NationalEconomicTrends March Income Taxes: Who Pays and How Much? With the tax filing season in full swing, these summary figures may provide some perspective on the issue of who is paying federal individual income taxes and, more importantly, the relative shares paid by different groups of taxpayers (Note that, because I do not include the impact of other taxes, such as payroll taxes, my discussion does not address the overall tax system) Federal tax receipts for totaled $17 trillion, with the largest share ( percent) coming from individual income taxes (IIT) As shown in the table, receipts from IIT totaled $779 billion for, the result of 1 million filed returns that reported total adjusted gross income (AGI) of $ trillion Thus, the ratio of taxes to income, known as the total average tax, was 119 percent Undertaking the same calculation for earlier years, one finds that the average tax for is the lowest for 19- The table also provides data on the income tax burdens of specific groups By ordering the returns based on AGI from highest to lowest, one can calculate useful income and tax information Let s start with the top percent and the bottom percent: The former group accounted for percent of AGI and paid more than 9 percent of IIT, while the latter group accounted for 1 percent of AGI and percent of IIT The average tax for the top percent was 1 percent, while the for the bottom percent was percent Both of these s for are at their lowest levels for 19- Next, let s look at groups in the top percent The top percent accounted for 9 percent of AGI and paid 9 percent of IIT Their tax was percent Meanwhile, the top 1 percent accounted for percent of AGI and paid percent of IIT Their tax Federal Income Tax Burden by Income Group, was percent Comparing the top percent with the top 1 percent, one sees that those with higher incomes pay higher average tax s This fact continues to hold as we examine those with even higher income, which is a characteristic of a progressive income tax system (ie, the income tax increases as income increases) The top percent accounted for 1 percent of AGI and paid percent of IIT Their tax was 7 percent Finally, the top 1 percent accounted for 1 percent of AGI and paid percent of IIT Their tax was percent, roughly eight times the average of the bottom percent The of percent is approximately twice the average for all taxpayers, which is roughly the midpoint of the range of 1 to based on annual calculations for 19- Reaching political consensus on a tax system that simultaneously (i) provides desirable incentives to work, save, and invest; (ii) is viewed as fair; (iii) is easy to understand; and (iv) genes sufficient revenues to fund spending decisions has proven to be a major challenge in the United States 1 One place to start the discussion is with some basic facts about the existing income tax system Cletus C Coughlin 1 For a discussion of reform options, see Simple, Fair, and Pro-Growth: Proposals to Fix America s Tax System, Report of the President s Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform, November Income Group s Group s share Income Number of AGI taxes paid share of of income Average tax group returns ($ millions) ($ millions) total AGI (%) taxes (%) (%) All taxpayers 1,9,7,7, 77,99 1 1 119 Top 1% 1,,9 1,,7, 177 7 1 Top %,,9 1,9,7,97 11 7 Top 1% 1,,979,,7 9, 19 Top %,,7,7,77 7, Top %,,9,7,1 7,7 1 9 1 Bottom %,,9 79,7,91 199 9 SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, Individual Income Tax Returns with Positive Adjusted Gross Income (AGI), Tables and ; wwwirsgov/taxstats/indtaxstats/article/,,id=11,html Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System researchstlouisfedorg
