Yapı Kredi 9M15 Investor Presentation Resilient commercial performance in a challenging environment November 2015
Volatile operating environment marked by currency depreciation and rising rates Macro Environment 2014 2Q15 3Q15 GDP Growth, y/y 2.9% 3.8% - Inflation (CPI), y/y 8.2% 7.2% 7.9% Consumer Confidence Index 72.5 65.4 61.8 Current Account Deficit/GDP 5.9% 5.9% - Unemployment Rate 9.9% 10.4% 10.4% Banking Sector 10.9% 10.1% 2.257 9.9% 2.192 10.0% 2.126 2.201 9.1% 8.6% 8.4% 8.3% 2.300 8.2% 2.638 Recent Developments 9.3% 8.0% 2.754 9.8% 8.4% 3.029 2.907 2.846 10.6% 10.1% 9.1% 8.7% 7.3% 1 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Benchmark Bond Rate Average CoF USD/TL 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Loan Growth 19% 7% 6% 6% Private 17% 6% 5% 5% State 21% 10% 6% 7% Deposit Growth 10% 7% 6% 6% NPL Ratio 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% CAR 15.7% 14.9% 14.8% 14.1% Slowdown in GDP growth, rising inflation and decreasing consumer confidence Following a significant currency depreciation (avg. 25% TL depreciation ytd as of 3Q15) and rising rates, rapid start of improving trend after elections Banking sector resilient with ongoing loan growth (state banks continuing to differentiate) and only slight uptick in NPL ratio (+7bps q/q) 2 Notes: All 3Q macro data as of Sep 15 unless otherwise stated; Unemployment based on seasonally adjusted figures as of Aug 15 3Q15 sector and private banks volume and NPL ratio data based on BRSA weekly data as of 2 Oct 15; CAR based on BRSA monthly data as of Sep 15 indicating deposit banks Average CoF: Weighted average cost of outstanding funding of the CBRT via open market operations including O/N repo, one-week repo and one-month repo (1) Chart update as of 12 Nov 15
Yapı Kredi: A leading financial services group Ratings Moody s: Baa3 / Fitch: BBB / S&P: BB+ Yapı Kredi Overview Assets Shareholders Equity Active Customers Net Income Bank CAR 3 247.8 bln TL 22.0 bln TL 11.0 mln 1,274 mln TL 12.9% Loans Deposits+ TL Bonds 2 Employees 153.7 bln TL 140.1 bln TL 19,517 Branches Share of ADCs 1,015 5 85% RoATE 6 Total NPL Coverage 4 7 8.6% 114% 4th largest private bank and deep rooted franchise (established in 1944) Among top 10 most valuable brands 8 in Turkey Integrated network with widespread branch coverage and strong presence in digital Young and qualified workforce serving a wide customer base Core-banking focused balance sheet (highest loans/assets; lowest securities/assets among peers) Conservative risk profile and prudent provisioning policy Resilient capital base and funding capability 3 Note: Loans indicate performing loans. ROAE indicates Return on Average Equity (1) On 24 Jun 14, Fitch affirmed YKB s Long-Term Foreign Currency and Long-Term Local Currency ratings at BBB while downgrading private peers ratings to BBB- from BBB. (2) Deposits: TL 136.3 bln, TL Bonds: TL 3.8 bln (3) Indicates customers with at least one product usage in the last 1.5 years (4) Group data. Bank-only: 18,430 (5) Share of alternative delivery channels (ADCs) in total comparable transactions (6) RoATE indicates return on average tangible equity (excl goodwill) (7) Total NPL Coverage indicates (Specific+ Generic Provisions)/NPLs (8) Brand Finance Turkey 100 report 2015 (Yapı Kredi ranked number 10 as of Feb 15)
Leading positions in value generating services and products Market Position Market Shares 9M14/9M15 Rank Cash + Non-cash Loans 10.7% 11.4% 3 +1 Total Bank Loans Deposits 9.9% 9.8% 10.5% 10.5% 4 +1 5 +1 Revenues 9.6% 9.9% 5 Headcount 8.9% 9.1% 4 Network Branches ATM Internet Banking 8.7% 7.5% 9.0% 8.8% 12.3% 14.7% 3 5 - +2 +1 Mobile Banking 10.9% 12.5% - Credit Card Outstanding 20.5% 21.4% 1 Credit Card Issuing 18.5% 19.4% 1 Retail Number of Cards Consumer Loans Commercial Installment Loans 1 2 8.3% 6.4% 6.4% 9.9% 17.9% 18.0% 1 6 6 Company Loans 3 9.3% 9.7% 4 +1 Corporate Leasing Factoring 14.8% 17.7% 18.2% 17.4% 1 1 Cheque Clearing 10.9% 11.8% 1 +1 Mutual Funds 17.7% 17.5% 2 Private Borsa Istanbul Transaction Volume Equity Transaction Volume 4 6.6% 6.4% 7.5% 7.1% 1 2 4 Note: Market shares and rankings as of Sep15 (leasing and facotoring are as of Jun 15). Market share and ranking based on: Interbank Card Center (for credit card acquiring and number of cardholders), Turkish Leasing Association (for leasing), Turkish Factoring Association (for factoring), Central Bank Cheque Clearing System (for cheque clearing) Rasyonet (for mutual funds), Borsa Istanbul (for Borsa İstanbul and equity transaction volume). If not specified, data based on BRSA bank-only data for YKB and BRSA weekly sector data excluding participation banks for banking sector (1) Including mortgages, general purpose and auto loans (2) Proxy for SME loans (3) Cash loans excluding credit cards and consumer loans (4) Includes equity and derivative transaction volumes Ranking evolution vs 9M14
Well-diversified business mix on the back of a customer-oriented and divisionalised service model Revenues and Volumes by Business Unit (9M15) Retail 1 60% 49% 58% 97% L Organisational Structure Individual (incl. Card Payment Systems) SME Private 25% 32% 3% 31% 17% 0.5% 20% 24% 9% 25% 57% Card Payment Systems 10.4 mln cards 2 ~556K POS 411K merchants Retail Banking Individual & SME 924 branches 4.2k RMs 4,190 ATMs Private Banking and Wealth Management 22 branches 183 RMs Corporate and Commercial Banking Corporate 3 branches 70 RMs Commercial 59 branches 570 RMs Further segmented as mid/large companies International / Multinationals 1 branch 22 headcount ~1,500 customers Corporate 12% 27% Subsidiaries: Subsidiaries: 41% Commercial 23% 32% 15% Treasury 1% and Other 5% 3% Revenues Loans Deposits Assets Under Management Total Assets US$ 2.0 bln International Operations US$ 173 mln US$ 356 mln Malta US$ 67 mln 5 Source: Approximate numbers based on MIS reporting for company information. Asset size data of international operations based on 9M15 BRSA financials Branch numbers exclude 3 mobile, 1 free-zone, 1 abroad, 1 custody branches (1) Includes individual, SME and private (2) Including 2.1 mln virtual cards L = Listed
