U.S. Global Investors Searching for Opportunities, Managing Risk Applying Super S-Curves Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer 1.800.US.FUNDS June 2012 12-365
About U.S. Global Investors (GROW) A boutique publicly listed investment adviser specializing in gold, natural resources, emerging markets and infrastructure opportunities around the world. 2
Performance and Results Oriented Investment leadership results in performance Winner of 29 Lipper performance awards, certificates and top rankings since 2000 (Four out of 13 U.S. Global Investors Funds received Lipper performance awards from 2005 to 2008, six out of 13 received certificates from 2000 to 2007, and two out of 13 received top rankings from 2009 to 2010.) 3
Focus on Education 28 MFEA STAR Awards for Excellence in Education 4
Fund Recognition: Three Funds Rank in Top 25 for 10 Years The Global Resources Fund (PSPFX) ranked #12 World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) ranked #13 Gold & Precious Metals Fund (USERX) ranked #24 Rankings were provided to The Wall Street Journal and Barron s by Lipper and include all mutual funds and ETFs tracked by Lipper. Lipper ranked the funds based on 10-year performance data including share prices and reinvested dividends. For funds with multiple share classes, only the largest share class was included. Rankings are based on total annualized return as of 3/31/2012. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 5
U.S. Global Investors is Mobile Get Investor Alert and Frank Talk On the Go Visit /apps 6
Gas is CHEAP in the U.S. Compared to Other Countries
The Great Disconnect Global Resources are the Building Blocks of Apple 8
Compare Market Capitalizations 9
Compare Dividend Yields to 10 Year Government Note 10
Tech Stocks Lost More Than Lipper Gold Funds Combined 11
Generating Alpha 12
S&P 500 10 Sectors, 500 Stocks 13
Are You Underweight? Energy & Basic Materials 15% of S&P 500 14
Global Resources Fund Outperformed 3 year Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 15
Global Resources Fund Outperformed 10 year Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 16
Case Study in Good Government Policies: Resources Investing in Colombia 17
Good Government Policy Falling Kidnappings Protect Human Rights 2000 Pipeline attack in Colombia 18
Good Government Policy Rising Justice Budgets Protect Rule of Law 19
Good Government Policy Ease of Doing Business World Ranking Compare Colombia to Venezuela Juan Manuel Santos Calderón President of the Republic of Colombia Hugo Chávez President of Venezuela 20
Pacific Rubiales Case Study 21
HRT Case Study 22
HRT Case Study 23
Opportunities for Junior Resource Stocks BHP Exploration Offices and Explorationists 24
Predicting Attractive Tops and Bottoms Easier in South Beach vs. Markets Priority Reading Money Magazine 25
The S-Curve Big Question is Where Are We On The Curve? The S-Curve is a type of curve that shows a rapid, exponential increase in growth for a period of time, followed by a tapering or leveling off. 26
7 Billion People Tipping Point Centuries to Decades to a Decade 27
China/India Share of World GDP Increased Substantially 28
Super Shift Energy Oil Consumption per capita: 1 to 25 1 to 16 Oil Consumption and Industrialization, 1900 to present Oil per capita rises rapidly during early industrialization, then levels to rapid real income growth. Rising world trade actually stimulates the industrialization phase. Lower U.S. labor costs versus Europe and the U.K. drive American industrialization, enrichment and energy consumption Japan U.S. S. Korea 1 to 15 1 to 2 Lower Japanese labor costs do the same to the U.S. Lower Korean labor costs do the same to Japan China & India 0.9 Source: Dr. Marc Faber 29
Super Shift Electricity Intensity of electricity consumption Source: BHPB Power consumption has been growing faster than the rate of GDP growth. 30
Huge Pent-Up Demand for Automotive Transportation in the Developing World 31
Metaphor: Tipping Points, Melting Points H 2 O is Like Money Ice Turns to Water at 32º, but Still H 2 O 32
Low Real Interest Rates Historically Fuel Gold, Silver and Oil 2% Tipping Point for Gold Gold & silver perform well in low or negative real interest rate environments 33
Demographics is the Key Super Shift Rural to Urban Deng Xiaoping Half of the global population (>3 billion) is estimated to live in urban areas Projected urban population is larger than the entire world population in 1965 34
Chindia Rising Middle Class Source: padanisaa.blogspot.com 35
