27 November 2017 Major Market Indicators Mkt. Turn.(mn) 104,600 135,900 157,400 Stock Advances 985 688 939 Stock Declines 664 1,024 752 HSI 29,866 29,707 30,003 Change +158-295 +185 HSI Turn.($bn) 42.44 56.16 66.13 HSCEI 11,908 11,737 11,958 Change +171-221 +84 HSCEI Turn.($bn) 20.22 31.19 34.63 HSI Technical Indicators 10-days MA 29,406 50-days MA 28,519 250-days MA 25,533 14-days RSI 64.3 Primary resistance 30,030 Primary support 29,406 HSCEI Technical Indicators 10-days MA 11,686 50-days MA 11,445 250-days MA 10,536 14-days RSI 59.5 Primary resistance 12,101 Primary support 11,701 HSI Futures Nov 29,910 29,820 30,046 Volume 169,884 169,267 141,350 Open interests 123,596 137,888 146,974 Dec 29,939 29,856 30,068 Volume 50,796 18,585 7,793 Market Overview The Hang Seng Index is expected to trade at 29,700-30,100 today After falling sharply in the previous trading day, Hong Kong equities rebounded last Friday. Besides, A share reversed early weakness, also provided further support to HK market Hang Seng Index rose 158 points and closed at 29,866 points. HSCEI closed at 11,908 points, increasing 171 points. Turnover was $104.6 billion. The Chinese insurance stock rose, in which China Taiping (966) jumped around 9%. On the other hand, the blue-chip automotive stocks suffered from selling pressure, while other peers closed mixed. Thanksgiving online sales climbed to record high, US retail stocks rose last Friday and helped to support US stock market. The Dow rose 32 points (to 23,558) while the Nasdaq rose 22 points (to 6,889). On the other hand, ahead of the oil producing countries meeting at the end of November, oil price continued its recent strength, rising 1.6% to US$59 per barrel. Looking ahead this week, investors will eye on Powell s Senate Testimony on Tuesday as well as Yellen s congress testimony on Wednesday. Amid concern of financial policy tightening, both A share market and HK stock market retreated from its high. However, as HK stock market turnover remained high, while US dollar turned weak, HK stock market momentum could be sustained. Initial support stands at 10 Day SMA. Technical Analysis HSI rebounded on Friday and closed with a white candlestick but the index was embedded within previous day trading range. The index was near the upper line of Bollinger Band(30,030 points)and the MACD bullish gap remained. The first resistance should be 30,030 points, and the next resistance is 30,500 points. The first support is 10-DMA 29,406 points, and the next support is 20-DMA 29,056 points. HSI Chart Open interests 65,665 41,395 33,657 HSCEI Futures Nov 11,921 11,778 11,967 Volume 157,759 132,074 106,992 Open interests 174,130 205,759 221,625 Dec 11,933 11,784 11,975 Volume 78,318 35,238 19,921 Open interests 147,602 114,873 95,352 Sources:etnet
Daily Focus Investment Daily Icicle (8429): IPO Brief Icicle is a marketing production company headquartered in Hong Kong with a focus on printing, packaging and sourcing. Icicle produces marketing and branding materials and contents in Hong Kong and the PRC, has over 18 years of experience in project management and production of printed marketing and branding materials. Icicle further expanded business to the production of creative contents for marketing and branding purposes for use in the emerging digital media in 2013 and in the form of video since 2014, and subsequently expanded to cover marketing production for use in the form of photographs, social media contents, websites and other digital media. Physical media production and management accounted for 90% of turnover while digital media and cross media development each accounted for single digit of revenue. Industry sector IPO Brief Printing Issue price (HK$) 0.48-0.60 Total share offer size (HK$ mn) 57.6-72.0 Historical P/E(x) 20.9-26.2 Sponsor Dealing of shares Success New Spring 8-Dec-2017 Icicle provide services to Hong Kong and the PRC clients who are international and local brand owners, including global financial institutions, luxury brand retailers and local retail chain