Strong and committed shareholders Shareholding Structure Stable, long-term focused shareholding structure supporting YKB s balanced growth and sustainable performance Established in 1926, largest conglomerate in Turkey and ranks among the world s top 400 companies 1 Long-standing leadership in core sectors (automotive, finance, energy, consumer durables, food, retailing, tourism) 5 out of top 10 industrial enterprises in Turkey are part of the Koç Group 2 Best proxy to the Turkish market (total sales/gdp: 8%, total exports/turkey s exports: 9%) Share of intragroup lending in total capital at 14.8% as of 9M15 (max regulatory limit 20%) Total Assets (US$ bln) 24.3 Revenues (US$ mln) 19,309 Net Income (US$ mln) 834 Number of Employees 94,513 50% 50% d 81.8% 3 YKB considered a key long-term strategic asset by both shareholders Systemically important Italian financial institution in Europe with roots dating back to 1473 Full service group engaged in a wide range of banking, financial and related activities Extensive international presence with strong roots in 17 European countries and presence in 50 other markets Leader in Austria, #2 in Italy, #3 in Germany. Turkey among top 4 long-term growth markets in CEE 2.5 bln funding to YKB as of 9M15 (o/w 50% for YKB subsidiaries) Total Assets (US$ bln) 983 Revenues (US$ mln) 5,994 Net Income (US$ mln) 570 Number of Employees 146,366 4 Ratings Moody s: Baa3 / S&P: BBB- Ratings Moody s: Baa2 / Fitch: BBB+ / S&P: BBB- 6 Note: All information and figures regarding Koç and UniCredit based on publicly available 9M15 financials (1) Fortune Global 500 2015 report, ranking based on an average annual growth rate of 13% in consolidated profit in US$ terms between 2004-2014 (2) Istanbul Chamber of Commerce ranking (2014 report), ranking based on production-based sales (3) Remaining 18.2% listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange and Global Depository Receipts that represent the Bank s shares are quoted on the London Stock Exchange (4) Data includes employees of Koç Financial Services calculated at 100%
Successful execution of strategy resulting in delivery of strong results 2006 Merger and Integration 2007 Restructuring Between 2007 and 9M15 2008 Relaunch of Growth 2009 Global Crisis 2010 Back to Growth 2011 2012 2013 Smart Growth Revenues +13% Costs +11% (vs average inflation of 8%) Number of branches +67% Number of ATMs +145% Number of employees +37% 2014 Growth Oriented Investment Strategy 7 Notes: Compounded annual growth rates used for revenues and costs. Increase in number of branches, employees and ATMs calculated from beginning of 2007 Sector data based on BRSA monthly financials as of Sep 15
Commercial performance intact with strong focus on effectively managing the volatile environment Ongoing volume growth and remix 3Q vs 2Q Δ YKB YKB Private Banks ytd Δ State Banks Sector Market Share ytd Δ (bps) Loans 8% 22% 17% 24% 20% 10.5% +24 Consumer Loans 6% 21% 8% 9% 8% 9.9% +108 Loan-Deposit Spread (quarterly) +15bps 2.5% 2.6% Solid commercial performance Core Revenue Growth (y/y) 12% 19% 11.7% +512k customers acquired in 9M15 Adjusted RoATE 2 10.6% Companies 1 9% 26% 22% 31% 25% 9.7% +8 Deposits 8% 27% 19% 21% 20% 10.5% +51 11.2% 8.6% Demand 12% 47% 19% 16% 18% 10.7% +214 2Q15 3Q15 9M14 9M15 9M14 9M15 Above sector volume growth with significant outperformance in value generating consumer loans and demand deposits 112% 109% Loans/Deposits Ratio 3 (bank-only) YKB: -3pp ytd (Sector: flat) 109% 108% YKB Sector 111% 110% 109% 109% Resilient fundamentals Asset Quality Flat q/q vs sector: +7bps 4 3.6% 3.6% Core spread +15bps thanks to upward loan repricing and remix Strong growth in core revenues Capital Adequacy Ratio (bank-only) ~15% ~15% 14.0% +70bps in Nov 15 12.9% RoATE at 10.6% excluding one-offs LDR maintained at comfortable levels Better than sector NPL ratio evolution CAR impacted by significant currency depreciation and MtM of AFS 2014 1Q15 1H15 9M15 2Q15 3Q15 1H15 9M15 excl. impact of currency and MtM of AFS 8 (1) Total loans excluding consumer loans and credit cards (2) RoATE adjustments include (post-tax): Fixed asset revaluation (TL-104 mln), Fee rebates (TL+130 mln), One-off specific provisions (TL+84 mln), Additional generic provisions (TL+193 mln) (3) LDR (incl.tl bonds and bank deposits) for sector based on BRSA monthly data as of Sep 15 (4) NPL ratio for sector based on BRSA weekly data as of 2 Oct 15
Headcount and branch investments finalized; ATM network continues to expand Headcount Branches ATMs 19,517 2014: +1,850 9M15: +983 1,015 2014: +60 new (1) 9M15: +12 new (1) 4,217 2014: +600 9M15: +584 Market Share +23 bps y/y to 9.1% Market Share +26bps y/y to 9.0% Market Share +130 bps y/y to 8.8% (1) Net increase 9
Strong focus on digitalization in order to increase customer satisfaction and decrease cost to serve Best Mobile Banking in Europe Award Internet Banking 2.4 mln customers (+41% y/y) 14.7% market share (+230bps y/y) 13% of GPLs sold via internet bank Digitalization @ YKB 85% non-branch transaction penetration Mobile Banking 1.3 mln customers (+113% y/y) 12.5% market share (+165bps y/y) 6% of GPLs sold via mobile app Call Center 3.2 mln annual sales (+8% y/y) 11% of GPLs sold via call center 882K annual credit card retention and beyond... First Apple Watch banking app in Turkey Direct banking NUVO Internet and mobile banking customers based on active customer definition 10
