Market Update November-December 2018 Seafood Pollock- Twice frozen Pollock, prices have held mostly steady into this fall even with raw material prices continuing to work higher in China. Pollock was exempt from the 10% tariff on products from China that began around October 1 st due to the raw materials coming from the US. Even with that, expect prices to start to move up as processors will have to pass along the higher raw material prices eventually as well as demand should pick up as customers move away from Chinese fish affected by the tariff to Pollock. Single frozen Pollock prices have worked lower on the larger sizes while smaller sizes are firm. Production is expected to remain soft this fall, so prices on all sizes are now expected to work slightly higher as we head toward the New Year. With many other white fish remaining strong in price this year, expect demand on Pollock to remain brisk as it is an exceptional value to other fish. Cod-Cod from China was also exempt from the first round of tariffs that were put in place starting around October 1 st. Even so, prices continue to escalate higher on both Pacific and Atlantic Cod due to strong raw material prices, with Pacific Cod prices nearing Atlantic Cod prices. Supplies remain tight and demand strong due to the quota reduction earlier this year. Raw material prices on Pacific Cod continue to run higher than Atlantic Cod at this time. Expect twice frozen for Pacific and Atlantic Cod Loins to continue to increase price into 2019 and the upcoming Lent season. This would escalate more so if the second round of tariff increases slated for January 1 st are in effect for Cod products from China. Single frozen Pacific Cod prices have stabilized and in some instances have drifted lower. Slower demand due to strong prices is putting pressure on prices even with supplies being historically low. While prices have softened some, we do expect prices to start to stabilize and possibly head higher. Lower Quotas would mainly be driving and new price increases as we head into the New Year. Whiting-Markets are now steady and supplies, while spotty at times, seem adequate to cover current demand. Pricing is expected to remain mostly steady into 2019. This all could change depending on impending tariffs coming on Chinese product and if customers adjust their fish choices due to higher Chinese priced product.
Haddock- Haddock prices have continued to increase due to tight raw materials and now the tariff increases that have been placed on Chinese produced Haddock starting on October 1. Due to the tariff, pricing will climb as much as $0.35/lb. on all Chinese produced Haddock. Prices will remain stronger into late 2018 and 2019. Quota s for the upcoming fishing season has been lowered again and prices for raw materials are escalating. Also another 15% increase is expected to hit by January 1, 2019 which will push prices up another $0.60 per pound! Due to such large price increases I think most customer will look for alternatives to Haddock in early 2019. Tilapia- Prices have started to creep up slightly on Tilapia fillets after the 10% tariff was implemented on October 1 st. Many suppliers are trying to hold prices for as long as they can to keep demand strong. But we know this will end as we near 2019 and another 15% tariff increase which is expected to hit on January 1, 2019. Supplies have been good in the US as many importers increased their inventories in anticipation of the tariffs. Catfish, Chinese-Prices are mostly steady as supplies seem to be adequate in the US. With Swai prices stabilizing lately it has taken the pressure off of Catfish prices increasing. Now that there is a new 10% tariff in place, we will see prices increase shortly. Prices will continue to climb well into 2019 as another 15% tariff increase is expected to hit on January 1 st as well. Striped Pangasius (also called Swai or Basa)-The Swai market has leveled off and we have seen prices move slightly lower, particularly on the larger sizes. 3/5 oz are tight and expected to stay tight for the foreseeable future. 5/7 oz fillets are expected to follow suit. Expect steady prices on larger sizes and stronger prices on smaller sizes as we move into 2019 and Lent season. Orange Roughy-Markets have are mostly steady with no major issues affecting future prices at this time. Sea Bass-Market remains strong and is expected to stay strong due to limited supplies. Sole/Flounder-Market is higher on smaller fillets and remain strong on larger fillets due to short supplies. Many sizes, particularly 8+ oz is nonexistent in the market. Ocean Perch, Chinese-Market is rated steady. Expect prices to increase into 2019 due to the tariffs being put in place on selected Chinese produced fish. Walleye-Walleye prices are steady. While supplies are snug, high prices are keeping supply and demand in balance. Expect a steady market for the next several month. Grouper-Market is strong on all sizes and supplies are tight. Expect prices to remain firm and supplies tight into 2019.
