Mekong River Commission Office of the Secretariat in Phnom Penh (OSP) 576 National Road, # 2, Chak Angre Krom, P.O. Box 623, Phnom Penh, Cambodia Tel. (855-23) 425 353. Fax (855-23) 425 363 Office of the Secretariat in Vientiane (OSV), Office of the Chief Executive Officer 184 Fa Ngoum Road, P.O. Box 6101, Vientiane, Lao PDR Tel: (856-21) 263 263. Fax: (856-21) 263 264 TERMS OF REFERENCE Project Title : Senior International Flood Damage/Risk Assessment Expert (SIFDRAE) Title of Consultancy : Support to FMMP deliver the Initial Studies and contributions to the Council Study and the Mekong Adaptation Strategy Action Plan (MASAP) Division : Technical Support Division Programme : Flood Management and Mitigation Programme Duty Station : Home Base and Office of the Secretariat, Phnom Penh, Cambodia Duration : A maximum of 80 working days (July December 2015) Reporting to : FMMP Programme Coordinator and Senior International Project Management Expert (SIPME) of FMMP 1. The Mekong River Commission The Mekong River Commission (MRC) was established by the 1995 Agreement on Cooperation for the Sustainable Development of the Mekong River Basin, between the Governments of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam. In accordance with the Agreement, the Mission of MRC is to promote and coordinate sustainable management and development of water and related resources for the countries mutual benefit and the people s well-being by implementing strategic programmes and activities and providing scientific information and policy advice. 2. Background FMMP 2004-2010 After the devastating floods of 2000 and 2001 the MRC Member Countries of the Mekong River Commission (MRC) entered into discussions to take drastic steps towards the reduction of damage to infrastructure, economic losses and the loss of lives and livelihoods as a result of extreme floods. The Mekong River Commission s Joint Committee and Council endorsed the Flood Management and Mitigation Strategy in 2001, which was followed by the design and implementation of a dedicated Flood Management and Mitigation Programme (FMMP) in 2004. The implementation of the FMMP is supported by a large number of developments partners. The FMMP was designed as an integrated programme (FMMP 2004-2010) consisting of five components: Terms of Reference Senior International Flood Damage/Risk Assessment Expert (SIFDRAE) Page 1 of 9
Component 1 : Component 2 : Component 3 : Component 4 : Component 5 : The Establishment of a Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre Structural Measures and Flood Proofing Enhancing Cooperation in Addressing Trans-boundary Flood Issues Flood Emergency Management Strengthening Land Management Development partners agreed to make funding available for the implementation of all flood management and mitigation (FMM) activities, which are considered under the five FMMP components. Implementation of some activities in the field of flood forecasting and early warning was initiated as early as 2002; other activities in the area of flood preparedness management strengthening and land management were taken up by mid-2004. By November 2004, most funding and support agreements for FMMP s implementation had been signed. By mid-2005 key function staffs joined FMMP and the institutional framework and management structures were developed. The Programme Implementation Plan (PIP) was approved by December 2005. The operations of MRC s Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Center (RFMMC) were endorsed in August 2005, allowing the RFMMC to operate within the premises of the Department of Hydrology and River Works of the Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology (MOWRAM) of Cambodia. By January 2006 FMMP was transferred to a new location, the dedicated building for the RFMMC in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. The formal hand-over ceremony of the RFMMC building to MRC was celebrated on 5 th April 2008. The countries of the Lower Mekong Basin over the years have been impacted negatively by floods and flooding. Although significant progress has been made in dealing with floods through improved planning, preparedness, forecasting and warning, emergency management and response, rehabilitation, better land-use etc. reality shows that flood risk in the Lower Mekong Basin has increased as a consequence of rapid and continuing economic development, population growth, infrastructure developments and land-use changes. The regional FMM vision to reduce the loss of lives