Effective loan book remix via significantly above sector growth in value generating areas while maintaining conservative underwriting principles TL bln 1Q vs 2014 Δ 2Q vs 1Q Δ 3Q vs 2Q Δ ytd Δ 9M15 YKB YKB Private Banks Sector Market Share Total Loans 1 153.7 8% 5% 8% 22% 17% 20% 10.5% TL 97.1 7% 5% 4% 16% 11% 13% 10.4% FC ($) 18.6-2% 3% 2% 3% -1% 3% 10.7% Consumer Loans 28.8 6% 8% 6% 21% 8% 8% 9.9% Loan Remix (FX adjusted 4 ) Retail Cards 27% 29% 14% 14% Auto Comm Install Mortg GPL 1% 29% 32% 38% Loans vs 2014-1 pp -2 pp flat +3 pp Mortgages 12.6 5% 7% 3% 15% 12% 14% 9.7% General Purpose 15.8 9% 9% 9% 30% 5% 5% 10.1% Credit Cards 19.4 2% 3% 4% 9% 6% 6% 21.4% Companies 2 105.5 10% 5% 9% 26% 22% 25% 9.7% TL 48.9 9% 4% 2% 16% 15% 17% 8.8% FC ($) 18.6-2% 3% 2% 3% -1% 3% 10.7% SME 3 49.3 10% 15% 9% 37% 17% 16% 13.9% Comm. Install. 12.0 9% 4% 1% 14% 17% 19% 6.4% Loan growth +22% ytd (12% FX-adj 4 ) with solid growth in 4Q (8% q/q) mainly driven by TL Evident outperformance vs private peers (+75bps market share gain ytd) Corp/ Comm Loan Market Share Among private banks 59% 57% 2014 9M15 15.5% 15.9% 15.9% TL 46% vs 2014 +3 pp FC 54% 16.2% -3 pp Share q/q ytd y/y Project Finance 59% 4% 9% 24% LT Investments 32% 3% -1% -4% ST Loans 9% -7% -1% 0% +75 bps ytd Ongoing remix towards value generating areas and conservative approach to FX lending (+3% ytd, in line with sector) Among total 10.2% 10.4% 10.4% 10.5% 2014 1Q15 1H15 9M15 +24 bps ytd 11 Note: Balance sheet volumes for sector and private banks based on BRSA weekly data as of 2 Oct 15. SME market share based on BRSA monthly data as of Sep 15. FC-indexed loans included in TL loans (1) Total performing loans (2) Total loans excluding consumer loans and credit cards (3) SME definition: <TL 40 mln annual turnover as per BRSA. YKB internal SME definition: <US$ 10 mln annual turnover (share of TL: 95%) (4) FX adjustment utilizes 2014-end USD/TL rate 2.32 as constant
Above sector deposit growth and ongoing funding diversification Deposits Liability Breakdown Funding 9M15 1Q vs 2014 Δ 2Q vs 1Q Δ 3Q vs 2Q Δ YKB ytd Δ Private Sector Total Deposits 136.3 11% 5% 8% 27% 19% 20% 10.5% TL 65.4 2% -3% 4% 4% 0% 5% 9.7% FC ($) 23.3 10% 11% -1% 21% 11% 10% 11.5% Customer 1 132.4 9% 6% 8% 26% 20% 20% 11.0% Demand 24.4 14% 15% 12% 47% 19% 18% 10.7% TL Bonds 3.8 9% 2% 5% 17% -6% -4% 13.4% Repos 10.6 9% 0% 58% 71% 17% 15% 7.0% Borrowings 52.8 12% -2% 15% 27% 23% 27% Market Share Other Shareholders Equity Borrowings Repos Deposits 10% 11% 11% 9% 21% 21% 3% 4% 55% 55% 2014 9M15 Demand / Total Deposits Market share +214 bps ytd 15% 16% 17% 18% 2014 1Q15 1H15 9M15 Segment Deposit Growth 9M15 (ytd) Corp/Comm 21% TL -26% FC ($) 32% Individual 26% TL 20% FC ($) 9% SME 19% TL 8% FC ($) 10% Private 29% TL 0% FC ($) 31% Deposit growth +27% ytd (11% FX-adj 2 ) driven by FC deposits due to shift by companies and private customers. Ongoing strong growth in TL in individuals Strong evolution in demand deposits (+47% ytd vs +18% sector) Increased usage of repo in 3Q due to favourable rates (8.8% vs 11.1% avg TL time deposit cost). Share in total still low (4% vs 7% peer average 3 ) Funding diversification ongoing (i) ~US$ 1.2 bln syndication rolled over at 101% and improved pricing (Libor/Euribor+0.75% vs 0.9% in 2014) (ii) US$ 575 mln DPR transaction with 5-12 yr maturity 12 Note: Balance sheet volumes for sector based on BRSA weekly data as of 2 Oct 15 except for TL bonds and borrowings which are based on BRSA monthly data as of Sep 15 (1) Excluding bank deposits (2) FX adjustment utilizes 2014-end USD/TL rate 2.32 as constant (3) Peer average as of 9M15
Solid commercial performance partly overshadowed by one-off impacts, adjusted Tangible RoAE at 10.6% Income Statement 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 q/q 9M14 9M15 y/y Total Revenues 1,938 2,149 2,201 2,409 2,565 2,352-8% 6,288 7,326 17% Core Revenues 1,862 2,090 2,067 2,150 2,526 2,466-2% 6,019 7,141 19% Operating Costs 935 1,029 1,009 1,185 1,228 1,249 2% 2,974 3,661 23% Net Income (excl. one-offs) excl. one-offs +5% 1,504 1,577 Operating Income 1,003 1,120 1,192 1,224 1,337 1,103-18% 3,314 3,665 11% Provisions 463 443 515 571 731 650-11% 1,421 1,953 37% Specific Provisions 343 322 374 394 403 416 3% 1,039 1,213 17% Generic Provisions 88 94 114 144 235 243 3% 296 622 110% 1,442 9M14 1,274 9M15 Pre-tax Income 540 677 677 654 606 453-25% 1,893 1,712-10% Net Income 429 501 513 501 455 318-30% 1,442 1,274-12% Tangible ROAE 1 (excl. one-offs 2 ) Strong core revenue evolution (+19% y/y) driven by both fees and NII Costs +23% y/y due to growth investments and impact of fee rebates; physical investment needs almost fully finalized as of 9M15. Excl. fee rebates, costs +20% y/y Provisions +37% y/y mainly driven by credit card regulation and currency depreciation impact on generic provisions Net income -12% y/y (+5% adjusted for one-offs 2 ) 11.7% 11.2% 9M14 10.6% 8.6% 9M15 13 Note: (1) Tangible RoAE calculation based on the average of current period equity (excluding current period profit) and prior year equity. Annualised (2) T. RoAE adjustments include (post-tax): Fixed asset revaluation (TL-104 mln), Fee rebates (TL+130 mln), One-off specific provisions (TL+84 mln), Additional generic provisions (TL+193 mln)
Core revenue evolution above private banks with a growing spread Revenues Revenues (TL mln) Core revenue evolution vs private banks +17% 7,326 YKB Private banks 18% 19% 5,931 +6% 6,288 16% 65% 69% 70% Core revenues y/y 19% 16% 15% 15% NII 1Q15 1H15 9M15 2 Fees Other Core Revenues 1 26% 27% 28% 9% 4% 2% 9M13 9M14 9M15 5,379 6,019 7,141 Core revenues +19% y/y with significant outperformance vs private banks (15% y/y) 2 Total revenue growth lagging core revenue growth (17% y/y) due to pressure from swap costs and lower collections 14 (1) Core revenues indicate Net Interest Income + Fees & Commissions (2) Private banks based on BRSA monthly data as of Sep 15
Loan-deposit spread expanding due to effective pricing and remix Net Interest Margin Loan - Deposit Spread Net Interest Margin 3.6% Flat q/q if adj. by CPIlinkers 3.1% 3.6% 3.1% Same trend in swap adjusted NIM 3.5% 3.2% +15 bps 2.6% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% NIM -41 bps q/q due to lower contribution of CPI-linkers. Excluding CPI-linkers, NIM flat q/q 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 2014 9M15 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 2014 9M15 Quarterly Cumulative Quarterly Cumulative Loan-deposit spread +15bps q/q thanks to remix and upward loan repricing despite ongoing pressure on deposit costs Loan Yields Securities Yield Deposit Costs YKB Sector TL FC +16bps 11.4% 11.4% 11.6% 10.9% 5.4% 11.1% 4.9% 4.7% +34bps 11.4% +50bps 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 TL FC 8.1% 9.1% 7.0% 5.4% 5.4% 5.6% 10.4% 5.9% 5.7% 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 6.4% YKB Sector TL FC 7.4% 7.6% 1.7% +48bps 8.6% 8.1% 7.8% +34bps 8.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 1 1 15 Notes: All information on YKB based on BRSA bank-only financials (1) Sector based on BRSA monthly data as of Sep 15 NIM = Net interest income/average Interest Earning Assets. Loan yields, securities yields and cost of deposits based on average volumes. Loan yields calculated using performing loan volume and interest income Loan-Deposit Spread: (Interest Income on Loans-Interest Expense on Deposits)/Average(Loans+Deposits) NIM and securities yield exclude effect of reclassification between interest income and other provisions related to amortisation of issuer premium on securities (as per BRSA) Reported NIM figures as follows: 4Q14: 3.7%, 1Q15: 3.1%, 2Q15: 3.6%, 3Q15: 3.2%
