Pre-sales pickup key trigger

Similar documents
Brigade Enterprises. Stable performance BUY RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY19 14 NOV 2018

Brigade Enterprises BUY RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16 03 NOV Highlights of the quarter. CMP (as on 03 Nov 2015) Rs 162 Target Price Rs 210

Healty cigarette-driven growth

BLS International Services

Jubilant FoodWorks NEUTRAL RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17 30 MAY Highlights of the quarter

J. Kumar Infraprojects

Ahluwalia Contracts. Cautious optimism BUY RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17 31 MAY Highlights of the quarter

Jubilant FoodWorks BUY RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY18 18 JULY Highlights of the quarter

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals

Multi Commodity Exchange

Near-term pressure, but long-term outlook positive

Real Estate. 3QFY19E Results Preview. 11 Jan Parikshit D Kandpal, CFA

Intellect Design Arena

Marico Kaya BUY RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY15 29 APR 2015

BHEL SELL RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY15 13 AUG CMP (as on 12 Aug 2014) Rs 224 Target Price Rs 188

Navin Fluorine International

Discounting $45/bbl of realisation

Neuland Labs BUY RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 12 AUG 2018

PI Industries BUY RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 07 AUG Highlights of the quarter

NRB Bearings. Strong Show BUY RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY18 23 MAY Highlights of the quarter

Central Depository Services

J. Kumar Infraprojects

Central Depository Services

PSP Projects. Marginal miss BUY RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 10 AUG 2018

Residential recovery awaited

Torrent Pharma BUY RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY18 01 AUG 2017

Gulf Oil Lubricants BUY RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 09 AUG Key highlights

Sun Pharma BUY RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 16 AUG 2018

Capital Goods. 3QFY18E Results Preview. 10 Jan Sujit Jain

Central Depository Services

Vinati Organics BUY RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY19 29 OCT INDUSTRY CHEMICALS CMP (as on 29 Oct 2018) Rs 1,408 Target Price Rs 1,700

Real Estate. 4QFY17E Results Preview. 13 Apr Parikshit D Kandpal

Agrochemicals. 3QFY18E Results Preview 09 JAN Basanth Patil

Dilip Buildcon. Strong comeback BUY RESULT REVIEW 1QFY19 16 AUG Highlights of the quarter. CMP (as on 16 Aug 2018) Rs 847 Target Price Rs 1,434

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation

Weak show, DCCDL key trigger

Alkem Labs BUY RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 11 AUG story remains on-track. Maintain BUY with a revised TP of Rs 2,410 (24x FY20E EPS).

Maruti Suzuki. A Trough Quarter BUY RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 25 JAN CMP(as on 25 Jan 2019) Rs 6,516 Target Price Rs 7,400

Reliance Industries. Timing is everything BUY COMPANY UPDATE 1 OCT 2014

Ambuja Cement. Realisations-driven beat SELL RESULTS REVIEW 2QCY17 25 JUL Highlights of the quarter

Mahanagar Gas BUY RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 01 AUG Highlights of the quarter. CMP (as on 1 Aug 2018) Rs 947 Target Price Rs 1,292

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation

Alkem Labs BUY RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 09 FEB CMP (as on 08 Feb 2019) Rs 1,904 Target Price Rs 2,340. Highlights of the quarter

ICICI Prudential Life

Hindustan Unilever BUY RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17 18 MAY 2017

Kalpataru Power Transmission

Strong volumes, offset by costs

Construction. 4QFY18E Results Preview 14 APR Parikshit D Kandpal

NIIT Technologies. NEUTRAL Higher capex weighing on FCF RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY15 16 OCT 2014

Max Financial. Improving margins! BUY RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY18 30 MAY Highlights of the quarter

Tata Steel. JV comes to fruition BUY COMPANY UPDATE 21 SEP Other key highlights. CMP (as on 20 Sep 17) Rs 688 Target Price Rs 818

Carborundum Universal

Music Broadcast. In-line but muted BUY RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY19 26 OCT Key highlights. CMP (as on 26 Oct 2018) Rs 328 Target Price Rs 387

Exide Industries BUY RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY18 08 MAY Highlights of the quarter. CMP (as on 08 May 2018) Rs 268 Target Price Rs 298

Dishman Carbogen Amcis

Jubilant Life Sciences

Geared for version 3.0

Agriculture. 4QFY18E Results Preview 13 APR Madhukar Ladha

Bajaj Auto NEUTRAL RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16 23 OCT Key highlights. CMP (as on 23 Oct 2015) Rs 2,514 Target Price Rs 2,720

Cyient. Good show, priced in NEUTRAL RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17 21 APRIL Highlights of the quarter