and economic losses due to floods, while maintaining the environmental benefits of floods is therefore as valid now as it was in 2001, when the vision was formulated. FMMP 2011-2015 All MRC Programmes developed their programme documents for the period 2011-2015 in line with the goals of the MRC Strategic Plan for this period. FMMP is one of the twelve MRC programmes and, since since 2012, has developed particularly strong ties with the Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative (CCAI), the Information and Knowledge Management Programme (IKMP) and the Basin Development Programme (BDP), while links have become increasingly stronger with the Integrated Capacity Building Programme (ICBP) and the Drought Management Programme (DMP). FMMP is also in close contact with the Mekong Integrated Water Resources Management Project (Mekong-IWRM-P) 1, while interaction with the Navigation Programme (NAP), the Environment Programme (EP), the Agriculture and Irrigation Management Programme (AIP), the Fisheries Programme (FP) and the Sustainable Hydropower Initiative (ISH) has been more of a more ad-hoc character. The linkages between FMMP and other MRC Programmes have been well identified. 1 The M-IWRM-P is considered a follow-up activity of the WUP. Terms of Reference Senior International Flood Damage/Risk Assessment Expert (SIFDRAE) Page 2 of 9
Flood Management and Mitigation (FMM) represents one of the MRC priorities, as reflected in the MRC Strategic Plan 2011-2015. The MRC will continue to support the MRC Member Countries in this field of flood management and mitigation through FMMP 2011-2015, which follows on from FMMP 2004-2010. The Programme Document for FMMP 2011-2015 (Volume 1: main report and Volume 2: annexes) was adopted by the 33 rd meeting of the MRC Joint Committee on 25-26 March 2011 and serves as an important MRC reference document. The Initial Studies An important component of FMMP 2011-2015 is the Initial Studies Project, which has been designed to deliver Outputs 1.2, 2.4 and 3.2 of FMMP 2011-2015, namely: Output 1.2 Output 2.4 Output 3.2 Demonstration of the formulation of IFRM Plans and Strategic Directions to manage future and residual flood risks, including the impacts of possible future climate change, for the Nam Mae Kok Basin of Thailand and the Xe Bang Fai Basin of Lao PDR. Impact of climate change on short and long-term flood behaviour and forecasting and climate change adaptation are systemized in the RFMMC and Member Countries. Demonstration of the formulation of an IFRM Plan and Strategic Directions to manage future and residual flood risks, including the impacts of possible future climate change and sea level rise, across the trans-boundary floodplains of Cambodia and Viet Nam s Cuu Long Delta (joint project). In addition to climate change, upstream developments (dams) and future changes to the Basin s floodplains will affect flood behaviour and flood risk in the Lower Mekong Basin. Future floodplain changes include the development of new infrastructure, increased population, changes to land-use, a higher standard of living, etc. The Initial Studies address the impacts of all these factors on future flood behaviour and flood risk in the Lower Mekong Basin. Eight tasks to deliver the above outputs are listed below and described in the Project Proposal document 2, which was accepted by the Regional Consultation Meeting of 19 September 2014 in Hanoi, Viet Nam. The Initial Studies build upon work and results obtained under FMPP 2004-2010 for the three flood focal areas (FFAs) described in Outputs 1.2 and 3.2 above. Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5 Simulation and assessment of existing flood behaviour and possible future flood behaviour under climate change across the LMB and in the three FFAs and their hotspots. Delivery of Pilot Projects to identify and implement non-structural climate change adaptation measures, including indicative IFRM Plans. Formulation of future floodplain development scenarios, embracing population growth, increase in standard of living, changes to land-use and new floodplain infrastructure developments. Assessment of possible future flood behaviour under conditions of inferred future climate change, future upstream developments (dams) and future floodplain development. Formulation of existing and future flood damage estimation relationships. 2 Initial Studies to Demonstrate the Formulation of Strategic Directions to Manage Existing, Future & Residual Flood Risks in the Lower Mekong Basin Draft proposal. FMMP, September 2014. Terms of Reference Senior International Flood Damage/Risk Assessment Expert (SIFDRAE) Page 3 of 9
