4% Financials 30.2 30.2 0.0-0.1% Healthcare 13.5 13.5 0.0 0.3% Industrials 11.0 9.8 1.2 12.0% Technology 3.7 3.4 0.3 10.1% Telecommunication Services 4.3 3.7 0.6 15.6% Utilities 2.6 2.1 0.5 21.6% STOXX 600 95.6 99.6-4.1-4.1% The estimated earnings growth rate for the STOXX 600 for Q3 2015 is -4.1%. The STOXX 600 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $95.6B in Q2 2015, compared to share-weighted earnings of $99.6B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current constituents) in Q3 2014. Six of the ten sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to Q3 2014. The Utilities sector has the highest earnings growth rate for the quarter, while the Energy sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to Q3 2014. The Utilities sector has the highest earnings growth rate (21.6%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $2.6B in Q3 2015, compared to earnings of $2.1B in Q3 2014. Two of the three industry groups in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The Electric Utilities & IPPs industry group has the highest growth rate within the sector at 22%. The Energy sector has the lowest growth rate (-42.4%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $9.2B in Q3 2015, relative to earnings of $16.0B in Q3 2014. The Oil & Gas industry group has the lowest growth rate within the sector at -44%. Exhibit 7A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2015 Earnings Growth (Based on 509 Companies with Estimates) Earnings $B Earnings $B Growth $B Growth % Sector 2015 2014 2015 2015 Basic Materials 38.5 42.6-4.2-9.8% Consumer Cyclicals 71.3 62.0 9.3 15.0% Consumer Non-Cyclicals 52.9 55.1-2.2-3.9% Energy 42.3 70.9-28.6-40.3% Financials 188.5 138.9 49.6 35.8% Healthcare 68.4 67.3 1.1 1.6% Industrials 68.4 59.5 8.9 14.9% Technology 17.9 16.0 1.9 12.2% Telecommunications Services 20.5 15.0 5.5 36.8% Utilities 26.5 26.9-0.4-1.5% STOXX 600 595.2 554.1 41.0 7.4% 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_102 4
Q3 2015: REVENUE GROWTH RATES Exhibit 8A. STOXX 600: Q3 2015 Revenue Growth (Based on 296 Companies with Estimates) Revenue $B Revenue $B Growth $B Growth % Sector Q315 Q314 Q315 Q315 Basic Materials 118.7 117.6 1.0 0.9% Consumer Cyclicals 223.0 203.9 19.0 9.3% Consumer Non-Cyclicals 96.6 95.2 1.4 1.5% Energy 233.5 365.5-132.0-36.1% Financials 196.4 217.7-21.3-9.8% Healthcare 86.9 82.9 4.0 4.8% Industrials 224.1 217.9 6.2 2.9% Technology 31.4 28.4 3.0 10.6% Telecommunications Services 77.0 72.9 4.2 5.7% Utilities 38.9 44.8-5.9-13.2% STOXX 600 1,326.4 1,446.9-120.4-8.3% The estimated revenue growth rate for the STOXX 600 for Q3 2015 is 8.3%. The STOXX 600 is expected to earn revenues of $1,326.4B in Q3 2015 compared to $1,446.9B in Q3 2014. Seven of the ten sectors anticipate revenue growth for the quarter. The Technology sector is expected to have the highest revenue growth rate for the quarter, while the Energy sector is expected to have the lowest revenue growth rate. The Technology sector expects the highest revenue growth rate (10.6%) for the quarter. It is expected to generate sales of $31.4B in Q3 2015, compared to sales of $28.4B in Q3 2014. The Energy sector has the lowest revenue growth rate at (-36.1%). The sector is expected to post sales of $233.5B in Q3 2015, relative to sales of $365.5B in Q3 2014. Exhibit 9A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2015 