Introduction Over the last 4 years (between 2012 to 2015 inclusive) the UK has imported 283,602,000,000 ( 284 billion ) more from the rest of the EU than the UK and NI have exported to the EU resulting in an average trade deficit with the EU Member States of 71 billion p.a. and increasing at an average rate of 10.71% per annum. (See slides 5 to 33). There is much talk about the Single Market and implied threats to the effect that the UK and N.I. will be punished for having the temerity to democratically express its wishes to leave. If we assume that EU Member States will act in their best interests, will the EU Member states vote to impose duties and restrictions on the import of UK & NI goods and invite retaliatory sanctions? Will sensible people support the currently expressed hard line attitudes of dignitaries such as the Luxembourg President of the EU Commission Mr Juncker, Mr Verhofstadt, a former prime minister of Belgium representing the European parliament on Brexit, EU Council President Mr Tusk from Poland and Mr Holland, the French President?
Introduction The French economist, Frederic Passy, (in the 1840s) concluded that with freedom of trade would come a world of peace and international tranquillity. "Some day all barriers will fall; some day mankind, constantly united by continuous transactions, will form just one workshop, one market, and one family.... And this is... the grandeur, the truth, the nobility, I might almost say the holiness of the free-trade doctrine; by the prosaic but effective pressure of [material] interest it tends to make justice and harmony prevail in the world."
The Message Is. Free Trade brings peace. The UK & NI tourist, leisure and hospitality sectors will show significant growth. Demand for products manufactured in the UK & NI will increase. New jobs will be created as the manufacturing sector grows to meet demand. Innovation and new product development in the UK & NI are being stimulated by measures such as R&D Tax Reliefs and Patent Box Reliefs. The relatively benign corporate taxation scheme in the UK & NI will attract inward investment. There is nothing to fear from Brexit. Let us work with our European Friends and Friends around the World
Source Please see the following presentation of data Source HMRC https://www.uktradeinfo.com/pages/searchresults.aspx?k=webtbls_deccum_2015&cs=this%20list&u=https%3a%2f%2fwww.uktradeinfo.com%2fstatistics%2fdo cuments
Summary of Trade with EU Countries Summary of Trade with EU Countries: 2010 to 2015 General Trade millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Average Growth Rate Exports 141,931 158,293 149,986 150,423 146,666 133,365 146777.33 Imports 184,726 201,599 206,914 217,101 221,360 218,667 208394.50 Balance -42,795-43,306-56,928-66,678-74,694-85,302-61617.17 Source: HMRC, Overseas Trade Statistics Note: Figures do not include MTIC or late response estimates 1 Figures are provisional and subject to update
Summary of Trade with EU Countries: 2010-2015 ( Millions) 250,000 200,000 184,726 201,599 206,914 217,101 221,360 218,667 150,000 141,931 158,293 149,986 150,423 146,666 133,365 100,000 50,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Exports Imports
Summary of Balance with EU Countries: 2010-2015 ( Millions) 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-10,000-20,000-30,000-40,000-50,000-42,795-43,306-60,000-56,928-70,000-66,678-80,000-74,694-90,000 Balance -85,302