Task 6 Task 7 Task 8 Assessment of existing and future flood event damage and average annual damage. Delivery of pilot studies to demonstrate the formulation of strategic directions to manage existing, future and residual flood risks in the three FFAs, including indicative IFRM Plans. Preparation of flood maps for existing and future flood situations. The Council Study The object of the Council Study is to address current uncertainties in assessing the impacts of different development opportunities in the Mekong River Basin, and so provide a set of clear, strategic, pragmatic and actionable recommendations to facilitate informed development planning along the mainstream and floodplains of the Lower Mekong Basin. The Council Study will focus on the following seven themes 3 : Theme 1 Theme 2 Theme 3 Theme 4 Theme 5 Theme 6 Theme 7 Agriculture and land-use change; Domestic and industrial water use; Flood protection structures and floodplain infrastructure, including roads on major floodplains; Hydropower development; Navigation; Irrigation; and Cumulative assessment. All MRC Programmes contribute to the Council Study, which has been assigned high priority by MRCS. Theme 3 is relevant to FMMP, namely the likely impact of existing and future floodplain infrastructure on flood behaviour, especially activities under Task 1 (existing flood behaviour), Task 3 (the formulation of future floodplain development scenarios for 2060), Task 4 (future flood behaviour), and Tasks 5 and 6 (existing and future flood damage and flood risk 4 ). To this end, FMMP has incorporated CS outputs into its IS project and will deliver to the Council Study a broad assessment of existing flood behaviour/risk across the major floodplains of the Lower Mekong Basin, along with a broad assessment of strategic directions and options to manage existing, future and residual flood risks in the LMB, taking into account likely future changes to floodplain infrastructure, land-use, land cover, urbanization, etc. MASAP The Mekong Adaptation Strategy Action Plan (MASAP) is an initiative of CCAI to formulate a basin-wide plan that identifies and prioritizes adaptation options to lessen the impacts of future CC on the following water-related sectors of the LMB: Sector 1 Flow; Sector 2 Floods; 3 4 The Council Study on the Sustainable Management and Development of the Mekong River, Including Impacts of Mainstream Hydropower Projects, Terms of Reference. Mekong River Commission, November 2013. Flood risk is assessed in terms of average annual flood damage (AAD). Terms of Reference Senior International Flood Damage/Risk Assessment Expert (SIFDRAE) Page 4 of 9
Sector 3 Sector 4 Sector 5 Sector 6 Sector 7 Drought; Hydropower; Ecosystems and biodiversity; Food security; and Socio-economics. Regarding flooding, MASAP will investigate the impact of CC on basin-wide flood behaviour (Sector 2) and flood risk (Sector 7) for a number of basin development/cc scenarios by comparing flooding behaviour in a future development/cc period to behaviour in a baseline period (1985-2007). To a large extent, MASAP is similar to the CS. MASAP Sectors 2 and 7 are relevant to FMMP, and will be addressed as discussed under the CS above. 3. Overview of Scope of Services Component 2 of FMMP 2004-2010 assembled direct annual flood damage data in some 16 impact/damage categories, generally over the period 2000-2007 5, for various districts of the three FFAs (see Table 1). These data were aggregated into three flood damage categories - Housing, Agriculture, and Infrastructure and Relief and annual damage in these categories was related to flood level, ie the damage-estimation relationship. In addition, estimates of indirect damage were also developed. Table 1 Summary Details, Flood Damage Data Available from C2 Country Province No. Districts Takeo 10 Cambodia Kandal 7 Prey Veng 5 Svey Rieng 3 Lao PDR Khammuan 1 Thailand Chieng Rai 2 An Giang 11 Dong Thap 11 Viet Nam Tien Giang Province-wide Long An 6 Kien Giang 6 The SIFDRAE is required to review the C2 flood damage data, especially the aggregation of these data into the three categories adopted by C2, and to oversee the collection and incorporation of more recent data (to 2012) and data in other nominated provinces and districts. He/she will then confirm/develop existing flood estimation relationships for districts and provinces. These relationships