Revenue Growth (Based on 505 Companies with Estimates) Revenue $B Revenue $B Growth $B Growth % Sector 2015 2014 2015 2015 Basic Materials 649.7 642.5 7.1 1.1% Consumer Cyclicals 1,318.0 1,208.3 109.7 9.1% Consumer Non-Cyclicals 738.5 715.0 23.5 3.3% Energy 1,236.6 1,652.5-415.8-25.2% Financials 1,511.3 1,418.8 92.5 6.5% Healthcare 424.0 401.7 22.2 5.5% Industrials 1,274.9 1,237.6 37.3 3.0% Technology 160.6 142.2 18.4 13.0% Telecommunications Services 336.4 305.7 30.7 10.0% Utilities 637.7 632.3 5.3 0.8% STOXX 600 8,287.8 8,356.7-68.9-0.8% 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_102 5
Q3 2015: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES BY COUNTRY Exhibit 10A. STOXX 600: Q3 2015 Earnings Growth Rate Estimates by Country Ireland Greece Bermuda France Norway Great Britain Luxembourg 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Analysts expect positive earnings growth from 8 of the 20 countries represented in the STOXX 600 index. Ireland (35%) and Spain (19%) have the highest estimated earnings growth rates, while Luxembourg (-99%) and Great Britain (-30%) have the lowest estimated growth. Spain Denmark Czech Republic Netherlands Germany Sweden Portugal Finland Jersey Belgium Switzerland STOXX 600 Italy 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_102 6
FORWARD FOUR-QUARTER P/E RATIO Exhibit 11A. STOXX 600: Forward P/E Ratio P/E Ratio Number of Companies CY 2015 15.6 508 Forward 14.6 508 CY 2016 14.3 508 The forward P/E ratio for the STOXX 600 is 14.6. Q3 2015 Q2 2016: EARNINGS GROWTH The estimated earnings growth rates for the STOXX 600 for Q3 2015 through Q2 2016 are -4%, 51%, 0% and 10%, respectively. For sector-level growth rates for Q3 2015 through Q2 2016, see Exhibits 2C-5C in this report. EARNINGS CALENDAR The next several weeks will see companies report earnings for Q3 2015. There are 8 STOXX 600 companies with quarterly estimates scheduled to report Q3 2015 earnings during the week of October 12. Exhibit 12A. Number of Companies Reporting Q3 2015 Earnings Reported Report Report Report Q3 2015 To Date This Week Next Week Remaining STOXX 600 2 8 47 234 Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_102 7
SECTION B: EARNINGS CALENDAR MONDAY: OCTOBER 12 Exhibit 1B. Monday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr/Semi Est Yr Ago % Dif Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_102 8
TUESDAY: OCTOBER 13 Exhibit 2B. Tuesday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr/Semi Est Yr Ago % Dif 10/13/2015 KNIN.VX KUEHNE+NAGEL INTL. QTR 1.47 1.38 6.5 Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_102 9
WEDNESDAY: OCTOBER 14 Exhibit 3B. Wednesday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr/Semi Est Yr Ago % Dif 10/14/2015 AGGK.L AGGREKO QTR NA 10/14/2015 ASML.AS ASML HOLDING QTR 0.82 0.63 30.2 10/14/2015 SMWH.L WH SMITH SEMI NA Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_102 10
THURSDAY: OCTOBER 15 Exhibit 4B. Thursday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr/Semi Est Yr Ago % Dif 10/15/2015 CAST.ST CASTELLUM QTR 0.28 0.24 16.7 10/15/2015 EMSN.S EMS-CHEMIE 'N' QTR NA 10/15/2015 ULVR.L UNILEVER (UK) QTR 0.52 NA 10/15/2015 UNc.AS UNILEVER CERTS. QTR 0.57 0.52 9.6 10/15/2015 ZOT.MC ZARDOYA OTIS QTR NA Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_102 11
