Global Economic Management and Asia s Responsibility Masahiro Kawai Asian Development Bank Institute PECC 18 th General Meeting Economic Crisis and Recovery: Roles for the Asia-Pacific Economies Washington, DC, 12-13 May 2009
Changing global economic landscape Rapid rise of BRICs esp. China and India Dreaming with BRICs rapid growth of GDP over the next decades Expansion of trade and FDI (factory Asia) Accumulation of massive foreign exchange reserves (sovereign financial power) Rising GHG emissions But per capita GDP of China and India will remain lower than advanced economies
GDP projections for USA, Europe, Japan, China, India, Brazil, and Russia 45,000 40,000 35,000 Billion US Dollar 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 USA Core European Union Japan China India Brazil Russia Goldman Sachs, Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050 (October 2003).
Per capita GDP projections for USA, Europe, Japan, China, India, Brazil & Russia 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 US Dollars 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 USA Core European Union Japan China India Brazil Russia Goldman Sachs, Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050 (October 2003).
Imports of major economies, 2004-08 08 (Billions of US$) 200 150 100 50 0 EU-right scale; all others - left scale Jan-2004 Jul-2004 Jan-2005 Jul-2005 Jan-2006 Jul-2006 Jan-2007 Jul-2007 Jan-2008 Jul-2008 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Australia Japan Korea United States China India Indonesia European Union
Foreign exchange reserves 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 US EU-15 Japan China India Russia Brazil Asian NICs ASEAN-9
Developing Asia s share in global carbon emissions from energy consumption is expected to rise Rest of the World 70% Developing Asia 30% 43% 57% Rest of the World 2006 Actual Total = 27,889 Mil tons CO 2 2030 Projection Total = 40,553 Mil tons CO 2 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
Rising responsibility of Asia for providing global public goods Global responsibilities Global economic recovery and financial stability - China leading the way - correcting payments imbalance, a challenge IMF resource increase and effectiveness - governance reform essential WTO Doha Development round Climate change mitigation
Asia s development paradigm change is the real contribution, and this is needed for Asia s sustainable growth A shift from export-led growth to domestic/ regional demand-led growth - focus on consumption and social sector - focus on corporate governance - focus on non-tradable (services) sector A shift from a high- to low-carbon economy - decoupling and co-benefits This paradigm shift is beneficial to Asia
A low carbon economy is based on decoupling principles Quality of life Economic growth Changes in production patterns Changes in production and consumption patterns Carbon emissions
Voice and representation of Asia in global governance Asia needs to gain greater voice in global forums and institutions Creation of the G-20 process is a welcome development - but the G-20 agenda (fiscal policy, global financial supervision) seems set by US & Europe IMF reform needed and Asia s voice should rise - but perhaps only marginal changes expected Developing Asia s voice in climate change discussion essential: common but differentiated responsibility
Major groups IMF and WB quotas, and their shares in GDP, GNI and trade Groups IMF (%) World Bank IBRD (%) GDP GNI (at PPP) Trade IDA (%) (%) (%) (%) USA 17.1 16.8 12.2 25.4 21.2 11.2 EU (27) 32.4 29.0 32.6 30.8 22.2 37.3 Euro Zone (16) 23.2 20.3 20.5 22.5 16.1 28.2 ASEAN+3 (13) 14.6 14.7 14.8 18.2 23.3 20.3 ASEAN+6 (16) 18.4 19.5 19.5 22.1 29.3 21.6
Regional institution building in Asia good for the global community Regional governance for regional public goods: Asian Monetary Fund (CMIM, surveillance unit, and Asian Currency Unit) for financial & currency stability Asian Financial Stability Dialogue for fin. stability Asian FTA (EAFTA for ASEAN+3 or CEPEA for +6?) for sequenced global trade liberalization Pan-Asian Infrastructure Forum This requires: Strong collaboration between Japan and China Complementarity with global institutions
Figure 2. East Asia s s Evolving Economic Architecture ASEM APEC European Union (27 member countries) Pakistan Mongolia Myanmar Lao PDR Cambodia ASEAN Philippines Thailand Malaysia Singapore Brunei Darussalam Indonesia Vietnam EAS ASEAN+3 Japan China Korea Australia New Zealand United States Canada Mexico Peru Chile Taipei,China Hong Kong Papua New Guinea Russia India.
US and Asia in APEC Key trans-pacific agenda: Resolution of trans-pacific payments imbalances - savings and investment correction - focus on non-tradables (services) sector in Asia - trans-pacific exchange rate adjustment desirable Asia-Pacific Green New Deal - new sources of growth & green infrastructure - international support needed to encourage developing Asia to undertake paradigm shift Asia-Pacific social sector protection initiative - key for socially sustainable growth - basis for supporting household consumption
Thank you For more information: Dr. Masahiro Kawai Dean& CEO Asian Development Bank Institute mkawai@adbi.org +81 3 3593 5527 www.adbi.org