Special Presentation for Fidelity Investments Yardeni Research, Inc. April 13, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni President Yardeni Research, Inc. 51-97-783 eyardeni@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Special Presentation for Fidelity Investments 1. untitled. untitled 3. untitled. untitled 5. untitled. untitled 7. untitled 8. untitled 9. untitled 1. untitled 11. untitled 1. untitled Copyright Yardeni Research, Inc. 1. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Additional Information Available on Request. Doc: PRESENTFIDELITY Assembled Tuesday, /1/1 8:17 PM
. 5 Figure 1. US 1-YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD (percent, daily). 5 5. 5.. Yield (1.79). 3. 3. /1 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 Source: Haver Analytics.
18 1 Figure. US 1-YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD (percent, monthly) 18 1 1 1 1 1 1 Yield (1.89) 1 8 8 Mar 53 55 57 59 1 3 5 7 9 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 Source: Haver Analytics.
18 1 1 1 Figure 3. US TREASURY BOND YIELD & NOMINAL GDP GROWTH 1-Year US Treasury Bond Yield (percent) (1.89) Nominal GDP (yearly percent change) (3.1) 18 1 1 1 1 1 8 8 Q Mar - - - 53 55 57 59 1 3 5 7 9 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 - Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
1 1 Figure. SPREAD BETWEEN US TREASURY BOND YIELD & NOMINAL GDP GROWTH* 1 1 8 8 Spread (-.93) - Q - - - - - -8 53 55 57 59 1 3 5 7 9 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19-8 * 1-year bond yield minus yearly percent change in nominal GDP. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
8. 7 Figure 5. EUROZONE: 1-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS (percent, daily) D QE1 QE 8. 7 7. 7.. 5 France (.) Germany (.11) Italy (1.) Spain (). 5 5. 5... 3. 3. /1. 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 D = On July, 1, ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. Source: Haver Analytics..
5.. 3. Figure. 1-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS (percent, daily) France (.) Germany (.11) Japan (-.9) Sweden (.9) UK () US (1.79) 5.. 3. /1. - 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 Source: Haver Analytics.. -
Figure 7. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX EX FOOD & ENERGY (yearly percent change) Eurozone () United States (.3) Japan (.8) Feb Mar Feb - 1997 1998 1999 1 3 5 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 17 Source: Statistical Office of European Communities and Statistisches Bundesamt. -
5 5 8 Figure 8. AGE WAVE, INFLATION, & BOND YIELD IN THE US 1 13 1 11 1-Year Treasury Bond Yield*** 1 9 8 7 5 38 3 3 Age Wave* Inflation Trend** Mar 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 1 1 1 1 18 3 1 * Percent of labor force 1-3 years old. ** Five-year moving average of yearly percent change in CPI. *** Five-year moving average of ten-year government bond yield. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
5.. Figure 9. US 1-YEAR TREASURY BOND & TIPS YIELDS (percent, daily) 5.. 3.. - 1-Year Bond Yield (1.79) 1-Year TIPS Yield (.) /1 /1 3.. - - - 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. - -
3. Figure 1. EXPECTED INFLATION IN 1-YEAR TIPS* (percent, daily) 3. Expected Inflation (7) /1. 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1. * Nominal minus TIPS yield. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
1 Figure 11. US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE BOND COMPOSITE (percent) 1 18 18 15 Yield (8.19) 15 1 1 9 /1 9 3 1998 1999 1 3 5 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 17 Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch. 3
Figure 1. YIELD SPREAD: US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS 1-YEAR TREASURY (basis points) 18 18 1 1 1 1 Spread () 1 1 1 1 8 8 /1 1998 1999 1 3 5 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 17 Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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