Summary of Trade with EU Countries: Annual Average Growth Rate 2008-2015 ( Millions) 12.00 10.71 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 2.54 0.00-0.70-2.00 Exports Imports Balance
Summary of Trade with Non-EU Countries Summary of Trade with Non-EU Countries 1 : 2010 to 2015 General Trade millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Average Growth Rate Exports 129,875 160,400 153,168 199,812 163,862 171,544 163110.17 Imports 195,855 220,099 235,007 204,192 199,250 192,258 207776.83 Balance -65,980-59,698-81,839-4,380-35,388-20,714 Source: HMRC, Overseas Trade Statistics 1 Figures are provisional and subject to update
Summary of Trade with Non-EU Countries: 2010-2015 ( Millions) 250,000 235,007 220,099 200,000 195,855 204,192 199,812 199,250 192,258 150,000 160,400 153,168 163,862 171,544 129,875 100,000 50,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Exports Imports
Summary of Balance with Non-EU Countries: 2010-2015 ( Millions) 0-10,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-4,380-20,000-20,714-30,000-40,000-35,388-50,000-60,000-59,698-70,000-65,980-80,000-81,839-90,000 Balance
Summary of Trade with Non-EU Countries: Annual Average Growth Rate 2008-2015 ( Millions) 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Exports Imports
Whole World Exports - Top 20 Trading Partners Whole World Exports - Top 20 Trading Partners: 1 2008 to 2015 General Trade millions 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average Annual Growth Rate United States 35,026 33,632 37,479 39,054 40,489 39,928 38,887 45,276 3.3 Germany 28,535 24,882 28,589 33,240 32,843 30,673 31,578 30,352 0.8 Switzerland 7,371 5,056 11,041 24,021 10,187 45,435 21,313 22,244 14.8 China 4,878 5,129 7,306 8,773 9,894 11,585 15,934 18,071 17.8 France 18,764 18,092 20,282 23,274 22,123 22,392 19,735 17,830-0.6 Netherlands 19371 17,907 21,073 22,823 23,944 23,876 22,311 17,338-1.4 Irish Republic 18,587 15,485 16,376 17,333 16,895 18,140 17,805 16,665-1.4 Belgium 13,100 10,534 12,948 15,442 13,995 13,607 12,622 11,576-1.5 Spain 10,085 9,090 9,710 9,531 8,275 8,477 8,813 8,855-1.6 Italy 9317 8331 8806 9,943 7950 8,404 8,753 8,403-1.3 UAE 4,844 4,015 4,179 5,196 5,202 9,952 6,400 6,836 4.4 Hong Kong 4,002 3,513 4,462 5,693 5,748 9,024 7,303 6,628 6.5 Saudi Arabia 2,278 2,648 3,077 3,075 3,259 4,220 4,173 5,429 11.5 South Korea 2,407 2,026 2,205 2,516 4,572 4,821 4,198 4,719 8.8 Sweden 5097 4,107 5,408 6,115 5,650 5,576 5,458 4,386-1.9 Japan 3,820 3,372 4,311 4,464 4,579 4,500 4,329 4,310 1.5 Singapore 2,884 2,847 3,313 3,701 4,356 4,262 3,793 3,927 3.9 India 4,187 2,943 4,018 5,489 4,567 5,118 3,894 3,911-0.8 Canada 3,746 3,956 4,869 5,559 4,852 4,502 4,095 3,842 0.3 Australia 4,272 2,942 3,329 4,313 4,426 4,051 3,677 3,783-1.5 Source: HMRC, Overseas Trade Statistics Note: Figures for EU countries do not include MTIC or late response estimates 1 Figures are provisional and subbject to update. Ranking based on value of trade in 2015
Whole World Exports - Top 20 Trading Partners: 2013-2015 ( Millions) 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2013 2014 2015
Whole World Exports - Top 20 Trading Partners: Average Annual Growth Rate ( Millions) 20.0 17.8 United States Germany 15.0 14.8 Switzerland China France 11.5 Netherlands Irish Republic 10.0 8.8 Belgium Spain Italy 6.5 UAE Hong Kong 5.0 3.3 4.4 3.9 Saudi Arabia South Korea 0.0 0.8-0.6-1.4-1.4-1.5-1.6-1.3-1.9 1.5-0.8 0.3-1.5 Sweden Japan Singapore India Canada Australia -5.0
