Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q1:2018 Faizel Mohammed Stats SA
discouraged work seekers The labour market Q1:2018 37,7 million People of working age in South Africa (15 64 year olds) Labour force 22,4 million Not Economically Active* 15,3 million Employed Unemployed 16,4 6,0 M M 2,8 M Other NEA 12,5 M Employed Unemployed South Africa s official unemployment rate stands at 26,7% Unchanged btw Q4 2017 and Q1 2018 ILO hierarchy Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two groups at the same time
Labour Force Not Economically Active 2017 Q4 to 2018 Q1 Changes 40M There was an increase of 153 000 people of working age in South Africa (15 64 year olds) between Q4:2017 and Q1:2018 35M 30M Other Not Economically Active - 403 000 q/q 25M 20M 15M Discouraged work seekers + 249 000 q/q Unemployed + 100 000 q/q 10M 5M Employed + 206 000 q/q 0M 2008 Q1 2018
QLFS Q1:2018 EMPLOYMENT & LABOUR MARKET RATES
Labour market dashboard Q1:2018 16,4 M Number of employed 15 M 10 M 5 M 14,4 M The number of employed people increased from 14,4 million in Q1:2008 to 16,4 million in Q1:2018. 0 M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Absorption rate 50% 45% 40% 45,8% Absorption rate increased in Q1:2018 to 43,5% (q/q) and has not recovered to level of 45,8% since 2008 43,5% 35% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 *Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is employed. Labour force participation rate* 65% 60% 55% 59,6% 60,5% The labour force participation rate increased by 0,5 percentage points to 59,3% in Q1:2018 from Q4 2017. 58,8% 59,3% 50% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 *Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or unemployed.
Labour market rates by education level Labour market rates vary significantly depending on education level Change Percentage points Q4 2017 to Q1 2018 Unemployment 26,7% rate Absorption 43,5% rate Participation 59,3% rate 31,1% -0,2 34,3% 1,4 49,8% 1,9 28,2% 0,7 48,0% -2,6 66,8% -2,9 7,9% 1,3 82,2% -0,5 89,2% 0,7 15,6% -1,4 71,3% 0,5 84,5% -0,9
Labour market rates by age group The unemployment rate for those aged 25-34 is double that of the 45-54 year olds. Change Percentage points Q4 2017 to Q1 2018 15-64 yrs 26,7% 43,5% 59,3% Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate 55-64 yrs 8,9% 0,6 41,8% 0,7 45,8% 1,0 45-54 yrs 16,1% 0,5 62,1% 0,2 74,0% 0,7 35-44 yrs 20,9% 0,0 64,0% 0,7 80,9% 0,8 25-34 yrs 33,0% -0,4 49,4% 0,8 73,8% 0,9 15-24 yrs 52,4% 1,3 12,2% -0,5 25,6% -0,3
Unemployment rate by education level and age group The unemployment rate among the youth is higher irrespective of education level Total 15 24 52,4% years 25 33,0% 34 years 17,6% 35 64 years Change Percentage points Q4 2017 to Q1 2018 Less than matric 53,6% 0,0 39,0% -0,6 22,7% 0,5 Matric 53,3% 2,7 33,0% 0,7 16,0% -0,1 Graduates 33,5% 7,5 10,2% -0,5 4,7% 1,0 Other tertiary 44,8% 2,0 23,3% -2,4 8,1% -1,0
QLFS Q1:2018 PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET)
Not in Employment, Education or Training Work Education NEET Those young people (15-24 years) who are categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both work and education. Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific working-age population
32,4% Not in Employment, Education or Training NEET (15-24 years) by sex Approx. 3,3 million (32,4%) out of 10,3 million young people aged 15-24, were not in employment, education or training. The overall NEET rate remained unchanged in Q1: 2018 compared to Q1: 2017 at 32,4% 2018 Q1 29,6% 35,3% Male NEET Down 0,9 of a Percentage Point Female NEET Up 1,0 Percentage Point 2017 Q1 30,5% 34,3% -5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0
Not in Employment, Education or Training : Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year Change Q1 2017 Q1 2018) ( ) Y/Y Change NC NW KZN 37,4% 37,0% 36,4% (-1,8) (+1,8) (0,0) MP 35,9% (+0,2) EC 34,4% (+0,3) RSA 32,4% (0,0) GP LP FS 29,4% 29,1% 28,6% (-0,9) (+2,5) (-2,2) WC 26,9% (-1,2)
QLFS Q1:2018 EMPLOYMENT
