Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: September 26, 2018 Prepared by the UNL College of Business, Bureau of Business Research Author: Dr. Eric Thompson Leading Economic Indicator...1 Coincident Economic Indicator. 3 Weights and Component Shares. 5 Performance of the LEI-N and CEI-N. 6 Summary: The Leading Economic Indicator Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 rose by 1.00% during August of 2018. Solid growth in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests that Nebraska economic growth will be solid during the first few months of 2019. Business expectations were a positive component of the leading indicator. Respondents to the August Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months. There also was an improvement in manufacturing hours and airline passenger counts, while initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped. Leading Economic Indicator Nebraska Figure 1 shows the change in the Leading Economic Indicator Nebraska (LEI-N) during compared to the previous month. The LEI-N predicts economic growth six months into the future. The LEI-N rose by 1.00% in August. Figure 1: Change in LEI-N 2.40% 1.20% -2.40% Rapid Growth Moderate Growth Moderate Decline Rapid Decline 1.00% Figure 2 shows the change in the LEI-N over the last six months. The indicator rose slowly from May through July of 2018 but growth improved in August. The August improvement suggests that economic growth will be solid rather than slow in Nebraska during early 2019. 1 The author would like to thank Dr. William Walstad for helping to design the LEI-N. 1
Building Permits Airline Passengers Dollar Exchange Rate Initial UI Claims Manufacturing Hours Business Expectations Trend Adjustment 2.40% 1.20% 1.31% Figure 2: Change in LEI - N Last 6 Months 0.73% 0.30% 0.27% 0.25% 1.00% -2.40% Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Figure 3 shows the components of change in the Leading Economic Indicator Nebraska during August 2018. The change in the overall LEI N is the weighted average of changes in each component (see page 5). Four of six LEI-N components rose during August. Business expectations were a positive component. Respondents to the August Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months. Manufacturing hours and airline passenger counts both rose during August while initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped. Among declining components, building permits for single-family homes dropped during August. The value of the U.S. dollar also rose again in August, creating additional pressure on businesses which export. Note that the trend adjustment component pictured in Figure 3 is discussed on page 5. 2.40% Figure 3: LEI-N Components of Change 1.20% -0.07% 0.21% -0.23% 0.41% 0.10% 0.50% 0.09% -2.40% 2
Coincident Economic Indicator Nebraska The Coincident Economic Indicator - Nebraska (CEI-N) is a measure of the current size of the Nebraska economy. The CEI-N rose by 0.24% during August of 2018, as seen in Figure 4. 2.52% Figure 4: Change in CEI-N Rapid Growth 1.26% -1.26% -2.52% Moderate Growth Moderate Decline Rapid Decline 0.24% Figure 5 shows the change in the CEI-N over the last 6 months. The CEI-N has risen five of the last six months. The rate of growth declined in August relative to June and July. 2.52% Figure 5: Change in CEI-N Last 6 Months 1.26% 0.70% 0.19% 0.49% 0.44% 0.24% -1.26% -2.52% -1.06% Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Two of four CEI-N components rose during August. Business conditions were positive with respondents to the August Survey of Nebraska Business reporting an increase in both sales and employment during recent months. There also was an increase in electricity sales on a seasonally-adjusted basis. However, real private wages and agricultural commodity prices both fell during August. A detailed discussion of the components of the CEI-N and LEI-N can be found at www.cba.unl.edu in Technical Report: Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators- Nebraska. 3
Electricity Sales Private Wages Agricultural Commodities Business Conditions 2.52% 1.26% -1.26% -2.52% Figure 6: CEI-N Components of Change 0.49% -0.65% -0.25% 0.65% Figure 7 shows the forecast for the CEI-N over the next six months. The Nebraska economy is expected to grow throughout the second half of 2018. Economic growth also will be solid during the first two months of 2019. Forecast growth in the CEI-N is consistent with the improvements in the LEI-N over the last six months (Figure 2). 1.30% 0.80% 0.30% -0.20% -0.70% -1.70% Figure 7: 6-Month Forecast of Coincident Economic Indicator - Nebraska 0.79% 0.49% 0.16% 0.42% 0.46% 0.33% Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Index Growth Index Value 130.00 128.00 126.00 124.00 122.00 4