Whole World Imports - Top 20 Trading Partners Whole World Imports - Top 20 Trading Partners: 1 2008 to 2015 General Trade millions 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average Annual Growth Rate Germany 44,504 39,863 46,278 50,449 53,092 55,940 59,898 60,679 4.0 China 21,969 22,875 28,230 30,158 30,024 31,579 33,891 36,103 6.4 United States 31,455 31,042 34,923 35,944 36,384 32,060 32,846 35,291 1.4 Netherlands 25,328 21,944 25,717 28,413 31,227 34,252 32,372 30,890 2.5 France 23191 20,502 21,781 23,294 23,452 24,978 25,054 23,999 0.4 Belgium 16,107 14,896 17,026 19,014 18,236 20,124 20,623 20,470 3.0 Italy 14,062 12,323 14,003 14,207 14,403 15,331 16,709 15,764 1.4 Spain 10,295 9,277 10,086 11,353 11,305 12,541 13,272 13,964 3.9 Norway 20,646 15,085 19,459 25,524 24,080 19,885 17,204 13,035-5.6 Irish Republic 12,020 12,265 12,763 12,996 12,760 11,835 11,757 12,509 0.5 Canada 8,455 8,318 10,796 13,306 13,235 10,590 9,888 9,523 1.5 Switzerland 7,994 12,455 10,636 7,952 19,172 8,081 8,927 8,895 1.3 Poland 4,241 4,604 6,067 7,074 7,399 7,841 7,686 8,094 8.4 Turkey 4,683 4,317 5,118 5,562 6,064 5,951 6,489 7,443 6.0 Japan 9,007 7,250 8,606 10,184 8,867 7,397 6,926 7,028-3.1 Sweden 6,761 5,665 6,777 7,696 9,078 7,432 7,590 6,815 0.1 Hong Kong 8,154 9,895 8,817 7,327 7,374 7,012 6,775 6,573-2.7 India 4,267 4,327 5,447 5,869 6,011 6,186 6,567 6,063 4.5 Czech Republic 3,529 3,292 3,963 4,213 4,414 4,582 4,676 4,828 4.0 South Korea 3,326 2,816 2,557 2,537 3,135 3,265 3,947 4,364 3.5 Source: HMRC, Overseas Trade Statistics Note: Figures for EU countries do not include MTIC or late response estimates 1 Figures are provisional and subject to update. Ranking based on value of trade in 2006. 2015
Whole World Imports - Top 20 Trading Partners: 2013-2015 ( Millions) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2013 2014 2015
Whole World Imports - Top 20 Trading Partners 2008-2015: Average Annual Growth Rate ( Millions) 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 6.4 1.4 2.5 0.4 3.0 1.4 3.9 0.5 1.5 1.3 8.4 6.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 Germany China United States Netherlands France Belgium Italy Spain Norway Irish Republic Canada Switzerland Poland -2.0 Turkey -4.0-3.1-2.7 Japan Sweden Hong Kong -6.0-5.6 India Czech Republic South Korea -8.0
Trade with EU Countries - Exports Trade with EU Countries - Exports 1 : 2008 to 2015 General Trade: ranking based on value of trade in 2015 millions 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average Annual Growth Rate Germany 28,535 24,882 28,589 33,240 32,843 30,673 31,578 30,352 0.8 France 18,764 18,092 20,282 23,274 22,123 22,392 19,735 17,830-0.6 Netherlands 19,371 17,907 21,073 22,823 23,944 23,876 22,311 17,338-1.4 Irish Republic 18,587 15,485 16,376 17,333 16,895 18,140 17,805 16,665-1.4 Belgium 13,100 10,534 12,948 15,442 13,995 13,607 12,622 11,576-1.5 Spain 10,085 9,090 9,710 9,531 8,275 8,477 8,813 8,855-1.6 Italy 9,317 8,331 8,806 9,943 7,950 8,404 8,753 8,403-1.3 Sweden 5,097 4,107 5,408 6,115 5,650 5,576 5,458 4,386-1.9 Poland 2,932 2,703 3,676 4,190 3,393 3,634 3,827 3,600 2.6 Denmark 2,563 2,428 2,682 2,952 2,754 2,922 2,791 2,301-1.3 Czech Republic 1,508 1,396 1,766 1,866 1,789 1,881 2,042 1,936 3.2 Austria 1,435 1,250 1,429 1,647 1,514 1,607 1,620 1,599 1.4 Finland 1,863 1,333 1,454 1,614 1,503 1,507 1,600 1,343-4.0 Hungary 985 827 1,052 1,157 1,071 1,211 1,209 1,276 3.3 Portugal 1,601 1,500 1,787 1,713 1,343 1,327 1,331 1,249-3.1 Romania 737 666 760 934 940 933 935 983 3.7 Greece 1,615 1,574 1,314 1,129 850 917 985 877-7.3 Slovakia 446 369 452 534 514 464 