EU Pigmeat Market Situation Meat Market Observatory Economic Board meeting 2 October 218
EXCHANGE RATE INDEX/EURO 14 Index of daily exchange rates of the main trading partners compared to the Euro 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 US Dollar Brazilian Real Canadian Dollar Russian Rouble Chinese Yuan UK Pound Sterling
PRODUCTION EU E V O L U T I O N T O T A L P I G + 5% + 4% + 3% + 2% + 1% + % - 1% - 2% - 3% - 4% Change in EU pigmeat slaughter (218 forecast based on GIP and experts estimations) (' heads) 216 vs. 215 217 vs. 216 218 vs. 217 Experts 218 vs. Experts 217 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year GIP 218 vs. GIP 217 Real Slaughter 216 vs. 215 217 vs. 216 218 vs. 217 Expe rts 2 18 vs. Expe rts 2 17 GIP 2 18 vs. GIP 2 17 Q1 + 1.% - 1.% + 2.6% +.9% + 1.1% Q2 + 3.2% - 3.3% + 2.9% + 1.1% + 1.1% Q3 + 1.2% -.8% + 1.2% + 2.% Q4 +.1% +.% + 1.5% + 1.5% Full year + 1.3% - 1.3% + 1.2% + 1.4%
65 364 64 721 66 398 65 386 64 433 63 735 61 61 63 384 64 47 62 692 63 23 62 736 64 69 63 977 66 132 66 147 68 65 66 942 PRODUCTION EU E V O L U T I O N T O T A L P I G EU pigmeat slaughter in 216-218, GIP and expert estimations for 218 ('1 heads) 6 5 4 3 2 1 Pigmeat Q1 Pigmeat Q2 Pigmeat Q3 Pigmeat Q4 216 217 218 GIP 218 Experts 218f
P R O D U C T I O N 23.2% 14.8% 1.8% 6.9% 6.% 5.7% 5.5% 5.4% 4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 3.9% 3.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5%.8%.5%.2% -.7% -.8% -2.1% % E V O L U T I O N IN HEADS -2.2% -2.4% -3.3% -4.8% -5.% -9.9% 2.7% Change in Pig Slaughter (' Heads) 218/217 (up to June) 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% Source: Eurostat -15% SK RO LV BG ES PL EE LT NL BE IE UK DK PT SE FR HU HR AT CY DE SI IT CZ LU EL MT FI EU
P R O D U C T I O N 23.4% 15.% 9.5% 9.1% 8.2% 7.8% 6.3% 5.9% 5.8% 4.5% 4.4% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.%.6%.5% -.3% % E V O L U T I O N IN TONNES -.7% -1.% -2.2% -3.4% -9.5% -9.7% 3.7% 3% Change in Pig Slaughter (' tonnes) 218/217 (up to June) 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% Source: Eurostat -15% SK RO LV PL BG ES IE EE NL UK LT BE DK EL SE HR HU PT FR AT IT CZ DE SI CY LU FI MT EU
PRODUCTION EU E V O L U T I O N T O T A L P I G Pig Production (E28 Slaughtering) - Tonnes 2 5 215 216 217 218 2 1 5 1 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Eurostat
EU Prices /1 kg carcass weight P I G P R I C E S EU E V O L U T I O N EU Prices 38 Evolution since last week Evolution since last month Evolution since last year Average (S-E) 146.1-1.7% - 4.6% - 1.7% Class S 147.7-1.6% - 4.2% - 1.6% Class E 143.6-1.9% - 5.1% - 11.% Piglet 35.3 /head - 2.% - 4.% - 23.1%
P R I C E S C A R C A S E S E U E V O L U T I O N AVERAGE CLASSES S & E EU evolution of the EU pig carcass prices (average class E & S) ( / 1kg/cw) Week 38 latest price ==> 146.14 EUR/1 kg/cw 19 Evolution compared same period last year : - 1.7% 175 16 145 13 115 Average (13-17) 216 217 218
P R I C E S C A R C A S E S EU E V O L U T I O N Classe E Classe S Classe R Aug-217 Aug-218 Aug-217 Aug-218 Aug-217 Aug-218 CY 211.67 22.32 EL 22.8 175.77 IT 222.2 196.36 EL 22.8 175.77 PT 199.74 174. ES 183.98 16.53 PT 198.74 174.16 SI 187.96 17.31 SK 16.72 139.76 BG 27.75 171.69 AT 19.21 169.13 LU 156.57 135.26 IT 183.6 167.99 UK 182.87 168.29 FI 126.67 132.2 UK 18.37 165.3 SE 184.2 166.15 LT 156.45 128.8 SI 177.67 162.2 FI 16.39 164.1 DE 146.14 126.64 SE 181.16 162.1 RO 189.71 16.28 UK 172.49 124.91 FI 156.16 157.78 DE 179.53 157.76 LV 11.81 123.19 AT 178.31 157.8 SK 181.51 157.75 DK 97.65 RO 186.84 155.87 LU 179.41 157.73 EE SK 175.55 155.65 ES 181.34 157.5 DE 174.74 154.21 HU 182.8 157.1 EU 193.95 167.99 HU 178.15 153.47 HR 177.59 154.19 HR 174.71 152.77 EE 166.71 151.75 ES 175.51 152.31 PL 171.92 15.85 LV 168.5 151.75 CZ 174.28 147.95 LU 172.56 15.52 LV 162.4 145.38 PL 169.62 148.5 LT 176.34 143.81 EE 157.7 146.34 FR 165.45 14.87 CZ 169.63 144.28 IE 163.99 137.77 IE 163.11 137.26 DK 16.5 135.37 LT 173.29 134.41 BE 159.19 134.77 FR 157.23 133.48 NL 153.64 133.7 NL 152.5 131.93 DK 154.58 13.1 EU 174.37 151.57 BE 149.41 125.15 EU 17.17 148.68
