BUY CMP 129.45 Target Price 148.00 HINDUSTAN ZINC LIMITED Result Update: Q3 FY14 JANUARY 20 th 2014 ISIN: INE267A01025 Index Details Stock Data Sector Metals (Zinc) BSE Code 500188 Face Value 2.00 52wk. High / Low (Rs.) 140.45/94.00 Volume (2wk. Avg. Q.) 221000 Market Cap (Rs. in mn.) 546965.09 Annual Estimated Results (A*: Actual / E*: Estimated) YEARS FY13A FY14E FY15E Net Sales 126998.40 140989.43 153678.48 EBITDA 84962.60 92983.11 100554.54 Net Profit 68994.80 72500.50 77982.03 EPS 16.33 17.16 18.46 P/E 7.93 7.54 7.01 Shareholding Pattern (%) 1 Year Comparative Graph SYNOPSIS Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL) is one of the world s largest integrated producers of Zinc-Lead and a leading producer of Silver globally. Net sales has registered 8.56% increase and stood at Rs. 34500.70 million from Rs. 31780.20 million over the corresponding quarter last year. Operating profit was at Rs. 22477.00 millions in Q3 FY14 an increased by 12.37% against Rs. 20002.80 millions in Q3 FY13. During the quarter ended Q3 FY14, net profit Jumps to 6.83% at Rs.17227.20 million against 16125.40 million in Q3 FY13. The Company has cash and cash equivalents of Rs. 240950.00 mn out of which invested in debt mutual funds, bonds and fixed deposits with banks. Integrated refined zinc production was up 17% to 196478 MT and lead was up by 21% to 24984 MT in Q3 FY14. Integrated saleable silver production is projected to be in the range of 290-300 MT in FY 2014. HINDUSTAN ZINC LIMITED BSE SENSEX For the nine month period, mined metal production was 679,597 MT as compared to 610,059 MT in the corresponding prior period. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 10% and 12% over 2012 to 2015E respectively. PEER GROUPS CMP MARKET CAP EPS P/E (X) P/BV(X) DIVIDEND Company Name (Rs.) Rs. in mn. (Rs.) Ratio Ratio (%) Hindustan Zinc Ltd 129.45 546965.09 16.33 7.93 1.69 155.00 National Aluminum Ltd 36.65 94455.80 2.73 13.42 0.79 25.00 Alicon Castalloy Ltd 70.90 779.90 16.42 4.32 0.77 40.00
Recommendation & Analysis - BUY Hindustan Zinc Ltd. is the world s largest integrated producer of Zinc-Lead. It has a metal production capacity of over 1.0 million MT per annum. For Q3 FY14, Revenues were up 8.56% to Rs. 34500.70 mn and 13.67% to Rs. 99933.60 mn in the nine month period, as compared with the corresponding prior periods. The increase was driven by higher zinc sales volume and rupee depreciation, partially offset by lower silver and acid prices. Net profit was up 6.83% to Rs. 17227.20mn in Q3 FY14 and 6.12% to Rs.50234.20 mn in the nine month period as compared to previous year. Operating profit was at Rs. 22477.00 millions in Q3 FY14 an increased by 12.37% against corresponding quarter of the previous year. The zinc metal cost of production before royalty during the quarter was Rs. 52014 per MT ($840), 16% higher in Rupee and 1% higher in USD terms from a year ago. The increase in rupee costs was primarily due to lower byproduct sulphuric acid prices, higher diesel costs and rupee depreciation, partly offset by higher volumes and operational efficiencies. As on 31 December 2013, the Company had cash and cash equivalents of Rs. 240950.00 mn out of which Rs. 191110.00 mn was invested in debt mutual funds, Rs. 19720.00 mn in bonds and Rs 30000.00 mn were in fixed deposits with banks. The company expects mined metal production to be approximately 900,000 MT in FY 2014. The momentum in integrated zinc lead production in H1 is expected to continue in H2. Integrated saleable silver production is projected to be approximately 290-300MT in FY 2014. The Company s mine development is progressing well at all underground projects. Kayad mine has become operational during the quarter. In emerging global demand-supply dynamics is leading a consistent deficit scenario as anticipated. The company looks to double its profits in upcoming fiscal year with focusing on sustainability of its operations and is committed to increase mining capacity and maintaining cost efficiency which will enable good perform in the market for long run. Over FY2012-15E, we expect the company to post a CAGR of 10% and 12% in its top-line and bottom-line respectively. Hence, we recommend BUY for HINDUSTAN ZINC LTD with a target price of Rs. 148.00 on the stock.
QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS (STANDALONE) Results updates- Q3 FY14, HZL is one of the world s largest integrated producers of Zinc-Lead and a leading producer of Silver globally. It has a metal production capacity of over one million tonnes per annum with its key Lead-Zinc mines in Rampura Agucha and Sindesar Khurd; and modern smelting complexes in Chanderiya and Dariba, has reported its financial results for the quarter ended 31 DECEMBER, 2013. Months DEC-13 DEC-12 % Change Net Sales 34500.70 31780.20 8.56 PAT 17227.20 16125.40 6.83 EPS 4.08 3.82 6.83 EBITDA 22477.00 20002.80 12.37 The company has achieved net sales of Rs. 34500.70 million for the 3 rd quarter of the current year 2013-14 as against Rs. 31780.20 millions in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The company has reported an EBITDA of Rs. 22477.00 millions an increase of 12.37% against corresponding quarter of the previous year and a net profit of Rs. 17227.20 million against Rs. 16125.40 million reported in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The company has reported an EPS of Rs. 4.08 for the 3 rd quarter as against an EPS of Rs. 3.82 in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Break up of Expenditure: During the quarter Total expenditure decline by 1 per cent, mainly on account of cost of material consumed, Employee Benefits Expenses along with mining royalty cost against corresponding quarter of the previous year. Total expenditure in Q3 FY14 stood to Rs. 18360.00 million as against Rs. 18568.00 million in Q3 FY13. Particulars Rs. Millions Q3 FY14 Q3 FY13 Cost of Material Consumed 232.1 3055.2 Other Expenditure 1367.9 1035 Power & Fuel 2892.7 2608.4 Depreciation & Amortization Expense 2096.8 1772.1 Employee Benefit Expenses 1591.1 1692.4 Consumption of Stores & Spare Parts 3391.4 2993 Other Mining & Manufacturing Expenses 3854.9 3268.3 Mining Royalty 2589.1 2687.9
Segment Revenue Latest Updates The Company follows a conservative Investment Policy and invests in fixed deposit with banks and high quality debt instruments. The Company had cash and cash equivalents of Rs. 240950.00 mn as on 31 December 2013. Total Income has increased from Rs. 36794.70 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2012 to Rs. 38740.20 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2013. For the nine month period, mined metal production was 679,597 MT as compared to 610,059 MT in the corresponding prior period. This is the highest ever mined metal production for the nine month period and was driven by higher production at Rampura Agucha and Zawar mines. The company expects mined metal production of ~900,000 MT in FY 2014 reflecting slower than expected ramp up of underground mining projects. Integrated saleable silver production is projected to be in the range of 290-300 MT in FY 2014. Operational Performance during Sept Dec 2013. Mined metal production was 220126 MT in Q3 FY14, as compared with 232926 MT in the corresponding prior period. Integrated refined zinc production was up 17% to 196478 MT and lead was up by 21% to 24984 MT in Q3 FY14. Integrated saleable silver production was up 35% y-o-y to 72 MT in Q3 FY14.
Expansion Projects Mine development is progressing well at all its underground projects. Kayad mine has become operational during the quarter. The company s project capex will be in line with the guidance of $ 250 Million per year. Sales Performance in Product wise COMPANY PROFILE Products Q3 FY14 Q3 FY13 CHNG % Rs. (in millions) Zinc 26500.00 19750.00 34 Lead 3520.00 3710.00 (5) Silver 3320.00 6450.00 (49) Others 760.00 1490.00 (49) Total 34100.00 31400.00 9 Hindustan Zinc Ltd is the one of the largest integrated producers of zinc-lead with a capacity of 1.0 million MT per annum and a leading producer of silver. The Company is headquartered in Udaipur, Rajasthan in India and has zinc-lead mines at Rampura Agucha, Sindesar Khurd, Rajpura Dariba, Zawar and Kayad; primary smelter operations at Chanderiya, Dariba and Debari, all in the state of Rajasthan; and finished product facilities in the state of Uttarakhand. Hindustan Zinc is a subsidiary of the BSE, NSE and NYSE listed Sesa Sterlite Limited, a part of London listed FTSE 100 diversified metals and mining major, Vedanta Resources plc. Hindustan Zinc has a world-class resource base with total reserves & resources of 348.3 million MT and average zinc-lead reserve grade of 12.0%. The Company has a track record of consistently growing its reserves & resource base since 2003 and currently has a mine life of over 25 years. The Company is self-sufficient in power with an installed base of 474 MW coal-based captive power plants. Additionally, it has green power capacity of 309 MW including 274 MW of wind power and 35 MW of waste heat power. The company has an operating workforce of over 15,000 including contract workforce. Business Activities HZL core business comprises of mining and smelting of zinc and lead along with captive power generation. It manufacturers three qualities of zinc -- special high grade zinc used in construction, infrastructure, household appliances etc; high grade zinc and prime western zinc. HZL manufactures 99.99% pure lead used in lead acid battery, ceramic glazes, electrodes, etc. It manufactures silver used in photographic material, conducter, jewellery, etc. The mineral major produces cadmium, whose purity ranges from 99.95-99.99%. It is used in Ni-Cd batteries, stablizers, coating and alloys. HZL also manufactures sulphuric acid used in fertilizers, dyes, textiles, sugar refining, etc.
