In the Pink of Health ; Accumulate May 14, 2018 Amnish Aggarwal amnishaggarwal@plindia.com +91 22 66322233 Nishita Doshi nishitadoshi@plindia.com +91 22 66322381 Rating Accumulate Price Rs1,505 Target Price Rs1,555 Implied Upside 3.3% Sensex 35,557 Nifty 10,807 (Prices as on May 14, 2018) Trading data Market Cap. (Rs bn) 3,250.7 Shares o/s (m) 2,16 3M Avg. Daily value (Rs m) 1466.3 Major shareholders Promoters 67.19% Foreign 12.56% Domestic Inst. 6.85% Public & Other 13.39% Stock Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute 6.8 17.3 53.6 Relative 2.8 9.3 35.8 How we differ from Consensus EPS (Rs) PL Cons. % Diff. 2019 28.0 28.3 1.0 2020 33.4 33.5 0.1 Price Performance (RIC: HLL.BO, BB: HUVR IN) (Rs) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 May 17 Jul 17 Source: Bloomberg Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 Mar 18 HUVR has reported a robust 11% volume growth and 240bps margin expansion as benefits of cost efficiency programs and improved product mix have boosted profitability. Medium term outlook looks encouraging given 1) gradual pick up in rural demand 2) sustained benefits from GST 3) normalisation of trade channels 4) low base for 1Q and 2Q19 and 5) success of new launches in naturals segment. Although HUL expects increase in competitive activity and higher input costs, sustained benefits of Premiumisation in Home Care, success in naturals with Lever Ayush, Citra, Indulekha etc. and strong growth in emerging categories (premium laundry, hand wash, Liquid dish wash, Hair conditioner, Face wash and Green tea) will enable steady margin expansion. We slightly tweak our numbers and increase EPS estimates by 2% for FY19 and 1% for FY20. We remain positive on the long term structural story; however, expect back ended returns post 53% returns in past 1 year. We retain Accumulate with a target price of Rs1555 at 43xSept20 EPS (Rs1387, 42xMarch 20EPS earlier). Concall Takeaways:1) Trade Channels have normalised, however No GST led transition from unorganised sector to organised sector is visible so far 2) E way bill implementation can led to some trade disruption in the short term 3) Demand has seen improvement in both urban and rural India, however rural has grown faster in certain pockets. 4) Input costs pressures would remain on rising crude oil prices which has increased ~20% 1Q19 5) There will be continued pressure from currency as it has already declined 6% in 1Q19. However, strong savings program led by control on the COGS would help ease pressure 6) HUL has launched Pure Derm Shampoo in the anti dandruff segment, however it is retaining CLEAR brand as of now 7) Innovations and activations shall increase adspends in FY19 8) HUL has made provision of Rs640mn for variable payable for Indulekha acquisition as the performance has been far better than expectations 9) The Categories of future and the naturals portfolio are growing at an 2x and 2.5x of the HUL average 10) HUL has seen higher growth in popular and the premium segments, economy segment has been tepid. Key financials (Y/e March) 2017 2018 2019E 2020E Revenues (Rs m) 344,870 352,180 386,876 431,531 Growth (%) 3.0 2.1 9.9 11.5 EBITDA (Rs m) 60,470 72,760 86,036 102,409 PAT (Rs m) 42,490 51,359 60,706 72,542 EPS (Rs) 19.7 23.8 28.0 33.4 Growth (%) 1.9 20.9 17.7 19.5 Net DPS (Rs) 16.5 18.0 22.0 2 Profitability & Valuation 2017 2018 2019E 2020E EBITDA margin (%) 17.5 20.7 22.2 23.7 RoE (%) 66.6 75.7 83.1 89.5 RoCE (%) 62.1 69.6 76.0 82.0 EV / sales (x) 9.4 9.1 8.4 7.5 EV / EBITDA (x) 53.6 44.2 37.6 31.5 PE (x) 76.5 63.3 53.8 45.0 P / BV (x) 50.1 45.9 43.3 37.7 Net dividend yield (%) 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 Source: Company Data; PL Research Q4FY18 REsult Update Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report