P R I C E S P I G L E T S EU E V O L U T I O N EU evolution of the EU average piglet prices ( /head) Week 38 latest price ==> 35.31 EUR/head 65 6 Evolution compared same period last year : - 23.1% 55 5 45 4 35 3 Average (13-17) Piglet - 216 Piglet - 217 Piglet - 218
In Euros R E M A I N D E R P I G EU E V O L U T I O N Remainder for pig fattening 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 33 37 34 34 4 53 64 65 69 61 53 48 42 4 43 53 57 62 64 69 64 52 48 43 35 36 35 3 31 4 45 48 Remainder Cost of piglet Feed cost Pig carcass price ( /1 kg) Average remainder (since March 212)
38 39 4 41 39 49 61 76 77 69 68 52 43 37 35 38 42 52 62 66 63 5 48 41 37 33 39 4 44 52 52 56 6 53 43 35 33 37 34 34 4 53 64 65 69 61 53 48 42 4 43 53 57 62 64 69 64 52 48 43 35 36 35 3 31 4 45 48 In Euros R E M A I N D E R P I G EU E V O L U T I O N Remainder for pig fattening 25 2 15 1 5 I 213 I 214 I 215 I 216 I 217 I 218 Remainder Cost of piglet Feed cost Pig carcass price ( /1 kg) Average remainder (since March 212)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Jan-Jul 18 46 135 59 72 71 937 51 641 63 8 55 918 56 77 54 499 72 276 22 612 21 73 32 368 43 179 59 838 51 789 44 193 37 655 36 967 34 487 35 245 33 66 32 788 36 351 2 543 881 11 943 45 1 83 23 1 238 138 1 556 961 1 545 97 1 331 88 1 526 563 1 59 32 1 78 568 1 938 455 2 89 363 1 91 98 2 569 87 2 386 245 2 243 357 2 627 63 Tonnes carcase weight 3 246 486 3 247 956 3 242 414 3 33 833 3 368 26 3 833 754 4 156 49 T R A D E EU T R A D E B A L A N C E EU trade of PIG products IMPORTS EXPORTS EU Trade of PIG products 4 5 4 25 4 3 75 3 5 3 25 3 2 75 2 5 2 25 2 1 75 1 5 1 25 1 75 5 25
T R A D E EU I M P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s IMPORT EU imports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes carcass weight) 214 215 216 217 Jan-Jul 18 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan- Jul 17 Switzerland 18 27 52% 2 225 61% 22 257 68% 22 922 63% 12 63 59% -5% Serbia 3 662 1% 1 819 5% 614 2% 2 694 7% 1 947 9% 33% Norway 3 192 9% 2 315 7% 1 989 6% 2 287 6% 1 746 8% 13% Chile 3 416 1% 2 896 9% 2 958 9% 2 434 7% 1 629 8% 14% USA 1 498 4% 1 769 5% 1 711 5% 1 77 5% 973 5% -2% China 917 3% 38 1% 25 1% 1 315 4% 539 3% 35% Other 4 353 12% 3 663 11% 3 1 9% 2 994 8% 1 647 8% Extra-EU 35 245 33 66 32 788 36 351 2 543 % change - 6% - 1% + 11% +.9%
T R A D E EU I M P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s EU imports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes carcass weight) IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (Tonnes c. weight) IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (Millions EUR) 2 352 2 543 18 73 2 765 2 62 2 917 1 431 1 629 1 983 1 539 1 746 1 469 23 1 947 12 273 12 747 12 63 Jan-Jul 16 Jan-Jul 17 Jan-Jul 18 25 2 15 1 5 38. 38.1 32.6 1.7 1.2 11.7 4 5.4 6 6 6.6 4.1 5.5.5 9. 11.4 9.4 Jan-Jul 16 Jan-Jul 17 Jan-Jul 18 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Switzerland Serbia Norway Chile China Other Switzerland Serbia Norway Chile China Other
T R A D E EU I M P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s Imports of selected PIG products in Tonnes (carcase weight) 4 3 5 3 2 5 2 1 5 1 5 Jan 16 216 Jan 17 217 Jan 18 218 FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS
South Korea United States Philippines (up to Jun) Canada Australia South Korea United States Philippines (up to Jun) Canada Australia Japan Mexico (up to Jun) Japan Mexico (up to Jun) Qty in 1 Tonnes China + H. Kong China + H. Kong W O R L D P I G M A R K E T I M P O R T S PIG MAIN IMPORTERS Main Importers of PIG Products (up to July) 1 4 1 2 1 8 6 4 2 Source : GTA 217 (up to July) 218 (up to July) Excl. Live animals
T R A D E E U E X P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s EU exports of selected PIG products: Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes carcass weight) 214 215 216 217 Jan-Jul 18 Compared to tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % Jan-Jul 17 China 717 33 23.6% 1 141 325 33.9% 1 866 355 44.9% 1 398 47 36.5% 785 231 35.% - 2% Japan 347 721 11.5% 364 746 1.8% 45 335 9.8% 425 91 11.1% 267 911 11.9% + 4% South Korea 227 825 7.5% 241 569 7.2% 26 726 6.3% 274 966 7.2% 2 24 8.9% + 16% Philippines 22 522 6.7% 191 876 5.7% 216 22 5.2% 25 213 6.5% 168 37 7.5% + 11% Hong Kong 48 183 13.5% 292 391 8.7% 362 492 8.7% 381 13 9.9% 131 651 5.9% - 36% USA 9 985 3.% 15 123 3.1% 116 86 2.8% 155 527 4.1% 16 63 4.7% + 14% Ukraine 16 78 3.5% 96 631 2.9% 75 674 1.8% 88 16 2.3% 55 91 2.5% + 34% Australia 73 156 2.4% 12 645 3.% 11 198 2.4% 95 38 2.5% 55 525 2.5% - 6% Serbia 62 95 2.1% 47 488 1.4% 41 128 1.% 55 52 1.4% 42 579 1.9% + 42% Vietnam 16 56.5% 38 29 1.1% 53 483 1.3% 41 549 1.1% 4 479 1.8% + 33% Taiw an 52 97 1.7% 53 71 1.6% 47 865 1.2% 64 392 1.7% 34 861 1.6% - 3% Ivory Coast 39 773 1.3% 49 766 1.5% 36 385.9% 41 433 1.1% 25 61 1.1% + 1% Other 687 924 22.7% 642 711 19.1% 573 21 13.8% 561 815 14.7% 329 35 14.7% Extra-EU 3 33 833 3 368 26 4 156 49 3 833 754 2 243 357 % change + 11% + 23% - 8% +.9%
in Millions EUR T R A D E EU E X P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s EU exports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes carcass weight) EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes carc. weight) 2 496 451 2 223 417 2 243 357 67 567 637 841 69 52 2 528 131 862 137 52 25 171 131 651 242 8 152 21 168 37 172 253 2 24 256 864 267 911 Tons (cw). 3 2 5 2 1 5 1 EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Millions EUR) 4 426 4 532 4 171 1 253 1 468 1 456 285 123 37 284 186 221 171 474 732 471 827 817 5 4 5 4 3 5 3 2 5 2 1 5 1 177 435 799 267 785 231 Jan-Jul 16 Jan-Jul 17 Jan-Jul 18 5 1 75 1 27 1 35 Jan-Jul 16 Jan-Jul 17 Jan-Jul 18 1 5 China Japan South Korea Philippines Hong Kong Other China Japan South Korea Philippines Hong Kong Other
T R A D E EU E X P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s EU Exports of selected PIG products in Tonnes (carcase weight) 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Jan 16 216 Jan 17 217 Jan 18 218 FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS
Chile Canada China + H. Kong Brazil Mexico (up to Jun) Russia (up to Jun) Chile Canada China + H. Kong Brazil Mexico (up to Jun) Russia (up to Jun) Qty in 1 Tonnes United States United States EU EU W O R L D P I G M A R K E T E X P O R T S PIG MAIN EXPORTERS Main Exporters of PIG Products (up to July) 2 5 2 1 5 1 5 Source : GTA 217 (up to July) 218 (up to July) Excl. Live animals
W O R L D P I G M A R K E T PIG PRICES EU, BR, CAN, US World weekly average Pig prices 216-218 in Euro/ 1kg carcase (EU, Brazil, Canada and USA) 148.96 89.53 88.9 72.4 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 EU = weighted average of MS prices for classes S (64.12%) and E (35.88%). US = weekly USDA national weighted average carcass prices (https://mpr.datamart.ams.usda.gov/amsdashboard/swine/swine_dashboard_option_1.html) BR = average of Valor Vista prices in main producing states (cepea.esalq.usp.br/br/indicador/suino.aspx) CAN = Quebec Index 1 Hogs Weighted Average prices (agr.gc.ca) EU US BR CAN 7 5
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