METOLIUS DIVERSIFIED US FEEDER FUND JANUARY 2017 UPDATE Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec YTD 2017-1.53% -1.53% 2016 3.09% 1.30% -2.52% -0.32% -2.42% 2.15% 0.99% -1.53% -2.07% -0.44% 0.44% 1.50% -0.03% 2015 8.33% -1.91% -0.61% -2.92% -2.22% -1.05% 0.14% -0.51% -0.01% -2.24% 2.98% -1.03% -1.51% 2014-3.34% 1.01% -1.29% -1.86% -0.65% 0.90% 0.44% 2.33% 5.53% 1.97% 4.08% 2.52% 11.88% 2013 2.66% -0.97% 0.10% 0.72% 0.83% -0.99% -2.14% -0.79% -2.89% -0.23% 1.74% 2.18% 0.08% 2012-0.48% 0.93% -1.39% -2.86% 1.36% -2.58% 1.97% -0.93% -0.21% -2.19% -0.69% 2.15% -4.96% 2011-1.93% 1.22% 0.17% 4.14% -2.85% -0.10% 1.22% -0.15% 2.25% -3.15% -1.16% 0.97% 0.38% 2010 1.04% 0.37% 0.81% 3.80% 2.22% -1.84% 3.72% 10.44% Important note: The performance numbers in the above table are the net actual and specific returns realized by a Day 1 full fee paying investor in the Metolius Diversified US Feeder Fund L.P. only (including a 1.5% management fee and 20% performance fee). Our goal is to manage all accounts pari passu. METOLIUS ENHANCED FUND (2.5X LEVERED) JANUARY 2017 UPDATE Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec YTD 2017-3.52% -3.52% 2016 6.75% 2.69% -4.61% -0.52% -5.76% 5.67% 2.32% -3.10% -4.87% -0.81% 1.39% 4.04% 2.25% 2015 19.84% -4.42% -1.23% -6.99% -5.23%* -2.38% 0.63% -1.02% 0.25% -5.33% 7.74% -2.32% -2.89% 2014-8.00% 2.81% -2.93% -4.32% -1.33% 2.56% 1.44% 6.16% 14.17% 5.24% 8.16% 6.28% 32.23% 2013 7.00% -2.20% 0.56% 2.11% 2.30% -2.22% -5.15% -1.70% -6.89% -0.33% 4.69% 5.77% 3.01% 2012-0.91% 2.63% -3.23% -6.78% 3.72% -6.12% 5.29% -2.00% -0.26% -5.14% -1.42% 5.73% -9.11% 2011-4.53% 3.34% 0.67% 10.01% -6.55% -0.02% 3.11% -0.18% 5.55% -7.51% -2.62% 2.70% 2.59% 2010 2.69% 1.08% 2.14% 9.36% 5.32% -4.21% 9.08% 27.59% Metolius Enhanced Fund L.P. (including a 0% management fee and 25% performance fee) Important Note: 2015 YTD is actual return for June 2015-Dec 2015 performance * THE PERFORMANCE FROM JUNE 2010 THROUGH MAY 2015 CONSISTS OF PRO FORMA PAST PERFORMANCE OF METOLIUS CAPITAL, LLC S ENHANCED FUND Risk Portfolio Currencies Commodities Stock Indices Interest Rates VaR (Hist. 3 Yr 95% 1 Day) 92 bp 47 bp 32 bp 30 bp 37 bp Sector Risk (VaR) Currencies Gross Notional Exposure (as multiple of AUM)* 2.57x AUM 0.68 x AUM 0.20 x AUM 0.36 x AUM 1.33 x AUM Commodities *All data above is for the Metolius Diversified US Feeder Fund. The notional value of the short term interest rate contracts have been adjusted to reflect their contribution to portfolio volatility. Equities Interest Rates
The Metolius US Feeder Fund lost -1.53% in January. Fixed income (-1.18%) and energy (-0.32%) trading caused most of the losses. Stock indices (+0.45%) were the only profitable sector of consequence. RISK Conceptually in investing, risk can be split into two buckets: levered and unlevered investments. An unlevered investment does not involve borrowed money. The most you can lose on a long position is your initial investment. On the other hand, a levered investment uses borrowed money to potentially enhance returns. Of course this is a double-edged sword, as gains as well as losses are magnified. With levered investments, you can lose more than your initial investment. The futures contracts that Metolius trades fall into the category of levered investments. By their very nature, futures contracts have embedded leverage since they only require the trader to put down a small good-faith deposit called margin rather than the full amount. CTA s use this leverage to deliver exposure to many markets where it wouldn t be economical otherwise. However, this leverage should command a proper respect and distinct money management practices versus an unlevered investor. Stop-loss orders, commonly referred to as stops, are one such mechanism for controlling risk. Over the past few years we have noticed a recurring theme in our conversations with other traders and industry participants an increasing number of people seem to trade their systems without stops. While there are certainly systems that test better with stops, by and large, using stops tends to degrade backtested system performance. In the tables below, you can see this effect on two separate intraday trading systems we were evaluating. Notice as the stop gets wider, the performance metrics improve. Often, the final no-stop version will have the best performance of all. Worse Performance Tighter Stops Wider Stops Better Performance
