A gold mine or a minefield? Summary Strong U.S. growth is likely to cause spillover effect on the rest of the world, thus sustaining global economic expansion. But the range of possibilities for global economic outlook has widened. On the downside are trade war, protracted Brexit negotiations and overheating risks. On the upside are the Trump stimulus-inspired surprises. Rising U.S. interest rates, hawkish Fed policy and a strengthening U.S. dollar have tightened financial conditions, with spillover effect across markets including Ghana. This has intensified the scramble for liquidity in the local market. Slump in revenue generation could see Ghana introduce new tax measures in its mid-year budget review. In spite of this, Ghana s economic data remains encouraging with 1Q2018 real GDP growth of 6.8% compared with 6.7% in 1Q2017. What was exciting here was that growth in non-oil GDP (15.1% y/y) was stronger than oil GDP (6.1% y/y) despite the ramp up in oil production in the past nine months. However, Ghana s growth target is at risk as growth in private sector credit slows down. Bouts of volatility in 2Q2018 underpin the need for building greater resilience into portfolios. We recommend shortening duration in local currency fixed income, going up-in-quality across equities and credit, going long on currency hedged assets and increasing diversifications. The Investment team Isaac Adomako Boamah, CFA Chief Investment Officer Derrick Asare Mensah Portfolio Manager, Equities & Credit Obed Odenteh Portfolio Manager, Treasuries The tremors that battered financial markets in 2Q2018 have been nerve-wracking, especially given the pace with which bullish sentiments have quickly unwound into cautionary plays. Yields have picked up, the local currency has depreciated faster within this quarter than it has done in the last five combined and Ghanaian equities have surrendered more than half of the gains chalked in 1Q2018. In spite of this we share the view that strong U.S. growth is likely to cause a spillover effect on the rest of the world and thus sustain global economic expansion. However, the range of possibilities for global economic outlook has widened. On the downside are trade war, protracted Brexit negotiation and overheating risks. On the upside are the Trump stimulus-inspired surprises. On the local front a cocktail of elevated uncertainty and pickup in yields has intensified the scramble for liquidity. Thus, the need for building greater resilience into portfolios is much higher now than it was before. The scramble for liquidity intensifies Rising U.S. interest rates, hawkish Fed policy and a strengthening U.S. dollar have tightened financial conditions, with spillover effect across markets including Ghana. Tighter funding conditions in developed markets have played a role in the 2Q2018 pain local currency, and bonds have all shed off significant gains. 1
USD Billion GHS' Billions GHS QUARTERLY CIO LETTER Stock market performance in major SSA countries Domestic debt purchased/sold by foreign investors 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% NASI Index-Kenya GSE Index NSE Index 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 Jan'18 Feb'18 Mar'18 Apr'18 May'18 Jun'18 Sold Av. USD/GHS Purchase Linear (Purchase) 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 Source: Ghana Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, ICAMGH Research Eurobond yields for selected SSA markets 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Source: Central Securities Depository While all of this is unsettling for investors, we are unfazed by the turn of events as this was largely expected. In our previous letter, we indicated that markets were overheated and due for a correction. We also hinted at the potential shortfall in government revenue and the impact on government borrowing which could lead to a rerating at the short-end of the curve. Government revenue vs expenditure 3.0% 5.0 Ghana Kenya Nigeria 4.0 Source: Bloomberg 3.0 Further strengthening of the greenback could cause more pain to the local economy and derail the fiscal consolidation efforts of the current managers of the economy. Higher Fed rates mean renewed competition for capital and less need to hunt for yield when dollar based investors can get above-inflation returns in short-term risk-free instruments. This has led to rising risk premia across emerging markets (EM) assets as price correction sets in. 2.0 0.0 Q2 2017 3Q 2017 4Q 2017 1Q 2018 - Total Revenue Total Expenditure International Reserves Trade Balance Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Ghana 2
Jan'17 Feb'17 Mar'17 Apr'17 May'17 Jun'17 Jul'17 Aug'17 Sept'17 Oct'17 Nov'17 Dec'17 Jan'18 Feb'18 Mar'18 Ar'18 QUARTERLY CIO LETTER It is also worth noting that regardless of the noise from the markets, the Ghanaian economy is still performing well and this is likely to continue for the next few quarters. Economic data remains encouraging with 1Q2018 real GDP growth of 6.8% compared with 6.7% in 1Q2017. What was exciting here was that growth in non-oil GDP (15.1% y/y) was stronger than oil GDP (6.1% y/y) despite the ramp up in oil production in the past nine months. Inflation in April also touched its lowest of 9.6% since the CPI was rebased in 2013 before inching up slightly to 10% in June 2018. However, this has been achieved on the back of reduced government spending and slow growth in private credit. Monetary sector indicators As at the end of 2Q2018 the yield curve had normalised from an inverted curve in 1Q2018 in spite of the pickup in yields across all tenors. What this means is that the value of all bonds held declined in 2Q2018 with holders of longer tenors worse off. This explains our decision to reduce the average maturity tenor in our portfolio to 3.5 years from 3.8 years. Given pickup in yields, government is likely to pay more at the short end of the curve than at the long end. This could result in an inverted yield curve by the end of 3Q2018. Ghana s yield curve evolution 18.3% 17.8% 17.3% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 16.8% 16.3% 15.8% 15.3% 2-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 7-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 2Q18 5.0% 0.0% Private sector credit Total liquidity Inflation Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Ghana Building greater resilience into our portfolios