Consumer Price Index Monthly September 2006 CPI and Inflation Figure 1: change CPI per Month of 2005-2006 The consumer price index (CPI) 1 of the total population for the month of September 2006 is 121.7. There is no change compared with the CPI of August 2006. An overview of the change of CPI ( CPI) for different periods during 2005 and 2006 are shown in Table 1. 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 1.2 0.7 1.3 0.4 Table 1 Overview in of CPI Period 2006 2005 Current Month Aug-Sep Last Quarter Jul-Sep 0.7 0.6 Last 12 Months Sep-Sep 4.1 3.7 2 to date Jan-Sep 3.6 3.3 - -0.8 Sep-05 Oct-05 - -0.4 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06-0.2 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Month Figure 1 depicts the monthly change of the CPI over a period of one year starting from September 2005, whereas the inflation for the month September for the years 1997 through 2006 is illustrated in Figure 2. Changes in In September 2006 the price indices for the sectors, Beverages & Tobacco products and Housing Group increased by approximately 0.7 compared to August 2006 (see Figure 3). Gasoline prices in the Transport & communication Group decreased by 6.3. In the sector price increases were observed in most groups, especially in the categories Sugar products & Chocolate and Potatoes, Vegetables & Fruit. Meanwhile the group who experienced the largest decrease was Fats and Oils with 2.48. Furthermore, the largest increase for all sectors was observed in the sector Housing Group for the category Garden Supplies with 21.19. In the same fashion the largest decrease was observed in the Transport & Communication Group for category Vehicle Supplies with -3.60. Reference is made further to table 8 in Appendix 1 Monthly CPI. Further, each category has its own weight. For an overview of the per category in the total basket see figure 8 in appendix 2. Figure 2: Change CPI for September of 1997-2006 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 1997 1998 1999 Figure 3: Change price index per Sep-'06 Beverages and tobacco Clothing and footwear Housing Household operation Health Transport and communication Leisure and recreational Goods and services n.e.c 0.2 2000 2001 0.6 2002 2003-1.51 2004 0.65 0.73 0.67 0 0 8 9 9 2005 2006 1 CPI measures changes in prices of consumer goods and services purchased by households. Consumer Price Indices can be intended to measure either the rate of price inflation as perceived by households, or changes in their cost of living (that is, changes in the amounts that the households need to spend in order to maintain their standard of living). (Source: Consumer Price Index Manual theory and practice). 2 The change is calculated by comparing current month of previous year to current month of concerning year. -1.55-1.05-5 -5 0.45 0.95 1
Consumer Price Index Quarterly September 2006 Quarterly Change The percentage change per quarter is calculated by comparing the index at the end of the quarter with the index at the beginning of the quarter. For instance, the quarterly change in CPI for the 3 rd quarter ( ) is calculated as follows: CPI QRT 32006 CPI Sep 2006 CPI 3 = 1 100 (1) QRT 2006 CPI Jun2006 Where CPI Sep2006 and CPI Jun2006 are the CPI s for end Quarter 3 2006 which is end September 2006 and beginning of Quarter 3 which is end previous quarter (June 2006), respectively. Subsequently, CPI QRT3 is 0.7 and is determined as follows 121.7 1 100 = 0.7 (2) 120.9 Table 2: Quarterly Change per for 3 rd Quarter 2004 2005 2006 0.6 1.3 1.5 Beverage & tobacco 0.2 0.7 1.5 Clothing & footwear 1.3 0.4 0.7 Housing - 0.9 Household operation 0.6 0.2 0.4 Health Transport & comm. -0.7 1.2-0.4 Leisure & recreational 0.4 0.4 Goods & services n.e.c. Total Index 0.2 0.6 0.7 Table: 3 Change per Quarter (Total Index) Quarter 2004 2005 2006 Jan-Mar (Q1) 0.9 0.4 0.9 Apr-Jun (Q2) 1.3 2.3 2.0 Jul-Sep (Q3) 0.2 0.6 0.7 Oct-Dec (Q4) 0.4 n.a Table 2 and Figure 4 provide an overview of the changes in price indexes per sector for the 3 rd quarter for the period 2004-2006. Further, an increase of 114.3 is observed in the Beverage & Tobacco sector and a decrease of 133.3 is observed in the Transport and communication sector. Table 3 provides a summary of the changes in CPI for the period 2004-2006. The change in CPI for the 3 rd quarter in 2005 increased with 16.7 compared to 2006 and decreased by 65 compared to previous quarter. In addition, it is observed that the largest changes took place in the 2 nd quarter. Figure 4: Quarterly Change per (Jul-Sep) Beverage & tobacco Clothing & footwear Housing Household operation Health Transport & comm. Leisure & recreational Goods & services n.e.c. -1.0-1.0 1.5 2004 2005 2006 2
