Sensex (34316) / Nifty (10304) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart First half in the week gone by was very much on expected lines as we saw continuation of previous week s relief move towards the 10700mark. This move was aided by some of the macro factors like Crude oil cooling off from higher levels and respite in domestic currency after recent relentless weakness. However, this ecstasy did not last too long as index nosedived after making intra-week high of 10710.15 on Wednesday, which was then followed by yet another bout of selling to pare down all gains accumulated in the previous week. In last couple of sessions, index resumed its recent downtrend; but, the way it has closed on Friday, somehow indicates a possible exhaustion in the selling momentum. Because there was no major follow through selling seen in index and to support it, banking and midcap indices were outperforming benchmarks by a fair margin. Hence, as of now, we believe that the sellers are a bit exhausted and the recent support zone of 10200 10138 may well be defended for a while. Technically speaking, last week we had mentioned about the positive crossover in RSI- Smoothened on daily chart, which is still intact. In addition, last couple of sessions correction took a support precisely at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent relief move. Considering all these evidences, some sort of respite in this week cannot be ruled out. But, since, of late, market is in no mood to please traders/investors fraternity, we would rather wait for some kind of reversal. If we see index surpassing and staying beyond Friday s high of 10380, then our assumption would get confirmed and in this case, we may see index rebounding back to 10550 10700 levels. Nifty Bank Outlook - (25086) After a pullback move, the Nifty Bank index again corrected during last week post retracing about 38.2% of the recent down move. Although, the index showed relative outperformance to the Nifty index on Friday as it traded in a range and ended the day above the 25000 mark. Going ahead, we expect index now to undergo some timecorrection for a while; but range would be slightly wider. It s advisable to keep booking existing shorts and ideally should adopt a stock centric approach. Key Levels Support 1 10200 Resistance 1 10380 Support 2 10138 Resistance 2 10450 Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart If we observe the lower time frame charts, it is seen that the last week's high also coincides with the hourly '200 SMA' and the index has then retraced about 61.8% of the pullback move in the last couple of sessions. Going ahead, it would be crucial to see how index behaves around its support of 24880. A move above the Friday's high of 25278 could lead to another leg of pullback whereas breach of the support of 24880 could then lead to a continuation of the correction. Hence, short-term traders are advised to keep a tab on the range of 24880-25278 and trade in the direction of the breakout. Traders with open positions should keep a stop loss beyond the mentioned levels. Key Levels Support 1 24940 Resistance 1 25278 Support 2 24880 Resistance 2 25550
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.59%. Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 21.47% as market closed at 10303.55 levels. The Nifty October future closed with a discount of 0.35 points against a discount of 2.00 points in last trading session. The November series closed at a premium of 54.25 points. The INDIA VIX has increased from 17.98 to 19.78. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has decreased from 1.11 to 1.07. