US Economic Briefing: Consumer Confidence

US Economic Briefing: Consumer Confidence tember, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-97-783 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson --1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana --1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Consumer Confidence & Sentiment 1 Consumer Optimism Consumer Confidence 3- Consumer Confidence & Unemployment -7 Consumer Confidence & Employment 8-1 Consumer Sentiment 11 Consumer Confidence By Region 1-1 Consumer Optimism Index Jobs Plentiful & Wage Inflation 1 Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation 17- tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

Consumer Confidence & Sentiment 1 Figure 1. 1 1 1 1 CONSUMER SURVEYS Consumer Confidence Index (198=, sa) Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-19=, nsa) 1 1 1 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 CURRENT CONDITIONS Consumer Confidence Index (198=, sa) Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-19=, nsa) 1 1 13 1 11 9 7 3 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 EXPECTATIONS Consumer Confidence Index (198=, sa) Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-19=, nsa) 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. 1 1 13 1 11 9 7 3 Page 1 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

1 1 Figure. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX* Consumer Optimism 1 1 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 1 1 1 CURRENT CONDITIONS 1 1 1 13 11 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 EXPECTATIONS 13 11 9 9 7 7 3 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 * Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa). Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. 3 Page / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

Consumer Confidence 1 Figure 3. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (198=, sa) 1 13 1 1 Total (119.8) 13 1 1 9 9 8 8 7 7 3 3 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 Source: The Conference Board. 1 Figure. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (198=, sa) Component (1.1) 1 1 Component (1.) 1 1 1 1 1 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 Source: The Conference Board. Page 3 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

1 1 Figure. Consumer Confidence CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXES BY AGE GROUPS (198=, sa) 1 1 1 1 Under 3 Years Old (1.9) 3 to Years Old (18.) Years & Over (11.7) 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 Source: The Conference Board. 1 1 Figure. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX* 1 1 1 1 Total (17.) Present (13.) (9.8) 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 * Average of Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. Page / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

7 3 3 Figure 7. Consumer Confidence CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: JOBS AVAILABLITY (percent saying so) Jobs Plentiful* (3.) Jobs Hard To Get* (18.1) 7 3 3 1 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 1 * Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board. 7 Figure 8. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: CURRENT CONDITIONS & JOBS AVAILABILITY Jobs Plentiful Minus Jobs Hard To Get* (percent saying so) (1.) 17 Index (1.1) 1-7 - -7 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 * Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted. Source: The Conference Board. Page / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

Consumer Confidence & Unemployment 1 Figure 9. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & JOBS AVAILABILITY 7 1 Jobs Hard To Get* (percent saying so) 1 8 3 Unemployment Rate (percent) 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 1 1 1 1 18 * Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 7 Figure 1. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & CONFIDENCE (sa) Jobs Hard To Get (percent saying so) 3 1 U- Unemployment Rate* (percent) 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 1 1 1 1 18 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. * Total unemployed plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force plus all attached workers. Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor. Page / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

Figure 11. Consumer Confidence & Unemployment CONSUMER CONFIDENCE & UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (sa) Initial Unemployment Claims (thousands, -week ma) 7 3 Jobs Hard To Get (percent saying so) 9/1 1 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor. 7 7 3 3 Figure 1. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS & JOBS AVAILABILITY (sa) Jobs Hard To Get* (percent saying so) Initial Unemployment Claims (thousands, sa, -week ma) 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 7 3 * Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor. Page 7 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

1 Figure 1. Consumer Confidence & Employment EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER SENTIMENT 7 3 1-1 Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-19=, nsa) Payroll Employment (yearly percent change) -3 1 1 9 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Consumer Confidence Index (198=, sa) Payroll Employment (yearly percent change) 9 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER OPTIMISM Consumer Optimism Index* Payroll Employment (yearly percent change) 9 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 * Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa). Source: The Conference Board, University of Michigan Survey Research Center, and US Department of Labor. - 7 3 1-1 - -3 - - 8 - - - Page 8 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

3 3 Figure 13. Consumer Confidence & Employment CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS (sa) Percent Expecting More Jobs Months From Now Percent Expecting Fewer Jobs Months From Now 3 3 1 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 Source: The Conference Board. 1 18 1 - -1-18 - -3-3 - Figure 1. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS (sa) Percent Expecting More Jobs Minus Percent Expecting Fewer Jobs Consumer Confidence Index 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 Source: The Conference Board. 13 1 11 9 7 3 Page 9 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