Bubble Negative Press on China 36
Possible Contagion 37
Hong Kong Chinese H Shares Correlate with Natural Resources 38
Hong Kong Chinese H Shares More Attractive on Relative Valuations 39
China s GDP Growth Tends to Stabilize in Fifth Year of Leadership Transition Cycle 40
Trend is Your Friend China PMI (Manufacturing) 41
China Rail Freight Volume 42
China New Bank Loans 43
China Power Production 44
Stay Tuned to the Big S-Curve 2009 1966 45
Trend is Your Friend Global PMI 15 Year 46
Government Policy Model Precursor for Change Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve President Barack Obama 47
E7 and G7 Population vs GDP 48
Compare E7 vs G7 Money Supply Growth 49
Majority of G7 and E7 Countries Have Negative Real Interest Rates 50
High Correlation of Oil and Money Supply Government will likely continue to print money, like the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to support the economy R-squared is a measure of correlation. See Disclosures page for more information. 51
Gold Fear Trade for Gold Investors Developed Countries Must Rollover a Massive $8 Trillion in 2012 (Below Inflation Rate) 52
Gold Demand Drivers 53
Warren Buffett vs. Gold Warren Buffett 54
It s Not the Political Party, It s the Political Policies 55
Fiscal 2010 U.S. Government Revenues & Expenses at a Glance 58% 56
Great Super Cycle Debt Bust Contagion 57
History Repeats Itself with Currency Debasement Russell Crowe, Gladiator 58
Declining Value of the U.S. Dollar Alan Greenspan Ben Bernanke 59
Gold Reserves Held as Financial Assets 60
Driver: The Love Trade 61
Holidays Drive Gold Demand 62
China s Increasing Jewelry Demand 63
Gold Love Trade Strong Correlation Between Rising Incomes and Gold Price 64
American Dream Trade Massive Urbanization Trend in India and China 65
Rising Incomes in Emerging Markets Sustain Demand Love Trade 66
+$4 Trillion Infrastructure Spending Globally 67
Next Wave of Infrastructure Spending Globally 68
Tipping Point Impact is About to Be Felt Quite Soon High Speed Train, China 69
Emerging High-Speed Rail Hub Cities Frank Holmes High Speed Train, China 70
High-Speed Rail is a Growth Opportunity for U.S. Companies 71
Global Oil Demand Compare G7 72
China and India Increasing Share of Global Oil Demand Chindia is 40% of the World s Population 73
Top 20 Crude Producers 74
Bad Government Policy Russian Production Growth Slowing Year-over-Year Growth 75
Historically Over 40 Percent of Global Oil Supply Under Autocratic Rule Moammar Gaddafi 76
Disruptions Often Have Long-Lived Impact Mahmoud Ahmadinejad President of Iran Hugo Chávez President of Venezuela 77
Bad Government Energy Policy in Mexico Declining Cantarell Oil Field Production Source: Secretaría de Energía de Mexico 78
Oil and Gold Undervalued Compared to Rise in Other Areas of U.S. Economy 79
Inflation-Adjusted Gold Prices in 2009 Dollars 80
Gold Would Need to Be Much Higher to Cover U.S. Money Supply 81
Fear Trade: Aligning Gold Price to Bretton Woods II $46,000/oz? 82
Managing Expectations The Math Standard Deviation (as of 3/31/12) based on 10-Year Data Rolling 1 Year NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI) 38.1% WTI Crude Oil 35.0% MSCI Emerging Markets 30.7% S&P 500 Index 19.1% Gold Bullion 13.2% 12-month rolling volatility of price action over 10-year period View the presentation Anticipate Before You Participate at /investor-resources/publications/research 83
Managing Expectations Oil Seasonality Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 84
U.S. Presidential Election Year is Traditionally a Non-Event for Energy Stocks VS. Barack Obama Mitt Romney 85
Managing Expectations Oil vs. Dollar 86
Managing Expectations Gold Seasonality Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 87
Managing Expectations 60 Day Rolling Oscillator Gold Oversold Based on Historical Math 88
Seasonality Fluctuations Appear Poised to Rebound XAU Gold Stock Index Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) Source: CIBC 89
U.S. Presidential Election Year is Traditionally a Weak Year XAU Gold Stock Index Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) Federal Election Years Barack Obama VS. Mitt Romney 90
But 2013 Should Post Better Comebacks XAU Gold Stock Index Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) Post Federal Election Years 91
Three Price Levels When Valuing Companies 1. Wholesale Price 2. Retail Price 3. Fairytale Price 92
Life Cycle of a Resource Share 93
Value Drivers for Superior Performance 94
Multiple Compression: How Long Before Revival? Baywatch 95