stores. During the Track Record Period, Icicle served over 340 brand owners from different industries. Of which, financial and insurance companies are major clients which accounted for 30-40% of total turnover. Retail clients also accounted for 30% of total sales. Besides, HK client accounted for 90% of sales. Since 1 June 2017 to now, Icicle had secured 1,810 new projects relating to physical media production and management, digital media production and cross media development. Such new projects have a total contract value of HK$50.1mn, total outstanding contract sum of existing projects on hand amounted to HK$56.7 million. Given the estimated non-recurring listing expenses of HK$12.0 million are expected to be charged in FY17 full year results, a net loss will be expected for Icicle. Analyst: Chua Tit Hong, CFA GAC (2238) : First MPV model debuted on Guangzhou Autoshow The 15th Guangzhou International Automobile Exhibition closed on last Sunday. GAC displayed many car models on the exhibition, in which the first MPV model Trumpchi GM8 and new generation Camry caught the eye of consumers. GAC (2238) Info Closed price 20.60 The price of Trumpchi GM8 ranged from RMB180k to RMB 270k, which is expected to launch in December. Comparing with the car model Buick GL8, both car models have similar functional performance. But GM8 has much lower threshold price. According to the website of Buick, the threshold price of GL8 is nearly RMB290k. Trumpchi is one of the major sales growth momentums of GAC. Regarding to the sales data of GAC in October, the accumulate sales volume in 10M17 was Expected P/E (X) Dividend yield (%) 52 week high 52 week low 14RSI 10.6 2.6 22.05 8.66 53.3 421,672 units, representing growth rate of 41.8% YoY. The brand achieved around 84.3% of the sales volume target. Looking forward, there are few factors to support the sales growth of Trumpchi. Firstly, GAC first time entered the MPV segment to enhance the product mix. Secondly, both SUV GS3 and GS7 had popular market response after launch. Thirdly, we expect the sales volume of flagship product GS8 will ramp up again as the bottle neck of automatic transmission gearbox resolved. On the other hand, due to the constraint of capacity, the sales volume of GAC Toyota increased 7.2% YoY to 372,231 units in 10M17. We expect the sales growth rate will accelerate in FY18 because (1) new capacity will start operation in 1Q18 and (2) the launch of new generation Camry. All in all, GAC had a robust sales performance throughout the year, especially Trumpchi and its JVs launched many car models, http://www.kgieworld.com 27 November 2017 2
providing new momentum for sales growth for FY18. In addition, PRC will phase out the tax cut policy for small sized passenger car from 2018, GAC will have less impact from the policy as the Company had more mid- and large- sized products. Strategically, the projected P/E ratio of GAC is 8.9x, which is lower than the peer average. We recommend to accumulate when price correction. Analyst: Ho Kai Chun, CFA, FRM http://www.kgieworld.com 27 November 2017 3
Shanghai/Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Statistics Investment Daily SH Connect SZ Connect Combined Southbound Balance (RMB bn) 10.35 10.32 20.67 Balance as % of Quota Amount 98.54 98.33 98.44 Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks(SH-HK Connect Southbound) Stock Name Stock code Buy Trades (RMB) Sell Trades (RMB) Turnover (RMB) TENCENT 700 613,396,400 743,397,800 1,356,794,200 ICBC 1398 418,340,700 422,215,792 840,556,492 PING AN 2318 242,831,075 286,435,750 529,266,825 HSBC HOLDINGS 5 5,774,540 315,439,616 321,214,156 CHINA TAIPING 966 94,255,470 200,835,890 295,091,360 CPIC 2601 188,566,680 98,527,870 287,094,550 SMIC 981 144,670,340 136,032,850 280,703,190 CHINA LIFE 2628 17,734,700 222,751,400 240,486,100 GEELY AUTO 175 61,081,900 159,278,100 220,360,000 EVERGRANDE 3333 72,939,650 124,977,100 197,916,750 Sources: HKEx Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks(SZ-HK Connect Southbound) Stock Name