Exhibit 1: Q4FY18 Results (Rs m): Volumes up 11%, Adj. margins up 240bps, Adj. PAT up 19% Y/e March Q4FY18 Q4FY17 YoY gr. (%) Q3FY18 FY18 FY17 YoY gr. (%) Net Sales 90,970 82,130 10.8 85,900 3,45,250 3,18,899 8.3 Gross Profit 47,830 41,910 14.1 46,850 1,82,930 1,62,057 12.9 % of NS 52.6 51.0 54.5 53.0 50.8 Advertising & Prom Exp. 10,700 8,530 25.4 11,070 41,050 34,693 18.3 % of NS 11.8 10.4 12.9 11.9 10.9 Total Expenses 70,490 65,620 7.4 69,100 2,72,490 2,58,429 5.4 EBITDA 20,480 16,510 2 16,800 72,760 60,470 20.3 Margins (%) 22.5 20.1 2.4 19.6 21.1 19.0 Depreciation 1,280 1,080 18.5 1,210 4,780 3,960 20.7 EBIT 19,200 15,430 24.4 15,590 67,980 56,510 20.3 Interest 40 60 (33.3) 50 200 215 (6.8) Other Income 1,000 830 20.5 1,520 5,690 5,259 8.2 PBT 20,160 16,200 24.4 17,060 73,470 61,554 19.4 Tax 6,070 4,360 39.2 5,080 22,110 18,419 2 Effective tax rate (%) 30.1 26.9 29.8 30.1 29.9 Adjusted PAT 14,090 11,840 19.0 11,980 51,360 43,134 19.1 Extraordinary (100) (190) 1,280 (1,010) (1,766) Reported Profit 13,990 11,650 20.1 13,260 50,350 41,369 21.7 Net Sales up 10.8% to Rs90.97bn, volumes up 11%, consumer sales up 16% Gross margin up 150bps and EBIDTA margin up 240bps as staff costs and other expenses declined by 30bps and 190bps, ad spend increased by 25.4% (140bps) Adj. EBIDTA at Rs20.48b up 24% YoY Adj Pat Rs14.1b up 19% as other income increased 20% and tax rate also increased by 320bps. Home Care had double digit volume growth with sales up 3.5% and EBIT up 30.8% on 350bps margin expansion Personal care sales up 0.5%, EBIT up 8.3% on 180bps margin expansion and strong growth in FAL, hair Care and Colour Cosmetics Refreshments sales up 8.4%, EBIT up 16.9% on 130bps higher margins. Tea had double digit growth, Ice cream had double digit growth led by geographical expansion. Packaged food sales were up 1.4% and EBIT was up 10.7% to Rs.310mn on 90bps expansion. Rural demand is picking up and has grown at a rate faster than urban demand in pockets. Lower prices post GST rate reduction has also boosted demand. May 14, 2018 2
Exhibit 2: Exhibit 2: Adjusted consumer sales up 16%, reported sales impacted by GST led adjustments Source: Company Data Exhibit 3: HUVR s innovation focus continues in core categories Source: Company Data May 14, 2018 3
Exhibit 4: HUVR is progressively building the naturals portfolio Source: Company Data Exhibit 5: HUVR s strong savings program aids margins Source: Company Data May 14, 2018 4
