GDR= P 65 + P 15~64 + P 0~14

40 40 2007 2008 60 65 52

1,,, 2 2008 2004 GDR= P 65 + P 15~64 + P 0~14 P 15~64 1 1 2 53

GDR P 0~14 0~14 P 65 + 65 P 15~64 15~64 2004 1 2006 2 1 3 2006 1.3846 21 1.5 4 105±2 10 0 120 B 0 120 5 40 0 40 0~95 1 40 1 GDR = P 65 + + P 0~14 2 P 15~64 P 15~64 GDR P 65 + =P65 + Co C o P 0~14 =P 0~14 C c C c P 15~64 R L P 15 ~6 4 R L P 15~64 R L P F P S P T 3 O F O S O T P 15~64 =! P F +P S OS +P T OT O F O "R L F 1 1989~1990 1994 70 2008 71.4 54

1 2008~2048 2008 0.2345 0.1281 0.3627 2029 0.2107 0.2568 0.4675 2009 0.2274 0.1300 0.3575 2030 0.2079 0.2683 0.47616 2010 0.2202 0.1315 0.3518 2031 0.2050 0.2801 0.4851 2011 0.2154 0.1346 0.3499 2032 0.2013 0.2868 0.4881 2012 0.2123 0.1384 0.3506 2033 0.1988 0.3002 0.4990 2013 0.2095 0.1419 0.3514 2034 0.1961 0.3104 0.5065 2014 0.2098 0.1476 0.3574 2035 0.1941 0.3230 0.5171 2015 0.2094 0.1532 0.3626 2036 0.1922 0.3324 0.5246 2016 0.2010 0.1588 0.3688 2037 0.1905 0.3394 0.5299 2017 0.2120 0.1674 0.3794 2038 0.1893 0.3451 0.5343 2018 0.2145 0.1754 0.3899 2039 0.1884 0.3488 0.5371 2019 0.2162 0.1850 0.4011 2040 0.1876 0.3490 0.5366 2020 0.2187 0.1942 0.4129 2041 0.1874 0.3495 0.5369 2021 0.2201 0.2022 0.4223 2042 0.1871 0.3459 0.5330 2022 0.2212 0.2118 0.4331 2043 0.1874 0.3437 0.5311 2023 0.2206 0.2134 0.4340 2044 0.1880 0.3418 0.5297 2024 0.2204 0.2196 0.4400 2045 0.1885 0.3381 0.5266 2025 0.2189 0.2218 0.4407 2046 0.1893 0.3352 0.5245 2026 0.2160 0.2202 0.4362 2047 0.1905 0.3358 0.5263 2027 0.2142 0.2287 0.4429 2048 0.1912 0.3327 0.5238 2028 0.2131 0.2453 0.4584 1 20 2008 5 0.25 5~14 0.45 0.7 0.8 0~14 0.50 65 0.7 2 2008 2008 4% 96% 3 1990~2006 2006 42.6% 25.2% 32.2% 0.750% 0.054% 0.696% 4 2006 1 7.063 4.437 2006 1 2.802 2.647 1 1 2006 2008 55

1 5 3 1 2 2 2008~2048 2008 0.0455 0.0348 0.0803 2029 0.0363 0.0620 0.0983 2009 0.0439 0.0351 0.0790 2030 0.0356 0.0644 0.1000 2010 0.0422 0.0353 0.0775 2031 0.0350 0.0669 0.1018 2011 0.0410 0.0359 0.0770 2032 0.0341 0.0681 0.1023 2012 0.0402 0.0367 0.0769 2033 0.0335 0.0709 0.1045 2013 0.0395 0.0374 0.0769 2034 0.0329 0.0730 0.1059 2014 0.0393 0.0387 0.0780 2035 0.0324 0.0755 0.1079 2015 0.0390 0.0399 0.0789 2036 0.0319 0.0773 0.1093 2016 0.0389 0.0412 0.0801 2037 0.0315 0.0785 0.1100 2017 0.0390 0.0431 0.0822 2038 0.0311 0.0795 0.1106 2018 0.0393 0.0450 0.0842 2039 0.0308 0.0799 0.1107 2019 0.0393 0.0471 0.0865 2040 0.0305 0.0796 0.1101 2020 0.0396 0.0492 0.0888 2041 0.0304 0.0793 0.1096 2021 0.0396 0.0510 0.0906 2042 0.0302 0.0781 0.1082 2022 0.0396 0.0531 0.0927 2043 0.0301 0.0772 0.1072 2023 0.0393 0.0532 0.0925 2044 0.0300 0.0764 0.1064 2024 0.0390 0.0544 0.0935 2045 0.0299 0.0752 0.1051 2025 0.0386 0.0547 0.0932 2046 0.0299 0.0742 0.1041 2026 0.0378 0.0540 0.0918 2047 0.0300 0.0739 0.1039 2027 0.0373 0.0558 0.0931 2048 0.0299 0.0729 0.1028 2028 0.0369 0.0595 0.0964 1 2 1 2008 0.3627 10 3.6 2 2008 0.0803 10 0.8 1 2 56

