(25th Jan 2018) INDEX RESISTANCE 2 RESISTANCE 1 CMP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 NIFTY 11300 11150 11069.65 10900 10800 NIFTYBANK 27900 27600 27445.65 27200 27000 NIFTYIT 13400 13300 13117.85 13000 12900 NIFTY OUTLOOK Nifty traded jubilant and made a new milestone above 11,000 in the passing week. Encouraging earnings announcements and supportive local cues helped the index to maintain the momentum. In the coming week, The Union Budget, which is scheduled on Feb 1, will trigger the next directional move. Meanwhile, the ongoing earnings season will keep the participants busy. Technically, Nifty has immediate hurdle at 11100 and above which it may incher toward 11300. However, profit taking may continue in midcap and small cap space. We advise traders booking partial profit ahead of event and keeping the leveraged position hedged. SECTORS TO WATCH SECTOR ENERGY FMCG PHARMA REALITY OUTLOOK BULLISH BULLISH BULLISH SIDEWAYS TO BEARISH
NIFTY ENERGY OUTLOOK Last week, the Nifty Energy index edged higher and gained over 2 percent. Technically, it has been consolidating near its record high for past two months and likely to witness fresh breakout in near future. We advise traders to use this consolidation phase to accumulate quality stocks like GAIL, RELIANCE, ONGC etc. NIFTY FMCG OUTLOOK Nifty FMCG index maintained its positive tone and gained nearly one percent. It has been continuously forming higher highs and higher lows on weekly chart. All indications are in the favor of this bias to extend further. Traders can initiate fresh long positions in stocks like ITC, DABUR and GODREJIND.
NIFTY PHARMA OUTLOOK We have witnessed a decent recovery across the board in Nifty Pharma index in the passing week. Technically, it is trading on the verge of breakout from bullish reversal pattern that lasted for more than a year on weekly chart. Further, all other indications are in the favor of strong up move. We suggest traders to use this phase and accumulate sound stocks like CIPLA, GLENMARK, SUNPHARMA, and LUPIN. NIFTY REALITY OUTLOOK Though Nifty Reality managed to ended on a positive note in the last week but its overall trend is still sideways to bearish. Its current chart pattern along with the confirmation indicators are pointing towards further consolidation or profit booking ahead. We advise traders to book profit on rise and wait for dips for fresh buying.
DERIVATIVES OUTLOOK Nifty futures volume weighted average price (VWAP) is at 10650 and BankNifty futures is at 25930. Call writing was seen at Nifty 11200 strike and Put writing was seen at Nifty 10800 strikes. Maximum positions are at 12000 CE and 10500 PE. Nifty is expected to be in the range of 10800-11300. Technology stocks gained the most during the week and Telecom stocks lost the most during the week. FIIs were net buyer of around Rs 5889 Cr in cash segment whereas DIIs were net seller of around Rs 277 Cr in cash segment during the week (Thursday to-thursday). VIX is likely to hover around 14%-20% range for the next week. Strategy - KAJARIACER added around 9% in open interest as short buildup was seen in it in previous session. Current chart pattern too indicate further decline in its price. We suggest buying KAJARIACER options as per below levels. Strategy - Buy KAJARIACER 700PE between 20-21, SL 12, TGT 36 LONG BUILDUP (Weekly change) SYMBOL PRICE % CHANGE IN PRICE OPEN INTEREST % CHANGE IN OI NIITTECH 914.15 31.60 2314500 42.00 JUBLFOOD 2210.40 13.30 3490000 29.17 BIOCON 607.45 12.50 9437400 17.66 SHORT BUILDUP (Weekly change) SYMBOL PRICE % CHANGE IN PRICE OPEN INTEREST % CHANGE IN OI MCDOWELL-N 3367.50-8.70 3330750 34.90 BHARTIARTL 452.65-8.70 62534500 16.80 HINDPETRO 384.05-6.70 32804100 15.10
Oct-16 v-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 v-17 Religare Weekly : Equity IIP (%) BSE Sectoral Indices 9 8 7 5.7 6 5 4.8 4 3 2 2.6 1 0-1 3.8 1.9 2.7 3.1 1.7-0.1 1.2 4.5 3.8 8.4 2.2 This Week Pre. Week % Change METAL 15,683.0 15,264.5 2.7 HC 15,028.8 14,868.2 1.1 FMCG 10,936.5 10,862.8 0.7 CD 22,963.0 23,574.9-2.6 TECK 6,898.5 6,786.7 1.6 AUTO 25,670.0 26,013.5-1.3 OIL&GAS 16,241.1 15,883.2 2.3 PSU 9,206.6 9,094.5 1.2 BANKEX 31,082.1 30,473.4 2.0 CG 20,634.8 20,197.6 2.2 IT 12,688.5 12,243.7 3.6 POWER 2,347.5 2,362.9-0.6 REALTY 2,649.6 2,622.6 1.0 Weekly News Dr Reddy's Laboratories reported a 29% YoY de-growth in its consolidated net profit at Rs 334.4cr due to continued decline in rth America business. Revenue from operations grew by 3% YoY to Rs 3,806cr. EBITDA fell 8.4% YoY to Rs 806cr, while EBITDA margin contracted 300bps YoY to 21%. UPL reported healthy 25.3% YoY growth in consolidated net profit at Rs 579cr for Q3FY18. Revenue from operations grew by 7% YoY to Rs 4,194cr. EBITDA fell 1.4% YoY to Rs 716cr, while EBITDA margin contracted 140bps to 17.1%. VIP Ind s consolidated revenue for the quarter, adjusting for excise grew by 12.1% YoY to Rs 338cr. EBITDA came in at Rs 41cr, up 57.2% YoY, while EBITDA margin expanded by 349bps YoY to 12.2%. Consolidated PAT for the quarter grew by 68.5% YoY to Rs 27cr. InterGlobe Aviation reported 56.4% YoY growth in PAT to Rs 762cr, aided by higher fares, passenger growth and a stronger rupee. Revenue rose 23.9% YoY to Rs 6,178cr. EBITDA increased by 34% to Rs 1,936cr while EBITDA margins expanded by 240bps YoY to 31.3%. Symphony s net revenue increased by 21% YoY to Rs 217.6cr. EBITDA grew by 29.1% YoY to Rs 86.8cr, while EBITDA margin improved by 254bps YoY to 39.9%. Net profit was up 20.7% YoY to Rs 66.3cr. Can Fin Homes reported a 16% YoY increase in Net Interest Income, which stood at Rs 127.9cr. The NIMs for Q3FY18 stood at 3.58%, a decline of 6bps QoQ. Its net profit grew by 34.2% YoY to Rs 80cr. Its Gross NPAs stood at 0.46%, up 4bps QoQ. Axis Bank reported 25.3% YoY growth in net profits at Rs 726.4cr, driven by lower provisions. Net interest income grew by 9.2% YoY to Rs 4,731.5cr. Asset quality improved sequentially with Gross NPAs declining by 62bps to 5.28%.
Team Members Hitesh Agrawal Ajay Pasari, CFA Ajit Mishra Manoj M Vayalar hitesh.agrawal@religare.com ajay.pasari@religare.com ajit.mishra@religare.com manoj.vayalar@religare.com Mehernosh Khurshed Panthaki mehernosh.panthaki@religare.com Nirvi Ashar Rohit Khatri Suhanee Shome nirvi.ashar@religare.com rohit.khatri@religare.com suhanee.shome@religare.com
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