26 1 2009 1 Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Vol. 26 January No. 1 2009 :100221175 (2009) 0120065207 3 g (, 100101) (2007 12 14 ; 2008 6 3 ) Guo TY. Study on the quantitative relationships between regional input fluctuations and economic growth in China. J ournal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2009,26( 1) :6571,,,, 19812003.,,,,,.,,.,,,, F127 1,,.,,,.,.,,, [1,2 ], : (1) [35 ] ; (2) [68 ] ; (3) [912 ].,. 20,,.,,., 3 (40635026) (40671054) ge2mail :gouty @igsnrr. ac. cn
66 26. 2 211 20 50, [1315 ].,.,,, [15 ],,, [1619 ].,,,,, [1618 ] ;, [20 ].,,,,.,.,. 20 80 90,,,,,,.,,,,. [17 ]. 20 90,,,,,.,,,,, [17 ].,,,?,.,. 20 70,,,, [2124 ]., [15 ].,,,. 212, : Y = f ( K,L ; X), (1), Y ; K,L ; X [15,17 ]. (1),,i, [15,17,24,25 ] : y i = 1 + 2 k i + 3 l i + 4 x i + i, (2) (2),, y i, k i, l i, x i i ; 1, k ( k = 2, 3, 4) ; i.,, (2)
1 : 67 E( i k i, l i, x i ), i.,(2), (2),., (2),(2) (3) [15,17 ] : y i = 1 + 2 k i + 3 l i + 4 x i + 5 KI i + 6 XI i + 7 CI i + i, (3) (3), KI, XI, CI i ; 5 6 7 i ; i ; (2).,,, (3) 2 3 4 ;,,(3) 5 6 7 [15,17 ]. 3 311,(3),. ( ).,,.,,.,. 25 19812003., 19812003.,,.,19812003,,. 12 3. 25.,,,, [15,2325 ],(4) : :50 (1999) : (20002004). :,,, ;,, ;,,. 6,. :S i = a i X 2 i + b i X i + c i S i = A i e B i X i,, S i i ; a i b i c i A i B i ;e ; X i.
68 26 F j i = 1 DF j i T ( S j i, t - S j i, t ) 2 t = 1 gs j i, (4) 1 19812000 2 19812000 3 19812000 (4), F j i ( j = 1,2,3) i KI i XI i CI i ; S j i, ts j i, t ( j = 1,2,3) i,gs j i ( j = 1,2,3) i, T, DF j i ( j = 1,2,3) i., DF j i T - 3 ;, DF j i T - 2.,,., : I j i = min ( I j ipoly, I j iexp ), j = 1,2,3 (5) (5) I j i ( j = 1,2,3) i, I j ipoly I j iexp ( j = 1,2,3), i [26,27 ]. 312, (2), (2) (3) (2), i., (OLS) (3). (6) (3) : y i = 01587 (31601) + 01561 k i (51627) + 01279 l i (11285) + 01183 x i (11129) - 01235 KI i ( - 11213) R 2 = 01748, F = 71158. - 01598 XI i ( - 21256) - 01239 CI i ( - 11265) + i, (6) (6),,, ().,,
1 : 69 75 %. 313,,.,, ;,.,, 1 % 01561 %,1 %01279 %, 1 %01183 %,,,.,, 1 % 1 % 1 %01235 % 01598 %01239 %,,,.,20 80,,,, ;,,,,,,.,.,,.,, ;,.,,,. 4,,.,.,,,.,,, 75 %, 20,,,, ;,25 %.,,,.,.
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1 : 71 Study on the quantitative relationships bet ween regional input fluctuations and economic gro wth in China GUO Teng2Yun ( Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China) Abstract Using the extended production function as the analysis framework, an analysis model of regional input factor fluctuations and regional economic growth is constructed. Applying 19812003 data on regional GDP and its components, labor inputs, exports of 25 provincial regions in China, the fluctuations of capital input ( KI), final consumption ( CI) and exports ( XI) are calculated for every region as the relative standard errors around the respective best2fitted trends during the period 1981 2003. These fluctuation measures and the data above2 mentioned are then employed to estimate the analysis model, which controls the effects of capital, labor and exports, and the fluctuations. The estimation result of the analysis model shows that, on one hand, the growth rates of regional capital, labor inputs and exports have positive effects on regional economic growth in China during the period, in which the positive effect of capital input is the most among the three inputs, capital, labor, exports, the one of the labor input is the second to it, the one of exports is the least among the three ; on the other hand, the fluctuations KI, CI and XI have adverse influences on regional economic growth in China during the same period, in which the deleterious effect of XI is the most among the three fluctuations, the one of CI is the second to it, the one of KI is the third to it. This research, in some sense, shows not only the increases of capital input, labor input and exports will aggrandize the regional economic outputs, but also the decreases of the fluctuations of exports, final consumption and capital input will also enhance the regional economic outputs. Key words regional input, input fluctuation, regional growth, quantitative relationship, China