Employment Q1:2018- Q/Q changes 16,4m Of people aged 15 64 years were employed in Q1:2018 (+206 000 q/q) Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Increased by Increased by Increased by Decreased by 111 000 93 000 5 000-3 000 Formal Sector (Non agricultural) Informal Sector (Non agricultural) Private households Agriculture (11,4 million jobs) (2,9 million jobs) (1,3 million jobs) (847 000 jobs)
Employment and GDP share per industry Employment shares, Q1:2018 Share of GDP (Q4: 2017) Construction, Trade, Agriculture and Services have higher employment shares relative to their GDP contribution Services Trade Finance 14,7% 20,0% 23,1% 22,0% 16,8% 21,8% Manufacturing Construction Private households Transport Agriculture Mining Utilities Other 11,3% 8,7% 7,8% 5,9% 5,2% 2,4% 0,9% 0,1% 0 5 10 15 20 25 13,8% 3,8% 9,6% 1,6% 8,3% 2,3%
Employment changes by industry The biggest employment gains were recorded in the Services, Manufacturing and Construction industries, quarter-to-quarter Quarter-to-quarter change ( 000) Year-on-year change ( 000) Services 95 Services 216 Manufacturing 58 Trade 69 Construction 40 Manufacturing 59 Trade 36 Finance 24 Finance 30 Utilities -2 Private households 5 Transport -4 Agriculture -3 Agriculture -28 Utilities -6 Private households -45 Mining -14 Mining -50 Transport -41 Construction -75
Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Gains Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q 95 000 58 000 40 000 36 000 SERVICES MANUFACTURING CONSTRUCTION TRADE Mainly driven by gains in: Mainly driven by gains in: Mainly driven by gains in: Mainly driven by gains in: Health and social work Public administration and defence activities Activities of membership organisations, NEC. Recreational, cultural and sporting activities Manufacture of basic metals Manufacture of coke, chemicals, rubber and plastic Manufacture of textiles, clothing and leather goods Building installation Wholesale trade Retail trade
Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Losses Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q - 41 000-14 000-6 000 Transport Mining Utilities Mainly driven by losses in: Other land transport. Railway transport Air transport Mainly driven by losses in: Mining of : Non-ferrous metal ores Stone quarrying, clay and sandpits Diamonds Mainly driven by losses in: Collection, purification and distribution of water Manufacture of gas
Employment share by occupation, Q1:2018 Elementary 23,3% Sales and services Craft and related trade Clerk Manager Technician Plant and machine 12,2% 10,7% 8,7% 8,6% 8,3% 16,4% Close to a third of all people employed in Q1:2018 were employed in elementary and domestic work occupations Domestic worker Professional 6,1% 5,3% Skilled agriculture 0,4% Other
Formal sector employment 12 M 10 M 9,9 M 11,4 M 11,2 M 8 M 6 M 4 M Formal sector employment has shown an Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend increasing from 9,9 million in upward trend increasing from 9,9 million in Formal Q1:2008 Q1:2008 sector 11,4 to employment million in 11,4 million decreased Q1:2018 in Q3:2017by 144 000 to 11,2 million quarter-to-quarter 2 M 0 M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Informal sector employment 12 M 10 M 8 M Informal sector employment has increased from 2,4 million in Q1:2008 to 2,9 million in Q1:2018 6 M 4 M 2 M 2,4 M 2,9 M 2,8 M 0 M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
QLFS Q1:2018 UNEMPLOYMENT
Labour market dashboard 8 M 7 M 6 M 5 M 4 M 3 M 2 M 1 M Number of unemployed people 4,4 M 5,9 M The number of unemployed people in South Africa increased from 4,4 million in Q1:2008 to 6,0 million in Q1:2018 6,0 M 0 M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 80% 60% 40% Long term unemployment* 57,0% 68,5% The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from 57,0% in Q1:2008 to 68,5% in Q1:2018 20% * Unemployed for a year or longer 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Q1:2018 Q1:2018 Official Unemployment Rate 26,7% (0,0% Point Change Q/Q) Expanded Unemployment Rate 36,7% (+0,4 % Point Change Q/Q) 45% 45% 40% 40% 40,6% 35% 35% 30,9% SA: 36,7% 33,2% 30% 25% 