Salmon-Prices are steady to stronger on Chum Salmon. Supplies are hard to come by on sizes of Chum portions as supplies remain tight as landings have been low on new season production. Chum Salmon did escape having any tariff increases added to the price but with inventories being short expect continued price increases into 2019. Norwegian and Chilean product also remains strong and supplies are somewhat short as well. Tuna, Yellowfin-Tuna prices are moving higher due to limited supplies and strong demand for poke. Expect prices to increase another 10% or so as we head into 2019. Mahi Mahi-Prices have continued to drift lower. Supplies have been adequate in the US. Expect mostly steady prices into the first part of 2019. Swordfish-Market is steady yet supplies have been limited recently. Expect prices to hold steady or move higher later this year, depending on demand. Shrimp, Domestic Shell on-prices remain steady on all sizes both Brown and White, with smaller sizes being in tightest supply. Looks like White Gulf Shrimp inventories overall is tightening and prices will most likely move higher before the holidays. Overall expect prices to remain somewhat in check due to Shrimp supply globally running near record highs. Shrimp, Black Tiger Shell on-market has stabilized on all sizes. Prices have moved lower due to an increase in supplies and slower demand due to attractive prices on White shell on shrimp. Saying that there is still a substantial premium for Tigers versus White Shell On Shrimp. Expect prices to remain steady into 2019. Shrimp, White Shell on-markets have climbed considerably since August due to strong demand from Retail for the holidays. It does look like now prices have topped out as many prices just in the last week or so have drifted back lower. Expect prices to hold mostly steady thru the holidays. While supplies are adequate, Shrimp is one of the few values in Seafood so demand should be strong this year. Peeled and Deveined and Cooked Shrimp- Markets are rated as steady to slightly higher on most sizes. This is due to strong demand for shell on shrimp going to US retail for holiday promos. Prices are expected to hold about steady into early 2019 unless there is some unforeseen issue that could disrupt supplies. Scallops-Sea Scallop prices remained strong on larger sizes of dry Scallops due to limited supplies and good demand. Processed Scallop prices are mostly steady, although some of the larger sizes may increase on the strength of large Dry Scallops. Expect prices on all Scallops to increase slightly into early 2019 due to limited supplies and good demand.
Frog Legs- Product has now become available into the US mainly due to product coming in from Vietnam. Chinese product remains hard to find and prices are substantially higher than the Vietnamese product. This is even before the tariff increases. If we see the tariff s kick in fully next year, Chinese Frog Legs will have to increase over $1.00 per pound to cover the tariff. Supplies are expected to remain tight and prices strong well into 2019. Crawfish-Supplies remain tight in the US on all Crawfish items with whole Crawfish and larger sized tail meat being the strongest. Expect prices to remain strong and supplies limited as tariffs will now be kicking in. If the tariff level ends up going to 25%, we will see prices on tail meat jump over $2.00 per pound very shortly. Squid and Octopus-Market on Squid has stabilized due to better production and slower US demand. Octopus prices are increasing as supplies are tight on all sizes but particularly on the smaller sizes. Snow Crab-Prices on all Canadian Snow Crab have leveled off some from earlier this summer. We have actually seen prices move lower on 5/8 clusters due to good supplies and lackluster demand. 8 up and larger clusters still remain tight and prices will continue to move higher. Expect even 5/8 cluster prices to move up after the first of the year due to dwindling supplies before season opens in April 2019. King Crab-Market remains very strong on all sizes with supplies remaining short of demand. This is expected to be the case on King Crab thru the holiday season and well into 2019. Supplies are tight due to reduced quotas and demand is strong globally. Expect prices to remain strong and supplies hard to find for the next several months. Canadian Lobster Tails-Prices for Canadian Tails are strong and supplies are hard to source on the small to middle sizes. Expect tails to remain strong well into 2019 due to strong overseas demand as well as tight supplies due to limited lobster tail production. Lobster Meat prices have remained soft mainly due to demand being slow for product in light of high prices needed due to strong whole lobster prices. No suppliers are producing meat, which in turn continues to make Tails that much harder to find. Warm Water Lobster Tails-Markets are stronger on all sizes. Lack of availability on the smaller Canadian Tails as well as fishing areas remaining slow on production will continue to keep product extremely tight. Expect prices to continue strong well into 2019 Clams, Frozen-Market has been short of product and new supply prices have increased. Mussels, Frozen-Market is stronger due to some of the stronger prices we have seen on other shellfish items. New Zealand Green ½ Shell Mussels are hard to find and prices are very strong.
Imitation Crab Meat-Market is higher due to higher raw material cost. Also adding to the increase will be the tariff situation. We will have to see if Chinese companies continue to ship product to the US given the tariff situation.