9 Figure. Consumer Confidence & Employment CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: BUSINESS CONDITIONS (sa) 9 7 7 3 Business Conditions Months Ahead Better Worsen Same 3 1 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 Source: Conference Board. 1 1 Figure 1. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: HOME 1 1 Plans to Buy Within Months: Home (% of respondents, sa) 1 8 8 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 Source: Conference Board. Page 1 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

13 1 Figure 17. CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX (Q1-19=, nsa) Consumer Sentiment 13 1 11 11 9 9 7 7 Consumer Sentiment Index (9.3) (113.9) (83.) 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center. 13 1 11 Figure 18. CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX (Q1-19=, nsa) 13 1 11 9 9 7 7 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center. Page 11 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

Consumer Confidence By Region 1 1 1 Figure 19. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (198=, sa) New England* 1 New England* 17 1 7 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 13 1 Middle Atlantic* 1 1 9 7 Middle Atlantic* 1 1 3 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 1 1 1 South Atlantic* South Atlantic* 17 1 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 * New England (Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont); Middle Atlantic (New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania); South Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida). Source: The Conference Board. 7 Page 1 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

Consumer Confidence By Region 1 1 1 1 Figure. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (198=, sa) East North Central* East North Central* 1 1 1 1 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 1 1 1 East South Central* East South Central* 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 1 11 9 7 3 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 West North Central* 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 West North Central* 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 * East North Central (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin); East South Central (Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi); West North Central (Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas). Source: The Conference Board. 1 1 1 1 Page 13 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

Consumer Confidence By Region 1 1 1 Figure 1. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (198=, sa) West South Central* West South Central* 18 17 1 1 1 11 9 3 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 1 1 1 Mountain* 1 1 1 1 1 Mountain* 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 1 1 1 Pacific* Pacific* 1 1 1 1 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 * West South Central (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas); Mountain (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada); Pacific (Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii). Source: The Conference Board. Page 1 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

17 Figure. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX* Consumer Optimism Index 17 13 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 3 Total 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 1 3 * Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa). Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. 38 3 3 3 3 8 Figure 3. NFIB: JOB OPENINGS & JOBS PLENTIFUL (sa) NFIB: Firms with One or More Job Openings (1-month average, percent) (3.7) Jobs Plentiful (percent saying so) (3.) 3 3 18 1 1 1 1 8 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 19 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Small Business. 1 Page / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

3 3 1 Figure. Jobs Plentiful & Wage Inflation ECI WAGES & SALARIES vs JOBS PLENTIFUL (sa) ECI: Wages & Salaries Private Industry (yearly percent change) Jobs Plentiful* (percent saying so) 8 83 8 8 8 87 88 89 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 19 Q 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7....... 3. 3... 1. 1. * Every other month from 197 thru mid-1977, monthly data begins in July 1977. Seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Conference Board. Page 1 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation 1 1 Figure. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES 1 1 8 1 Jul Consumer Optimism Index (17.) - Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) - - 13 1 11 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES -8 1 9 7 Consumer Sentiment Index (19=) (9.3) Jul Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) - 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18-1 1 1 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES 1 1 8 1 Consumer Confidence Index (198=) (119.8) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Jul - - - -8 Page 17 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation 1 1 1 Figure. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES 1 1 8 Jul Consumer Optimism Index: Present Situation (13.) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) - - - 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18-8 13 1 11 CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES 1 9 7 Consumer Sentiment Index: (19=) (113.9) Jul Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) - 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Consumer Confidence Index: (198=) (1.1) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Jul -1 1 1 8 - - - -8 Page 18 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

1 1 1 Figure 7. Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Consumer Optimism Index: (9.8) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) Jul 1 1 8 - - - 1 11 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES -8 1 9 7 1 1 Consumer Sentiment Index: (19=) (83.) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Consumer Confidence Index: (198=) (1.) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (.) 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 3 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 17 18 Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Jul Jul - -1 1 1 8 - - - -8 Page 19 / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

Figure 8. Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT Present Situation Component (198=, sa) (1.1) - Payroll Employment (yearly percent change) (1.) 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 1 1 1 1 18 Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. - - Figure 9. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT Present Situation Component (198=, sa) (1.1) - Household Employment (yearly percent change) (1.) 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 1 1 1 1 18 Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. - - Page / tember, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

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