AtrCoefficient (STOPS) ROI CAGR Sharpe Ratio MAR Ratio Ulcer Performance Index Stops Hit% 1 29.17% 6.36% 1.41 2.46 6.90 25.50% 1.25 34.35% 7.37% 1.57 2.34 7.49 17.67% 1.5 36.98% 7.88% 1.64 2.63 7.85 12.77% 1.75 36.99% 7.88% 1.63 2.79 8.20 9.19% 2 38.07% 8.08% 1.66 2.68 8.00 7.01% 2.25 41.16% 8.66% 1.79 3.15 9.42 5.05% 2.5 39.78% 8.40% 1.72 2.85 8.58 3.92% 2.75 40.12% 8.47% 1.73 2.94 9.08 3.13% 3 37.77% 8.03% 1.63 2.51 7.37 2.25% 3.25 42.04% 8.82% 1.79 3.17 10.35 1.53% 3.5 42.37% 8.88% 1.80 3.17 10.39 1.08% NO STOP 43.34% 9.06% 1.84 3.50 10.82 0.00% No Stop has best performance When tested with the last ten year s data, a majority of potential systems will likely test better without stops. It is easy to see why pure quants or those without an appreciation of market history or a few battle scars of their own gravitate to these no-stop systems. To quote from the recent book A Man For All Markets (2017) by the great thinker and investor Ed Thorp: Our firm didn t use VaR and stress tests we took a more comprehensive view. We analyzed and incorporated tail risk, and we considered extreme questions such as What if the market fell by 25% in one day? Ten years later it did just that. We believe the amount of money being run without stops is much bigger than the trading community realizes. Even a stop on close has far more risk that is generally believed. What will happen when the inevitable intraday x standard deviation move happens? Are some firms using investor money as a free call option to the upside while not protecting the downside? Metolius doesn t presume to have the final answer on risk. One of our systems, which accounts for about 10% of our capital, is a cross-sectional ranking strategy that by design does not use stops in an effort to maintain target exposures. However, the great bulk of our trades all have stops associated with them at the time the trade is entered. Hedging, pair-type trades, different trade durations, fundamentals, model and portfolio stops and proper sizing are some of the many methods used for risk mitigation. We view the use of stops as a prudent form of insurance against the inevitable market disruption that may take out some levered players.
Onshore/Enhanced Fund: Offshore Fund/Master: Minimum Managed Account: Firm Overview Illinois L.P. Cayman Ltd. $4 million Minimum Fund Investment: $100,000 Legal: Fund Administration: Independent Auditor: Greenberg Traurig, LLP NAV Consulting, Inc. (USA, Cayman Islands) Arthur Bell and Associates US Feeder Fund Fee Structure: 1.5% / 20% Enhanced Fund Fee Structure: 0% / 25% Liquidity: Monthly Summary Statistics for US Feeder Fund Year to Date Return: -1.53% (net of fees) Compound Annual Return: 2.04% Std Dev of Monthly Returns: 2.18% Sharpe Ratio (rf=0): 0.27 Average Annual Drawdown: -6.72% Max Peak-to-Valley Drawdown: -13.61% Annualized Volatility: 8.17% Correlation to HFR systematic: 0.61 Correlation to HFR Macro Index: 0.53 Correlation to S&P 500: 0.08 Total Firm AUM: $169 million (as of Feb 1, 2017) Average Margin/Equity: 5.97% (since inception) Gross Returns for January 2017: By Market Sector Margin Allocation (%) 3.0% 2.0% Grains Softs Energy Metals Stock Indices Currencies Bonds Stirs 1.0% 0.0% 0.06% 0.45% 0.11% -1.0% -0.27% -0.19% -0.32% -0.94% -0.24% -2.0% -3.0% Grains Softs Energy Metals EquitiesCurrencies Bonds STIRs 0 10 20 30 40 All data above is for the Metolius Diversified US Feeder Fund. The data above is for the Metolius Diversified US Feeder Fund as of January 31, 2017.
Daily Margin to Equity Ratio (since inception) 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% Average 5.97% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 All data above is for the Metolius Diversified US Feeder Fund Metolius Capital Comparison Charts (since inception) * Pro forma performance used prior to June 1, 2015