Contents Page Economy at a Glance Output and Growth 7 Interest Rates Inflation and Prices 1 Labor Markets 1 Consumer Spending 1 Investment Spending 1 Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt 1 International Trade Productivity and Profits Quick Reference Tables 7 Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1 Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research refers to simple percent changes from year refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter during the previous year Compounded annual of change shows what the growth would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months The compounded annual of change of x between the previous quarter t 1 and the current quarter t is: [(x t /x t 1 ) 1] 1 For monthly data replace with 1 All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, National Economic Trends PO Box St Louis, MO 1- or to: stlsfred@stlsfrborg National Economic Trends is published by the of the Visit the s website at researchstlouisfedorg/publications/net to download the current version of this publication or register for e-mail notification updates For more information on data in this publication, please visit researchstlouisfedorg/fred or call (1) -7
updated through /1/ National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth Compounded annual s of change 1 Consumer Price 1 1 - - 1 7 171 17 1-7 171 17 1 1717 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent 1 - -1-1 1- Treasury -Month Treasury - 7 171 17 1 1717 7 171 17 1 1717 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Thousands Unemployment Rate Percent of labor force 1-1 - - 7 171 17 1 1717 7 171 17 1 1717
National Economic Trends updated through /1/ Real Gross Domestic Product from year 1-1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) es from year 1 1 Industrial Production 7 - -1-1 ISM 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours from year 1 - - 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP 1-1 - 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1
updated through /1/ Real Final Sales and GDP Compounded annual s of change 1 Final Sales GDP (bar) - 7 171 17 1 Real GDP Revisions National Economic Trends Compounded annual s of change 7 Advance Preliminary Final Revision 1 : :1 : : : Industrial Production and ISM 1 1 ISM Nominal Gross Domestic Product Compounded annual s of change 1 1 - -1 Industrial Production (bar) -1 171 17 1 1717 7 171 17 1 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours 1 Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Hours 7-7 - -7 171 17 1 1717 171 17 1 1717 Real Change in Private Inventories Billions of dollars 7 - - 7 171 17 1 Inventory-Sales Ratio Manufacturing and trade 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 171 17 1
National Economic Trends updated through // Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percentage points at compounded annual s 1 - - - Q1 Q Q Q Q1 Q Q Q Consumption Exports Government Imports Inventories Investment Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 1st nd rd th 1st nd rd th Final Sales 77 1 7 1 Consumption 7 1 1 1 Fixed Investment 1 11 11 11 1 11 7 Nonresidential 7 19 1 1 9 7 Residential 9 9 1 Government 17 7-1 Federal 71-17 17-1 State and Local -9 1 1 1 19 1 Net Exports -11-17 -17-9 - 111-1 -1 Exports 9 7 7 7 17 Imports - - -7-1 -11 - -19 Change in Inventory 7 - - 9-1 - 1 Residual -7 - -1 - Real GDP Growth 97 1 1 1
updated through /1/ National Economic Trends Interest Rates Percent 1 1 9 1- Treasury -Month Treasury 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 7 Week Ending: // Feb 7 Feb 7 17 m 1y y y 7y 1y Standard and Poor's with Reinvested Dividends from year 7 - - 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7
National Economic Trends updated through // NIPA Chain Price es from year 1 1 GDP Gross Domestic Purchases 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 Consumer Price from year 1 9 Excl Food and Energy All Items 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Producer Price, Finished Goods from year 1 - Excl Food and Energy 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 PPI Employment Cost and Compensation per Hour from year 1 9 Comp per Hour ECI 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1