FRIDAY: OCTOBER 16 Exhibit 5B. Friday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr/Semi Est Yr Ago % Dif 10/16/2015 ELI1V.HE ELISA QTR 0.47 0.48-2.1 10/16/2015 GETIb.ST GETINGE QTR 0.19 0.28-32.1 10/16/2015 OCDO.L OCADO GROUP QTR NA 10/16/2015 SKFb.ST SKF 'B' QTR 0.38 0.37 2.7 10/16/2015 BOK.L BOOKER GROUP SEMI NA Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_102 12
SECTION C: EARNINGS DATA TABLES Exhibit 1C. STOXX 600: Q3 2015 Earnings Scorecard Sector Above Match Below Surprise Reported Index Basic Materials - - - - 0 31 Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 100% 0% 0% 4% 2 35 Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services - - - - 0 16 Energy - - - - 0 21 Financials - - - - 0 66 Healthcare - - - - 0 25 Industrials - - - - 0 53 Technology - - - - 0 16 Telecommunications Services - - - - 0 16 Utilities - - - - 0 12 STOXX 600 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4% 2 291 Exhibit 2C. STOXX 600: Q3 2015 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul 1 Apr 1 Jan Basic Materials -7.3% -6.5% 3.4% 5.8% -23.9% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 7.9% 8.1% 11.5% 9.4% 82.9% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services -2.3% -1.5% 2.5% 4.0% 36.7% Energy -42.4% -42.4% -35.3% -56.7% -25.7% Financials -0.1% 1.3% 7.7% 13.3% 46.0% Healthcare 0.3% 0.2% 2.6% 3.0% 5.0% Industrials 12.0% 11.8% 14.3% 13.1% 15.5% Technology 10.1% 9.5% 16.3% 14.8% 12.0% Telecommunications Services 15.6% 14.6% -0.2% 4.4% 13.1% Utilities 21.6% 20.9% -5.6% 0.9% 17.0% STOXX 600-4.1% -3.7% -0.3% -3.3% 13.4% Number of Companies Included in Estimate 291 264 259 238 156 Exhibit 3C. STOXX 600: Q4 2015 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul 1 Apr 1 Jan Basic Materials 0.9% 0.6% 16.9% 23.1% -2.4% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 15.1% 15.6% 29.2% 29.0% 85.9% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services -4.3% -2.9% 2.0% 2.5% 18.3% Energy -21.9% -21.9% 0.8% -10.8% -3.0% Financials 606.4% 621.1% 297.7% 57.5% 104.7% Healthcare 13.2% 12.7% 16.0% 20.5% 14.2% Industrials 43.2% 43.6% 38.3% 54.8% 17.5% Technology 8.5% 8.8% 12.8% 12.5% 18.0% Telecommunications Services 221.8% 221.3% 163.3% -6.1% 7.6% Utilities 56.8% 56.3% 61.7% 24.8% 14.8% STOXX 600 50.5% 51.9% 51.3% 26.2% 21.4% Number of Companies Included in Estimate 262 262 260 235 134 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_102 13
Exhibit 4C. STOXX 600: Q1 2016 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul 1 Apr Basic Materials 10.1% 10.2% -7.2% 0.5% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 4.1% 4.3% 15.4% 12.6% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services -9.2% -9.2% 37.2% 11.0% Energy -31.2% -31.3% 2.7% 49.6% Financials 11.7% 12.2% 2.0% 18.6% Healthcare 1.9% 3.6% 1.4% 16.9% Industrials -12.9% -13.2% -13.1% 14.2% Technology 28.5% 28.6% 34.3% 28.6% Telecommunications Services 3.6% 3.7% 1.1% 13.7% Utilities 8.2% 5.5% 18.7% -2.5% STOXX 600-0.5% -0.2% 2.6% 21.9% Number of Companies Included in Estimate 144 143 119 96 Exhibit 5C. STOXX 600: Q2 2016 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul Basic Materials 14.7% 14.3% -6.4% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 23.1% 16.6% 10.7% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 34.7% 38.1% 78.3% Energy -7.0% -4.3% 28.0% Financials 13.6% 16.4% 41.4% Healthcare 