1 1 2008 0.2345 2015 0.2094 2022 0.2212 2042 0.1871 2048 0.1912 2 2008 0.1281 2041 0.3495 2048 0.3327 3 2008 0.3627 2048 0.5238 2 1 2008 0.0455 2017 0.039 2022 0.0396 2048 0.0299 2 2008 0.0348 2048 0.7929 3 2008 0.0803 2014 0.078 2048 0.1028,, 2008 0.3627 2048 0.5238 40 0.1611 1 2008 0.0803 2048 0.1028 0.0225 40 2 1 2008 2006 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 40 2 40 57

40 1.5 1.8 4% 1% 2008 0.1281 2048 0.3327 2008 0.0348 2048 0.0729 1. 1994 1989~1990 2. 2007 1 3. 2008 4 4. 2008 7 5. 2004 11 6. 2008 2 7. 2004 5 8. 2008 2008 9. 2008 2008 10. 2007 2007 58

Chinese Journal of Population Science A bimonthly No. Feburary ABSTRACTS China s Future Demographic Dividend Digging New Source of Economic Growth Cai Fang 2 This paper starts with the retrospect of demographic dividend as a significant contributor to China s economic growth during the past 30 years. It intends to discuss how China will retain the sustainability of fast growth at the new development stage characterized by slow -down of increase of working age population gradual disappearance of surplus rural labor force and acceleration of population aging. The proposition of the paper is that while the first demographic dividend diminishes as a result of demographic transition the second type of demographic dividend can be created and obtained and the so-called demographic debt can be avoided if the following conditions can be created: 1 deepening education to enhance labor productivity 2 extending competitive advantage of Chinese industries to sustain economic growth 3 establishing fully funded pension scheme to dig new source of savings and 4 activating labor market institutions to expand stock of labor resource and human capital. Technological Progress Endogenous Population Growth and Structural Change Xu Zhaoyang Justin Yifu Lin 11 This paper studies the Industrial Revolution endogenous population growth and structure change in a unified theoretical framework. It shows that the Industrial Revolution changed the relative prices of necessities to unnecessities and thus determined the transition of population and industrial structure as well as the great jump of human being from "Malthus trap" to modern economic growth. The Impact of Structural Change and Diversity of China s Industry on Unemployment Huang Qian 22 This paper uses the 1997-2006 provincial industrial and employment data to examine the impact of industrial structure change and diversity on the employment. The findings indicate that the structure changes of the manufacturing sector raise unemployment rate but the structure changes of the services sector lower unemployment rate. The structure changes of the whole industry raise unemployment rate. Industrial diversity is negatively related to unemployment rate. The specialization of manufacture industry is positively related to unemployment rate while the specialization of construction and wholesale and retail industries are negatively related to unemployment rate. In addition the growth of economy the average education of labor force and the size of private sector are negatively related to unemployment rate. Labor Market Segmentation, Hukou and Urban-Rural Difference in Employment Qiao Mingrui Qian Xueya Yao Xianguo 32 Using the CHNS data and switching regression model, the paper tests whether Chinese labor market is segmented, and analyzes how hukou system influences urban-rural difference in employment. The results indicate that dual labor market exits in China at present, and hukou is one of the most important factors that prevent rural workers from being employed in primary labor market. In addition, urban hukou holders have big advantage over rural hukou holders not only in primary labor market but also in secondary labor market, and the differences in employment between the two groups of labor force are obvious. The Impact of Dependence Ratio on Household Savings Rate Zhong Shuiying Li Kui 42 By using dynamic provincial panel data with two-step system GMM method, this paper estimates and analyzes the effect of dependence ratio on savings rate on the basis of Life-cycle Hypothesis. It is found that the decline of dependence ratio of raising children is one of the important reasons for the enhancement in household savings rate. The dependence ratio of the elderly does not significantly affect savings rate. The increase of savings rate was mainly due to the rapid decline of the load of raising children. An Estimate of the Burdens Workers Will Shoulder in the Aging Future Zhou Weibing 52 This paper constructs an actuarial model to predict the theoretical dependency ratio and the real dependency ratio. The result shows that 111