updated through /1/ NIPA Chain Price es Compounded annual s of change 1 Gross Domestic Purchases GDP (bar) -1 7 171 17 1 Consumer Price Compounded annual s of change 1 Compounded annual s of change 1 National Economic Trends Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Dollars per barrel 7 Spot Oil Consumption Chain Price Dollars per million btu Oil Futures Gas Futures Spot Gas 1 7 7 Note: Futures prices as of // 1 1 1 1 CPI (bar) PCE (bar) - Excl Food & Energy - Excl Food & Energy - 171 17 1 1717-171 17 1 1717 Producer Price, Finished Goods Compounded annual s of change Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual s of change 1-1 PPI (bar) Excl Food & Energy 1 - -1 Manufacturing (bar) Nonfarm - 171 17 1 1717-7 171 17 1 Employment Cost from year Compensation per Hour Compounded annual s of change 1 Benefits Compensation 1 Wages and Salaries 1 11 197 1 7 171 17 1 7 171 17 1 9
National Economic Trends updated through // Employment from year Payroll Survey Household Survey - - 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Percent of labor force 1 9 Labor Force/Population Employment/Population Percent of population 7 7 1 Unemployment Rate 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks 1 7 1 7 Unemployed > Weeks Unemployed < Weeks Median 1 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 1
updated through // National Economic Trends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Thousands Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands 7 1 7-1 - -7 171 17 1 1717-171 17 1 1717 Change in Household Employment Thousands Labor Force and Population from year 9% Confidence 1 Pop Labor Force - 171 17 1 1717-1 197 1 7 171 17 1 1717 Available Labor Supply and Components Percent of labor force 1 Unemployment Rate & Help-Wanted Percent 7 9 7 Available Labor Supply Unemployed Unemployment Rate 9% Confidence 7 7 Want to Work 1 197 1 7 171 17 1 1717 Help-Wanted 1 7 197 1 7 171 17 1 1717 17 11
National Economic Trends updated through // Real Disposable Personal Income from year, quarterly data 1-1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 Real Consumption from year, quarterly data 1 from year, quarterly data Durables 1 Total - - -1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 - Retail and Food Services Sales from year, quarterly average 1 1-1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 *Data from Jan 199 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to Jan 199 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note) Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding from year, quarterly data 1 Percent of disposable personal income 1 Debt Service Payments 1 1 9 1 Household Debt Outstanding 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 11 1 1
updated through /1/ Real Disposable Personal Income 1-1 - - - 171 17 1 1717 Personal Saving Rate National Economic Trends Percent - - 1 197 1 7 171 17 1 1717 Real Consumption Compounded annual s of change Real Consumption 1-7 171 17 1-1 171 17 1 1717 Retail & Food Services 1-1 - Total (bar) Ex Autos - 171 17 1 1717 Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales 1 Millions of vehicles, annual Autos and Light Trucks - 1 Durables (bar) -1 1 171 17 1 1717 1 1 Consumer Sentiment (U of Michigan) 11 Real Durables Consumption Compounded annual s of change 1 1 9-1 7 1 197 1 7 171 17 1 1717-171 17 1 1717 1
National Economic Trends updated through // Investment Percent of nominal GDP Total 1 1 1 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 Private Private Fixed Investment from year 1 Nominal 1 Real - -1-1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment from year 1 - -1 Equipment & Software Nonresidential - 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 Real Residential Fixed Investment from year - - 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1