Weak quarter but well placed

Bharat Petroleum Corporation

Bharti Infratel BUY RESULT REVIEW 3QFY19 25 JAN 2019

Navin Fluorine International

Coromandel International

Sonata Software. On growth path BUY RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY18 16 AUG Highlights of the quarter

Hero MotoCorp BUY RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY19 16 OCT CMP (as on 16 Oct 2018) Rs 2,898 Target Price Rs 3,602. Highlights of the quarter

Dr. Reddy s Labs. Misery continues SELL RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY18 28 JUL 2017

Bajaj Auto BUY RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY18 21 JUL Highlights of the quarter

Weak numbers in peak quarter

Lupin BUY COMPANY UPDATE 12 SEP 2013

Ambuja Cement. Weak numbers SELL RESULTS REVIEW 1QCY17 01 MAY 2017

Subros BUY RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY19 30 OCT CMP (as on 29 Oct 2018) Rs 268 TP Rs 435. Key highlights

Suprajit Engineering. Synergies to accrue BUY COMPANY UPDATE 16 SEP 2016

Hexaware Technologies

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals

ITD Cementation (India) Ltd.

Insecticides India BUY RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17 30 MAY 2017

Radico Khaitan BUY RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 24 JAN 2019

Outperformance continues

Emami NEUTRAL RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY15 14 MAY 2015

JBM Auto. Ready to take off BUY RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 07 AUG Key highlights

Multi Commodity Exchange

IRB Infrastructure Developers

Mphasis. Growth drivers intact BUY RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 25 JAN 2019

Thangamayil BUY RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY19 15 NOV 2018

Launch momentum picks up

Bharat Forge. Cyclical headwinds persist but structural story intact BUY COMPANY UPDATE 9 DEC Key takeaways

Construction & Infra. 1QFY19E Results Preview 10 JUL Parikshit D Kandpal

ITC BUY RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 27 JUL 2018

IRB Infrastructure Developers

Margin boost through non-core book

Mindtree. Steady quarter, Upside capped NEUTRAL RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 18 APR INDUSTRY CMP (as on 16 Apr 2019) Rs 972 Target Price Rs 1,040

Oil & Gas. 4QFY17E Results Preview. 13 Apr Deepak Kolhe

Coal India. Tough times BUY COMPANY UPDATE 22 AUG CMP (as on 21 Aug 17) Rs 238 Target Price Rs 300

V-Guard BUY RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 02 FEB 2019

Chemicals and Fertilisers

Growth + cash flows = BUY

FIRSTSOURCE SOLUTIONS LTD.

Transcription:

RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 18 AUG 2018 Brigade Enterprises INDUSTRY REAL ESTATE CMP (as on 17 Aug 2018) Rs 192 Target Price Rs 299 Nifty 11,471 Sensex 37,948 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg BRGD IN No. of Shares (mn) 136 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 26/372 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 24 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 325/177 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (22.0) (32.8) (27.3) Relative (%) (29.9) (44.4) (46.7) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 46.72 FIs & Local MFs 15.71 FPIs 13.42 Public & Others 24.15 Source : BSE Parikshit D Kandpal parikshitd.kandpal@hdfcsec.com +91-22-6171-7317 Kunal Bhandari kunal.bhandari@hdfcsec.com +91-22-6639-3035 Pre-sales pickup key trigger Adoption of IND AS 115 had a negative impact on reserves of Rs 4.1bn. Revenue for 1QFY19 came in at Rs 7.0bn. Due to IND AS 115, revenue was higher by Rs 1.2bn. EBIDTA margins increased 293bps YoY to 25.7%. Interest cost increased 3.4% YoY to Rs 628mn. APAT came in at Rs 631mn. During 1QFY19, 2 real estate projects of 0.7mn sqft (BEL 0.6mn sqft share) were launched. 1QFY19 Real Estate pre-sales came in at 0.43mn sqft; Rs 2.2bn (+37% YoY). Realisation was Rs 5,122/sqft. BEL held an annual showcase in Jul-18, which saw 9 new launches and has driven sales of ~0.6mn sqft (office+ resi) in 2QFY19 so far. BEL has future plans of 13mnsqft of launches (Resi 8mn sqft and Commercial 5mn sqft) in addition to 2 hotels (~300 keys). With a ramp up in the annuity portfolio we expect leasing to contribute Rs 3.7bn in FY20E. We maintain BUY with SOTP-based TP of Rs 299/sh. BUY Highlights of the quarter Hospitality segment improved traction: During 4QFY18 hospitality projects were demerged into separate entities. BEL has appointed bankers for getting a strategic investor, but immediate traction not expected. While Chennai Holiday Inn is doing reasonably well (avg. occupancy 62% in its 1 st year), Bengaluru Holiday Inn is still in the process of stabilization. BEL is confident of commencing 218 keys Sheraton by 3QFY19E. 2QFY19 has started off well: Post 1QFY19 in ~45days BEL has managed to sell ~0.4mnsqft residential (vs 0.4mn sqft in 1QFY19) taking YTDFY19 sales to ~0.8mn sqft. Additionally ~0.2mn sqft new office sales have been effected post 1QFY19 taking total to ~1mn sqft. Leasing trends improving: Bengaluru market has witnessed a 5-10% uptick in rental yields. In 1QFY19, BEL has signed 0.5mn sqft of new leases (which will generate ~Rs 240mn of additional revenue). Tech Gardens 1 st phase (1.2mn sqft) has been advanced to Mar-19 and remaining leasable area of ~1.8mn sqft should get complete by Sep-19 (max 2 months delay). Financial Summary (Consolidated) Year Ending March (Rs mn) 1QFY19 1QFY18 YoY (%) 4QFY18 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Net Sales 6,991 5,550 26.0 4,335 61.3 20,241 18,972 20,984 25,911 EBITDA 1,795 1,263 42.2 1,349 33.1 5,744 5,545 6,205 7,380 APAT 631 314 100.7 296 113.2 1,531 1,507 1,598 1,940 Diluted EPS (Rs) 4.6 2.3 100.7 2.2 113.2 11.3 11.1 11.7 14.3 P/E (x) 17.2 17.5 16.5 13.6 EV / EBITDA (x) 8.8 10.3 9.8 8.7 RoE (%) 9.4 6.9 6.8 7.8 HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