Solid fee growth continuing; other income at normalised levels Fees & Commissions Fees / Opex YKB: 55% Sector: 45% 1 Net Fees & Commissions (TL mln) 1,561 9% 1,702 19% 2,022 Other Income Total Other Revenues 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 9M14 9M15 261 39-114 269 184 Other Income 276 169 120 513 565 Collections & Prov. Reversals 59 41 22 267 122 Subs and Other 217 128 98 246 443 Fees & Other Income Dividend Income 3 3 0 9 6 9M13 9M14 9M15 Fees Received Composition Trading & FX (net) -18-133 -234-254 -386 Bancassurance 6% (+50% y/y) Asset Mngmt 3% (+13% y/y) Other 2 11% (+14% y/y) Lending Related 33% (+29% y/y) Card Payment Systems 47% (+11% y/y) Solid fee growth (+19% y/y) mainly supported by value generating loan growth Other revenues negative mainly driven by trading Other income impacted by lower collections due to operating environment Trading line impacted by increasing swap costs (-315mln TL in 3Q15 vs -245mln TL in 2Q15 and -160 mln TL in 1Q15) (1) Sector data based on BRSA monthly financials as of Sep 15 (2) Other includes account maintenance, money transfers, equity trading, campaigns and product bundles, etc. 16
39% 56% Steady trend in cost evolution with deceleration to be more visible in the coming term Cost Breakdown Cost Growth, cumulative (y/y) HR 2,547 42% +17% +23% 3,661 2,974 39% 42% 27% excl. fee rebates +20% 23% 23% Non-HR 52% 53% 56% 1Q15 1H15 9M15 Other 6% 5% 5% 9M13 9M14 9M15 Costs / Assets 2.2% 2.2% 1.5% Cost / Income 49.1% 50.0% 48.5% Cost growth +23% y/y impacted by base effect of growth investments, fee rebates (TL63mln in 3Q15, TL 50mln in both 1Q&2Q) and currency depreciation Growth investments almost fully finalized as of Sep 15; disciplined ordinary cost management to continue 49.2% 47.5% 48.4% 1Q15 1H15 9M15 Cost/Income excl. one-offs Cost/Income 17 Note: Cost/Income adjustments include (pre-tax): Fixed asset revaluation (TL-104 mln), Fee rebates (TL+163 mln) Currency depreciation impact calculated bearing 10% of total cost base in FX; USD/TL average depreciation of 25% in 9M15; 15% in 9M14
Flat NPL ratio indicating better evolution vs sector NPL + Restructured Loan Ratio Asset Quality 3.4% Flat q/q vs sector:+7bps 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% Excl. oneoff entry in 1Q 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% Flat NPL ratio q/q (vs +7bps sector) and declining trend in restructured loan ratio (-4 bps q/q) Segment NPL ratios relatively resilient despite volatile environment: 2014 1Q15 1H15 9M15 NPL Ratio 1.2% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 2014 1Q15 1H15 9M15 Restructured Loan Ratio Watch Loan Ratio slight uptick in consumer and SME offset by decreasing trend in corporate cards impacted by market conditions and tail end of installment regulation NPL Ratio by Segment and Product 4.8% 4.7% 2.2% by segment 4.7% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 2.3% 5.1% 5.1% 2.4% 2.2% excl. 2.0% 1.9% one-off entry in 1Q 9M14 2014 1H15 9M15 Consumer SME Corp&Comm 5.9% 3.6% Credit Cards 6.2% 4.0% 6.9% 7.2% 5.0% 5.4% 1H14 2014 1H15 9M15 YKB Sector Conservative underwriting approach: 26% of GPL volume to payroll customers; 68% pre-approved to existing clients 40% of SME loan volume to YKB merchants Decreased share of micro SME in total SME loan book Conservative approach to approval ratios continuing 18 Notes: NPL ratio for credit cards includes retail + business cards. NPL ratio for sector based on BRSA weekly data as of 2 Oct 15 SME NPL ratio based on YKB s internal SME definition of companies with <10 mln $ annual turnover and <3 mln $ loan volume Micro SME: risk < TL500k
Comfortable coverage level; declining cost of risk NPL Coverage Generic provisions / NPL Specific provisions / NPL Cost of Risk 1 (Cumulative, net of collections) Total Specific Asset Quality 115% 113% 110% 113% 114% 1.27% excl. card regulation 42% 42% 40% 41% 42% 1.11% 1.13% 1.21% 1.17% 1.36% 1.45% 1.43% 73% 71% 70% 72% 72% 0.95% 0.89% 0.93% 0.85% 0.95% 0.94% 0.91% 9M14 2014 1Q15 1H15 9M15 1Q14 1H14 9M14 2014 1Q15 1H15 9M15 Total NPL coverage 2 at 114%, specific coverage flat at 72% Total CoR (net off collections) at 1.43% incorporating TL 193 mln booking for card regulation in 9M15. Excluding regulatory impact, CoR at 1.27% Specific CoR at 0.91%, -3 bps vs 1H15 19 (1) Cost of Risk = (Total Loan Loss Provisions-Collections)/Total Gross Loans (2) Total NPL coverage = (Specific + Generic Provisions)/NPLs
«Core Bank»: increasing commercial effectiveness «New Bank»: contribution accelerating with further improvement potential Customer Acquisition Volumes «New Bank» contribution already visible Productivity (9M15 vs 2013) YKB above sector in productivity «Core Bank» increasing faster «New Bank» with further potential 2.7x 9M15: +512k (9M14: +310k) ~ 600K ~ 700K Loans 8% Core Bank (TL 136 bln) New Bank (TL 12 bln) Loans/Employee +33% 8,036 +39% 7,008 YKB Core Bank +44% 8,696 YKB New Bank generating.. ~70% of core bank productivity ~50% of core bank productivity 224K 220K 2012 2013 2014 2015E Addition of new customers contributing to volumes with ongoing potential in productivity Deposits 9% Core Bank (TL 121 bln) New Bank (TL 12 bln) YKB 7,195 Sector Deposits/Employee +31% +30% 6,249 YKB Core Bank YKB Core Bank +40% 7,713 2014 Hires 2014-15 Hires YKB New Bank generating.. ~80% of core bank productivity ~55% of core bank productivity YKB Sector YKB Core Bank 2014 Hires 2014-15 Hires 20 Note: Based on YKB s internal calculations, bank-only Sector based on BRSA weekly data as of 2 Oct 15