Consumer Price Index ly September 2006 ly Change The same principle of calculation as discussed previously is applicable for the calculation of the yearly. In table 4 for instance, the 4.1 change for the Total index ( CPI) is determined by 121.7 1 100 (3) 116.9 The highest increase in price index compared to September previous year is observed in the housing sector namely 9.2 (see figure 5). The Beverages and Tobacco Index increased to 1.6 which is 77.8 higher than the of previous month. The transport and communication price index increased to 0.9 which is 64 lower compared to the of previous month. Table 4: Comparison between 2005 and 2006 in change July August September 4.4 4.8 4.9 Beverages and tobacco 0.9 1.6 Clothing and footwear 2.1 2.2 2.3 Housing 8.6 8.5 9.2 Household operation 1.6 1.8 1.7 Health Transport and comm. 2.0 2.5 0.9 Leisure and recreational 2.5 2.6 2.6 Goods and services n.e.c. 2.4 2.6 2.6 Total index 3.9 4.2 4.1 The yearly average is determined by comparing the yearly average Index per sector in period t with the yearly average Index per sector in period t-1. The same applies for the calculation of the average CPI. Table 5 provides an overview of the yearly average per sector and Total Index for the period 2003-2005. For an overview of yearly change for 1995-2006 year to date (till September) see figure 9 in Appendix 2. Table 5: ly Average per sector (2003-2005) 2003 2004 2005 3.1 3.9 3.8 Beverage & tobacco 4.4 0.6 1.4 Clothing & footwear 4.5 3.8 0.8 Housing 5.7 2.1 6.9 Household operation 2.7 2.0 1.8 Health Transport & comm. 2.8 2.4 2.8 Leisure and recreational 2.4 2.5 2.4 Other 2.6 1.5 2.1 Total Index 3.6 2.5 3.4 Figure 5: ly Change per for September 4.9 Beverages and tobacco Clothing and footwear Housing Household operation Health 1.6 2.3 1.7 9.2 Transport and communication 0.9 Leisure and recreational Goods and services n.e.c. 2.6 2.6 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 1 12.0 3
Consumer Price Index CPI Trading Partners Sep 2006 CPI Change of our Major Trading Partners For the 1 st year half of 2006 the import share of the two major trading partners of Aruba; USA and the Netherlands was 54.12 and 13.64 respectively 3. The import value consists of import to Aruba and Import to Free zone. Comparison of change of Aruba s CPI with its major trading partners is important regarding the fact that a large part of the goods sold on Aruba are imported. Table 6: Monthly Change CPI in 2006 per Country Month Aruba USA Curaçao Netherlands January 0.7 - February 0.7 0.4 March -0.2 0.4 0.8 April 0.6 0.2 0.4 May 1.3 0.4 0.2 June 0.2 0.2 0.2 - July 0.2 0.4 - August 0.4 0.2 0.2 1.4 September - 1.1 An overview of the monthly changes per country 4 for January up to and including September is provided in table 6. Figure 6 shows the change in CPI for Aruba and the USA. In the same fashion an overview of the yearly changes per country for the year 2001 up to and including 2005 is shown in table 7 and figure 7. The largest decrease compared to previous monthly change CPI is observed for the USA. The largest increase in monthly change CPI compared to previous month is observed for Curaçao. In the case of the yearly change CPI for 2005 compared to 2004, Curaçao has the largest increase and USA has the smallest increase. Table 7: ly Change CPI per Country 2001-2005 Country 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Aruba 2.6 4.2 2.2 2.8 3.8 USA 1.6 2.4 1.9 3.3 3.4 The Netherlands 4.2 2.8 1.7 1.2 2.0 Curaçao 0.6 2.0 2.2 4.1 Figure 6: Monthly Change CPI for Aruba and the USA Month September August July June USA May Aruba April March February -0.6-0.4-0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Figure 7: ly Change CPI per Country 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Aruba USA Curaçao Netherlands 3 Source: Foreign Trade Statistics, CBS Aruba 4 Source: US CPI: www.bls.gov NL CPI: www.cbs.nl CUR CPI: www.cbs.an 4