will be used in conjunction with the results of Task 1 of the IS to estimate existing flood damage/risk and the increase in flood damage/risk associated with future CC. On the basis of the outputs of Task 3, the SIFDRAE will adjust these existing damage relationships to reflect future damage conditions in 2060. These future damage relationships, together with the outputs of Task 4, will be used to estimate future flood damage/risk in the 2060s. The SIFDRAE will be assisted in these tasks by: 5 In some cases the period of record extended back to 1978 (Viet Nam); in other cases the period of record extended forward to 2008. Terms of Reference Senior International Flood Damage/Risk Assessment Expert (SIFDRAE) Page 5 of 9
National consultants and staff from national Line Agencies, who will be responsible for data collection, much of the processing of the flood damage data and flood damage analyses, and for the estimation of existing and future flood damages/risks; and FMMP s Flood Hydrologist, who will undertake flood frequency studies to determine the discharges/flood levels associated with standard occurrence flood events (needed for evaluating AAD). 4. Rationale In 2013, shortfalls in available funding forced the FMMP 2011-2015 to re-adjust its implementation plan for the remaining period until the end of 2015. FMMP 2011-2015 is still facing a difficult period, with shortfalls in both funding and staff. Further, available FMMP staff members are increasingly called on to respond to the requirements of other MRC Programmes, such as BDP, CCAI, IKMP, M-IWRM, and contribute to the Council Study and the preparation of MRC s Strategic Plan 2016-2020. Accordingly, in order to deliver Tasks 5 and 6 of the Initial Studies and associated outputs required by the CS and MASAP, FMMP is seeking the services of a Senior International Flood Damage/Risk Assessment Expert (SIFDRAE) to provide estimates of existing and likely future annual flood damage/risk (provincial basis) for designated flood time series in designated provinces the four Member Countries of the LMB (CS and MASAP) and in designated districts of the three FFAs described above (IS). As noted in Section 4, outputs from Tasks 3 and 4 are required to assess the effects of future floodplain developments on flood damage exposure relationships. 5. Implementation The SIFDRAE will be based at the Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre (RFMMC) at the Office of the Secretariat in Phnom Penh (OSP) and will report directly to the FMMP Programme Coordinator. He/She is expected to liaise and work closely with FMMP staff, MRC staff from other Programmes, national Line Agency Staff and other international and national consultants associated with FMMP 2011-2015. As necessary, He/She will travel to the four member Countries with FMMP staff for meetings with national Line Agency personnel and national consultants, both in the capital cities and in the FFAs, and to the Office of the Secretariat in Vientiane (OSV) for meetings with MRC staff based there. The services are to be provided over the period July to December 2015. The services are to be provided in 3 inputs: 1. An Inception Input during which the Consultant will review the available data, develop the assessment methodology, and through workshops, acquaint national consultants/staff with the required analyses. 2. An Existing Damages/Risk Input during which existing damage relationship and estimates for the IS, the CS and MASAP are finalized. 3. A Future Damages/Risk Input during which future damage relationships and estimates for the IS, CS and MASAP are finalized. 6. Tasks to be undertaken In broad terms, the SIFDRAE is to undertake the following tasks: Terms of Reference Senior International Flood Damage/Risk Assessment Expert (SIFDRAE) Page 6 of 9
Liaise with national consultants/staff to oversee the collection of additional flood damage data as needed; Review the flood damage studies undertaken by Component 2 of FMMP 2004-2010 and consider the need to modify the flood damage categories adopted by C2; Develop a methodology to estimate direct and indirect existing annual flood damage for nominated provinces and districts; Design and deliver capacity building workshops to teach the estimation of flood damages to national consultants and staff from national Line Agencies; Oversee and direct the activities of national consultants/staff and FMMP s Flood Hydrologist in estimating existing and future annual flood damage/risk to: a. Provide the Council Study and