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are TORNTPOWER, HCC, MCX, NTPC and ADANIPOWER. Nifty Vs Views FIIs sold to the tune of Rs. 618 crores in cash market segment. At the same time, they were net sellers worth Rs. 438 crores in index futures with rise in open interest, indicating short formation took place on Friday s trading session. In options front, they sold of Rs. 2584 crores with rise in open interest. As far as Nifty options activities are considered, huge addition was seen in 10300-10600 call options. On the flip side, 9700-10200 put options added decent positions and good amount of unwinding was also witnessed in 10400-10600 strikes. Maximum open interest for October series now stood at 11000 followed by 10600 call and in put options is firmly placed in 10000 strike. We started-off the week on a positive note and rallied towards 10700 mark, but this up move was short lived as once again massive selling emerged to bring index towards 10250. In index futures, mixed positions were formed last week. At the same time, put writer of 10000 strikes also lightered some of their positions. Stronger hands continued selling in index futures along with longs in index puts. Considering the above data, we would advise traders to remain light in index and adopt stock specific approach as of now. Gainers REPCOHOME 854100 39.35 314.05-7.72 HINDZINC 9760000 29.02 286.45 4.99 TORNTPOWER 2247000 25.67 235.45 1.65 ACC 1432800 23.43 1424.40-7.40 MINDTREE 5486400 21.50 813.90-17.01 ORIENTBANK 15774000 15.51 62.90-3.00 SREINFRA 17500000 15.37 27.60-12.34 RPOWER 57525000 15.35 27.35 0.00 Losers JETAIRWAYS 6570000-12.74 229.70 5.85 AMBUJACEM 12047500-8.33 209.20-4.48 CHOLAFIN 844500-8.06 1113.70-1.64 NIITTECH 1964250-7.39 1238.25 3.59 DHFL 18880500-6.61 210.55-8.28 MOTHERSUMI 14616000-6.45 256.05 2.26 EQUITAS 10372000-5.47 126.05 0.68 IGL 3135000-5.24 247.60 2.27 Historical Volatility HV MINDTREE 95.26 HCLTECH 42.93 ACC 52.93 IBULHSGFIN 136.33 SIEMENS 50.35 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.07 0.84 BANKNIFTY 0.79 0.80 RELIANCE 0.42 0.47 ICICIBANK 0.51 0.74 INFY 0.68 0.64
FII Statistics for October 19, 2018 Turnover on October 19, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 4294.41 4732.33 (437.91) 284993 22255.05 3.38 106409.57 108993.99 (2584.41) 1033414 81939.79 3.40 18912.79 20576.46 (1663.67) 1342721 85032.65 1.79 10942.88 10657.46 285.42 143029 9290.23 0.87 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 361615 30990.19 3.31 7366907 648840.64-66.47 1196345 72441.17 11.00 909427 64872.32 9.82 Total 140559.65 144960.24 (4400.58) 2804157 198517.73 2.49 TOTAL 9834294 817144.32 1.22 Nifty Spot = 10303.55 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 10300 95.10 Sell 10400 50.25 44.85 55.15 10344.85 Buy 10600 93.30 Sell 10500 59.35 33.95 66.05 10566.05 Buy 10300 95.10 Sell 10500 22.90 72.20 127.80 10372.20 Buy 10600 93.30 Sell 10400 37.30 56.00 144.00 10544.00 Buy 10400 50.25 Sell 10500 22.90 27.35 72.65 10427.35 Buy 10500 59.35 Sell 10400 37.30 22.05 77.95 10477.95 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 299 307 314 322 329 ASIANPAINT 1,181 1,208 1,248 1,275 1,314 AXISBANK 543 553 565 575 587 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,448 2,479 2,511 2,542 2,574 BAJFINANCE 1,987 2,064 2,131 2,208 2,275 BAJAJFINSV 5,117 5,268 5,391 5,542 5,665 BPCL 274 279 285 290 297 BHARTIARTL 280 284 288 292 297 INFRATEL 257 261 265 268 272 CIPLA 616 625 635 644 655 COALINDIA 270 273 277 279 284 DRREDDY 2,503 2,528 2,555 2,580 2,608 EICHERMOT 20,757 21,191 21,785 22,220 22,814 GAIL 332 338 348 355 365 GRASIM 855 865 877 887 899 HCLTECH 911 935 977 1,001 1,043 HDFCBANK 1,946 1,957 1,969 1,980 1,992 HDFC 1,582 1,621 1,691 1,730 1,800 HEROMOTOCO 2,602 2,657 2,731 2,786 2,859 HINDALCO 219 223 227 231 235 HINDPETRO 205 211 214 219 222 HINDUNILVR 1,526 1,552 1,569 1,595 1,612 IBULHSGFIN 556 605 688 737 819 ICICIBANK 304 310 316 321 327 IOC 130 132 133 135 136 INDUSINDBK 1,543 1,560 1,587 1,603 1,630 INFY 673 678 683 688 693 ITC 282 286 289 292 295 JSW STEEL 347 355 363 371 379 KOTAKBANK 1,143 1,171 1,189 1,216 1,234 LT 1,175 1,191 1,201 1,217 1,227 M&M 718 730 744 755 770 MARUTI 6,563 6,660 6,812 6,909 7,062 NTPC 157 159 162 164 167 ONGC 154 157 160 164 167 POWERGRID 185 187 189 191 194 RELIANCE 1,053 1,077 1,094 1,118 1,135 SBIN 255 258 261 264 267 SUNPHARMA 582 596 604 618 625 TCS 1,845 1,879 1,904 1,938 1,963 TATAMOTORS 170 173 176 178 182 TATASTEEL 537 546 554 563 572 TECHM 674 682 697 705 720 TITAN 766 777 794 805 821 ULTRACEMCO 3,470 3,540 3,595 3,665 3,720 UPL 619 632 640 653 661 VEDANTA 194 203 208 217 223 WIPRO 314 318 322 327 331 YESBANK 203 210 220 228 238 ZEEL 440 448 459 466 478
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