Sensex (33847) / Nifty (10147) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart The opening formality as always was influenced by the global peers and they were literally sinking early in the morning. As a result, we had a gap down opening which was followed by some immediate recovery towards Monday s low. However, once again a strong selling pressure at higher levels dragged the index lower to breach recent swing low of 10138. Fortunately, at the end, the damage was not as big as it looked; courtesy to some tail end recovery in the broader market. With yesterday s action, we must accept the fact, our markets decoupled from global peers to some extent after some hiccups in the first half. Ideally, when all major Asian peers along with Dow futures trading with nearly 300 points cut, we should sunk much lower. But, this was not the case; in fact we had some late recovery to suggest exhaustion in the selling momentum. The daily chart indicates indecision with the formation of 'Doji' candlestick at the crucial support of the previous swing low. In addition, some positive divergences are being observed in RSI oscillator and prices. For the coming session, if index manages to stay beyond 10224, then we would see some short covering moves in the market to test 10300-10350 levels; whereas on the lower side, 10100 is the level to watch out for. At present, traders can opt to wait for above mentioned confirmation to take place in order to put aggressive bets in the market. In this scenario, beaten down stocks at major supports can become potential candidates to give a strong bounce back. Key Levels Support 1 10138 Resistance 1 10224 Support 2 10100 Resistance 2 10300 Nifty Bank Outlook - (24972) The Nifty Bank index traded range bound in yesterday's trading session and ended the day tad below the 25000 mark. Although we have seen a sharp sell off the in the Nifty index in last few sessions, the Nifty Bank has shown relative outperformance. The Nifty index has breached its recent low registered in the second week of October in yesterday's session, but the Nifty Bank index is well above the low of that period. Some of the heavyweights form the banking space has shown strength or consolidation in last couple of weeks which has led to this outperformance. Hence, short-term traders are advised to focus on stock specific moves at current juncture within this space as opportunities are seen on both the sides of the trade. The near-term supports in the Nifty Bank index are placed around 24750 and 24490 whereas resistances are seen around 25200 and 25500. Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart Key Levels Support 1 24750 Resistance 1 25200 Support 2 24990 Resistance 2 25500
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 7.49%. Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 8.42% as market closed at 10146.80 levels. The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 1.1 points against a discount of 13.30 points in last trading session. The November series closed at a premium of 49.25 points. The INDIA VIX has decreased from 21.35 to 19.03. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has decreased from 1.10 to 1.04. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are GODFRYPHLP, IDFC, KAJARIACER, NESTLEIND and GODREJIND. Nifty Vs Views FIIs sold to the tune of Rs. 340 crores in cash market segment. At the same time, they were net sellers worth Rs. 577 crores in index futures with good amount of rise in open interest, indicating blend of long and short formation in yesterday s trading session. In options front, they bought of Rs. 542 crores with fall in open interest. As far as Nifty options activities are considered, huge addition was seen in 10100-10400 call options; followed by unwinding in 10500-11000 strikes. On the flip side, 9900 and 10050 put options added decent positions along with massive unwinding in 10200-10500 strikes. Maximum open interest for October series now stood at 11000 followed by 10500 call and 10000 followed by 10200 put options. Yesterday, we