The worlds largest integrated Zinc-Lead producer; it is and one of the lowest cost producers in the world. Hindustan is also one of the leading Silver producers globally. It has mining, smelting and power operations in multiple locations throughout India. The principal products are: refined Zinc metal and refined Lead metal. In addition it recovers Silver, Cadmium and Sulphuric acid. HZL also own 474 MW of coal based thermal captive power plants in Rajasthan to support its metallurgical operations. It also has 123.2 MW of wind energy in Gujarat and Karnataka, which is sold to the respective State grids. An addition of 150 MW in existing wind power capacity will increase power generation capacity to 274 MW of wind energy and 36MW from waste heat generation. Products India's largest and the world's second largest integrated zinc-lead producer; and also one of the lowest cost zinclead producers in the world. We have mining, smelting and power operations in multiple locations throughout India ZINC o Galvanizing o Zinc Oxide o Die Casting o Alloys o Rolled Zinc Lead o SLI ( Starting Lighting Ignition) batteries o Industrial batteries Silver o Silverware o Jewellery o Silver plating o Photography o Dentol alloys Cadmium
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHT (STANDALONE) (A*- Actual, E* -Estimations & Rs. In Millions) Balance Sheet as at 31st March, 2012-2015E FY-12A FY-13A FY-14E FY-15E I EQUITY AND LIABILITY A) Shareholder's Funds a) Share Capital 8450.60 8450.60 8450.60 8450.60 b) Reserves and Surplus 260362.00 314306.80 386807.30 464789.34 Sub-Total Net worth 268812.60 322757.40 395257.90 473239.94 B) Non Current Liabilities a) Deferred Tax Liabilities 11088.10 12798.60 11646.73 10482.05 b) Other Long term liabilities 171.50 282.30 338.76 392.96 Sub-Total Non Current Liabilities 11259.60 13080.90 11985.49 10875.02 C) Current Liabilities a) Short term borrowings 3.90 3.90 4.10 4.30 b) Trade payables 4102.90 4842.00 5229.36 5543.12 c) Other Current Liabilities 5631.50 5721.20 5778.41 5836.20 d) Short term Provisions 5039.40 8248.70 9898.44 10690.32 Sub-Total Current Liabilities 14777.70 18815.80 20910.31 22073.93 TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES (A + B + C) 294849.90 354654.10 428153.70 506188.88 II APPLICATION OF FUNDS D) Non-Current Assets Fixed Assets i. Tangible assets 84657.20 84736.90 93210.59 101775.57 ii. Intangible assets 471.00 100.50 115.58 127.13 iii. Capital Work in Progress 4449.60 10818.50 17309.60 23367.96 a) Sub-Total Fixed Assets 89577.80 95655.90 110635.77 125270.67 b) Non-current investments 25.90 27.00 28.52 29.95 c) Long Term loans and advances 8758.00 18982.90 31511.61 44116.26 d) Other non-current assets 146.10 2391.90 3707.45 4819.68 Sub-Total Non-Current Assets 98507.8 117057.7 145883.35 174236.56 E) Current Assets a) Current Investment 126922.60 145371.80 167298.93 192393.77 b) Inventories 7979.4 11110.90 14666.39 19066.30 c) Trade receivables 3324.50 4028.70 4753.87 5514.48 d) Cash and Bank Balances 52553.20 69421.00 85045.78 101451.44 e) Short-terms loans & advances 2334.30 3733.20 5749.13 7818.81 f) Other current assets 3228.10 3930.80 4756.27 5707.52 Sub-Total Current Assets 196342.10 237596.40 282270.36 331952.33 TOTAL ASSETS ( D+E ) 294849.90 354654.10 428153.70 506188.88
Annual Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 2012 to 2015E Value(Rs.in.mn) FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E Description 12m 12m 12m 12m Net Sales 114053.10 126998.40 140989.43 153678.48 Other Income 15428.30 20321.50 17689.76 19104.94 Total Income 129481.40 147319.90 158679.19 172783.42 Expenditure -53789.80-62357.30-65696.09-72228.89 Operating Profit 75691.60 84962.60 92983.11 100554.54 Interest -139.50-291.00-399.70-479.64 Gross profit 75552.10 84671.60 92583.41 100074.90 Depreciation -6106.70-6470.40-7964.50-9398.11 Exceptional Items 0.00 0.00-611.50 0.00 Profit Before Tax 69445.40 78201.20 84007.40 90676.78 Tax -14185.00-9206.40-11506.90-12694.75 Net Profit 55260.40 68994.80 72500.50 77982.03 Equity capital 8450.60 8450.60 8450.60 8450.60 Reserves 260362.00 314306.80 386807.30 464789.34 Face value 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 EPS 13.08 16.33 17.16 18.46 Quarterly Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 30 JUNE, 2013 to 31 MARCH, 2014E Value(Rs.in.mn) 30-Jun-13 30-Sep-13 31-Dec-13 31-Mar-14E Description 3m 