Global Outlook October 22, 214 M. Marc Stocker DEC-Development Prospects Group mstocker1@worldbank.org 1
About Growth Forecasts Public release of growth forecasts in the Global Economic Prospects in June and January Working assumptions on outlook in April and October 2
Global Recovery: Weak and Slow World economy: another disappointing year Global growth forecasts: revised further down Future: switching engines; improvements but some downside risks High income countries: divergence Diverging growth trends and monetary policies Low interest rates; weak trade flows; softening commodity prices Developing countries: transition to a new environment Post-crisis growth slowdown widespread Cyclical and structural challenges abound 3
What is the global outlook? Slowly improving but less rapidly than previously expected 4
27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Global Recovery: Still Weak and Slow 1 GDP growth (percent) World High income countries Developing countries 8 6 4 2-2 -4 Source: World Bank. Note: Dotted line and shaded area = preliminary forecasts (September 3) reflecting working assumptions. 5
Disappointing Growth in 214; Pick-up Later (Working Assumption) Current Forecast (GDP growth, percent) Change (from GEP June 214) 213 214 215-16 214 World 2.4 2.6 3.2 -.2 High-income countries 1.4 1.8 2.3 -.1 Developing countries 4.8 4.4 5.2 -.4 East Asia and Pacific 7.2 6.9 6.8 -.2 Latin America and Caribbean 2.5 1.1 2.6 -.8 Europe and Central Asia 3.7 2.1 3.6 -.3 South Asia 4.8 5.4 6.2.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.6 4.6 5.2 -.1 Middle East and North Africa -.4 1.7 2.8 -.2 Source: World Bank. Note: Preliminary forecasts (September 3) reflecting working assumptions. 6
Risks On The Downside Excessive risk taking in financial markets Continued low growth / inflation in the Euro Area Rising geopolitical tensions / health (Ebola) concerns Disorderly slowdown in China Secular stagnation 7
Are High-Income Countries Healing? Slowly with diverging trends 8
4 High-Income Countries: Diverging Growth Dynamics GDP growth (percent) 213 214 215-16 23-8 3 2 1-1 US UK Euro Area Japan Source: World Bank. Note: Preliminary forecasts (September 3) reflecting working assumptions. 9
199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 Jan-5 Sep-5 May-6 Jan-7 Sep-7 May-8 Jan-9 Sep-9 May-1 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 12 1 US: Labor Market Slack Closing, Euro Area: Inflation Worryingly Low US: Unemployment and Participation (percent of labor force) 68 67 5 4 Euro Area: Inflation and Credit Growth (y-o-y percent) 2 Inflation Credit to private sector 16 8 66 3 12 6 65 2 8 4 64 1 4 2 Civilian unemployment rate Participation rate - RHS 63 62-1 -4 Source: World Bank, BLS, Haver Analytics, ECB. Note: Euro Area Inflation = y-o-y increase in headline inflation (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices); Credit to Private Sector = loans to households and non-financial corporations. 1
3.6 3.2 Declining Inflation Expectations: A Growing Concern In The Euro Area Euro Area Inflation Expectations (percent) 1Y Ahead Inflation Expectations 4Y Ahead Inflation Expectations ECB Inflation Target 2.8 2.4 2. 1.6 1.2.8.4 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Source: World Bank, Bloomberg. Note: 1Y and 4Y inflation expectations derived from 5y-5y, 2y-2y swap rates. 11
3.5 3. 2.5 Diverging Monetary Policy Paths With Rates Staying Low for Longer Dashed line: March 31, 214 Solid line: current Policy Rate Expectations (in percent) United States 2. 1.5 1..5 Euro Area. -.5 214 215 216 217 218 Source: World Bank, Bloomberg Note: Police rate expectations derived from overnight indexed swaps: Euro Overnight Index Average for ECB; Federal Fund Rate for the United States. 12
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Fed / ECB Divergence Driving USD Higher Percent 1..8.6.4.2. -.2 US / Euro: 2Y Interest Rate Spread and Bilateral Exchange Rate 2Y swap rate: US / Euro spread Euro / USD Euro / USD - RHS.8.78.76.74.72.7 -.4.68 Source: World Bank, Haver Analytics. Note: 2Y swap rate spread: difference between US and Euro Area two years interest rate swaps; Euro/USD: bilateral exchange rate. 13
Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 3. Markets Also Reconsidering US Inflation Outlook US Inflation Expectations (percent) 2.8 1Y Ahead Inflation Expectations - US Inflation Target 2.6 2.4 2.2 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 Source: World Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. Note: 1Y Breakeven Inflation rate derived from 1 Y Inflation-Indexed US Treasury 14
US Long-Term Interest Rates: Below 3% Until 217? 4.5 4. US 1 Year Treasury Yields (percent) January 2, 214 3.5 3. 2.5 October 1, 214 2. 1.5 1. 213 214 215 216 Source: World Bank, Bloomberg. Note: Based 1 US Treasury forward rate expectations 15
Equity Markets Concerned About Global Growth Prospects 16 15 Developed countries Equity Market Indices (Daily, Jan. 21=1, national currency) Emerging markets 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 21 211 212 213 214 Source: World Bank, Haver Analytics Note: Based on FTSE Developed and Emerging Market equity indices, weighted by market-capitalization. 16
What about Developing Countries? Renewed Volatility But No Tantrum 17
Hungary Currency Adjustments: Still Modest In Trade-Weighted Terms Russia Bulgaria Romania Brazil Turkey S. Africa Colombia Indonesia Mexico India Peru Philippines Malaysia Thailand China Developing-country currencies against USD and in trade weighted terms (Percent) 5 Against USD - from May to Sept 214 Against USD - from May to Sept 213 Trade Weighted - from May to Sept 214-5 -1-15 Source: World Bank, Haver Analytics 18
Portfolio Flows To Developing Countries Slowing Down Foreign portfolio inflows to developing-country bond and equity ($ million, 6-week moving average) 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, -8, 211 212 213 214 Source: World Bank, EPFR 19
Bond Spreads and Yields Still Lower than Early 214 EMBI bond spreads across large emerging markets (Basis points) 5 Brazil Indonesia Turkey South Africa 4 3 2 1 21 211 212 213 214 Source: World Bank, Haver Analytics. 2
Turkey Ukraine South Africa India Brazil Indonesia Mexico Egypt Hungary China Russia Nigeria 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 Renewed Volatility: Renewed Focus on Fundamentals 213H1 Current Account Balance (percent of GDP) 214H1 Source: World Bank, Haver Analytics 21
What about Developing Countries? Commodity Markets and China s Slowdown 22
27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Commodity Prices: Expected to Soften Commodity Price Indices ($US nominal, 21 = 1) Growth Rate of Prices (percent) 18 16 Energy Metals Agriculture 25 2 199-23-8 211-13 214-18 14 15 12 1 1 5 8 6-5 4-1 Energy Agriculture Metals Source: World Bank Note: Energy consists of oil, natural gas and coal. Agriculture consists of grains, edible oils, oil seeds, and tropical commodities. Metals include the six base metals (aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc) and iron ore 23
Declining Commodity Prices: Significant Adverse Impact on Some Regions Changes in Trade Balance from 212 to 214 (percentage point of GDP) SAS ECA EAP High-Income Countries SSA LAC -.5 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1..1.2.3.4 Source: World Bank. Note: Estimated impact on trade balance (in percentage point of GDP) of changes in commodity prices from 212 to 214. Based on country export and import shares of 4 individual commodities. 24
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Q1-213 Q2-213 Q3-213 Q4-213 Q1-214 Q2-214 1 8 6 4 China Slowdown Cushioned by Targeted Stimulus Measures Industrial Production and House Prices (y-o-y change, percent) 26 22 18 Real Estate and Infrastructure Investment (y-o-y change, percent) Real estate Infrastructure 2 Industrial production Real house prices 14-2 1 Source: World Bank, Haver Analytics. 25
What about Developing Countries? Transition to a New Environment 26
Taking A Step Back: Widespread Growth Slowdown GDP growth (percent) 1 23-8 21-13 214-15 199-8 8 6 4 2 DEV EAP LAC ECA SAS SSA MNA Source: World Bank. Note: Preliminary forecasts (September 3) reflecting working assumptions. 27