Weights and Component Shares Table 1 shows the weights used to aggregate the individual components into the LEI-N and CEI-N. The weights are the inverse of the standardized standard deviation of each component variable. The term standardized simply means that the inverse standard deviations are adjusted proportionately to sum to 1. This weighting scheme makes sense since individual components that are more stable have smaller standard deviations, and therefore, a larger inverse standard deviation. A large movement in a typically stable economic series would provide a more powerful signal of economic change than a large movement in a series with significant month-to-month fluctuations. Leading Economic Indicator - Nebraska Table 1: Component Weights for LEI-N and CEI-N Weight (Inverse STD Standardize) Coincident Economic Indicator - Nebraska Weight (Inverse STD Standardize) Variable Standard Deviation Inverse STD Variable Standard Deviation Inverse STD SF Housing Permits 13.3002 0.0752 0.0352 Electricity Sales 4.5836 0.2182 0.1602 Airline Passengers 3.2910 0.3039 0.1423 Private Wages 1.7459 0.5728 0.4206 Exchange Rate 1.1988 0.8342 0.3906 Agricultural Commodities 3.2928 0.3037 0.2230 Initial UI Claims 10.7751 0.0928 0.0435 Survey Business Conditions 3.7421 0.2672 0.1962 Manufacturing Hours 1.6804 0.5951 0.2786 Survey Business Expectations 4.2617 0.2346 0.1099 Tables 2 and 3 show the calculation for the change in LEI-N and CEI-N between July and August of 2018. Weights (from Table 1) are multiplied by the change to calculate the contribution of each component. Contributions are converted to percentage terms and summed. Note that in Table 2 a trend adjustment factor is utilized in calculating LEI-N. This is done because LEI-N historically under-predicts CEI-N by 0.09% per month. The U.S. Leading Economic Indicator also has a trend adjustment. Table 2: Component Contributions to the Change in Leading Economic Indicator Leading Economic Indicator - Nebraska Component Index Value (May 2007=100) Component Current Previous Difference Weight Contribution Percentage Contribution (Relative to Previous LEI-N) SF Building Permits 71.76 74.88-3.12 0.04-0.11-0.07% Airline Passengers 115.06 112.93 2.13 0.14 0.30 0.21% U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate (Inverse) 83.41 84.27-0.86 0.39-0.33-0.23% Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims (Inverse) 169.92 155.86 14.06 0.04 0.61 0.41% Manufacturing Hours 95.99 95.49 0.50 0.28 0.14 0.10% Survey Business Expectations 1 56.69 6.69 0.11 0.74 0.50% Trend Adjustment 0.13 0.09% Total (weighted average) 149.28 147.80 1.48 1.00% 1 Survey results are a diffusion Index, which is always compared to 50 Table 3: Component Contributions to the Change in Coincident Economic Indicator Coincident Economic Indicator - Nebraska Component Index Value (May 2007=100) Component Current Previous Difference Weight Contribution Percentage Contribution (Relative to Previous CEI-N) Electricity Sales 184.42 180.60 3.82 0.16 0.61 0.49% Private Wage 111.60 113.54-1.93 0.42-0.81-0.65% Agricultural Commodities 114.27 115.68-1.41 0.22-0.31-0.25% Survey Business Conditions 1 54.13 4.13 0.20 0.81 0.65% Total (weighted average) 125.21 124.91 0.29 0.24% 1 Survey results are a diffusion Index, which is always compared to 50 5
2001.1 2001.5 2001.9 2002.1 2002.5 2002.9 2003.1 2003.5 2003.9 2004.1 2004.5 2004.9 2005.1 2005.5 2005.9 2006.1 2006.5 2006.9 2007.1 2007.5 2007.9 2008.1 2008.5 2008.9 2009.1 2009.5 2009.9 2010.1 2010.5 2010.9 2011.1 2011.5 2011.9 2012.1 2012.5 2012.9 2013.1 2013.5 2013.9 2014.1 2014.5 2014.9 2015.1 2015.5 2015.9 2016.1 2016.5 2016.9 2017.1 2017.5 2017.9 2018.1 2018.5 2018.9 2019.01 2001.1 2001.7 2002.1 2002.7 2003.1 2003.7 2004.1 2004.7 2005.1 2005.7 2006.1 2006.7 2007.1 2007.7 2008.1 2008.7 2009.1 2009.7 2010.1 2010.7 2011.1 2011.7 2012.1 2012.7 2013.1 2013.7 2014.1 2014.7 2015.1 2015.7 2016.1 2016.7 2017.1 2017.7 Performance of the LEI-N and CEI-N Further information is available on both economic indicators to demonstrate how well the CEI-N tracks the Nebraska economy and how well the LEI-N leads the CEI-N. Figure 8 shows the value of CEI-N and the real gross state product (real GDP) in Nebraska for 2001 through 2017. Annual real gross state product data is provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, and quarterly values were estimated using quarterly earnings data. CEI-N closely tracks Nebraska real GDP for the period. The correlation coefficient between the two pictured series is 0.95. 130.00 125.00 120.00 115.00 110.00 105.00 100.00 95.00 90.00 85.00 80.00 Figure 8: Coincident Economic Indicator - Nebraska Comparison with Nebraska Real Quarterly GDP CEI-N (May 2007=100) Real GDP (May 2007=100), SA Figure 9 again shows the values for the CEI-N. It also graphs 6-months forward values for the LEI-N. Recall that the LEI-N is intended to forecast the Nebraska economy six months into the future. This implies that Figure 9 is comparing the predicted movement in CEI-N (predicted by LEI-N values six months earlier) with the actual movement in CEI-N. In Figure 9, predicted values using the LEI-N closely track trends and movement in the CEI-N. The correlation coefficient between CEI-N and six-month forward values of LEI-N is 0.92. Figure 9: 6-Month Forward Value of Leading Economic Indicator - Nebraska Comparison with Coincident Economic Indicator - Nebraska 150.00 140.00 130.00 120.00 110.00 100.00 90.00 80.00 CEI-N (May 2007=100) LEI-N, 6 Month Forward (May 2007=100) 6