9.9% 8.9% 10.9% Industrials 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% Technology 12.3% 12.9% 24.5% Telecommunications Services 7.5% 10.1% 4.1% Utilities -1.5% -5.8% 11.1% STOXX 600 9.5% 10.4% 21.4% Number of Companies Included in Estimate 136 128 101 Exhibit 6C. STOXX 600: Q3 2016 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct Basic Materials 40.2% 40.2% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 19.4% 19.4% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 45.8% 45.8% Energy 9.4% 9.4% Financials 12.0% 12.0% Healthcare 15.3% 15.3% Industrials 3.2% 3.2% Technology 17.8% 17.8% Telecommunications Services -0.8% -0.8% Utilities 25.0% 25.0% STOXX 600 15.0% 15.0% Number of Companies Included in Estimate 114 114 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_102 14
Exhibit 7C. STOXX 600: CY 2015 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul 1 Apr 1 Jan Basic Materials -9.8% -9.5% -4.8% 2.6% 12.0% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 15.0% 15.9% 20.2% 18.5% 15.6% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services -3.9% -3.6% -2.0% -2.5% 8.4% Energy -40.3% -40.1% -32.1% -39.7% -7.6% Financials 35.8% 36.1% 32.1% 20.6% 20.7% Healthcare 1.6% 1.6% 2.6% 2.8% 7.6% Industrials 14.9% 14.6% 17.4% 17.3% 14.9% Technology 12.2% 12.7% 13.7% 15.2% 20.3% Telecommunications Services 36.8% 36.5% 37.1% 35.2% 10.9% Utilities -1.5% -1.2% -1.7% -0.9% 1.9% STOXX 600 7.4% 7.6% 9.0% 5.9% 11.6% Number of Companies Included in Estimate 509 509 511 508 505 Exhibit 8C. STOXX 600: CY 2016 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul 1 Apr Basic Materials 14.1% 14.7% 19.9% 17.6% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 13.0% 14.3% 13.0% 13.5% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 7.2% 7.2% 8.5% 8.6% Energy 7.9% 9.2% 26.0% 40.0% Financials 7.6% 7.8% 10.6% 11.7% Healthcare 8.5% 8.4% 9.3% 9.6% Industrials 10.4% 10.5% 11.2% 11.9% Technology 16.5% 16.6% 17.3% 14.8% Telecommunications Services 11.5% 12.1% 14.6% 14.8% Utilities -1.6% -1.6% 1.4% 1.0% STOXX 600 9.1% 9.4% 12.4% 13.6% Number of Companies Included in Estimate 508 508 511 503 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_102 15
Exhibit 9C. STOXX 600: Actual Earnings Growth Rates Sector 2Q15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14 2Q14 Basic Materials 5.7% 29.6% 26.5% 19.4% 13.3% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 4.3% 28.7% 13.0% 18.9% 24.8% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services -14.0% 2.2% -12.4% 8.5% 25.8% Energy -44.8% -32.1% -22.7% -3.2% 23.7% Financials 42.9% 37.0% 156.8% 23.5% 2.3% Healthcare 3.8% 4.5% -8.6% 6.8% 2.1% Industrials 20.7% 40.9% -21.8% 6.6% 12.4% Technology 8.9% 21.6% 17.8% 35.5% 47.9% Telecommunications Services -3.9% 30.9% -55.0% -2.6% -11.9% Utilities -1.0% -12.1% -18.5% -3.4% 7.3% STOXX 600 5.5% 11.1% 7.7% 11.7% 11.1% Exhibit 10C. STOXX 600: Actual vs. Estimate (Above/Match/Below) 2Q15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14 2Q14 Above 54% 51% 50% 52% 48% Match 10% 10% 8% 9% 8% Below 36% 39% 43% 39% 44% Exhibit 11C. STOXX 600: Actual vs. Estimate (Aggregate Difference) 2Q15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14 2Q14 Surprise Factor 2.8% 10.3% -5.7% 3.9% 4.0% 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_102 16
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