Cyclical Cooling-off Developing Countries Output Gap (percent deviation from potential, quarterly) 2-2 -4 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Source: World Bank. Note: Output Gap: percent deviation of actual GDP from potential. Potential GDP is estimated using the Hodrick-Prescott filter (a smoothing coefficient, Lambda = 16). Alternative estimation methods, such the Band Pass Filter and production function approach with spliced series, produce comparable results. 28
But Structural Factors also at Play 5 Total Factor Productivity Growth (percent) 23-8 21-13 214-16 199-8 4 3 2 1-1 DEV EAP LAC ECA SAS SSA MNA Source: World Bank Note: Total factor productivity growth estimates are based on a production function approach. 29
25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Global Trade: Weak Post-Crisis Trend 15 14 Global Trade Levels (Index, 28Q1 = 1) World trade Trend 5-8 Trend 11-14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis -World Trade Monitor. Note: Blue dotted line: Trend observed over the period 25Q1-28Q1; Red dotted line: Trend observed since 211Q1. 3
Outlook: Mixed Prospects in Emerging Markets 12 GDP Growth (percent) 213 214 215-16 23-8 1 8 6 4 2 China Brazil Russia South Africa India Source: World Bank. Note: Preliminary forecasts (September 3) reflecting working assumptions. 31
What about the Risks? Still on the Downside 32
Risks on The Downside Excessive risk taking in financial markets Continued low growth / inflation in the Euro Area Rising geopolitical tensions / health (Ebola) concerns Disorderly slowdown in China Secular stagnation 33
Exposure to Risk Vary Across Developing Countries Exposure Financial market volatility: deficit countries relying on portfolio flows Euro Area stagnation: Eastern Europe, but slower trade worldwide and risk of financial contagion China slowdown: Asia and non-oil commodity exporters Geopolitical risks: mostly the affected regions, oil and gas importers if supplies severely disrupted Country groups Most at risks: non-oil commodity exporters with large financing needs and exposure to Europe Lower risks: commodity importing Asian and Central American Countries trading with US 34
Belarus Turkey Uruguay Monetary Policy: Limited Room for Most Countries Zambia Russia Kenya Ghana Chile South Africa Mexico Albania Brazil Serbia Dominican Rep Sri Lanka Romania Pakistan Israel China Poland Uganda Georgia Vietnam Hungary Azerbaijan 25 2 Inflation and Inflation Targets (y-o-y change, percent) Target band August 214 Central target 15 1 5 Source: World Bank, National Central Banks, centralbanking.com Note: Targets include both formal inflation targets and indicative, nonbinding guidance compiled by centralbanking.com. 35
Fiscal Policy: Depleted Buffers after the Crisis Overall Fiscal Balance (percent of GDP) General Government Debt (percent of GDP) 2-7 212-13 5 2 213 213 proj. in 21 4-1 3-2 2 1-3 Emerging Markets Frontier Markets Emerging Markets Source: World Bank, IMF. Note: Overall fiscal balance = general government balance. General government debt projections from October 21 IMF World Economic Outlook. Frontier Markets 36
Structural Reforms: Developing Countries (G2) Infrastructure investment Meeting investment needs in energy, transport (especially roads, ports), logistics Strengthening efficiency and/or coordination of investment; allow greater foreign and private sector participation Competition/Business environment Strengthening energy, telecom, competition regulation, legislation, and policies Enhancing corporate governance ; improving contract enforcement ; removing factor market distortions Employment Reducing informality; managing urbanization and regional mobility; increasing labor force participation Trade and Others Encouraging supply chain integration; easing non-tariff and administrative costs Improving revenue mobilization and public service delivery; undertaking financial reforms 37
The Big Picture 214: a disappointing year 215-16: moderate pick-up in growth Downside risks still dominate Macroeconomic and financial policies: adjust depending on the cycle and available space Structural policies: urgent need for reforms everywhere 38
Global Economy: Update October 22, 214 M. Marc Stocker DEC-Development Prospects Group mstocker1@worldbank.org 39