MASAP with estimates of existing and likely future levels of annual flood damage/risk in nominated provinces of the four Member Countries (MCs) of the LMB for designated sequences of annual floods down the Mekong River; b. Provide the Initial Studies with estimates of existing and likely future levels of annual flood damage/risk in nominated districts of the three FFAs described above for designated sequences of annual floods down the Mekong River; Liaise with FMMP s Project Manager to coordinate, manage and provide overall technical guidance to all activities associated with the provision of existing and future flood damage estimates for the Initial Studies, Council Study and MASAP; Liaise with the nominated Focal Persons (FPs) from FMMP, CCAI, other MRC Programmes and GIZ to guide, monitor and supervise national consultants in undertaking national task activities associated with the evaluation of flood damage and flood risk, especially with FMMP s Consultants to Task 3 in relation to adjusting the existing flood damage estimation relationships to reflect future conditions.; Prepare key reports on flood damage and flood risk estimation, including an Inception Report after the first input and Progress Reports after the remaining two inputs, a draft final report and a completion report; Prepare Briefing Notes and other documents in relation to flood damage and flood risk estimation for the Initial Studies, Council Study and MASAP, as required or as directed by the FMMP Programme Coordinator; Update the FMMP on any matters that arise in relation to the assignment that may delay or modify the outputs of the Initial Studies or Council Study; and Through FMMP management, promote the Initial Studies Project and the objectives and outcomes of the Project to all stakeholders in the MRC and the four riparian countries, and at international and regional scientific and technical meetings, as appropriate. 7. Required Outputs The following outputs are expected from the SIPM: 1. An Inception Report and two Input Progress Reports; 2. Draft and final versions of a Task Report addressing the estimation of existing and future flood damages in the four MCs; and 3. Briefing Notes and other documents, as requested. Terms of Reference Senior International Flood Damage/Risk Assessment Expert (SIFDRAE) Page 7 of 9
8. Deliverables Five hard copies and 1 soft copy of: a. Draft and final versions of the Inception Report, the two Input Progress Reports, and Flood Damage Estimation Report; b. Any other documents requested by the FMMP Programme Coordinator. 9. Time involvement The assignment is initially limited to 80 days and is tentatively expected to commence in July 2015 and finish in December 2015. With the agreement of the FMMP Coordinator, the assignment may be extended. The assignment will consist of three inputs: 1. An Inception Input period (say 40-days); 2. An Existing Damages/Risk Input period (say 20-days); and 3. A Future Damages/Risk Input period (say 20-days). 10. Qualifications required The Senior International Project Management Specialist will require the following qualifications: a. A MSc. or PhD level university degree in an appropriate field; b. Long-term, demonstrable experience in the field of flood damage estimation and flood risk assessment; c. A minimum of 15-years working experience for international organizations in the field of flood damage and flood risk assessment; d. Substantial experience working with and working for International Government agencies; e. It would be considered an advantage if the Consultant has working experience in flood damage and flood risk assessment and in one or more Mekong Countries; f. It would be considered an advantage if the Consultant possesses experience and skills in dealing with trans-boundary flood damage and flood risk issues; g. It would be considered an advantage if the Consultant has previously worked for the Mekong River Commission Secretariat on flood management and mitigation issues. 11. Conditions of Payment The consultant will work at a rate determined according to his/her qualifications and availability of funding by FMMP. Payments will be made based on the successful evaluation by FMMP of deliverables and upon request for payment by FMMP. Terms of Reference Senior International Flood Damage/Risk Assessment Expert (SIFDRAE) Page 8 of 9
12. Signature Block Consultant ( ) Date.. FMMP Programme Coordinator ( ) Date... Terms of Reference Senior International Flood Damage/Risk Assessment Expert (SIFDRAE) Page 9 of 9