Oil Stocks Underperform Oil 96
Gold Stocks Underperform Bullion 97
History Repeats Itself Cash Flow Multiple Collapse and Bottom in Late 1970s 98
Managing Expectations: Promises Versus Delivery Tom Cruise, Jerry Maguire 99
The Replacement Cost for an Ounce Of Gold is $1500 with $1700 as a Sustainable Number (2012) 10 0
Oil Supply Cost Curve 101
Apple is a Want, Global Resources Are Needs: Energy, Food, Water, etc. 102
Trying to Stop a Bull Market Has Risks 103
Fund Performance 10 4
Come Visit Us at Facebook: www.facebook.com/usfunds Twitter: www.twitter.com/usfunds Frank Talk: /franktalk Investor Alert: /alert 105
Disclosures Please consider carefully a fund s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting or by calling 1-800-US- FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. Diversification does not protect an investor from market risks and does not assure a profit. Gold, precious metals, and precious minerals funds may be susceptible to adverse economic, political or regulatory developments due to concentrating in a single theme. The prices of gold, precious metals, and precious minerals are subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies. We suggest investing no more than 5% to 10% of your portfolio in these sectors. Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. Because the Global Resources Fund concentrates its investments in a specific industry, the fund may be subject to greater risks and fluctuations than a portfolio representing a broader range of industries. By investing in a specific geographic region, a regional fund s returns and share price may be more volatile than those of a less concentrated portfolio. Although Lipper makes reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data contained herein, the accuracy is not guaranteed by Lipper. Users acknowledge that they have not relied upon any warranty, condition, guarantee, or representation made by Lipper. Any use of the data for analyzing, managing, or trading financial instruments is at the user's own risk. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. Morningstar Ratings are based on risk-adjusted return. The Overall Morningstar Rating for a fund is derived from a weighted-average of the performance figures associated with its three-, five- and ten-year (if applicable) Morningstar Rating metrics. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For each fund with at least a three-year history, Morningstar calculates a Morningstar Rating based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a fund s monthly performance (including the effects of sales charges, loads, and redemption fees), placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance. The top 10% of funds in each category receive 5 stars, the next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the next 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars and the bottom 10% receive 1 star. (Each share class is counted as a fraction of one fund within this scale and rated separately, which may cause slight variations in the distribution percentages.) 106
Disclosures The Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) is an index of all stocks that trade on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS (Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks) Index (HUI) is a modified equal dollar weighted index of companies involved in gold mining. The HUI Index was designed to provide significant exposure to near term movements in gold prices by including companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond 1.5 years. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all Nasdaq National Market and SmallCap stocks. The MSCI China Free Index is a capitalization weighted index that monitors the performance of stocks from the country of China. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The index benchmark value was 500.0 at the close of trading on December 20, 2002. The Purchasing Manager s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index. It covers the largest and most liquid companies that derive at least 50 percent from gold or silver mining or have properties to do so. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a capitalization-weighted index comprised of state-owned Chinese companies (H-Shares) listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in HSMLCI index (Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index). The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver. The S&P 500 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index is a capitalization-weighted Index. The index is comprised of six stocks whose primary function is exploring for natural gas and oil resources on land or at sea. The S&P/TSX Global Gold Index is an international benchmark tracking the world's leading gold companies with the intent to provide an investable representative index of publicly-traded international gold companies. 107