began the session on a negative note and saw some recovering. But, once again bears took the charge and index corrected towards 10100 (below recent lows). Eventually, in the last half an hour some recovery led to closing with the loss of 0.96%. We saw addition of mixed positions in yesterday s session. In Nifty options, despite yesterdays fall we hardly saw any unwinding in 10000 strike, which has highest open interest concentration. In addition, huge positions were formed in 10200 call options. At present, traders should wait and watch for index reaction today and shall rather prefer trading in individual counters. Gainers KSCL 1351500 42.79 469.50-4.19 DALMIABHA 578700 21.17 2038.45 0.78 AMBUJACEM 13657500 16.68 200.60-2.72 DISHTV 51320000 15.75 42.90-1.72 BHARATFIN 7426000 14.12 899.30-0.16 BAJAJ-AUTO 2867250 13.72 2586.50 1.04 HDFCBANK 14067500 13.36 1984.85-0.35 HCC 50616000 12.98 11.60-2.11 Losers JPASSOCIAT 138822000-15.54 6.20-2.36 ALBK 17072000-14.77 35.90-2.32 CUMMINSIND 959000-13.40 655.50-4.85 ORIENTBANK 14664000-12.99 60.90-1.06 DCBBANK 5404500-11.04 156.15 0.90 BANKINDIA 20502000-10.88 75.40 0.07 HINDZINC 13788800-10.81 278.85-1.16 INFIBEAM 21632000-10.58 37.65-3.70 Historical Volatility HV WIPRO 29.25 SUNPHARMA 41.82 BIOCON 59.53 ASIANPAINT 42.66 CUMMINSIND 47.58 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.04 0.77 BANKNIFTY 0.79 0.77 RELIANCE 0.39 0.54 ICICIBANK 0.73 0.82 INFY 0.67 0.65
FII Statistics for October 23, 2018 Turnover on October 23, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 12148.10 12725.48 (577.38) 322397 24851.24 15.78 120978.32 120436.48 541.83 1055944 83060.92 (2.06) 41053.90 41244.79 (190.89) 1396041 87419.57 3.20 6968.88 7014.85 (45.98) 138826 8824.14 (2.15) Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 492705 40279.74 25.73 8721276 766306.28 10.58 1923320 114941.94 29.74 866375 60735.23 5.40 Total 181149.20 181421.61 (272.41) 2913208 204155.89 2.17 TOTAL 12003676 982263.19 12.74 Nifty Spot = 10146.80 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 10200 47.80 Sell 10300 18.20 29.60 70.40 10229.60 Buy 10100 53.70 Sell 10000 26.95 26.75 73.25 10073.25 Buy 10200 47.80 Sell 10400 5.45 42.35 157.65 10242.35 Buy 10100 53.70 Sell 9900 12.80 40.90 159.10 10059.10 Buy 10300 18.20 Sell 10400 5.45 12.75 87.25 10312.75 Buy 10000 26.95 Sell 9900 12.80 14.15 85.85 9985.85 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 307 313 317 323 327 ASIANPAINT 1,077 1,108 1,149 1,180 1,221 AXISBANK 545 554 563 572 580 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,498 2,542 2,570 2,615 2,643 BAJFINANCE 1,921 2,002 2,079 2,160 2,237 BAJAJFINSV 4,939 5,054 5,169 5,284 5,399 BPCL 255 262 268 275 281 BHARTIARTL 279 282 287 290 294 INFRATEL 253 259 265 271 277 CIPLA 607 615 623 631 639 COALINDIA 271 274 278 281 284 DRREDDY 2,361 2,417 2,482 2,538 2,603 EICHERMOT 21,637 21,948 22,211 22,522 22,785 GAIL 330 335 340 345 350 GRASIM 792 809 836 854 881 HCLTECH 925 938 961 974 997 HDFCBANK 1,960 1,972 1,986 1,998 2,011 HDFC 1,615 1,651 1,680 1,716 1,746 HEROMOTOCO 2,670 2,697 2,721 2,748 2,772 HINDALCO 210 215 221 225 231 HINDPETRO 194 206 213 225 232 HINDUNILVR 1,526 1,539 1,561 1,574 1,595 IBULHSGFIN 643 689 730 776 817 ICICIBANK 313 318 323 328 334 IOC 122 126 129 133 135 INDUSINDBK 1,392 1,433 1,465 1,506 1,538 INFY 636 647 664 675 693 ITC 279 283 287 290 295 JSW STEEL 336 342 349 354 361 KOTAKBANK 1,130 1,152 1,166 1,188 1,202 LT 1,171 1,186 1,197 1,212 1,224 M&M 709 719 727 738 745 MARUTI 6,574 6,673 6,765 6,864 6,956 NTPC 161 163 165 166 168 ONGC 148 152 155 158 161 POWERGRID 183 187 190 194 197 RELIANCE 1,033 1,044 1,054 1,065 1,075 SBIN 253 254 257 258 261 SUNPHARMA 552 564 585 597 618 TCS 1,799 1,821 1,860 1,882 1,921 TATAMOTORS 166 168 172 174 178 TATASTEEL 529 537 544 552 558 TECHM 655 662 673 679 691 TITAN 756 767 777 788 798 ULTRACEMCO 3,155 3,249 3,355 3,450 3,555 UPL 593 604 620 631 646 VEDANTA 203 207 211 215 220 WIPRO 296 303 311 318 327 YESBANK 202 208 212 218 222 ZEEL 419 429 440 449 460
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