updated through // National Economic Trends Gross Saving Rates and Balance on Current Account (NIPA) Percent of GDP 1 - -1 Gross Private Saving Gross Govt Saving BOCA 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 Real Private Fixed Investment Compounded annual s of change 1 Nondefense Capital Goods Orders from year, excluding aircraft 1 9 1-1 - Equipment & Software Investment Orders - 7 171 17 1-1 197 1 7 171 17 1 1717 Real Equipment & Software Investment Compounded annual s of change Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual s of change 1 1-7 171 17 1-7 171 17 1 Real Residential Fixed Investment Compounded annual s of change 1-7 171 17 1 Housing Starts and New Home Sales Millions, annual 1 9 7 1 19 New Home Sales Millions, annual 17 9 Housing Starts 1 7 171 17 1 1717 1 1 1 1 11 1 1
National Economic Trends updated through // Govt Consumption and Investment Billions of dollars 1 Govt Current Receipts and Expenditures Percent of GDP Total Expenditures 1 Total Total Receipts 1 State & Local Fed Expenditures 9 Federal Fed Receipts 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Calendar s Unified Budget Fiscal s Receipts State and Local Federal Federal Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (-) 1991 79 79-1 111 1-17 1 1-9 199 7 7 117 1-97 191 11-9 199 9 9 19-7 1 19-1 199 99 9 1 1-1 7 119-199 99 97 1 1-197 119 9-1 199 1 117-11 -17 1997 197 91 1 179-79 11-19 199 11 1111 177 179 9 17 7 9 1999 17 11 191 177 1 17 17 119 19 1 19 179 1 17 1 1 199 7 1991 1 1 111 1-111 -79 11-7 1 1-1 1-17 11-77 17 7-197 1-1 9-17 9 9 7-1 Q 9 179 99-9 -17 Q1-1917 7-9 9-17 Q 797 1-1 191 9-1 99 7-7 Q 7 9-19 197 7-11 79-9 Q 7 117-71 7-111 Q1 7 19 7 19 99-9 1-17 Q 199 177 1 79-97 199 Q 1 19-7 -79 9 1-9 Q 17 1 9-119 1
updated through // Federal Debt Percent of GDP 7 Total Percent of GDP National Economic Trends Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Held by Public - - - NIPA Unified Budget - 9 9 9 9 9 Change in Federal Debt Percent of GDP 9 9 9 9 9 NIPA: Net government saving Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Billions of dollars, fiscal years 7 Total Excl interest payments - Held by Public - - Total - -7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year Excludes Agency-issued debt Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts Held by Public Federal Total Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Foreign and Total International 7 9 99 1 7791 77 7 7 1 797 11 1 7 9 9 March 7 7 9 171 June 9 97 9 11 September 77 9 1 December 7 7 7 9 1 March 7 71 99 1 June 71 1 1 17 1 September 7 9 99 1 December 99 9 1 7 779 March 7111 9 177 71 1771 June 77 17 7 1777 September 7791 77 7 7 1 December 791 19 717 71 197 March 7779 7 717 19 June 7 9 7 77 1 September 797 11 1 7 9 9 17
National Economic Trends updated through // Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars, quarterly Investment Income - Percent of GDP - - - -1-1 -1-1 -1 - Current Account Goods and Services 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 - - - - -1-1 -1-1 -1 Exchange Rates, March 197 = 1 1 Yen/US$ 1 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) 7 1 1 1 Yen Major Currency Euro Ecu 7 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Goods Export Shares, Goods Import Shares, UK % Mexico 1% UK % Mexico 11% China % All Other 11% China 9% France 1% Japan 1% Germany % All Other 1% Japan % Germany % Other OECD 17% Canada % France % Other OECD 19% Canada 1719% 1
updated through /1/ Trade Balance Billions of dollars Goods Trade from year National Economic Trends -1 - Imports - Goods and Services - - -7 Goods 1 Exports - 7 171 17 1-7 171 17 1 Current Account Balance Billions of dollars Services Trade from year - - Imports -1-1 - 1 Exports - 7 171 17 1-7 171 17 1 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Compounded annual s of change United Kingdom Germany - - - Canada France - - 1 - Japan Mexico 1-1 - 19
National Economic Trends updated through // Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing from year 1 Utilization Rate (level) Percent 9 7 Output/Hour - 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 *Data from 197 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to 197 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note) Nonfarm Compensation per Hour from year 1 Nominal Real - 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfinancial Corporations from year 9 Nonfinancial Corporations Nonfarm Business Sector - 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1