Disclosures Alpha is a measure of performance on a risk-adjusted basis. Alpha takes the volatility (price risk) of a mutual fund and compares its risk-adjusted performance to a benchmark index. The excess return of the fund relative to the return of the benchmark index is a fund's alpha. M1 Money Supply includes funds that are readily accessible for spending. M2 Money Supply is a broad measure of money supply that includes M1 in addition to all time-related deposits, savings deposits, and non-institutional money-market funds. M3 money supply is the broadest monetary aggregate, including physical currency, demand accounts, savings and money market accounts, certificates of deposit, deposits of eurodollars and repurchase agreements. Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole. Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility. R-squared is a statistical measure that represents the percentage of a fund or security's movements that can be explained by movements in a benchmark index. R-squared values range from 0 to 100. An R-squared of 100 means that all movements of a security are completely explained by movements in the index. Holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX), World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) and Global Resources Fund (PSPFX) as a percentage of net assets as of 3/31/2012: HRT 0.00%; McDonald s 0.00%; Pacific Rubiales (PSPFX 0.04%); Starbucks 0.00%; General Electric 0.00%; Apple 0.00%; Sprint 0.00%; AT&T 0.00%; Verizon 0.00%; Groupon 0.00%; BHP 0.00%; Facebook 0.00%; Berkshire Hathaway 0.00%; BHP 0.00%. 108
Disclosures Investment Objective: The Global Resources Fund is an actively managed fund that takes a diversified approach to the natural resources sector by investing in energy and basic materials. The fund invests in companies involved in the exploration, production and processing of petroleum, natural gas, coal, alternative energies, chemicals, mining, iron and steel, and paper and forest products, and can invest in any part of the world. The Select Sector SPDR ETFs are passively managed funds that seek to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the performance of the S&P 500 Index. Each Select Sector SPDR is an index fund that invests in a particular sector or group of industries represented by a specified Select Sector Index. The companies included in each Select Sector Index are selected on the basis of general industry classification from a universe of companies defined by the S&P 500 Index. Liquidity: The Global Resources Fund can be purchased or sold at a net asset value (NAV) determined at the end of each trading day. The Select Sector SPDR ETFs can be purchased or sold intraday. These purchases and redemptions may generate brokerage commissions and other charges not reflected in the ETF s published expense ratio. Safety/Fluctuations of principal/return: Loss of money is a risk of investing in the Global Resources Fund and the Select Sector SPDR ETFs. Shares of the three securities are subject to sudden fluctuations in value. The Energy Select Sector and Materials Select Sector SPDR Funds may also be subject to bid-ask premiums or discounts to net asset value (NAV) that could adversely affect a shareholder s actual returns. Tax features: The Global Resources Fund may make distributions that may be taxed as ordinary income or capital gains. Under current federal law, long-term capital gains for individual investors in the fund are taxed at a maximum rate of 15%. For the Energy Select Sector and Materials Select Sector SPDR Funds, long-term capital gain distributions will result from gains on the sale or exchange of capital assets held by a Fund for more than one year. Any long-term capital gains distributions you receive from a Fund are taxable as long-term capital gain regardless of how long you have owned your shares. Long-term capital gains are currently taxed at a maximum of 15%. Information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice and is general in nature. Federal and state laws and regulations are subject to change. 109