461 440-0.2 Malta 471 389 386 438 394 434 408 376-2.8 Cyprus 525 599 545 675 471 464 440 371-4.2 Bulgaria 248 195 244 323 303 390 442 346 4.3 Lithuania 277 167 223 265 368 323 299 270-0.3 Luxembourg 199 190 240 268 219 235 214 220 1.3 Estonia 214 147 186 273 280 321 269 219 0.3 Latvia 168 108 164 231 249 369 334 215 3.1 Slovenia 219 174 213 236 211 202 242 202-1.0 Croatia 206 206 166 147 145 137 142 137-5.0 Total EU 141,068 124,649 141,931 158,293 149,986 150,423 146,666 133,365-0.7 Note: Figures do not include late response estimates 1 Figures are provisional and subject to update Source: HMRC, Overseas Trade Statistics
Trade with EU Countries - Exports: 2013-2015 ( Millions) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2013 2014 2015
Trade with EU Countries - Exports-EU Totals: 2013-2015 ( Millions) 155,000 150,000 150,423 146,666 145,000 140,000 135,000 133,365 130,000 125,000 120,000 2013 2014 2015
Trade with EU Countries - Export - Average Annual Growth Rate: 2008-2015 ( Millions) 6.0 Germany France 4.0 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.3 3.7 4.3 3.1 Netherlands Irish Republic Belgium Spain 0.0 0.8-0.6-1.4-1.4-1.5-1.6-1.3-1.9 1.4-0.2-0.3 1.3 0.3-1.0 Italy Sweden Poland Denmark -2.0-4.0-1.3-4.0-3.1-2.8-4.2-5.0 Czech Republic Austria Finland Hungary Portugal Romania -6.0 Greece -7.3 Slovakia Malta -8.0
Trade with EU Countries - Imports Trade with EU Countries - Imports 1 : 2008 to 2015 General Trade: ranking based on value of trade in 2015 millions Average Annual 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Growth Rate Germany 44,504 39,863 46,278 50,449 53,092 55,940 59,898 60,679 4.0 Netherlands 25,328 21,944 25,717 28,413 31,227 34,252 32,372 30,890 2.5 France 23,191 20,502 21,781 23,294 23,452 24,978 25,054 23,999 0.4 Belgium 16,107 14,896 17,026 19,014 18,236 20,124 20,623 20,470 3.0 Italy 14,062 12,323 14,003 14,207 14,403 15,331 16,709 15,764 1.4 Spain 10,295 9,277 10,086 11,353 11,305 12,541 13,272 13,964 3.9 Irish Republic 12,020 12,265 12,763 12,996 12,760 11,835 11,757 12,509 0.5 Poland 4,241 4,604 6,067 7,074 7,399 7,841 7,686 8,094 8.4 Sweden 6,761 5,665 6,777 7,696 9,078 7,432 7,590 6,815 0.1 Czech Republic 3,529 3,292 3,963 4,213 4,414 4,582 4,676 4,828 4.0 Denmark 4,062 3,771 4,069 6,056 5,845 5,306 4,460 3,436-2.1 Austria 2,319 2,255 2,610 2,947 2,602 2,868 3,126 3,031 3.4 Hungary 2,492 2,510 3,232 3,081 2,615 2,597 2,431 2,518 0.1 Portugal 1,681 1,396 1,719 1,783 1,739 1,933 2,243 2,333 4.2 Finland 2,742 2,091 2,147 2,444 2,143 2,510 2,358 2,038-3.6 Slovakia 1,602 1,584 1,610 1,508 1,565 1,808 1,916 2,012 2.9 Romania 784 770 1,232 1,283 1,309 1,444 1,515 1,542 8.8 Lithuania 343 363 549 599 828 889 960 769 10.6 Greece 616 535 667 657 678 728 700 714 1.9 Luxembourg 812 605 935 900 655 362 444 485-6.2 Latvia 348 285 388 382 358 514 401 478 4.0 Bulgaria 212 180 227 286 292 368 352 364 7.0 Slovenia 310 247 353 358 333 320 313 324 0.6 Estonia 144 124 155 213 218 182 177 183 3.0 Malta 136 105 166 162 130 109 128 181 3.6 Cyprus 132 75 105 127 155 183 132 152 1.8 Croatia 85 107 101 104 83 124 67 95 1.4 Total EU 178,858 161,634 184,726 201,599 206,914 217,101 221,360 218,667 2.5 Note: Figures do not include MTIC or late response estimates 1 Figures are provisional and subject to update Source: HMRC, Overseas Trade Statistics
Trade with EU Countries - Imports: 2013-2015 ( Millions) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2013 2014 2015