Consumer Price Index Table 8: Consumer Price Index Total Population Sep 2000=10 Appendix 1 Indexes September DESCRIPTION WEIGHT 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Monthly ly coefficient Apr May June July Aug Sep change change 1,469 120.6 120.7 122.8 123.2 123.9 124.7 0.65 4.9 Grain and grain products 233 111.73 111.82 112.35 112.95 113.14 113.25 9 3.5 Meat, poultry, game, fish and shellfish 320 120.48 125 121.38 122.41 124.18 123.99-6 4.7 Fats and oils 28 128.30 128.36 128.33 127.71 128.93 125.72-2.48-0.6 Dairy products 149 132.77 133.58 134.34 135.74 135.62 136.03 0.29 4.2 Potatoes, vegetables and fruit 176 137.66 137.89 140.25 141.88 143.36 149.09 3.97 12.1 Sugar, sugar products and chocolate 30 103.69 103.35 105.23 105.81 107.32 112.24 4.57 7.1 Ready to eat meals 29 106.69 106.52 107.04 107.60 108.76 109.79 0.92 4.4 Take away beverages and meals 399 117.53 117.53 122.61 121.47 121.49 121.52 0 3.4 Groceries n.e.c. 104 113.33 113.31 113.63 114.38 114.54 115.42 0.79 3.0 Beverages and tobacco products 219 109.17 109.18 109.19 109.43 109.97 110.81 0.73 1.7 Beverages 192 106.92 106.93 106.94 107.20 107.81 108.78 0.93 1.9 Tobacco products 27 125.28 125.28 125.28 125.39 125.39 125.39 0 Clothing and footwear group 1,086 126.82 126.83 127.28 127.37 128.15 128.17 8 2.3 Clothing and accessories 881 129.64 129.66 130.20 130.22 131.12 131.12 0 2.5 Footwear 204 114.62 114.62 114.68 115.08 115.34 115.44 9 1.0 Housing group 2,296 130.48 133.66 133.80 133.96 134.14 135.04 0.67 9.3 Property Rent 717 135 130.72 131.10 131.48 131.86 132.24 0.23 3.8 Domestic Fuel and power 659 135.53 141.41 141.38 141.41 141.46 141.42-7 15.1 Property maintenance goods 500 116.89 117.33 117.44 117.62 117.78 117.79 0 1.3 Garden Supplies 61 139.42 147 140.23 144 147 170.40 21.19 23.1 Water Supply 358 138.94 146.99 146.99 146.99 146.99 146.99 0 17.7 Household operation group 1,002 115.91 116.24 116.69 116.88 117.18 117.20 0 1.6 Furniture and lightning 133 107.09 107.09 107.09 107.09 107.09 106.99-9 Floor coverings and household textiles 113 131.15 131.15 131.15 131.22 131.30 131.48 5 0.6 Home appliances and tools 163 108.59 108.59 117 117 117 115 9 1.6 Household equipment and utensils 75 113.19 113.28 113.59 114.62 115.35 114.14-1.13 0.7 Household services 118 109.62 109.62 109.92 110 110.95 111.34 6 0.4 Housekeeping charges 227 119.31 129 121.16 121.42 121.96 122.07 8 4.2 Household supplies 173 120.72 120.92 120.97 121.10 121.17 121.17 0 0.6 Health group 88 103 103 103 103 103 103 0 Health services 88 103 103 103 103 103 103 0 Transport and communication group 1,967 109.56 112.18 111.45 111.83 112.84 111.09-1.51 0.9 Own transport 544 102.40 102.40 102.40 102.40 102.40 102.40 0 Vehicle supplies 712 124.60 131.74 129.73 130.77 133.52 128.68-3.60 2.0 Public Transport costs 249 102.56 102.76 102.81 102.84 102.91 102.91 0 0.6 Communication Services 462 98.58 98.58 98.58 98.58 98.58 98.58 0 Leisure and recreational goods 799 113.79 114.55 115.12 115.25 115.54 115.57 9 2.6 Costs incurred for recreational purposes 465 113.06 113.78 114.63 114.75 115.03 115.04 0 2.8 Admission charges to events and venues 89 119.13 126 120.92 121.16 121.68 121.71 0 4.1 Publications (no study material) 51 118.74 118.74 118.74 118.74 118.50 118.63 8 - Formal education fees 193 111.76 112.49 112.67 112.79 113.13 113.19 9 2.2 Goods and services n.e.c. 1,074 113.11 113.83 114.09 114.25 114.60 114.72 9 2.6 Toiletries and cosmetics 219 110.20 115 110.68 110.92 111.04 111.57 4 1.2 Insurance services 283 104.64 104.64 104.64 104.64 104.64 104.64 0 Other goods and services n.e.c. 438 118.24 119.49 119.84 126 120.69 120.70 0 4.3 Money Transfers 103 119.13 126 120.92 121.16 121.68 121.71 0 4.1 Unknown artic or not elsewhere classified 29 119.13 126 120.92 121.16 121.68 121.71 0 4.1 TOTAL INDEX 10,000 119.13 126 120.92 121.16 121.68 121.71 0 4.1 5
Consumer Price Index Appendix 2 Figure 8: CPI Weights by Major Components in (Expenditure Survey 1998) 8 11 15 2 Beverages and tobacco products Clothing and footwear group 11 Housing group Household operation group 20 Health group 1 10 22 Transport and communication group Leisure and recreational goods Goods and services n.e.c. Figure 9: ly Change 1995-2006 Till Sep 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.7 3.5 2.6 4.2 2.8 3.8 Till Sep 3.6 2.5 2.2 2 1.5 1.5 1 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 6