Weekly Financial Market update Roster Coaster Weekend! Thanks to SEPLAT Inflation rate up marginally to 11.28% December 14, 2018
Weekly financial Market Update Weekly Market Summary: The Market breadth closed positive at 2.1x The week was such a busy one with influx of data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Q3 2018 GDP, Capital importation and November 2018 inflation figures. From the data released, RGDP growth in Q3 2018 stood at 1.18%(vs 1.50% in Q2 18) largely driven by non-oil sector performance as against the decline in oil sector activities, capital importation declined by 4% as FPI fell by over 100% while inflation rate increased by 2 basis points to 11.28% in November 2018 from 11.26% in October 2018 on the back of increase in food inflation. On the global space, OPEC meetings and its outlook as well as the US economic condition have continued to take divers toll on global economic trajectory and prospect. The truce between Trump and Xi is still a major concern to global equities market and how far Jay Powell can go with rate hike as a slow domestic economic growth and inimical inflation rate could shift the neutral growth level closer than expected just as bearish oil prices has been major concern to the growth momentum of the economies of OPEC members and foreign reserves levels. To the local bourse, it resumed the week on a negative note at -0.82%, inched up 0.34% at the end of the preceding trading day thereafter declined on Wednesday and Thursday by -0.25% and -0.24% which almost dashed the hope of a positive close in the week. Surprisingly, NSEASI index rose 0.37% to finish the week at 30,681.5 from 30,866.82. In all, the equities market capitalization lost N60.807billion to end at N11.207trillion. Money Market Rates Rate(%) %Δ Overnight rate 27.21 9.96 Open Buy 24.57 8.07 Daily Commodity Price Watch Previous Current Daily (%) Brent($/PB) 60.02 60.28 0.43 Gold 1242.75 1239.02-0.30 Silver 14.86 14.64-1.48 Platinum 792.22 787-0.66 Copper 278.35 276.25-0.75 w-o-w returns chart Gainers %Δ FO 33.889 JOHNHOLT 20.000 VERITASKAP 19.048 CAP 18.254 UBN 14.019 ETERNA 10.714 BERGER 10.000 NIGERINS 10.000 JAPAULOIL 10.000 AIRSERVICE 9.524 losers %Δ CONTINSURE -12.5 PRESTIGE -10.91 MRS -9.98 NNFM -9.43 TRANSEXPR -9.23 NIGERINS -9.09 CCNN -8.33 MBENEFIT -8 AGLEVENT -6.9 CILEASING -5.83
Even though most sectors closed in the green territory week on week, however, marginal. On top of the list were industrial goods sector 0.71% due to gain in BERGER 10.0%, trailed by insurance and banking sector indexes which inched up 0.20% and 0.17% respectively while MRS and NNFM topped the drags on consumer goods and oil and gas indexes. Going forward, a total volume of 1.158billion shares worth N14.69billion were exchange in 14,425 deals compared to 1.107billion shares valued N11.191billion which were exchanged in 14,430 deals. It represents -0.03%, 4.70% and 31.30% change in the indicators in that order. In addition, we observed that investors sold off STERLNBANK, ETERNA, HONYFLOUR and UNIONDAC which dragged its shares in the red while positive interest was sustained in JOHNHOLT, UBN, NIGERINS and CONTINSURE. Furthermore, the relative strength index (RSI) inched up 35.88 from 32.66 while Year to Date(YtD) return improved to -19.77% by 30 basis points. Review of Sectoral Performance At the end of today s session, sectors mostly closed in the positive territory save industrial goods index which slipped -0.40% to finish at 1,227.34 upon profit taking in DANGCEM -0.54% as against gains in FIRSTALUM 10.0% and BERGER 10.0%. On the positive counters, oil and gas indexes spiked 4.85% to close at 279.12 due to intensified buying interest in SEPLAT 10.0% and OANDO 1.02% in contrast to loss in ETERNA -4.12%, insurance index trailed by 0.93% as investor bought the dip in VERITASKAP 8.7%, CONTINSURE 5.11%, MBENEFIT 5.0%, NIGERINS 4.76% and AFRIPRUD 1.74% as against depreciation in NEM - 2.13%. Banking sector and consumer goods indexes advanced 0.31% and 0.21% respectively as a result of gains in DIAMONDBNK 9.2%, FCMB 5.84%, UBN 4.27%, NB 4.6% and DANGFLOUR 3.97%. Movement of NSEASI(Year-to-Date) Relative Strength Index (RSI)