23,2% 28,8% SA: 26,7% 25,1% 30% 25% 9,5 million people were unemployed in Q1:2018 An increase of 264 000 q/q 20% 15% 6,0 million people were unemployed in Q1:2018 An increase of 100 000 q/q 20% 15% Expanded Definition includes the following 10% 10% - Official unemployment (searched and available) 6,0 M 5% 5% - Available to work but are/or Discouraged work-seekers 2,8 M 0% Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 0% Have other reasons for not searching 0,7 M Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Official unemployment rate by population group and sex Unemployment rate by Population group Male unemployment rate By Population Group Black women are the most vulnerable with unemployment rate of over 30%. Female Unemployment Rate by Population Group Both sexes 26,7% 26,7% 25,1% 24,8% 28,8% 29,0% Black women are the most vulnerable with unemployment rate of over 30%. Black African 30,1% 30,0% 27,9% 28,0% 32,6% 32,4% Coloured 22,7% 23,5% 24,3% 23,3% 21,0% 23,8% Indian/Asian 11,8% 9,2% 11,5% 9,0% 12,5% 9,6% White 6,9% 6,7% 6,8% 5,1% 7,1% 8,8% Q1:2018 Q4:2017
Expanded unemployment rate by population group and sex Expanded unemployment rate by population group Male expanded unemployment rate Female Unemployment Rate by Population Group Both sexes 36,7% 36,3% 33,2% 32,8% 40,6% 40,3% Black African 41,0% 40,7% 37,0% 37,0% 45,4% 44,8% Coloured Indian/Asian 18,2% 14,9% 27,5% 29,1% 15,9% 13,1% 28,4% 28,0% Irrespective of 26,6% sex Black 30,3% Africans and Coloured population 21,9% groups remain vulnerable in the 18,2% labour market White 9,8% 8,5% 8,8% 6,1% 11,0% 11,6% Q1:2018 Q4:2017
Provincial unemployment rate: Official Q1: 2018 Only two provinces (GP and KZN) showed decreases in their unemployment rate between Q4 2017 and Q1 2018 Eastern Cape 35,6% (+0,5) ( ) Q/Q Change Free State Mpumalanga 32,8% 32,4% (+0,2) (+3,5) Northern Cape Gauteng 29,5% 28,6% (+2,4) (-0,5) South Africa North West 26,7% 25,8% (0,0) (+1,9) KwaZulu Natal 22,3% (-1,8) Limpopo Western Cape 19,9% 19,7% (+0,3) (+0,2) 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0
Provincial unemployment rate: Official vs Expanded Q1: 2018 EC has the highest unemployment rate based on either the official or expanded definition Limpopo, KZN and NW Provinces all have more than 15% points difference between thier expanded and official definitions Eastern Cape Official 35,6% Expanded 46,0% Free State 32,8% 38,4% Mpumalanga 32,4% 42,5% Northern Cape 29,5% 41,0% Gauteng 28,6% 33,6% South Africa 26,7% 36,7% North West 25,8% 15,9% Point Difference 41,8% KwaZulu Natal 22,3% 18,3% Point Difference 40,6% Limpopo 19,9% 17,7% Point Difference 37,6% Western Cape 19,7% 22,5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
QLFS Q1:2018 UNDERSTANDING NON-ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE (NEA)
NEA Non-economically active (NEA) 15,3 million people aged 15 64 years were not economically active. A decrease of 154 000 q/q 5 main reasons for NEA Q4 2017 to Q1 2018 % Change Q4 2017 to Q1 2018 Change in Figures M Too old/young to work; 9,4% Illness/disability; 10,2% Home-maker 16,5% No Change No Change Down 0,8 % Point Quarter-on-quarter changes Thousand Student -204 Homemaker -149 Illness/disability -15 Too young/too old to work -16 Discouraged work seekers 249 Other -19 M M 15,3 M M Discouraged work seekers 18,2% Up 1,8 % Point Student 40,1% Down 0,9 % Point
RECAP Q1:2018 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EMPLOYMENT GAINS EMPLOYMENT LOSSES NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION AND TRAINING Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 26,7% while absorption rate and labour force participation rate increased by 0,4 and 0,5 of a percentage point respectively Largest employment gains were recorded in Community and social services (95 000), Manufacturing (58 000) and Construction (40 000). Employment losses were observed in Transport (41 000), Mining (14 000), Utilities (6 000) and Agriculture (3 000) Of the 10,3 million persons aged (15-24 years) 32,4% were not in employment, education or training.
QLFS Q1:2018 THANK YOU