3m 3m 3m Net sales 29841.60 35591.30 34500.70 41055.83 Other income 6202.80 2668.80 4239.50 4578.66 Total Income 36044.40 38260.10 38740.20 45634.49 Expenditure -14816.30-16757.30-16263.20-17859.29 Operating profit 21228.10 21502.80 22477.00 27775.21 Interest -109.40-80.30-100.00-110.00 Gross profit 21118.70 21422.50 22377.00 27665.21 Depreciation -1843.30-1864.70-2096.80-2159.70 Exceptional Items 0.00-611.50 0.00 0.00 Profit Before Tax 19275.40 18946.30 20280.20 25505.50 Tax -2670.90-2543.80-3053.00-3239.20 Net Profit 16604.50 16402.50 17227.20 22266.30 Equity capital 8450.60 8450.60 8450.60 8450.60 Face value 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 EPS 3.93 3.88 4.08 5.27
Ratio Analysis Particulars FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E EPS (Rs.) 13.08 16.33 17.16 18.46 EBITDA Margin (%) 66.37 66.90 65.95 65.43 PBT Margin (%) 60.89 61.58 59.58 59.00 PAT Margin (%) 48.45 54.33 51.42 50.74 P/E Ratio (x) 9.90 7.93 7.54 7.01 ROE (%) 20.56 21.38 18.34 16.48 ROCE (%) 30.43 28.33 25.54 23.23 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.53 5.62 4.97 4.43 Book Value (Rs.) 63.62 76.39 93.55 112.00 P/BV 2.03 1.69 1.38 1.16 Charts
OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSION At the current market price of Rs. 129.45, the stock P/E ratio is at 7.54 x FY14E and 7.01 x FY15E respectively. Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY14E and FY15E is seen at Rs.17.16 and Rs.18.46 respectively. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 10% and 12% over 2012 to 2015E respectively. On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 4.97 x for FY14E and 4.43 x for FY15E. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 1.38 x and 1.16 x respectively for FY14E and FY15E. We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We recommend BUY in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs.148.00 for Medium to Long term investment. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW ZINC Focus on India, being a large growing market and an underexplored territory for base metals. It supply more than 80% of India s demand for Zinc, which is essential for galvanising the country s infrastructure and construction industries. The company newly added Lead capacity will serve the nascent but expanding automobiles and industrial segments. In addition, it enhanced Silver production will reduce the country s dependence on imports. While the company continue to explore for new mineral reserves to fulfill country s future needs, and strong cash reserves of USD 3.5 billion gives a war-chest to look at acquiring strategic raw material reserves in India and overseas to supplement growing requirements. The Zinc consumption growth is mainly driven by the developing countries on the path of rapid urbanisation and increased demand for galvanized sheets. In the future, demand from the emerging countries is expected to offset the deceleration of demand in Europe and western countries. Global Zinc demand is expected to grow at a modest 5% in 2012 and a similar growth is anticipated in 2013, increasing the global Zinc consumption to just short of 14Mt by the end of 2013. The Government s investment in infrastructure is proposed to be doubled in the Twelfth Five-Year plan (2012-2017) to USD 1.0 trillion. Zinc demand growth will therefore benefit from coated steel consumption growth in view of incessant urbanization and forecast double digit growth in automobiles, taking it to over 8.4% in 2012
and thereon upholding the demand growth momentum to around 6-7% annual rate in long run. HZL has an 82% market share in India and is well positioned to benefit from this growth. Strong long term outlook for developing countries The global zinc consumption is expected to gain momentum and grow at over 5% in the near term, as compared to 2% demand growth in 2012. Galvanising sector s growth in the emerging economies, triggered by urbanization and industrialization, will enhance the intensity of zinc use, thus driving global zinc demand. The expected economic recovery of China, along with expanding demand from emerging economies, is also likely to help accelerate demand. The near-term demand growth rate for zinc in Asia and Africa s emerging economies will continue to remain strong at 7%, outpacing the demand from rest of the world. China is the largest producer as well as consumer of