Capital levels impacted by peak of market volatility in Sep 15; normalization already evident in Nov 15 with ~70 bps improvement Capital Adequacy (Bank) +70bps in Nov 15 ~15% ~15% +70bps in Nov 15 14.0% 12.9% ~11% ~11% 10.5% 9.4% 1H15 CAR 9M15 1H15 Tier-1 Ratio 9M15 Excl. market impacts CAR down to 12.9% mainly due to market volatility In Nov 15, CAR already up by ~70bps vs Sep 15 due to normalizing market environment Current levels still comfortably above regulatory requirements (CAR>12%; Tier-1>6%) 21 Notes: Market impacts on CAR in 9M15: Currency: -140bps; MtM of AFS: -76bps ytd MtM of AFS under equity: 9M15:-TL922 mln, 1H15: -TL249 mln, 1Q15: TL 190 mln, YE14: TL 391 mln, As of Oct 15, down to TL -300 mln
2015 expectations Macro YKB 2014 2015 Scenario Guidance Current expectation GDP 2.9% ~2.5% Lending Above sector loan growth Inflation (eop) 8.2% ~8.0% Unemployment 10.4% 10.5% Funding Deposit growth aligned with loan growth CAD/GDP 5.9% 5.7% Banking sector Revenue NIM: Better/In line with sector Fees: Low double digit growth Slightly below in NIM compensated by better fees 2015 Scenario 2014 Old New Loan Growth 18% 17% 22% Deposit Growth 10% 15% 22% excl. FX impact 12% 9% Costs Improving cost/income, Investments continuing at a milder pace Weaker dynamic due to TL depreciation and fee rebates NIM -20 bps Flat Flat CoR Flat +30 bps +15 bps Asset Quality Better than sector evolution NPL inflows in line with expectations; weaker collections NPL Ratio +20 bps +40 bps +10 bps 22 Notes: Scenario based on YK Economic Research estimates current as of Nov 15 2014 figures based on realisations
Agenda Annex 23
Consolidated Balance Sheet Balance Sheet TL bln 1Q14 1H14 9M14 YE14 1Q15 1H15 9M15 1QΔ 2QΔ 3QΔ ytd y/y Assets Total Assets 168.8 170.6 182.0 195.0 215.5 223.8 247.8 11% 4% 11% 27% 36% Loans 103.3 108.7 115.8 125.5 135.5 142.8 153.7 8% 5% 8% 22% 33% Other Assets 5% Securities 21.8 21.8 24.2 25.4 29.9 30.5 33.4 17% 2% 9% 31% 38% TL Securities 14.9 14.9 17.1 18.3 22.5 22.9 23.8 23% 2% 4% 30% 40% Other IEAs 20% FC 37% FC Securities ($) 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.1-8% 0% 11% 2% 0% Deposits 90.4 96.1 102.5 107.6 119.7 126.1 136.3 11% 5% 8% 27% 33% Securities 13% Loans 62% TL 63% Borrowings 36.0 36.0 37.3 41.5 46.7 45.8 52.8 12% -2% 15% 27% 41% TL Borrowings 3.6 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.5 4.9 5% -2% -12% -9% -2% Loans Currency Composition FC Borrowings ($) 14.8 14.9 14.2 15.6 15.7 15.0 15.7 1% -5% 5% 1% 11% Shareholders' Equity 18.4 19.2 19.6 20.2 21.0 22.1 22.0 4% 5% 0% 9% 12% Assets Under Management 10.2 11.1 11.6 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.6 4% 3% 1% 9% 17% Loans/Assets 61% 64% 64% 64% 63% 64% 62% Liabilities Repos 4% Securities/Assets 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 14% 13% Borrowings/Liabilities 21% 21% 20% 21% 22% 20% 21% Loans/(Deposits+TL Bonds) (solo) 110% 108% 108% 112% 108% 110% 109% CAR - solo 14.4% 15.4% 15.0% 15.0% 14.3% 14.0% 12.9% Tier-I - solo 10.3% 11.4% 10.9% 10.9% 10.4% 10.5% 9.4% Leverage Ratio 8.2x 7.9x 8.3x 8.6x 9.2x 9.1x 10.3x Borrowings 21% Shareholders' Equity 9% Other 11% Deposits 55% FC 52% TL 48% Deposits Currency Composition 24 Note: Loans indicate performing loans Other interest earning assets (IEAs): include cash and balances with the Central Bank of Turkey, banks and other financial institutions, money markets, factoring receivables, financial lease receivables Other assets: include investments in associates, subsidiaries, joint ventures, hedging derivative financial assets, property and equipment, intangible assets, tax assets, assets held for resale and related to discontinued operations (net) and other Borrowings: include funds borrowed, marketable securities issued (net), subordinated loans Other liabilities: include retirement benefit obligations, insurance technical reserves, other provisions, hedging derivatives, deferred and current tax liability and other
Loan and Deposit Evolution TL bln 9M15 YKB 1Q vs 2014 Δ 2Q vs 1Q Δ 3Q vs 2Q Δ ytd Δ Private Banks Sector YKB Private Banks Sector YKB Private Banks Sector YKB Private Banks Total Loans 1 153.7 8% 6% 7% 5% 5% 6% 8% 5% 6% 22% 17% 20% 10.5% +24 +12 TL 97.1 7% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 4% 1% 2% 16% 11% 13% 10.4% +27 +12 FC ($) 18.6-2% -2% -1% 3% 2% 3% 2% -1% 1% 3% -1% 3% 10.7% +14 +9 Consumer Loans 28.8 6% 3% 4% 8% 3% 3% 6% 1% 1% 21% 8% 8% 9.9% +108 +42 Mortgages 12.6 5% 4% 5% 7% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 15% 12% 14% 9.7% +10-1 General Purpose 15.8 9% 3% 3% 9% 1% 1% 9% 0% 0% 30% 5% 5% 10.1% +199 +82 Credit Cards 19.4 2% -2% -2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 9% 6% 6% 21.4% +59-14 Companies 2 105.5 10% 8% 9% 5% 6% 7% 9% 6% 8% 26% 22% 25% 9.7% +8 +7 TL 48.9 9% 5% 7% 4% 8% 8% 2% 1% 2% 16% 15% 17% 8.8% -8-4 FC ($) 18.6-2% -2% -1% 3% 2% 3% 2% -1% 1% 3% -1% 3% 10.7% +14 +9 SME 3 48.3 10% 7% 4% 15% 6% 7% 7% 3% 3% 34% 17% 15% 13.8% +195 +42 Comm. Install. 12.0 9% 7% 7% 4% 6% 6% 1% 3% 4% 14% 17% 19% 6.4% -23-19 Total Deposits 136.3 11% 8% 7% 5% 4% 5% 8% 6% 6% 27% 19% 20% 10.5% +51 +14 TL 65.4 2% 1% 2% -3% -2% 0% 4% 2% 3% 4% 0% 5% 9.7% -33 +13 FC ($) 23.3 10% 5% 3% 11% 9% 9% -1% -3% -2% 21% 11% 10% 11.5% +147 +9 Customer 132.4 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 6% 8% 6% 6% 26% 20% 20% 11% +47 +21 Demand 24.4 14% 6% 6% 15% 11% 10% 12% 1% 1% 47% 19% 18% 10.7% +214 +102 TL Bonds 3.8 9% 0% -24% 2% 0% -4% 5% 0% 2% 17% -5% -4% 13.4% +238 +45 Repos 10.6 9% 0% -2% 0% 0% 15% 58% 12% 9% 71% 17% 15% 7.0% +228 +218 Borrowings 52.8 12% 0% 5% -2% 0% 10% 15% 8% 7% 27% 20% 23% Sector Market Share ytd Δ bps q/q Δ bps 25 Note: Balance sheet 3Q volumes for sector and private banks based on BRSA weekly data as of 2 Oct 15. FC-indexed loans included in TL loans Market share information as of 9M15 (1) Total performing loans (2) Total loans excluding consumer loans and credit cards (3) SME definition: <TL 40 mln annual turnover as per BRSA. YKB internal SME definition: <US$ 10 mln annual turnover (share of TL: 95%)
