Advance Trading, Inc. Supply/Demand Summary

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Transcription:

Corn Advance Trading, Inc. Supply/Demand Summary Planted Acres 88.0 94.0 90.2 90.2 0.0 89.1 89.1 0.0 % Harvested 91.8% 92.2% 91.7% 91.7% 91.8% 91.8% Harvested Acres 80.8 86.7 82.7 82.7 0.0 81.8 81.8 0.0 Yield (BU/AC) 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.6 0.0 178.9 178.9 0.0 Begin Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,293 0 2,140 2,140 0 Production 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,604 0 14,626 14,626 0 Imports 68 57 36 36 0 50 45 (5) TOTAL SUPPLY 15,401 16,942 16,934 16,934 0 16,816 16,811 (5) Exports 1,901 2,294 2,438 2,438 0 2,450 2,450 0 Feed Use 5,114 5,470 5,298 5,298 0 5,500 5,500 0 Food/Ind./Seed 6,648 6,885 7,058 7,058 0 7,130 7,080 (50) Ethanol for Fuel 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,605 0 5,650 5,600 (50) TOTAL USAGE 13,664 14,649 14,793 14,793 0 15,080 15,030 (50) END STOCKS 1,737 2,293 2,140 2,140 0 1,736 1,781 45 Stocks to Use 12.7% 15.7% 14.5% 14.5% 11.5% 11.8% U.S. Farm Price $3.61 $3.36 $3.36 $3.36 $3.20 - $4.00 $3.25 - $3.95 Soybeans Planted Acres 82.7 83.4 90.1 90.1 0.0 89.1 89.1 0.0 % Harvested 98.8% 99.2% 99.3% 99.3% 99.1% 99.1% Harvested Acres 81.7 82.7 89.5 89.5 0.0 88.3 88.3 0.0 Yield (BU/AC) 48.0 52.0 49.3 49.3 0.0 52.1 52.1 0.0 Begin Stocks 191 197 302 302 0 438 438 0 Production 3,926 4,296 4,411 4,411 0 4,600 4,600 0 Imports 24 22 22 22 0 25 25 0 TOTAL SUPPLY 4,140 4,515 4,734 4,734 0 5,063 5,063 0 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,055 0 2,080 2,080 0 Exports 1,942 2,166 2,129 2,129 0 1,900 1,900 0 Seed 97 105 104 104 0 96 96 0 Residual 18 41 8 8 0 32 32 0 TOTAL USAGE 3,944 4,214 4,296 4,296 0 4,107 4,107 0 END STOCKS 197 302 438 438 0 955 955 0 Stocks to Use 5.0% 7.2% 10.2% 10.2% 23.3% 23.3% U.S. Farm Price $8.95 $9.47 $9.33 $9.33 $7.60 - $ 9.60 $7.85 - $ 9.35

Soybean Oil (Million Pounds) Begin Stocks 1,855 1,687 1,711 1,711 0 1,990 1,990 0 Production 21,950 22,123 23,767 23,767 0 24,025 24,025 0 Imports 287 319 335 335 0 300 300 0 TOTAL SUPPLY 24,092 24,129 25,814 25,814 0 26,315 26,315 0 Domestic Disap. 20,162 19,862 21,376 21,376 0 22,200 22,200 0 Biodiesel 5,670 6,200 7,150 7,134 (16) 7,800 7,800 0 Food,Feed&Other 14,492 13,662 14,226 14,243 17 14,400 14,400 0 Exports 2,243 2,556 2,447 2,447 0 2,200 2,200 0 TOTAL USAGE 22,405 22,418 23,824 23,824 0 24,400 24,400 0 END STOCKS 1,687 1,711 1,990 1,990 0 1,915 1,915 0 Stocks to Use 7.5% 7.6% 10.0% 8.4% 7.8% 7.8% Average Price $29.86 $32.48 $30.04 $30.04 $28.00 - $32.00 $28.00 - $32.00 Soybean Meal (Thousand Short Tons) Begin Stocks 260 264 401 401 0 553 553 0 Production 44,672 44,787 49,216 49,216 0 49,147 49,147 0 Imports 403 350 495 495 0 350 350 0 TOTAL SUPPLY 45,336 45,400 50,112 50,112 0 50,050 50,050 0 Domestic Disap. 33,118 33,420 34,733 34,733 0 35,850 35,850 0 Exports 11,954 11,580 14,826 14,826 0 13,750 13,750 0 TOTAL USAGE 45,072 45,000 49,559 49,559 0 49,600 49,600 0 END STOCKS 264 401 553 553 0 450 450 0 Average Price $324.56 $316.88 $345.02 $345.02 $290.00 - $330.00 $290.00 - $330.00