Bouts of volatility in 2Q2018 underpin the need for portfolio resilience. However, building a resilient portfolio in a plain vanilla market is a difficult task to accomplish due to shortage of asset classes. In spite of this challenge we still believe resilience can be built into our portfolios by shortening duration in local currency fixed income, going up-in-quality across equities and credit, going long on currency hedged assets and increasing diversification. In 2Q2018 we reduced our average maturity tenor for treasury securities to 3.5 years from 3.8 years even though our long-term strategy is to have a well laddered bond portfolio post 2020 elections to 2023. We held back on this strategy because we believe yields are likely to increase further on the back of tightening financial conditions in the U.S. and other developed markets. At this stage, the primary market is less attractive and thus we intend to avoid primary auctions as better opportunities exist in the secondary market. Source: Bank of Ghana The end of the bull run or an opportunity to buy the dip? While we anticipated a mid-cycle market correction given our view that Ghanaian equities were overvalued, the recent sell-off has been more material than earlier envisaged. In 2Q2018 alone, the Ghana Stock Exchange GSE) saw more than GHS 9bn (USD1.9bn) wiped off its market capitalisation as the index closed the quarter 18.8% worse off than it began. Although some analysts have attributed the recent selloff to investors decision to off-load existing positions in exchange for liquidity for the MTN Ghana IPO, we have a contrarian view. In our earlier letter, we indicated that bullish sentiments were being fuelled by local institutional investors. These locals, who appear to have been late in adjusting for the shift across the yield curve, were merely compensating for the decline in their fixed income positions by seeking alpha on the stock market. However, following the release of 1Q2018 company results, corporate earnings have lagged valuations prompting bearish sentiments. 3
In our opinion, there is no correlation between the sell-off and the IPO given that, the local investors causing the selloff are largely private pension funds. As at the time of going to print, these pension funds were yet to receive a waiver from the regulator allowing them to invest in IPOs. Key equity allocations We believe that the broad-based decline in prices has created an attractive entry point for value investors like ourselves. In effect, we see this as an opportunity to pursue our equity agenda which we had alluded to in our 3Q2017 CIO letter. We, therefore, intend to increase our overall allocation to equities to 10% of our assets under management by consolidating our positions in CAL Bank (CAL) and Ecobank Ghana (EGH) as well as three additional counters we have identified. Evolution of CAL & EGH multiples over the period 2.6 0.9 0.9 Source: ICAMGH Research 2.2 At the time of going to print, the price of CAL was GHS 1.30 per share. In effect, the stock is trading at a price-to-book ratio (PB) of x compared with a PB of 1.5x at the close of April 2018 when it peaked. This implies that, CAL has become 33.3% cheaper even after adjusting for the bonus issue. Based on our valuation, we believe CAL has an upside in excess of 26.2% from the current price. Similarly, EGH s 24.2% drop on the market from when it peaked at GHS 11.65 in the month of May means that, the stock has become 28.1% cheaper (i.e. PB down from 3.2x to 2.3x). Apart from valuations, we believe these two banks having already met the minimum capital requirement are insulated from the threat of equity dilution arising from an equity capital raising. 1.2 3.1 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 CAL EGH 2.3 Through a transfer of GHS 250m from FY17 audited profits, an additional GHS 50m transfer in 1Q18 profits and the existing GHS 100m in stated capital, CAL has met the new minimum capital requirement of GHS 400m. Furthermore, we forecast CAL s net profit to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.2% over the next five years, driven by a stronger balance sheet to push loan growth and non-funded income which will be supported largely by off balance sheet transactions. Likewise, EGH through a recent bonus issue, transferred GHS 190m from its retained earnings to stated capital to meet the new minimum capital. In addition, we envisage bottom line to grow by a CAGR of 18.3% over the next five years. As mentioned earlier, we have identified three additional counters we intend to increase our allocation to, one of which is MTN Ghana, subject to regulatory approval. We are keen on MTN Ghana for two key reasons: 1. Still some upside. Despite being valued at 7.1x EV/EBITDA, we believe there is still some upside. In our opinion, management s guidance is conservative given the impact mobile financial services and data have on EBITDA going forward as well as the potential impact 4G could have on enterprise value. From our valuation, FY18 EV/EBITDA stands at 5.2x which implies a potential 12-month total return of 38.4%. 2. Growth from mobile money & data is enormous. While we believe growth from voice has plateaued and could potentially decline, we see significant growth opportunities in data and mobile money. According to the National Communication Authority, data penetration is 80.9% with MTN having 56.5% of market share. We believe data penetration could increase an additional 800bps over the next five years and this will have a positive impact on data ARPU (Average revenue per user). We also see significant traction in fixed line broadband on the back of 4G fiber internet. 4
With regards to the outlook on mobile financial services, particularly mobile money, we remain optimistic. Despite the potential drop in MTN Ghana s market share as a result of mobile money interoperability, we think that any material competitive pressure will require significant capital expenditure which will have to be deployed over a period. For portfolio strategy purposes, we will refrain from divulging the other two stocks at this stage. In conclusion, we are confident that our bottom-up process and value-based investing approach will see us successfully build resistance into our portfolio and deliver competitive returns regardless of recent headline news. Isaac Adomako Boamah, CFA Chief Investment Officer 5