Consolidated Income Statement 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 q/q y/y 9M14 9M15 y/y Total Revenues 1,938 2,149 2,201 2,466 2,409 2,565 2,352-8% 7% 6,288 7,326 17% Core Revenues 1,862 2,090 2,067 2,297 2,150 2,526 2,466-2% 19% 6,019 7,141 19% Net Interest Income 1,351 1,485 1,480 1,656 1,518 1,838 1,763-4% 19% 4,317 5,119 19% Fees & Commissions 510 605 587 641 632 688 703 2% 20% 1,702 2,022 19% Other Revenues 76 59 134 169 260 39-114 n.m n.m 269 184-31% Other income 209 209 95 152 276 169 120-29% 27% 513 565 10% o/w collections 135 94 38 11 59 41 22-46% -43% 267 122-54% o/w generic provision reversals 46 1 0 0 0 0 0 n.m n.m 47 0 n.m o/w pension fund reversal 0 51 0 61 0 44 0 n.m n.m 51 44-14% o/w NPL sale 0 16 28 8 0 0 0 n.m n.m 44 0 n.m o/w others 28 48 28 72 217 84 98 17% 251% 104 399 284% Trading -135-158 39 17-18 -134-234 76% -702% -254-386 n.m Dividend 2 7 0 0 3 3 0 n.m n.m 9 6-37% Operating Costs 935 1,030 1,009 1,173 1,184 1,228 1,249 2% 24% 2,974 3,661 23% Operating Income 1,003 1,119 1,192 1,293 1,225 1,336 1,103-17% -7% 3,314 3,665 11% Provisions 463 443 515 518 571 731 650-11% 26% 1,421 1,953 37% Specific Provisions 343 322 374 282 394 403 416 3% 11% 1,039 1,213 17% Generic Provisions 88 94 114 172 144 235 243 3% 113% 296 622 110% Other Provisions 32 27 27 64 33 93-9 -109% -132% 86 117 37% Pre-tax Income 540 676 677 775 655 605 453-25% -33% 1,893 1,712-10% Net Income 429 501 513 614 501 455 318-30% -38% 1,442 1,274-12% 26
Bank-Only Income Statement Restated financials due to updated IAS 27 application 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 q/q y/y 9M14 9M15 y/y Total Revenues 1,809 2,085 2,098 2,300 2,394 2,231-7% 6% 5,992 6,925 16% Core Revenues 1,738 1,968 1,947 2,016 2,429 2,344-4% 20% 5,653 6,788 20% Net Interest Income 1,258 1,393 1,397 1,423 1,778 1,677-6% 20% 4,048 4,877 20% Fees & Commissions 480 575 550 593 651 667 2% 21% 1,605 1,911 19% Other Revenues 71 117 152 284-35 -112 n.m n.m 340 137-60% Other income 281 297 171 351 231 201-13% 18% 749 784 5% o/w collections 135 94 38 59 41 22-46% -43% 267 122-54% o/w generic provision reversals 46 1 0 0 0 0 n.m n.m 47 0 n.m o/w pension fund reversal 0 51 0 0 44 0 n.m n.m 51 44-14% o/w NPL sale 0 16 28 0 0 0 n.m n.m 44 0 n.m o/w profit/(loss) of associates& jv.s accounted for using equity method 97 97 85 90 87 101 15% 18% 279 278 0% o/w others 4 38 19 202 59 79 n.m n.m 61 340 456% Trading -213-180 -19-69 -267-314 n.m n.m -412-649 58% Dividend 2 0 0 2 1 0 n.m n.m 2 3 20% Operating Costs 875 968 982 1,116 1,166 1,183 1% 20% 2,826 3,466 23% Operating Income 934 1,117 1,116 1,184 1,228 1,048-15% -6% 3,167 3,460 9% Provisions 434 435 490 550 695 621-11% 27% 1,359 1,867 37% Specific Provisions 318 314 352 381 378 398 5% 13% 984 1,157 18% Generic Provisions 86 93 112 138 225 232 3% 108% 290 595 105% Other Provisions 31 27 27 32 92-10 -111% -137% 85 114 35% Pre-tax Income 500 683 626 634 532 427-20% -32% 1,808 1,593-12% Net Income 412 525 490 501 407 318-22% -35% 1,427 1,226-14% As of 1H15, Yapı Kredi has revised its accounting methodology to use updated IAS 27. Accordingly, equity method is applied for reporting of investments in subsidiaries, associates and joint ventures Therefore, in order to ensure comparability, backward restatement has been carried out This revision only impacts bank-only financials 27
Post-tax P&L impacted by significant one-offs in 9M15 T. RoAE at 10.6% excl. one-offs and net income growth +5% y/y Net Income (excl. one-offs) Cost/Income (excl. one-offs) 9M14 9M15 Δ Net Income 1,442 1,274-12% Fixed asset revaluation impact 0-104 NPL sales -35 0 Fee rebates 44 130 One-off specific provisions 0 84 Additional generic provisions 53 193 Net Income excl. one-offs 1,504 1,577 5% excl. one-offs +5% 1,504 1,577 1,442 1,274 47.3% 46.7% 50.0% 48.4% 9M14 9M15 9M14 9M15 T. ROAE 11.2% 8.6% -261 Cost/Income excl. one-offs Cost/Income T. ROAE excl. one-offs 11.7% 10.6% -110 Tangible ROAE (excl. one-offs) NIM Cost/Income 47.3% 50.0% 268 Cost/Income excl. one-offs 46.7% 48.4% 170 Reported NII 4,317 5,119 19% 11.7% 10.6% NIM -24.5 bps NIM adj. by swaps -23.8 bps 3.49% 3.25% 2.88% 2.64% Swap costs 700 896 28% Swap cost adj. NII 3,617 4,223 17% 11.2% 8.6% NIM 3.49% 3.25% -24.5 NIM adj. by swaps 2.88% 2.64% -23.8 9M14 9M15 9M14 9M15 9M14 9M15 28 Notes: Currency depreciation impact calculated bearing 10% of total cost base in FX; USD/TL average depreciation of 25% in 9M15; 15% in 9M14 All relevant one-off impacts are net-off by 20% corporate tax
Securities Securities/Assets Composition by Currency (TL bln) Composition by Type 24.2 25.4 30.5 33.4 Trading 6% 5% 7% 12% 16% 16% 13% 13% 15% 14% 14% 13% TL 71% 72% 75% 71% HTM 23% 22% 20% 20% 55% FRN 55% FRN 52% FRN 58% FRN FC 29% 28% 2% FRN 2% FRN 25% 29% 0.2% FRN 2.0% FRN AFS 71% 73% 73% 68% 1H14 2014 1H15 9M15 9M14 2014 1H15 9M15 Turkey Sovereign Bond Rates 1 TL 8.2% 8.2% 9.8% 11.6% 9M14 2014 1H15 9M15 YKB Sector FC 5.6% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% Share of securities in total assets at 13% (vs 14% sector) Share of TL securities in total at 71% (flat vs 71% in 9M14), down 4 pp q/q CPI-linkers at TL 7.1 bln (26% of total securities) M-t-m unrealised loss under equity at TL -922 mln for 9M15; as of Oct 15 down to TL -300 mln (1H15: TL -249mln, 1Q15: TL 190mln, YE14: TL 391mln, 9M14: TL 140mln, YE13: TL -118 mln) 29 Notes: Sector based on BRSA monthly data as of Sep 15 AFS: Available for Sale HTM: Held to Maturity FRN: Floating Rate Notes CPI: Consumer price index inflation (1) TL Bond rate indicates 2 year benchmark bond rate. FC bond rate indicates 30 year USD Eurobond Rate
International Subs Domestic Subs Subsidiaries Subsidiaries YK Leasing Revenues (mln TL) 207 Revenues (y/y growth) 12% RoE 14% Sector Positioning #1 in total transaction volume (18.1% market share) Contribution of Subsidiaries 2 to Assets YK Factoring 61-17% 12% #1 in total factoring volume (19.4% market share) Subs 8% YK Invest 111-1% 16% #2 in equity transaction volume (7.2% market share) Bank 92% YK Asset Management 40 24% 110% #2 in mutual funds (18.1% market share) Highest credit rating in its sector 1 to Net Income YK Azerbaijan 28 mln US$ -22% -2% US$ 356 mln total assets Subs 17% YK Moscow 8 mln US$ -25% 11% US$ 173 mln total assets Bank 83% YK Nederland 26 mln US$ -20% 6% US$ 2.0 bln total assets 30 Note: Revenues in TL unless otherwise stated. All market shares as of 1H15 (1) YK Asset Management: Fitch Ratings upgraded YK Portföy (YKP) in Mar 13 from M2+ to M1+ and affirmed in Jun 15. YK Asset Management is the only institution in Turkey to reach this level (2) Including consolidation eliminations