Trade with EU Countries - Imports: EU Totals - 2013-2015 ( Millions) 222,000 221,360 221,000 220,000 219,000 218,667 218,000 217,000 217,101 216,000 215,000 214,000 2013 2014 2015
Trade with EU Countries - Imports: Average Annual Growth Rate 2008-2015 ( Millions) 12.0 10.6 Germany 10.0 8.0 8.4 8.8 7.0 Netherlands France Belgium Italy 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 2.5 0.4 3.0 1.4 3.9 0.5 0.1 4.0 3.4 0.1 4.2 2.9 1.9 4.0 0.6 3.0 3.6 1.8 1.4 Spain Irish Republic Poland Sweden Czech Republic Denmark Austria Hungary -2.0-4.0-2.1-3.6 Portugal Finland Slovakia Romania Lithuania -6.0-6.2 Greece Luxembourg -8.0
Top 10 Trading Partners - Non-EU Exports Top 10 Trading Partners - Non-EU Exports 1 2008 to 2015 General Trade: ranking based on value of trade in 2015 millions 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average Annual Growth Rate United States 35,026 33,632 37,479 39,054 40,489 39,928 38,887 45,276 3.3 Switzerland 7,371 5,056 11,041 24,021 10,187 45,435 21,313 22,244 14.8 China 4878 5129 7306 8,773 9894 11,585 15,934 18,071 17.8 UAE 4,844 4,015 4,179 5,196 5,202 9,952 6,400 6,836 4.4 Hong Kong 4,002 3,513 4,462 5,693 5,748 9,024 7,303 6,628 6.5 Saudi Arabia 2,278 2,648 3,077 3,075 3,259 4,220 4,173 5,429 11.5 South Korea 2407 2,026 2,205 2,516 4,572 4,821 4,198 4,719 8.8 Japan 3,820 3,372 4,311 4,464 4,579 4,500 4,329 4,310 1.5 Singapore 2,884 2,847 3,313 3,701 4,356 4,262 3,793 3,927 3.9 India 4,187 2,943 4,018 5,489 4,567 5,118 3,894 3,911-0.8 Source: HMRC, Overseas Trade Statistics 1 Figures are provisional and subject to update
Top 10 Trading Partners - Non-EU Exports: 2013-2015 ( Millions) 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 United States Switzerland China UAE Hong Kong Saudi Arabia South Korea Japan Singapore India 2013 2014 2015
Top 10 Trading Partners - Non-EU Exports: Average Annual Growth Rate- 2008-2015 ( Millions) 20.0 17.8 15.0 14.8 11.5 United States Switzerland 10.0 8.8 China UAE 6.5 Hong Kong Saudi Arabia 5.0 3.3 4.4 3.9 South Korea Japan Singapore 1.5 India 0.0-0.8-5.0
Top 10 Trading Partners - Non-EU Imports Top 10 Trading Partners - Non-EU Imports 1 2008 to 2015 General Trade: ranking based on value of trade in 2015 millions 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average Annual Growth Rate China 21,969 22,875 28,230 30,158 30,024 31,579 33,891 36,103 6.4 United States 31,455 31,042 34,923 35,944 36,384 32,060 32,846 35,291 1.4 Norway 20,646 15,085 19,459 25,524 24,080 19,885 17,204 13,035-5.6 Canada 8,455 8,318 10,796 13,306 13,235 10,590 9,888 9,523 1.5 Switzerland 7,994 12,455 10,636 7,952 19,172 8,081 8,927 8,895 1.3 Turkey 4,683 4,317 5,118 5,562 6,064 5,951 6,489 7,443 6.0 Japan 9,007 7,250 8,606 10,184 8,867 7,397 6,926 7,028-3.1 Hong Kong 8,154 9,895 8,817 7,327 7,374 7,012 6,775 6,573-2.7 India 4,267 4,327 5,447 5,869 6,011 6,186 6,567 6,063 4.5 South Korea 3,326 2,816 2,557 2,537 3,135 3,265 3,947 4,364 3.5 Source: HMRC, Overseas Trade Statistics 1 Figures are provisional and subject to update
Top 10 Trading Partners - Non-EU Imports: 2013-2015 ( Millions) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 China United States Norway Canada Switzerland Turkey Japan Hong Kong India South Korea 2013 2014 2015
Top 10 Trading Partners - Non-EU Imports: Average Annual Growth Rate 2008-2015 ( Millions) 8.0 6.0 6.4 6.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 China United States 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.3 Norway Canada 0.0 Switzerland Turkey Japan -2.0 Hong Kong -4.0-3.1-2.7 India South Korea -6.0-5.6-8.0