Stock code Buy Trades (RMB) Sell Trades (RMB) Turnover (RMB) TENCENT 700 303,109,560 204,378,720 507,488,280 ZTE 763 94,552,920 114,625,770 209,178,690 PING AN 2318 156,818,675 20,706,175 177,524,850 CHINA TAIPING 966 126,426,190 19,388,400 145,814,590 SMIC 981 64,205,540 64,441,130 128,646,670 GEELY AUTO 175 34,911,850 71,832,300 106,744,150 SUNAC 1918 82,365,600 18,589,950 100,955,550 NCI 1336 21,148,180 75,032,120 96,180,300 FUTURE LAND 1030 22,063,380 63,507,560 85,570,940 CHINA VANKE 2202 63,183,140 9,487,285 72,670,425 Other Statistics Ten Most Actively Traded Stocks Stock Name Code Change Closed Price Turnover(Million) TENCENT 700-0.91% 415.80 13817.2 PING AN 2318 3.52% 83.75 5708.8 HKEX 388-0.40% 247.00 2308.8 CCB 939 1.59% 7.01 1822.5 GEELY AUTO 175-1.76% 27.85 1570.6 CHINA LIFE 2628 0.75% 26.90 1531.9 ICBC 1398 1.14% 6.23 1507.4 HSBC HOLDINGS 5 0.20% 76.30 1444.4 AIA 1299 1.26% 68.35 1348.4 CHINA TAIPING 966 8.75% 32.95 981.2 http://www.kgieworld.com 27 November 2017 4
Ten Short Sell Stocks Stock Name Code Short Sell Turnover Short Sell Ratio TENCENT 00700.HK 680.12M 13.82B 4.92% CSOP A50 ETF 02822.HK 620.23M 1.36B 45.75% PING AN 02318.HK 539.24M 5.71B 9.45% HS H ETF 02828.HK 403.25M 611.34M 65.96% TRACKER FUND 02800.HK 403.18M 1.10B 36.80% CCB 00939.HK 290.86M 1.82B 15.96% HKEX 00388.HK 279.18M 2.31B 12.09% ISHARES A50 02823.HK 278.31M 1.19B 23.46% AIA 01299.HK 236.91M 1.35B 17.57% BANK OF CHINA 03988.HK 213.74M 886.90M 24.10% Source: AAStocks Economic Calendars Date Country Event Survey Prior Mon H.K. China Gas Holdings (0384) releases interim earnings U.S. Oct. New Home Sales 615K 667K Tue U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds hearing on nomination of Jerome Powell to be chairman of the Federal Reserve Sep. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (YoY) 6.07% Nov. Consumer Confidence Index 124.0 125.9 Wed Japan Oct. Retail Trade (YoY) 2.2% U.S. 3Q GDP (YoY Adjustment) 3.4% 3.0% Federal Reserve releases Beige Book Thu MSCI Quarterly Review becomes effective after trading hours H.K. Oct. Retail Sales Value (YoY) 5.6% China Nov. Official Manufacturing PMI 51.6 Austria OPEC semi-annual conference Eurozone Oct. Unemployment Rate 8.9% Nov. CPI (YoY) 1.4% U.S. Oct. PCE Core (YoY) 1.3% Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 25) Continuing Claims (Nov. 18) Fri China Nov. Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.0 Japan Oct. CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) 0.7% U.S. Nov. ISM Manufacturing 58.3 58.7 All the above named KGI analyst(s) is SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Asia Ltd to carry on the relevant regulated activities. Each of them and/or his/her associate(s) does not have any financial interest in the respectively covered stock, issuer and/or new listing applicant. Disclaimer Some of KGI Asia Ltd. equity research and earnings estimates are available electronically on KGIEWORLD.COM. Please contact your KGI representative for information. The information and opinions in this report are those of KGI Asia Ltd. internal research activity. KGI Asia Ltd. does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. The information and opinions contained in this report are subject to change without any notice. No person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss however arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not to be construed as an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities and/or to participate in any investment activity. This report is being supplied solely for informational purposes and may not be reproduced or published (in whole or in part) for any purpose without the prior written consent of KGI Asia Ltd.. Members of the KGI group and their affiliates may provide services to any companies and affiliates of such companies mentioned herein. Members of the KGI group, their affiliates and their directors, officers and employees may from time to time have a position in any securities mentioned herein. http://www.kgieworld.com 27 November 2017 5