updated through // National Economic Trends Nonfarm Output per Hour Compounded annual s of change 1 Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual s of change 1 1-7 171 17 1-7 171 17 1 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent 7 1 11 9 7 Corpo Profits Proprietors' Income 7 71 9 7 Compensation 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 Corpo Profits Percent of GDP 1 Profits (Before Tax) 1 Profits (After Tax) 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 1
National Economic Trends updated through // Billions of $ Nominal GDP Billions of $ Real GDP Billions of $ Final Sales Change in Private Inventories Billions of $ Last qtr / 19 1 1 1 1 1 1971 1 7 11 7 1 117 7 17 17 9 19 7 111 1119 9 19 1 1 1 9977 7 1 99-1 -11-1 7 9 1 1 1 17 1 7-7 9 9 19 11 1 17 11-9 911 19771 19 17 1 9 1 1 1717 7 117 17 1 111 19 1 9 1 1 7 1-7 71 117 9 119 7 1999 9 9 1 11 1 171 9 1 1 171 1 9 1 7 9 19 199 111 7 7 171 179 111 17 1771 711 1199 1 1971 1 7 19 1 119 7 1999 19 1 17 1 119 11917-17 9 7 7 7 11 1 11199-191 19 17 1179 1 1119 7 19 Billions of $ Consumption Durables Consumption Billions of $ Private Fixed Investment Billions of $ 7991 7 97 71-17 -9 7 9 11 1 1 77 9 199 1711 97 11 9 7 11 1977 1 197 7 1 7 1 9-7 - -7 19-1 -117 791 1 9911 9 9-1 - 17-1 -9 711 997 1 11 1-7 -9 1 - -7 7119 1 19 971-1 7-1 - - - 1 719197 1 9797 97-7 11-11 - 77 11 1 77 1 179-71 19 19 79 199 1 1117 11 711 1 1-9 9 77 11171 1 7199 7 17 9 199 9 9 11 79 79 779 19 9 1719 17 1 19 11711 1 9 71719 111 1 7 171 9 11 9 7979 111 11179 7 9 1 1 19 1 7799 11 7 1 7 9 19 7 1 79 9 119 79 7 1 9 1797 9 7971 1 1197 9 19171 79 119 79 1 11179-1 1919 7 1 71 Nonresidential Fixed Investment Billions of $
updated through // National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Employment Cost ECI: Wages ECI: Benefits 119 17 19 1717 9 11 17 19 9 191 179 9 19 71 11 179 19 9 1 1 17 7 1 7 7 19 1 1 7 17 17 1 1 1 7 9 1 177 9 19 17 1 77 1 17 9 1 7 1 1 9 9 1 9 17 77 1 119 11 1 7 1 19 1 1 1 1 11 19 199 19 19 17 1 1791 1 17 9 1 199 9 9 197 9 171 191 9 7 1971 7 17 9 7 197 7 11111 7 9 17 9 1 17 1999 7 71 1 119 1 177 17 11 17 1 1 9 17 9 179 9 19 11 1 11 17 1 7 1 Billions of $ Exports Billions of $ Imports 119-19 1 1177 117 1 7 1797 199 111779 171917 17 1 1197 7 19 19 7 1797 1 997-9 1 117-1 1 171 1 1179 1-17911 1 19 119 9 1 1979 7 191 1 1 1 11717-1 1 9 97 1977 9 197 1 1 1979-9 17 7-19 1 17 7-1 -1 91 19 197 1 1 7 1 1 1979 9 1 1 17 191 1 1 11 17 7 1 19179 1 9 1 1 1 7 7 11119 9 17117 117 1 9 7 7 17 9 171 7 11 17 1 711 1 119 71 1 177 11 1 1 11 1 1 19 7 7 117 7 9 1 9 1199 119 17 77 1977-7 1 1 17 9 171 9 1 1 17 1 19 1 1 119 7 171 1 1-1 Nonfarm Output per Hour Nonfarm Compensation per Hour
National Economic Trends updated through // Household Survey Employment Thousands Change Nonfarm Payroll Employment Thousands Change Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Monthly 1 199 9 11 1-1 1-9 - 1-19 -11 1-1771 1 9 1999-9 - 9-1 19 1 11 11 11 11 1 1 11719 7 1 1 1 1 17 1 1 11-17 - - 991 - -1-1 17 9 19 - - - 9-7 -9-19 17-11 - 19 - - - 9-1 - - 1 7 1 119 11-1 9-1 17 19 7 17 1 99 1 19 1 1 9 1177 7 11 999 7 7 1 19 19 11 1 1 9 11 1 1 1 111 1 17 1 9 1 19 1 1 11 17 1 11 19 1 1 1 1 1 1 17 1 1 19 17 1 19 11 1 1 1 1 1 Jan 17 7 1 1 11 1 99 - Feb 19 7 17 99 Mar 1 - - 7 11 7 99-1 -1 Apr 19 7 1 7 117 9 99 7 1 May 1 1 1 9 11 7 1 1 7 1 Jun 1911 1 111 7 7 1 99 - - 1 Jul 1991 1 1 1 1 1 Aug 19 - - 17 11 1 1 1 1 1 Sep 199 - - 1 117 177 1 1 19 1 Oct 197 7 1 11 1 19 1 Nov 17 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 19 Dec 11-1 -1 1 19 1 1 1 1 9 Jan 1 11 9 1 171 7 7 1 11 - - Feb 1 1 17 17 11 Mar 11 1 7 1 17 1 1 1 11 Apr 1119 9 1 11 1 1 7 May 171 7 11 1 1 1 1 - - 19 Jun 117 179 1 17 1 1 Jul 1111 1 1 1 117 1 1 19 Aug 1 7 1 179 17 1 17 17 - - Sep 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 Oct 19 1 177 7 1 11 Nov 111-1 -1 17 11 1 Dec 1779 1 1 19 171 1 1 17 Jan 17 9 1 19 17 1 19