NSE Market Indices Return Open(points) Close(points) Daily(%) WtD(%) MtD(%) YTD(%) NSE All Share Index 30568.05 30681.50 0.37-0.60-0.62-19.77 NSE Banking Sector Index 401.47 402.72 0.31 0.17 1.07-15.30 NSE Industrial Goods Index 1232.26 1227.34-0.40 0.71-1.38-37.87 NSE Consumer Goods Index 719.35 720.21 0.12-2.63-2.01-26.22 NSE Oil & Gas Index 266.22 279.12 4.85-0.84 1.12-15.59 NSE Insurance Index 121.61 122.74 0.93 0.20-2.87-11.93 Source: NSE, MorganCapital Research Market sentiment The bulls helped 21 counters uptrend compared to 10 losers recorded today. Our position remains that bearish sentiments persist in near term as investors are enjoined to trade circumspectly. Top Gainers Top Losers Ticker Close Change %Δ Ticker Price Change %Δ BERGER 7.15 0.65 10 PZ 10.35-1.15-10 FIRSTALUM 0.33 0.03 10 STERLNBANK 1.81-0.18-9.05 SEPLAT 594 54 10 FIDSON 4.6-0.3-6.12 INITSPLC 0.67 0.06 9.84 ETERNA 4.65-0.2-4.12 UCAP 2.8 0.24 9.38 UNIONDAC 0.25-0.01-3.85 DIAMONDBNK 0.95 0.08 9.2 HONYFLOUR 1.11-0.03-2.63 JOHNHOLT 0.48 0.04 9.09 FLOURMILL 20.55-0.45-2.14 VERITASKAP 0.25 0.02 8.7 NEM 2.3-0.05-2.13 UACN 10.7 0.7 7 NESTLE 1450-30 -2.03 FCMB 1.63 0.09 5.84 DANGCEM 185-1 -0.54 Top Traded Stocks by Volume Top Traded Stocks by Value Ticker Deal Volume %Δ Ticker Deal Value %Δ FCMB 90 105,313,365.00 1810.65 UBA 71 761,998,209.90 956.73 UBA 71 100,927,249.00 948.05 GUARANTY 149 349,679,844.35-36.72 FIDSON 5 38,010,300.00 345448 ZENITHBANK 194 257,671,741.80-36.63 ACCESS 86 18,152,221.00-24.68 FIDSON 5 174,845,835.00 357092.72 FBNH 172 12,244,047.00-51.58 FCMB 90 163,516,449.84 1818.87 ZENITHBANK 194 11,203,481.00-36.51 NESTLE 48 152,393,917.30-85.76 GUARANTY 149 9,991,796.00-36.74 ACCESS 86 135,255,928.05-24.67 DIAMONDBNK 52 7,163,391.00-29.67 FBNH 172 89,873,278.55-50.88 FIDELITYBK 54 5,568,051.00-70.3 DANGCEM 34 33,382,851.80-81.7 TRANSCORP 80 4,951,265.00-63.19 WAPCO 57 19,600,445.60 87.97 Source: NSE, MorganCapital Research
NASD OTC Performance PARAMETER Previous Current Weekly(%) Daily (%) USI 729.96 709.29 0.77-2.83 Capitalization ( 'Bn) 507.34 492.97 0.77-2.83 Volume Traded 1200 1138394 400.30 94766.17 Value Traded ( '000) 180 34107.55 859.14 18848.64 Deals Executed 1 14-17.65 1300.00 NSEASI & Moving Averages (100 and 200-day) Source: NSE, MorganCapital Research Global Market Performance Top Performers 1 day 12/13 1 week 1 month 3 months Index Change Index Change Index Change Index Change Poland 1.58% Egypt 5.03% Philippines 9.92% Brazil 17.61% Mexico 1.50% Sweden 2.93% Argentina 8.68% Hungary 8.93% Turkey 1.48% Mongolia 2.62% Vietnam 6.06% Indonesia 5.45% Shenzhen 1.43% London 2.59% Indonesia 5.87% Russia 4.13% Hong Kong 1.29% Denmark 2.58% Poland 4.06% Argentina 3.32% Egypt 1.28% Paris 2.44% Brazil 3.44% Poland 2.54% Shanghai 1.23% Italy 1.93% Hungary 2.96% Philippines 0.07% SZ SME 1.18% Spain 1.91% Hong Kong 2.84% Singapore -0.66% Indonesia 1.02% Netherlands 1.87% Russia 2.66% Mongolia -0.72% Brazil 0.99% S. Africa 1.83% India 2.23% Abu Dhabi -1.48% Top Decliners 1 day 12/13 1 week 1 month 3 months Index Change Index Change Index Change Index Change Rus 2000-1.41% Argentina -3.12% Ireland -9.80% Ireland -16.49% Thailand -1.22% Rus 2000-2.97% Nigeria -9.10% Mexico -16.46% Sweden -1.03% Thailand -2.34% Luxembourg -8.22% Rus 2000-16.40% Norway -0.76% Rus 3000-2.21% Austria -7.45% Luxembourg -16.08% Finland -0.73% Rus 3000-1.92% Jordan -6.53% Egypt -13.22% Austria -0.68% Rus 1000-1.83% UAE Dubai -6.36% Austria -12.07% Portugal -0.48% Hungary -1.81% Rus 2000-5.32% NASDAQ -11.77% NASDAQ -0.39% S&P 500-1.68% Frankfurt -4.77% Rus 3000 growth -11.41% Netherlands -0.28% NASDAQ -1.64% Czech -4.60% Portugal -9.94% Paris -0.26% Rus 3000-1.61% Norway -4.33% Finland -9.84%
MorganCapital Securities Limited ("MorganCapital"), formerly known as International Capital Securities Limited, was incorporated on 28th January, 1997; and was issued a license as a Dealing Member of the NSE on 3rd October, 1997, after obtaining license of the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker/Dealer. The Company has remained a dealing member firm of the NSE since then (over 17years ago). In 2009, MorganCapital got licensed by the SEC to perform an additional role as an Issuing House/Financial Adviser. MorganCapital was recently accredited by the Nigerian Stock Exchange as a Designated Adviser to the Alternative Securities Market (ASeM) Board, after a very rigorous and competitive process. MorganCapital is a full fledge Investment Banking, Securities Trading and Principal Investments Firm, with licenses from the Nigerian Securities & Exchange Commission and the Nigerian Stock Exchange. MorganCapital provides a comprehensive range of investment banking and financial advisory services to private, public sector, corporate, and institutional clients. Our firm has very strong contacts with many African-focused & emerging markets investors/fund managers. MorganCapital has advised on a number of transactions in the Nigerian Capital Markets, including provision of Financial Advisory Service to the Federal Government of Nigeria, through the Bureau of Public Enterprises ("BPE") for the concessioning of the National Arts Theater, the Tafawa Balewa Square, the Lagos Trade fair complex and the 6 National Stadia. MorganCapital also advised the BPE on the proposed sale of the Ijora Power Plant, the Calabar Power Plant and the Oji River coal-fired power plant. Our group is focused on providing unbiased financial advisory and investment banking services to individuals and institutions that are seeking to invest in Africa or already involved in investing in Africa. One of our goals is to be the BEST link to the Nigerian Capital Market. CONTACT US Research Omosuyi Temitope temitopeo@morgancapitalgroup.com Investment Banking Adewale Adetiba adewalea@morgancapitalgroup.com Securities Dealing Ogochukwu Njoku ogochukwun@morgancapitalgroup.com Michael Joel michaelj@morgancapitalgroup.com For further information, please contact: MorganCapital Securities Limited The Pent House 3 Biaduo Street, Off Keffi Street S/West Ikoyi Lagos, Nigeria Tel: 234-(1) 3429613, 234-(1)4540114 Email: info@morgancapitalgroup.com This report by MorganCapital Securities Ltd is for information purposes only. The company and its employees do not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information provided as such information was gathered from primary and secondary reliable sources. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of market trends, which are based on current market sentiment. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for a ll investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of equity securities may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. We, therefore, do not take responsibility for any loss arising from the use of the information.