though China s population aging will raise the old population dependency ratio, the Family Planning Policy and public s conceptual change about birth will help decrease children dependency ratio gradually; therefore, the total social dependency ratio will basically keep stable in the coming decades. The author argues that the aging trend will not heavily increase the burden of the staff and workers in the future, and it thus may not have a serious impact on the Pension Insurance System. How Computer Use Have Changed the Wage Structure of Young Workers: Evidence from Yunnan Province Gao Mengtao Yan Ming Bi Lanlan 59 This paper applies Yunnan youth survey data in 2008 to examine whether employees who use computers at work earn higher wage rates. Hierarchy models are estimated to control the unobserved heterogeneity that might be correlated with job -related computer use and earnings. The regression results show that employees who use computers at work earn 33 to 76 percent higher hourly wage and this wage premium is related to the unobserved heterogeneity. This might be a premium to the capacity of learning new skills more effectively and fervidly. The Entrepreneurial Motivation of Chinese University Graduates Gao Riguang Sun Jianmin Zhou Bei 68 This paper conducted exploratory factor analysis to probe the psychological construct of entrepreneurial motivation of university graduates in China. A four-factor model was built: self-actualization, pursuing honor and wealth, social support and family influence. Hierachical Cluster analysis was used to verify the four-factor model of entrepreneurial motivation. In this study, the construct and content of entrepreneurial motivation were also discussed, and the conclusion and implications were presented at the end. An Analysis on the Living Arrangement of the Elderly in Rural China Macro and Micro Observations Wang Yuesheng 76 Using both macro census data and micro village survey data, this paper examines the living arrangement of the elderly aged 65 and above in the countryside. The study shows that at present more than 90 percent of the elderly over 65 in rural areas have at least one survival son, and about 70 percent of the elderly have two or more survival sons. There is a high proportion of the elderly living with one married son and formed a lineal family. However, the elderly parents with more than one son tend to live separately with their sons, and they are more likely to be taken care by sons in rotation when they are unable to take care of themselves. Although their basic needs such as food and clothing are satisfied, the elderly people in rural areas lack of disposable economic resources are not comparable in living conditions with younger generations, and their medical expenditure is much lower. Generally speaking, the livelihood state of the elderly has not improved simultaneously with that of the young people. Factors Determining Farmers Participation in and Level of Rural Social Pension: Village-level Evidence from Rural Shanghai Zhao Deyu Liang Hong 88 Based on a household survey covering all villages of rural Shanghai, the paper describes factors influencing the proportion and the level of farmers participation in rural social pension insurance. It concludes that factors such as geography convenience, population size, economic development level and governance pattern of the collective economy significantly influence farmers incentive of participating in rural social pension insurance, and change its level as well. Empirical Study on Migrant Workers Industrial Injury and Desire for Industrial Injury Insurance Evidence from Seven Cities Xu Daowen 97 Based the data collected in 7 Chinese cities, this paper analyses the situation of industrial injury of migrant workers and builds regression models of desire for industrial injury insurance. It concludes that factors such as gender, industrial type, enterprise type and work feature correlate significantly with occurrence of industrial injury and that factors including understanding of industrial injure insurance, educational level, industrial type, and enterprise type make a notable impact on the desire for participating in the insurance. How Migrant Workers Reside and What Do They Want A Case of Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province Kong Dong 104 The residing status and changing trend are important indicatives of migrant workers livelihood and human development. Based on a sampling survey, this paper reveals such information and its implications to policy-making. 112