updated through /1/ National Economic Trends Unempl Rate Retail and Food Services Sales Billions of dollars Monthly/ quarterly Industrial Production Monthly/ quarterly Treasury Yields (Percent) -mo 1-yr 1 7 9 997-9 791 1 1 1 1 9 1 11 99 7 17 1 17 7 1 1 7 9 1 9 9 19 17 11 9 1 99 1 7 99 - - - 1 1 919 7 111 9-1 9 9 9 11 1 1 9 9 1 7 971 9 7 119 1 9 91 1 7 1 1 1 97 17 71 7 19 17 17 1 1 1 17 1 119 1 7 177 9 1 1 7 11 17 1 1 1 99 17 9 17 1 7 1 9 17 199 1 1 9 Feb 197 77 19 1 9 9 Mar 7 9 79 111 - - 9 Apr 171-1 -1 7 1 9 9 May 9 1 9 19 9 11 1 7 Jun 199-1 - 177 - - 17 7 Jul 99 1 11 199 7 7 1 Aug 7 1 1 17 7 9 1 Sep 97 17 9 77 - -9 1 Oct 9 9 11 7 9 7 17 1 Nov 7 - -1 7 1 9 7 19 Dec 79 1 177 9 17 7 19 Jan 91 - - 77 19 Feb 991 9 1 171 7 7 17 Mar 1 7 9 171 - - 7 Apr 1 1 1 91 171-1 -1 1 7 May 1 9 - -9 17 1 Jun 1 19 9 19 1 7 97 Jul 7 17 1 17 - - 1 1 Aug 9 7-1 -199 7 1 Sep 1 1 7 171-1 -17 Oct 9 1 9 11 11 1 71 Nov 7 9 11 197 11 17 Dec 9 7 19 9 11 9 7 Jan 7 9 119 - -9 1 Feb 7
National Economic Trends Consumer Price Monthly/ quarterly to date Consumer Price less Food and Energy Monthly/ quarterly to date updated through // Producer Price Finished Goods Monthly/ quarterly 1 177 11 7 17 19 1799 1 19 19-1 1 19 1 1 19 7 19 1 19 9 9 1 1 1 9 19 1 1 1 1 1 1 19 1 1 - -1 1 19 1 1 1 1 19 1 19 19 191 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 7 1 7 199 1 1 1 9 7 9 1 1 1 9 19 7 7 1 1 1 1 19 1 7 1971 1 1 1 9 1911 9 19 1 1 1 19 199 7 19 9 7 1 1 11 1 19 1 9 1 1 1 7 1 19 7 7 1 1 9 1 7 Jan 9 19 11 7 Feb 9 17 19 1 1 1 19-1 - 1 Mar 17 17 19 1 1 9 Apr 17 1 1 9 199 1 1 17 9 7 May 1 7 9 19 19 17 1 1 7 Jun 19 9 19 19-1 - 1 Jul 19 9 19 1 1 1 1-1 - 9 Aug 19 1 1 7 197 1 1 1 1 Sep 197 19 197 7 1 1 Oct 19 7 7 1979 1 19 Nov 191 19 9 117 Dec 191 19 1 1 - - Jan 191 1 1 1 199 1 1 17 1 1 1 Feb 191 9 199 7 7 Mar 19 71 7 1 99 Apr 191 7 1 1 7 May 19-1 - 9 1 1 1 - - 7 Jun 199-1 - 1 1 Jul 191 77 1 1 1 97 7 Aug 19 7 9 1 1 1 1 Sep 19 1 7 7 1 1 1 1 Oct 1991 1 1 1 9 9 Nov 197-7 -7 1 9 - - Dec 1977-1 - 1 1 1 7 Jan 199 7 1 1 7
National Economic Trends Notes Pages, : Final Sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories Advance, Preliminary, and Final GDP Growth Rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter Changes result from incorporation of more complete information Real GDP is measured in dollars The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers ) is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment Aggregate and Average Weekly Hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees The Inventory-Sales Ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data Page : For information on how to calculate the Contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p 1 The sign is changed for Imports Page 7: Ten-year Treasury Yields are adjusted to constant maturity; threemonth yields are secondary market averages All s used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity The -year constant maturity series was discontinued by the Treasury Department as of Feb 1, Standard and Poor s with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends Pages, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal Spot prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last trading day of the month Consumer Price is for all urban consumers The Consumption Chain Price is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP The Employment Cost (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers ECI Compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while Compensation per Hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits Pages 1, 11: Effective with the May Employment Situation, the establishment survey data for employment, hours, and earnings have been converted from the 197 SIC system to the NAICS system All published NAICS-based labor series have been revised back to at least 199 For more information