Exhibit 6: Comparable FMCG sales up 16% Exhibit 7: Volumes up 11% on a low base (%) 18.0 16.0 1 12.0 1 8.0 6.0 2.0 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 2.0 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 8.0 Q4FY17 6.0 Q1FY18 1 Q2FY18 17.0 16.0 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 12.0 1 8.0 6.0 2.0 (2.0) () (6.0) (%) Q4FY16 Q1FY17 (1.0) Q2FY17 () Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 11.0 Q3FY18 11.0 Q4FY18 Exhibit 8: Ad spend up 140bps on increased brand building 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 1 9.5 9.0 (%) 11.2 10.8 10.9 11.5 10.4 10.6 12.3 12.9 11.8 Q4FY1 6 Q1FY1 7 Q2FY1 7 Q3FY1 7 Q4FY1 7 Q1FY1 8 Q2FY1 8 Q3FY1 8 Q4FY1 8 Exhibit 10: (%) 8 6 4 2 PFAD prices down 15.3% YoY and 2.2% QoQ YoY 2 4.4 18.9 4 21.9 27.8 28.9 6.7 QoQ 69.7 28.7 30.3 3.1 2.7 6.9 15.3 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Exhibit 9: GM up 150bps; EBITDA margins up 240bps 56.0 5 52.0 5 48.0 46.0 4 42.0 19.1 51.2 Q4FY16 Gross Margins (%) Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 52.6 51.0 20.1 22.5 Q4FY17 Exhibit 11: (Rs/Kg) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 EBITDA Margins (%) (RHS) Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 2 22.0 2 18.0 16.0 1 12.0 LAB prices are up 3.9% QoQ and up 7% YoY 125.1 103.1 89.1 106 104 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Mar 14 Jun 14 Sep 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Source :PL Research May 14, 2018 5
Exhibit 12: Sales not comparable due to GST, Home care, Personal care and Refreshments see margin expansion Quarterly Segmental 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 Net Sales (Rs m) 83,210 87,886 84,700 83,073 88,750 92,130 83,030 85,900 90,970 Home Care 27,980 28,760 27,770 26,891 30,040 30,470 27,390 27,410 31,020 Personal Care 37,700 42,216 40,280 39,802 40,750 43,680 39,100 40,900 40,960 Foods 2,880 2,722 2,778 2,785 2,950 2,840 2,820 3,000 2,990 Refreshments 11,760 12,149 11,692 11,641 13,000 13,460 12,220 12,480 14,090 Others 2,890 2,038 2,181 1,954 2,010 1,680 1,500 2,110 1,910 Sales Growth % 4.4 1.6 (0.8) 6.7 4.8 (2.0) 3.4 2.5 Home Care 8.0 3.2 1.0 7.4 5.9 (1.4) 1.9 3.3 Personal Care 2.7 (0.3) (2.7) 8.1 3.5 (2.9) 2.8 0.5 Foods 5.0 2.4 0.5 2.4 4.3 1.5 7.7 1.4 Refreshments 5.6 8.4 8.1 10.5 10.8 4.5 7.2 8.4 Others (14.3) (15.2) (27.3) (30.4) (17.6) (31.2) 8.0 (5.0) EBIT (Rs m) 14,514 15,768 13,981 13,359 16,160 18,170 15,560 15,300 18,640 Home Care 3,023 3,559 2,800 2,342 3,890 4,480 3,830 3,540 5,090 Personal Care 9,027 10,214 9,226 9,208 9,840 10,790 9,480 10,070 10,660 Foods 381 170 137 261 280 410 170 110 310 Refreshments 1,943 1,921 1,726 1,713 2,190 2,550 2,140 1,690 2,560 Others 140 95 91 166 40 60 60 110 20 EBIT Growth % 4.7 9.0 (5.5) 11.3 15.2 11.3 14.5 15.3 Home Care 22.7 24.7 (0.6) 28.7 25.9 36.8 51.1 30.8 Personal Care 0.3 3.6 (7.1) 9.0 5.6 2.8 9.4 8.3 Foods (20.7) (16.2) (25.1) (26.5) 141.6 2 (57.9) 10.7 Refreshments 7.5 17.5 7.4 12.7 32.8 2 (1.3) 16.9 Others 340.5 112.1 159.0 (128.6) (36.6) (165.6) (33.5) (15) EBIT Margin % Home Care 10.8 12.4 10.1 8.7 12.9 14.7 1 12.9 16.4 Personal Care 23.9 24.2 22.9 23.1 24.1 24.7 24.2 24.6 26.0 Foods 13.2 6.2 4.9 9.4 9.5 14.4 6.0 3.7 10.4 Refreshments 16.5 15.8 14.8 14.7 16.8 18.9 17.5 13.5 18.2 May 14, 2018 6
Income Statement (Rs m) Net Revenue 344,870 352,180 386,876 431,531 Raw Material Expenses 182,820 169,250 181,167 200,453 Gross Profit 162,050 182,930 205,709 231,078 Employee Cost 16,200 17,450 19,893 22,027 Other Expenses 85,380 92,720 99,780 106,642 EBITDA 60,470 72,760 86,036 102,409 Depr. & Amortization 3,960 4,781 5,095 5,440 Net Interest 220 200 220 220 Other Income 5,260 5,690 6,002 6,882 Profit before Tax 61,550 73,469 86,722 103,631 Total Tax 19,060 22,110 26,017 31,089 Profit after Tax 42,490 51,359 60,706 72,542 Ex Od items / Min. Int. 4,820 2,023 1,000 1,000 Adj. PAT 42,490 51,359 60,706 72,542 Avg. Shares O/S (m) 2,16 2,16 2,17 2,17 EPS (Rs.) 19.7 23.8 28.0 33.4 Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) C/F from Operations 54,340 65,260 61,233 82,929 C/F from Investing (13,460) (14,440) (4,231) (20,733) C/F from Financing (42,630) (45,739) (56,166) (61,271) Inc. / Dec. in Cash (1,750) 5,081 836 924 Opening Cash 2,400 650 5,730 6,566 Closing Cash 650 5,730 6,566 7,490 FCFF 36,680 57,230 55,517 77,252 FCFE 36,680 57,230 55,517 77,252 Key Financial Metrics Growth Revenue (%) 3.0 2.1 9.9 11.5 EBITDA (%) 5.2 20.3 18.2 19.0 PAT (%) 1.9 20.9 18.2 19.5 EPS (%) 1.9 20.9 17.7 19.5 Profitability EBITDA Margin (%) 17.5 20.7 22.2 23.7 PAT Margin (%) 12.3 14.6 15.7 16.8 RoCE (%) 62.1 69.6 76.0 82.0 RoE (%) 66.6 75.7 83.1 89.5 Balance Sheet Net Debt : Equity (0.2) (0.5) (0.4) (0.5) Net Wrkng Cap. (days) (63) (88) (83) (83) Valuation PER (x) 76.5 63.3 53.8 45.0 P / B (x) 50.1 45.9 43.3 37.7 EV / EBITDA (x) 53.6 44.2 37.6 31.5 EV / Sales (x) 9.4 9.1 8.4 7.5 Earnings Quality Eff. Tax Rate 31.0 30.1 3 3 Other Inc / PBT 8.5 7.7 6.9 6.6 Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 5.8 6.5 6.5 6.5 FCFE / PAT 86.3 111.4 91.5 106.5. Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) Shareholder's Funds 64,900 70,751 75,418 86,734 Total Debt Other Liabilities 5,740 6,660 7,248 7,880 Total Liabilities 70,640 77,411 82,666 94,613 Net Fixed Assets 42,270 45,720 43,675 43,384 Goodwill Investments 42,860 31,110 33,210 43,510 Net Current Assets (14,490) 580 5,781 7,719 Cash & Equivalents 11,640 33,730 33,647 39,855 Other Current Assets 50,740 60,930 64,573 70,861 Current Liabilities 76,870 94,080 92,439 102,997 Other Assets Total Assets 70,640 77,410 82,665 94,613 Quarterly Financials (Rs m) Y/e March Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Net Revenue 85,290 83,090 85,900 90,970 EBITDA 18,660 16,820 16,800 20,480 % of revenue 21.9 20.2 19.6 22.5 Depr. & Amortization 1,140 1,150 1,210 1,280 Net Interest 60 60 50 40 Other Income 1,130 2,040 1,520 1,000 Profit before Tax 18,590 17,650 17,060 20,160 Total Tax 5,670 5,290 5,080 6,070 Profit after Tax 12,920 12,360 11,970 13,990 Adj. PAT 12,920 12,360 11,980 14,090 Key Operating Metrics Volume Growth % (1.5) 7.3 7.1. May 14, 2018 7
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. 3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai 400 018, India Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209 Rating Distribution of Research Coverage PL s Recommendation Nomenclature % of Total Coverage 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 43.4% 44.2% 12.4% % BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12 months Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12 months Reduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12 months Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12 months Trading Buy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1 month Trading Sell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1 month Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly DISCLAIMER/DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION We/I, Mr. Amnish Aggarwal (MBA, CFA), Ms. Nishita Doshi (CA, CFA Level 1, B.Com), Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. 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