35 4 2011 7 Vol. 35 No. 4 July 2011 94 Population Research 2010 2 3 1595 Logistic An Empirical Research on Behavior of Participation in the New Rural Old - Age Insurance System An Aspect of Confidence Analysis Wu Yufeng Abstract Based on the 2010 survey data of 1595 villagers this article analyzes the influence of confidence on villagers' participation in the new rural old - age insurance system.the results of factor analysis show that the confidence can be divided into village - confidence and relatives - confidence. The results of logistic analysis find that the village - confidence is good for the villagers' participation in the system though the mechanism of both internet communication and government propaganda while the relatives - confidence makes no good for participation in the system.such findings fill the gap of lack of research on noneconomic factors on participation in the new rural old - age insurance system by providing a theoretical explanation on this issue. Keywords Village - confidence Relatives - confidence The New Rural Old - age Insurance System Authors Wu Yufeng is PhD Candidate of Social Security the Department of Sociology Huazhong University of Science and Technology.Email wyf03001@ sohu.com
4 95 2009 2010 6 32 4 63. 82% 1 68 68 2010 68 57. 59% 2 1 Bergelsdijk 2001 Knack& Philip Keefer 1997 Knack& Paul zack 2001 Grootaert 1999 2005 2005 2009 Guiso et al. 2004 Guiso et al. 2008 Pasini &Georgarakos 2009 Biagio 1999 Guiso et al. 2004 2006a 2004 2006b 2005 12 2009 1 2. 2010-07 - 24 001 21. 2010-04 - 23 006
96 35 2004 2004 2006 1757 2007 2006 Zand 1972 Szulanski 1996 2008 2010 2009 2009
4 97 2 2. 1 2010 5 ~ 8 16 ~ 59 800 746 700 672 200 177 1595 64. 4% 33. 2% 30 7. 2% 31 ~ 40 33. 8% 41 ~ 50 51% 51 ~ 59 8% 75% 2. 2 1595 1197 75% 398 25% 75% 2. 3 2006 7 4 Likert 4 1 7 2 2 1 2 70% 2. 4
98 35 1 Table 1 Results Of Factor Analysis of Trust 0. 167 0. 821 0. 701 4 1 0. 180 0. 809 0. 686 0. 675 0. 476 0. 682 0. 776 0. 360 0. 732 0. 838 0. 227 0. 754 0. 862 0. 106 0. 754 0. 725 0. 093 0. 534 3. 822 1. 021 4. 843 % 54. 604 14. 587 69. 191 5 5 1 0 3 1 0 2 1 0 2 Table 2 2 Channels of Information Access % 1570 735 46. 8 1590 506 31. 8 1580 127 8. 00 1583 917 57. 9 1582 641 40. 5 5 4 1 Alpha = 0. 8463 2. 5 6 2 1 3 3 Logistic 3. 1 12
4 99 Logistic 2 2 4 1 2 3 4 3 4 Table 3 3 Measurements and Definitions of Variables = 0= 1 16-59 = 0 = 1 = 0 = 1 0-21 0-6 5000 = 1 5001-10000 = 2 10001-15000 = 3 15001-20000 = 4 20001-25000 = 5 25001-30000 = 6 30001-35000 = 7 35001-40000 = 8 40001-50000 = 9 50001 = 10 = 1 = 0 = 1 = 0 = 1 = 0 = 1= 0 = 4 = 3 = 2 = 1 = 4 = 3 = 2 = 1 = 1= 0 = 1= 0 = 1 = 2 = 3 = 4 = 1 = 2 = 3 = 4 1 2 2
100 35 0. 01 20. 4% 4 Logistic Table 4 The Logistic Regression Analysis of Trust and Farmers Participation 1 2 3 4 B Exp B B Exp B B Exp B B Exp B 0. 186 *** 1. 204 0. 126 * 1. 134 0. 133 1. 142 0. 060 1. 061-0. 013 0. 987-0. 068 0. 935 0. 645 *** 1. 907 0. 490 *** 1. 633 0. 350 ** 1. 418 0. 300 * 1. 350 0. 562 *** 1. 754 0. 662 *** 1. 938 0. 762 *** 2. 143 0. 528 *** 1. 695 0. 221 ** 1. 247 0. 094 1. 099 0. 021 1. 021-0. 059 0. 942-0. 067 0. 935 0. 123 ** 1. 131 0. 144 ** 1. 155 0. 143 ** 1. 154 0. 138 * 1. 148-0. 001 * 0. 999-0. 002 ** 0. 998-0. 001 * 0. 999-0. 001 0. 999 0. 716 ** 2. 046 0. 698 ** 2. 009 0. 481 1. 618 0. 646 1. 908 0. 320 1. 377 0. 214 1. 239-0. 051 0. 950-0. 023 0. 977 0. 008 1. 008 0. 013 1. 013-0. 003 0. 997-0. 011 0. 989-0. 023 0. 977-0. 043 0. 958-0. 076 0. 927-0. 126 0. 881-0. 038 0. 963-0. 007 0. 993-0. 144 0. 866-0. 097 0. 908 0. 008 1. 008 0. 004 1. 004 0. 018 * 1. 018 0. 011 1. 011 0. 505 *** 1. 657 0. 534 *** 1. 705 0. 601 *** 1. 825 0. 561 *** 1. 753 0. 495 ** 1. 640 0. 485 ** 1. 624 0. 561 *** 1. 752 0. 247 1. 280-2. 713 *** 0. 066-3. 162 *** 0. 042-3. 818 *** 0. 022-3. 655 *** 0. 026 55. 751 64. 823 178. 978 119. 065 1621. 106 1529. 326 1378. 286 880. 633 0. 054 0. 066 0. 180 0. 187 1490 1415 1374 875 * P 0. 1 **P 0. 05 ***P 0. 01 3 11. 4% 4 90. 7% 41. 8% 1 75. 4% 1 1. 1
4 101 4 24. 7% 1 ~ 4 1 2 0. 05 3 4 5 Logistic The Logistic Regression Analysis of Trust and Farmers Participation Eliminating those Who are Forced To Pay 1 2 3 4 B Exp B B Exp B B Exp B B Exp B 0. 225 *** 1. 253 0. 163 ** 1. 177 0. 162 * 1. 176 0. 089 1. 093 0. 007 1. 007-0. 085 0. 919 0. 388 *** 1. 475 0. 490 *** 1. 633 0. 616 *** 1. 851 0. 300 * 1. 350 0. 613 *** 1. 847 0. 662 *** 1. 938 0. 938 *** 2. 554 0. 528 *** 1. 695 0. 330 *** 1. 391 a a a a - 2. 836 *** 0. 059-3. 195 *** 0. 041-3. 932 *** 0. 020-4. 081 *** 0. 017 57. 597 70. 499 203. 725 145. 969 1542. 155 1449. 997 1281. 359 813. 101 0. 06 0. 077 0. 216 0. 238 1366 1297 1260 810 5 a 12 3. 2 3% 1187 114 11. 9% 5 5 4 4 4 5 23. 8% 4 4 5. 1% 4 2010 1595
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