Domestic International Borrowings: 21% of total liabilities Borrowings Syndications Securitisations Subordinated Loans Foreign Currency Bonds / Bills Covered Bond Multilateral Loans ~ US$ 2.6 bln outstanding Apr 15: US$ 513 mln & 835 mln, Libor/Euribor+0.70%&0.80p.a. all-in cost for 364 days & 367 days, respectively. 48 banks from 15 countries Sep 15: US$ 295 mln and 810.5 mln, Libor /Euribor+ 0.75% p.a. all-in cost, 367 days. Participation of 38 banks from 17 countries 3Q15 ~ US$ 2.3 bln outstanding Aug 11: US$ 225 mln and 130 mln, 4 unwrapped notes, 5 years (outstanding:~us$ 191 mln) Sep 11: 75 mln, 1 unwrapped note, 12 years (outstanding: ~US$ 76 mln) Jul 13: US$ 355 mln and 115 mln, 5 unwrapped notes, 5-13 years (outstanding: ~US$ 493 mln) Oct 14: US$ 550 mln, 20 years (outstanding: ~US$ 550 mln) Mar 15: US$ 100 mln, 5 years & US$ 316 mln, 10 years (outstanding: US$ 416 mln) Jul 15: US$ 575 mln, 5-12 years (outstanding: US$ 575 mln) 3Q15 ~US$ 3.0 bln outstanding Jun 07: 200 mln, 10NC5, Euribor+2.78% p.a. Dec 12: US$ 1.0 bln market transaction, 10 years, 5.5% (coupon rate) Jan 13: US$ 585 mln, 10NC5, 5.7% fixed rate Basel III Compliant Dec 13: US$ 470 mln, 10NC5, 6.55% Basel III Compliant (midswap+4.88% after the first 5 years) US$ 750 mln Loan Participation Note (LPN) Oct 10: 5.1875% (coupon rate), 5 years US$ 2.0 bln Eurobonds Issuance Feb 12: US$ 500 mln, 6.75% (coupon rate), 5 years Jan 13: US$ 500 mln, 4.00% (coupon rate), 7 years Dec 13: US$ 500 mln, 5.25% (coupon rate), 5 years Oct 14: US$ 550 mln, 5.125% (coupon rate), 5 years TL 458 mln first tranche Nov 12: SME-backed with maturity between 3-5 years; highest Moody s rating (A3) for Turkish bonds ~US$ 640 mln outstanding EIB Loan - 2008/2012: US$ 102 mln and 300 mln and TL 187 mln, 5-15 years (outstanding: ~US$ 366 mln) EBRD Loan - 2011/2013: US$ 55 mln and 30 mln, 5 years (outstanding: ~US$ 76 mln) CEB Loan - 2011/2014: US$ 39 mln and 100 mln (outstanding: ~US$ 158 mln) EFIL Loan 2008/2011: US$ 59 mln and 13 mln (outstanding: ~US$ 37 mln) 31 Local Currency Bonds / Bills TL 2.5 bln total (original public offering amount) Nov 14: TL 114 mln, 11.70% compound rate, 392 days maturity Dec 14: TL 68 mln, 10.45% compound rate, 420 days maturity Feb 15: TL 6 mln, 11.82% compound rate, 392 days maturity Mar 15: TL 9 mln, 10.65% compound rate, 420 days maturity Jun 15: TL 447 mln, 10.37% compound rate, 173 days maturity Sep 15: TL 876 mln, 11.44% compound rate, 179 days maturity Sep 15: TL 170 mln, 12.12% compound rate, 392 days maturity Oct 15: TL 576 mln, 10.72% compound rate, 179 days maturity Nov 15: TL 613 mln, 10.77% compound rate, 176 days maturity Nov 15: TL 116 mln, 10.97% compound rate, 392 days maturity 3Q15 3Q15 4Q15 4Q15 4Q15
Financial Highlights (in US$, 9M15) Total Assets (bln) 24.3 Revenues (mln) 19,309 Established in 1926, Turkey's largest industrial and services group in terms of turnover and exports 381 th largest company in the world 1 Leading positions with strong competitive advantages in energy, automotive, consumer durables, finance, food, retailing and tourism sectors Net Income (mln) 834 Number of Employees 94,513 Total Sales/GDP Total Exports/Turkey s Exports 8% 9% Market Capitalisation (bln) 11.0 Revenue Composition (9M15) Market Positions 2 Finance 15% Durables 10% Other 7% Automotive 24% Energy 44% Sole petroleum refiner in Turkey #1 in LPG distribution (29% market share) #2 in petroleum products distribution (19% market share) #1 in total automotive (23% market share) #3 in passenger cars (14% market share) #1 in commercial vehicles (49% market share) #1 in white goods (50% market share) (refrigerators, washing machines, ovens, air conditioners) #5 in total banking assets among private banks (9.6% market share) #1 in leasing; #1 in factoring and #2 mutual funds 32 Source: Koç Group investor relations website, presentations and publicly available financials Market shares as of YE14. Market capitalisation as of 3 Nov 15, calculated as share price * paid-in capital. Free float: 22.35% (1) According to Fortune Global 500 as of Mar15 (2) As of YE14
Financial Highlights (in US$, 9M15) Total Assets (bln) 983 Loans (bln) 533 Deposits and Debt Securities Issued (bln) 661 Roots dating back to 1473. Created through the merger of 9 of Italy's largest banks and the subsequent combination with the German HVB Group and the Italian Capitalia Group A major international financial institution based in Italy with operations in 17 countries and 50 financial markets - Leader in Austria with 14.2% market share - #2 in Italy with 12.3% market share - #3 in Germany with 2.4% market share Revenues (mln) 5,994 Net Income (mln) 570 Number of Branches 7,055 Number of Employees 146,366 1 Largest international banking network in the CEE region with more than 4 thousand branches and outlets - Leader in Bosnia, Bulgaria and Croatia - In the Top 5 in Serbia, Slovakia, Turkey, Czech Rep., Poland - In the Top 10 in Romania, Baltics, Russia, Slovenia, Hungary and Ukraine Azerbaijan Bosnia-H. Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Russia Slovakia Slovenia Serbia Turkey Ukraine Common Equity Tier I Ratio 10.5% Total Capital Ratio 14.2% Market Capitalisation (bln) 37.0 2 Revenue Composition Germany 18% Poland 7% Austria 9% CEE 16% Italy 50% Austria 3% Germany 6% Branch Composition CEE 30% Italy 48% Poland 12% Others 1% Germany 13% Employee Composition Poland 13% CEE 34% Italy 33% Austria 6% Others 1% 33 Source: Unicredit Group investor relations website, presentations and publicly available financials. Market shares as of YE14 EUR/US$: 1.1. Market capitalisation as of 3 Nov 15, calculated as share price * paid-in capital. Free float : ~%70 (1) Figures include branches of Koç Financial Services calculated at 100% (2) As of 3 Nov 15