Volatility : At a Turning Point? 9 8 Stock Market Volatility Index VIX index Average Minimum 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 199 1994 1998 22 26 21 214 Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange Note: VIX = Volatility Index measures market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 5 stock index option prices 4
Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Geopolitical Risks: Downplayed So Far Global Equity Prices, Oil Prices and Geopolitical Risks Index (213 =1) 13 125 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 85 8 Global Stockmarket Index Oil Prices Geopolitical Risk Index - RHS 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 Source: World Bank, Haver Analytics, Google Trends. Notes: Geopolitical Risk Index: Weekly searches on Google for: Syria, Iraq, Gaza, ISIS, Ukraine, Russia, Geopolitical and Ebola; Oil prices are Brent crude prices in USD. All indexed to 1 in January 213 41
Ebola Outbreak: Impact Under Various Scenarios 7.5 7. Estimated Impact of the Ebola Outbreak on GDP Growth in West Africa (percent) Baseline Low Ebola High Ebola 6.5 6. 5.5 Loss of.5% growth 5. 4.5 4. Loss of 2.% growth 213 214 215 Source: World Bank. 42
Euro Area Stagnation and Debt Overhang: A Vicious Circle Nominal GDP, private and public debt (Cumulative Change, Percentage Point) 9 8 7 2-8 28-14 6 5 4 3 2 1 Nominal GDP Nominal Debt - Private Non-Financial Nominal Debt - Governnment Source: World Bank, ECB Note: Private Non-Financial Debt is the sum of loans of households and non-profit institutions serving households and debt (loans, debt securities and pension fund reserves) of non-financial corporations 43
China s Debt and Growth: Soft Landing? 3 25 Stock of Debt (percent of GDP) Non-Government Debt Government Debt Debt and Growth percent of GDP percent 3 16 Debt (LHS) GDP Growth (RHS) 25 14 2 15 1 2 15 1 12 1 5 5 8 26 28 21 212 214 26 28 21 212 214 Source: World Bank, BIS, Standard Chartered. Note: Government debt includes general government debt and debt associated with local government financing vehicles. 214 refers to the latest available data. 44 6
Negative Surprises in Recent Years: History Repeats? 4 3 World GDP Growth Forecasts (percent) June (previous year) January June January (next year)* Latest forecast 2 1 212 213 214 Source: Consensus Economics. Note: Consensus Economics forecasts are aggregated based on constant 21 USD GDP weights for G2 countries. 45
Secular Stagnation: Low Growth Getting Entrenched? Potential GDP Growth (percent) GDP and Investment (Index = 1 in 27) 7 6 5 4 3 2 Developing - Production Function Developing - Hodrick-Prescott High Income - Production Function High Income - Hodrick-Prescott 175 165 155 145 135 125 115 15 GDP - developing Investment - developing GDP - high Income Investment - high Income 1 95 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 85 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Source: World Bank. 46
Secular Stagnation: Low Interest Rates 6 4 Policy interest rate Fed inflation objective U.S. Policy Interest Rates (percent) Inflation Real interest rate 1 8 6 2 4 2-2 199s 2-8 29-13 Latest FOMC forecast by end 216-2 Source: World Bank, Bloomberg, CME Group, US Federal Open Market Committee. Note: FOMC forecast = Average of individual members forecasts. 47
Secular Stagnation: Weak Labor Market 6 4 Change in Employment (28-213) (percent change and percentage contribution) Unemployment Labor Force Participation Working Age Population Change In Employment 28-13 2-2 -4-6 USA High-Income Japan Euro Area Countries Source: World Bank, ILO. Note: Change in employment from 28 to 213 and percentage point contributions from changes in working age population, labor force participation and unemployment rates. Increases in the working age population and participation rate contribute positively to changes in employment. Increases in unemployment rates contribute negatively to changes in employment. 48
Euro Area Outlook: More Negative News? 8 6 Nominal GDP, private and public debt (index = 1 in 28Q1) Max Min Forecast 215 - adjusted for MFE since 212 Latest 215 Forecast 4 2-2 -4 Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain United States Japan United Kingdom Source: World Bank. 49