Sorghum Planted Acres 8.5 6.7 5.6 5.6 0.0 5.8 5.8 0.0 % Harvested 92.9% 92.5% 89.3% 89.3% 87.9% 87.9% Harvested Acres 7.9 6.2 5.0 5.0 0.0 5.1 5.1 0.0 Yield (BU/AC) 76.0 77.9 72.1 72.1 0.0 71.4 71.4 0.0 Begin Stocks 18 37 33 33 0 35 35 0 Production 597 480 364 364 0 364 364 0 Imports 5 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 TOTAL SUPPLY 620 519 399 399 0 399 399 0 Feed/Residual 107 133 100 100 0 135 150 15 FSI 137 115 59 59 0 125 110 (15) Exports 340 238 205 205 0 100 100 0 TOTAL USAGE 583 485 364 364 0 360 360 0 END STOCKS 37 33 35 35 0 39 39 0 Stocks to Use 6.3% 6.8% 9.6% 9.6% 10.8% 10.8% U.S. Farm Price $3.31 $2.79 $3.22 $3.22 $3.00 - $3.80 $3.05 - $3.75 All Wheat Planted Acres 55.0 50.1 46.0 46.0 0.0 47.8 47.8 0.0 % Harvested 86.0% 87.6% 81.5% 81.5% 82.8% 82.8% Harvested Acres 47.3 43.9 37.5 37.5 0.0 39.6 39.6 0.0 Yield (BU/AC) 43.6 52.7 46.3 46.3 0.0 47.6 47.6 0.0 Begin Stocks 752 976 1,181 1,181 0 1,099 1,099 0 Production 2,062 2,309 1,740 1,740 0 1,884 1,884 0 Imports 113 118 157 157 0 140 140 0 TOTAL SUPPLY 2,927 3,402 3,078 3,078 0 3,123 3,123 0 Food 957 949 964 964 0 970 970 0 Seed 67 61 63 63 0 69 69 0 Feed/Residual 149 161 50 50 0 110 110 0 Exports 778 1,051 901 901 0 1,025 1,000 (25) TOTAL USAGE 1,951 2,222 1,979 1,979 0 2,174 2,149 (25) END STOCKS 976 1,181 1,099 1,099 0 949 974 25 Stocks to Use 50.0% 53.2% 55.5% 55.5% 43.7% 45.3% U.S. Farm Price $4.89 $3.89 $4.72 $4.72 $4.90 - $5.30 $5.05 - $5.25

Wheat by Class Hard Red Winter Begin Stocks 294 446 589 589 0 581 581 0 Production 830 1,082 750 750 0 662 662 0 TOTAL SUPPLY 1,130 1,533 1,346 1,346 0 1,246 1,248 2 Domestic Use 458 489 394 394 0 460 460 0 Exports 226 455 371 371 0 360 320 (40) TOTAL USAGE 685 943 765 765 0 820 780 (40) END STOCKS 446 589 581 581 0 426 468 42 Stocks to Use 65.1% 62.5% 75.9% 75.9% 52.0% 60.0% Hard Red Spring Begin Stocks 212 272 235 235 0 191 191 0 Production 568 491 384 384 0 587 587 0 TOTAL SUPPLY 828 805 707 707 0 850 850 0 Domestic Use 304 249 288 288 0 295 295 0 Exports 252 321 228 228 0 295 300 5 TOTAL USAGE 556 570 516 516 0 590 595 5 END STOCKS 272 235 191 191 0 260 255 (5) Stocks to Use 48.9% 41.2% 37.0% 37.0% 44.1% 42.9% Soft Red Winter Begin Stocks 154 157 215 215 0 205 205 0 Production 359 345 292 292 0 286 286 0 TOTAL SUPPLY 531 535 511 511 0 499 497 (2) Domestic Use 255 228 216 216 0 210 210 0 Exports 120 92 91 91 0 120 130 10 TOTAL USAGE 375 320 306 306 0 330 340 10 END STOCKS 157 215 205 205 0 169 157 (12) Stocks to Use 41.9% 67.2% 67.0% 67.0% 51.2% 46.2%

Cotton Planted Acres 8.58 10.07 12.61 12.61 0.00 14.04 14.04 0.00 % Harvested 94.1% 94.4% 88.0% 88.0% 73.9% 73.9% Harvested Acres 8.07 9.51 11.10 11.10 0.00 10.37 10.37 0.00 Yield (Pounds/AC) 766 867 905 905 0.00 852 860 8 Begin Stocks 3.65 3.80 2.75 2.75 0.00 4.30 4.30 0.00 Production 12.89 17.17 20.92 20.92 0.00 18.41 18.59 0.18 Imports 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 TOTAL SUPPLY 16.57 20.98 23.68 23.68 0.00 22.71 22.89 0.18 Domestic Use 3.45 3.25 3.23 3.23 0.00 3.30 3.30 0.00 Exports 9.15 14.92 15.85 15.85 0.00 15.00 15.00 0.00 TOTAL USAGE 12.60 18.17 19.07 19.07 0.00 18.30 18.30 0.00 Unaccounted 0.17 0.06 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.11 0.19 0.08 END STOCKS 3.80 2.75 4.30 4.30 0.00 4.30 4.40 0.10 Stocks to Use 30.2% 15.1% 20.5% 22.5% 23.5% 24.0% U.S. Farm Price 61.2 68.6 68.6 68.6 71.00-77.00 71.00-77.00 This material is a solicitation to enter into a derivatives transaction. The information and data contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Advance Trading Inc. ("Advance") does not warrant their accuracy or completeness. Recommendations and opinions contained herein reflect the judgment of Advance as of the date hereof, are subject to change, and are based on certain assumptions, only some of which are noted herein. Different assumptions could yield substantially different results. You are cautioned that there is no universally accepted method for analyzing financial instruments. Advance does not guarantee any results and there is no guarantee as to the liquidity of the instruments involved in our analysis. Advance, its affiliates, and its and their officers, directors, and employees may sell or purchase, for their own account or for customers, positions in futures, options or other instruments which may be similar or different from the positions referred to herein. As a matter of policy, Advance does not give tax, accounting, regulatory or legal advice to clients. Clients therefore should consult their own advisors regarding the tax, accounting and legal implications of the recommended strategies before transactions are affected. Trading commodity futures and options involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Information