see http://wwwblsgov/ces/ Nonfarm Payroll Employment is counted in a survey of about, establishments (Current Employment Survey) It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job The Household Survey (Current Population Survey) of about, households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment, labor force participation, and employment-population ratio Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 1 years and over The 9 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment (± percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 9,) measure uncertainty due to sample size Because the household survey was changed in January 199, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced several revisions to the Household Survey on Feb 7,, with the release of the January data For more information, see <wwwblsgov/cps/> Page 1: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment shows changes in a summary measure of consumers answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases The survey is based on a representative sample of US households Page : Gross Private Saving is the sum of personal saving, undistributed corpo profits with IVA and CCAdj (see notes for pp 1-19), and private wage accruals less disbursements Gross Government Saving is net government saving (surplus/deficit) plus consumption of fixed capital Balance on Current Account (NIPA) is net capital transfer payments to the rest of the world plus net lending or net borrowing (international trade and income flows) Pages 1, 17: Government Consumption and Investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs The Unified Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit differs from NIPA Basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; () NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; () NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and US territories; and () various timing issues are handled differently Outlays and Receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted Since 1977, the federal Fiscal starts on October 1 Excluded agency debt was percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997 Federal Debt Held by the Public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays Pages 1, 19: The Trade Balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services It is nearly identical in concept to the Net Exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details The Investment Income Balance equals income received from US-owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the US The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details The Current Account Balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the US from other countries Pages, 1: Output per Hour (Y/H), Unit Labor Cost (C/Y), and Compensation per Hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes Unit labor cost is shown on page 9 Real Compensation per Hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation Nonfarm business accounted for about 7 percent of the value of GDP in 199, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about percent Inventory Valuation Adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corpo profits and proprietors income (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP) Capital Consumption Adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest NOTE: Most measures of economic activity are now based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which replaces the 197 Standard Industry Classification (SIC) system Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), US Dept of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales Census Bureau, US Dept of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), US Dept of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt Federal Reserve Board of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange s, capacity utilization, household debt The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED) 7