zinc globally. The new Chinese Government s economic initiatives are likely to help stimulate zinc demand. China s zinc demand is likely to be driven by the high-growth coated steel industry and increased galvanised sheet production. Its consumption growth rate for zinc is expected to recover from under 7% in 2012 and expand to over 8% from 2013-2015. In India, it is anticipating double-digit growth in the near-term, with strong demand expected from the continuous and general galvanizing industry. Investment in infrastructure projects is expected to further boost demand of industrial metals including zinc. The Company s expansion at Rampura Agucha and sindesar Khurd mines are progressing well. Besides, production is expected to commence at the Kayad mine in 2013. All these help to cater to increasing domestic demand as well as export products to meet surging demand in Asia and Africa. Furthermore, the company enhanced product mix, along with its focused and sustained market development initiatives, are now all set to open up new markets and thus, new opportunities for the Company. Zinc price in a secular trend Zinc price is projected to rise gradually over the next couple of years, before breaking out in 2015. The industry is expecting structural changes, as there is no visibility of any significantly large project to replace some of the major mines that are on the verge of closure over the next 3-4 years. The current inventory is likely to be used up to meet the growing demand. The global decline in supply, resulting from mine closures and depleting inventory, is likely to boost zinc price in the coming years. Higher price outlook for zinc is further supported by rising production costs due to increasing input prices and increasing mine depths. Moreover, geographical, infrastructural, environmental and financial bottlenecks will drive capital costs higher for new mining projects.
Lead Lead will continue experiencing a robust demand of over 5% in 2013, driven mainly by the automotive and industrial battery sectors. Low inventory levels and tight spot availability, aggregated by tightness in the battery scrap market in general, will continue to elevate premiums across the globe and increase price. From a robust growth of 12% in 2012, global mine production is anticipated to experience near-term average growth rate of 4-5%. The expected short-term tightness in mined metal is likely to impact raw material availability for primary smelter production. A refined metal deficit is expected in near future, with market turning in surplus post 2017. Leads major demand driver is the replacement battery market, which at present accounts for around 45% of the global endues consumption. The ongoing growth of the automobile industry will further push the Lead market growth. In 2011, the Indian Lead market experienced a growth of 4.3%, as the refined Lead consumption in the country increased to 0.46 Million tonnes. The demand from the battery sector contributes to around 90% of the Indian Lead market. Silver Global silver mine production is estimated to have witnessed a growth of 4% in 2012, while overall demand for silver recorded a marginal growth reaching 32,600 MT this year, as against a demand of 32,300 MT in the previous year. Mine production rose by 4% and supply side supported by higher scrap supply increased by 9% this year. The demand by fabrication has seen a growth of 4% this year due to consistent demand in industrial uses and robust growth in investment, partially offset by a decline in jewellery and Silverware demand on account of high prices. Due to the higher investment demand and steady industrial growth, Silver demand is expected to further rise in next year. Indian demand for Silver increased by 12% to 3,550 tonnes in FY 2012, as compared to the previous year. Indian Silver demand is expected to grow on the back of prospective growth in industrial segments with Silver becoming a preferred investment asset along with gold. Disclaimer: This document prepared by our research analysts does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable but do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt. Ltd. or any of it s affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This document is provide for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision.
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