Where and how do we find growth in global equities? Andrea Cicione Head of Strategy

Where and how do we find growth in global equities? Andrea Cicione Head of Strategy

Where and how do we find growth? In short, it s tough 1 The global cycle is maturing 2 Corporate earnings are falling 3 But alpha can still be captured 2

Where and how do we find growth? In short, it s tough 1 The global cycle is maturing 2 Corporate earnings are falling 3 But alpha can still be captured 3

OECD Global LI (% y/y) A slowing global cycle Global growth below trend and slowing explaining recent poor equity returns 6 Recovery LI < 1, y/y > Expansion LI > 1, y/y > 15 OECD Global LI MSCI World y/y (rhs) 8 4 14 6 13 2 211-12 Euro crisis Latest Mar-26 12 4 11 2 1-2 -4 Slow dow n 28-9 Global Financial Crisis Dow nturn LI < 1, y/y < OECD Global LI LI > 1, y/y < -6 97 98 99 1 11 12 13 Source: OECD, LSR 99-2 98-4 97 96-6 95-8 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 216 Source: OECD, MSCI, LSR 4

Credit cycle maturing Leverage is increasing in the US leading to credit market re-pricing Ex-Financials, Tech Ex-Financials, Tech, Energy Jan-9 to Mar-11 Oct-11 to Jun-15 Jul-15 to Jun-16 Latest 3.8 3.3 Net debt-to-ebitda MSCI USA 25 225 CDX NA IG (bp) 2.8 2 175 2.3 15 125 Increasing leverage 1.8 1 1.3.8 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, LSR 75 5 S&P 5 25 4 8 12 16 2 24 Source: Bloomberg, LSR 5

Where and how do we find growth? In short, it s tough 1 The global cycle is maturing 2 Corporate earnings are falling 3 But alpha can still be captured 6

Corporate profits stagnating US profits stagnating despite low rates and things are worse elsewhere US corporate profits (IVA, CCAdj) UST 2y yield (rhs) Surprise Change y/y 23 % 8 1% Q1 216 Earnings 21 7 % 19 6 17 5-1% 15 4-2% 13 11 3-3% 9 2 7 1-4% 5 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216-5% US Euro area Japan UK Source: BEA, Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 7

S&P 5 Energy Materials Industrials C. Discr. C. Staples Healthcare Financials Tech Telecom Utilities Not just a commodity story Ex-Energy, ex-materials EPS still ok but weakness spreading to key sectors Energy+Materials Ex-Energy, Ex-Materials Sales Growth Earnings Growth 3 1 3% 25 EPS (12m trailing) MSCI USA 9 2% 1% % -1% 2 8-2% -3% 15 7 6-4% -5% -6% -7% 1 5-8% -9% -1% 5 4-11% -12% S&P 5 - Q1 216 results - y/y changes 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 3 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, LSR Source: Bloomberg 8

Poor productivity to squeeze margins Margins are holding up for now but slowing productivity remains a drag 25 % Q1 215 Q1 216 MSCI US operating margins 8 Unit labour costs (y/y) Productivity (y/y) S&P 5 operating margins (rhs) % % 15 2 6 14 15 4 13 1 2 12 11 5 1-2 9-5 -4 8-1 Mkt FN MT IN EN CS HC TC UT CD IT -6 199 1993 1996 1999 22 25 28 211 214 7 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, LSR Source: Bloomberg 9

Valuations expensive in DMs DM price-to-earnings ratio vs cycle EM price-to-earnings ratio vs cycle 4 4 1.7 1.7 (.4) 1.6 1.9 1.4.6.9.7.9.2.6. (.5).7.6.4 1. (1.1).3 35 7.5-year z-score 35 7.5-year z-score 3 Key +/- 1 stdev Last Avg 7.5y range 3 Key +/- 1 stdev Last Avg 7.5y range 25 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 5 US CA JP AU GB CH DE FR IT ES CN IN KR TW BR MX RU ZA TR EM Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, LSR Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, LSR 1

Where and how do we find growth? In short, it s tough 1 The global cycle is maturing 2 Corporate earnings are falling 3 But alpha can still be captured 11

Quant strategies European sector selection, market neutral US sector selection, market neutral 19 Strategy MSCI World HFRI Equity Market Neutral 17 Strategy MSCI World HFRI Equity Market Neutral 17 16 15 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 9 1 9 7 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, LSR 8 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, LSR 12

Quant strategies European sector selection, market neutral US sector selection, market neutral Strategy M kt Neutral HFRI Quant Out-of-sample Return 8.% 13.1% 13.1% YTD Ret 9.9% -.4%.9% Ann.Ret 12.66% 2.53% 2.52% Volat ilit y (annualized) 1.6% 2.6% 6.5% Sharpe Ratio 1.11.66.26 Dow nside Dev (annualized) 6.1% 1.7% 4.2% Sort ino Rat io 2.7 1.46.61 Bet a -.15.14.39 Correlat ion -.2.63.79 Alpha (annualized) 13.5% 1.26%.41% % Positive weeks 59.6% % Posit ive mont hs 63.3% 69.5% 55.9% M aximum w eekly loss -6.4% M aximum Draw dow n -11.2% -5.5% -12.1% Strategy M kt Neutral HFRI Quant Out-of-sample Return 4.8% 13.1% 12.6% Volat ilit y (annualized) 1.5% 2.6% 6.7% Sharpe Ratio.6.64.24 Dow nside Dev (annualized) 5.4% 1.7% 7.5% Sort ino Rat io 1.3 1.44.32 Bet a (vs S&P5) -.9.15 -.2 Correlat ion (vs S&P5) -.11.71 -.13 Alpha (ann. Vs S&P5) 7.96%.53% 7.39% % Posit ive mont hs 6.7% 68.3% 56.7% M aximum mont hly loss -6.1% -2.8% -5.4% M aximum Draw dow n -11.6% -5.5% -12.1% Source: LSR Source: LSR 13

Brexit opportunities Remain and Leave neck and neck in polls but the Undecided seem to favour Remain Leave Remain Undecided Remain Undecided (rhs, inv) 7 6 6 55 5 5 5 1 4 3 45 15 2 2 4 25 1 35 3 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 3 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 35 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 14

Brexit opportunities Strong Remain-Undecided correlation Virtually no Leave-Undecided relationship 6 Remain y = -.8x + 57.8 R 2 =.7 6 Leave y = -.2x + 42.1 R 2 =.1 55 55 5 5 45 45 4 4 35 35 3 Undecided 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 3 Undecided 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 Source: Bloomberg, LSR Source: Bloomberg, LSR 15

Brexit strategy EU-exposed UK stocks to rally if Bremain Europe also dragged down by Brexit risk GBP/EUR Bloomberg BREXIT Equity Index* (rhs) S&P 5 Stoxx 6 Europe GBP/EUR (rhs) 1.5 17 14 1.45 1.45 1.4 1.35 16 15 1 96 92 1.4 1.35 14 88 1.3 1.25 1.2 13 12 84 8 76 1.3 1.25 (* ) RR/, BARC, BKG, NXT, TCG, VOD, STHR, KGF, SVT, RGU 1.15 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 11 72 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 1.2 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg, LSR 16