Macro Turkey Turkey: A large and dynamic country with solid growth potential and resilient fundamentals Turkey TR 2014 EU 2014 Europe s 8 th largest economy 1 and a member of G20 Young, dynamic, large and growing population Sovereign ratings of Baa3/BB+/BBB- by Moody s/ S&P/Fitch. First investment grade achieved in Nov 12 (Fitch). Second investment grade achieved in May 13 (Moody s) Population (mln) 78 507 Median Age 30 43 Population Growth (CAGR 2000-2014) 1.4% 0.4% GDP ( bln) 602 13,516 World Ranking 18 - Per Capita GDP ( ) 7,784 26,638 World Ranking 63 1 - Converging economy with solid growth potential Focus on achieving balanced growth driven by both consumption and net exports Strong fiscal discipline with low public debt/gdp Improving CAD/GDP due to lower oil prices and domestic demand 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F GDP Growth 8.8% 2.2% 4.2% 2.9% ~2.5% Inflation (eop) 10.4% 6.2% 7.4% 8.2% 8.1% Benchmark Rate (eop) 11.0% 6.2% 8.7% 8.5% 11.0% Unemployment 9.1% 8.4% 9.0% 10.4% 10.5% CAD/GDP 9.9% 6.1% 7.9% 5.9% 5.7% o/w energy 6.1% 6.6% 6.0% 6.1% 8.2% Public Debt/GDP 40% 38% 37% 35% - Private Debt/GDP 80% 82% 100% 105% - Budget deficit/gdp -1.3% -2.0% -1.2% -1.3% - 2 34 Source: Turkstat, Eurostat (for population, median age, population growth, GDP, per capita GDP, unemployment), IMF (for world ranking), CBRT (inflation), Bloomberg (benchmark), Turkstat and CBRT (for CAD/GDP), Treasury and Turkstat (public debt/gdp), CBRT, BRSA, Treasury and Turkstat (private debt/gdp) Notes: EU indicates EU27 countries (source: population and macro data based on Turkish Statistical Institute). 2015F based on YKB Economic Research (1) Based on Turkish Statistical Institute and IMF World Economic Outlook (2) Total private debt/gdp of 105% includes domestic debt of 65% (o/w Households 20%, Companies 45%) and external debt of companies & financial institutions of 49%
Despite solid growth in recent years, Turkish banking sector still underpenetrated in household lending Banking Sector Penetration Branches Per Million Inhabitants (1H15) Total Loans 1 /GDP Corporate Loans/GDP 402 145 118% 82% 67% 59% 59% 55% 49% 47% 43% 38% 29% 16% EU-27 Turkey 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Loans+Deposits)/GDP (1H15) Mortgages/GDP 42% Loans to Households 2 /GDP 55% 225% 137% 23% 20% 8% 7% 7% 38% 35% 26% 20% 15% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 EU-27 Turkey Turkey EU-27 S.Africa India Poland Brazil 35 Source: European Central Bank, BRSA, CBRT, Turkstat, ML database for India, Brazil, S.Africa Note: Loan data for all countries based on 2014 actual figures (1) Excluding lending to credit institutions (2) Including housing loans, consumer lending and other household lending (including CC, excluding SMEs)
Challenges 2015 Developments Banking Sector Healthy banking sector, resilient against external shocks and supporting economic growth Well regulated (BRSA est. in 2001) Banking Sector Best practices in technology: payment systems and qualified workforce High technology usage Healthy profitability albeit impacted by regulation and competition Sound asset quality, liquidity and capitalisation Banking Sector 2007 2012 2013 2014 1H15 9M15 2015F Banks # 46 46 48 48 48 48 48 Branches # 7,618 10,234 11,023 11,223 11,276 11,280 - Loan Growth 30% 15% 33% 18% 13% 6% 22% Deposit Growth 27% 11% 24% 10% 13% 6% 22% excl. FX impact 12% 9% Regulatory pressure on: - provisioning (credit card generic provisions) - costs (fee rebates) - capital (alignment to B3 with still higher RWs on consumer loans and credit cards) Interest rate volatility Currency depreciation Pricing competition and maturity of funding sources Loans/GDP 32% 53% 64% 67% 69% 73% 75% Deposits/GDP 42% 54% 61% 60% 61% 65% 66% Loans/Assets 48% 58% 61% 62% 63% 62% 66% Deposits/Assets 62% 59% 58% 56% 56% 55% 59% NIM 5.0% 4.2% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.6% NPL Ratio 3.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 1 CAR 17.4% 17.3% 14.6% 15.7% 14.8% 14.1% - ROAE 24.6% 15.8% 13.3% 12.8% 12.1% 10.9% - ROAA 2.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% - 36 Source: Turkish Banks Association (for bank and branch numbers), BRSA for banking sector data (including BS, P&L, KPIs, Turkstat for GDP data). 2015 based on YKB forecasts Notes: Minimum total CAR at 8% (threshold for opening branches minimum 12% CAR), T1 at 6%, core T1 at 4.5% Leverage regulation effective as of Jan 14; yet the minimum of 3% applicable as of Jan 15 (1) Based on BRSA monthly financials; indicating deposit banks
Ratings Agency View YKB only bank with affirmed ratings during recent Fitch and Moody s review Credit Ratings Yapı Kredi Garanti Akbank Long-Term Foreign Currency Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Baa3 (affirmed) Baa3 (affirmed) Baa3 (affirmed) Negative Negative Negative Long-Term Local Currency Baa3 (affirmed) Baa3 Baa3 Negative Negative Negative Moody s Rating Decision on 3 Jun 14 Moody s reviewed the ratings and outlook of 11 Turkish banks on 3 Jun 14 YKB was the only bank with affirmed ratings, others downgraded Işbank Baa3 (affirmed) Negative Baa3 Negative Halkbank Baa3 (affirmed) Negative Baa3 Negative Vakıfbank Baa3 (affirmed) Negative Baa3 Negative Yapı Kredi BB+ Negative BB+ Negative Fitch Rating Decision on 16 Jun 15 Yapı Kredi BBB (affirmed) Stable (upgraded) BBB (affirmed) Stable (upgraded) Fitch reviewed the ratings 4 largest Turkish Private Banks YKB is two notches above the peers Garanti Akbank Işbank BBB- BBB- BBB- Stable Stable Stable BBB- BBB- BBB- Stable Stable Stable According to Fitch: «Asset quality problem recognition is somewhat more robust at YKB and the Bank benefits from management and potential support from UniCredit.. The largest 20 exposures are slightly lower at YKB Foreign currency risk at YKB are lower due to limited FX repo funding and the potential for liquidity support from UniCredit» 37
Contact Investor Relations Yapı Kredi Head Office Yapı Kredi Plaza D Blok Levent 34330 Istanbul - TURKEY Tel: +90 (212) 339 73 23 Email: yapikredi_investorrelations@yapikredi.com.tr Web: http://www.yapikredi.com.tr/en/investor-relations Strong Analyst Coverage 35 Equity Analysts 10 Fixed Income Analysts > 800 fixed income meetings > 2,400 equity meetings and participation in >130 conferences / roadshows in US, UK, Europe, Middle-East and Asia over the past ~4 years 38