Adoption of IND AS 115 had a net impact on reserves reversal by Rs 4.1bn Revenue for 1QFY19 came in at Rs 7.0bn (+26.0%YoY, +61.3% QoQ). Due to IND AS 115, revenue was higher by Rs 1.2bn EBIDTA margins increased 293bps YoY and declined by 544bps QoQ to 25.7% APAT stood at Rs 631mn During 1QFY19, 2 real estate projects of 0.7mn sqft (BEL 0.6mn sqft share) were launched 1QFY19 Real Estate sales Rs 0.43mn sqft; Rs 2.2bn (+37% YoY) Realisation was Rs 5,122/sqft (-12.8% YoY, - 7.1% QoQ) Quarterly Financial Snapshot (Consolidated) Particulars (Rs mn) 1QFY19 1QFY18 YoY (%) 4QFY18 QoQ (%) Net Sales 6,991 5,550 26.0 4,335 61.3 Construction Expenses (3,817) (2,942) 29.7 (1,555) 145.5 Employee Expenses (463) (385) 20.4 (343) 34.9 Other Operating Expenses (916) (961) (4.7) (1,088) (15.8) EBITDA 1,795 1,263 42.2 1,349 33.1 Interest Cost (628) (608) 3.4 (746) (15.8) Depreciation (317) (317) (0.1) (372) (14.9) Other Income + Exceptional 88 97 (9.4) 26 237.3 PBT 938 435 115.7 257 265.5 Minority Interest - (17) (100.0) (25) (100.0) Share of associates/ci 6 5 32.6 1 454.5 Tax (313) (142) 120.5 (102) 206.7 Exceptional items - - - 115 - APAT 631 314 100.7 296 113.2 Margin Analysis (Consolidated) 1QFY19 1QFY18 YoY (bps) 4QFY18 QoQ (bps) Material Expenses % Net Sales 54.6 53.0 160 35.9 1,873 Employee Expenses % Net Sales 6.6 6.9 (31) 7.9 (130) Other Exp % Net Sales 13.1 17.3 (422) 25.1 (1,199) EBITDA Margin (%) 25.7 22.8 293 31.1 (544) Tax Rate (%) 33.4 32.7 72 39.8 (641) APAT Margin (%) 9.0 5.7 336 6.8 220 Pre-sales Trend 1QFY19 1QFY18 YoY (%) 4QFY18 QoQ (%) Sales Volume (mn sqft) 0.4 0.3 36.9 0.4 0.2 Sales Value (Rs mn) 2,185 1,830 19.4 2,347 (6.9) Average Realization (Rs/sqft) 5,117 5,865 (12.8) 5,509 (7.1) Page 2

Gross debt decreased by Rs 0.5bn to Rs 29.0bn. Net D/E decreased to 0.83x (under old POCM accounting) vs. 0.89x in 4QFY18 BEL has to incur Rs 21.2bn in asset capex and Rs 3.3bn in land over the next three yrs. With Rs 27.2bn expected pretax cash flows from real estate projects; BEL is placed well to meet the capex requirement We expect BEL s ongoing projects to generate pre-tax surplus of Rs 27.2bn. Timing shall be crucial to meet the heavy Rs 7-9bn of annual capex over FY19-20E Consolidated gross debt decreased to Rs 29.0bn; net D/E decreased to 0.83x (as per POCM) BEL s consolidated 1QFY19 net D/E decreased to 0.83x vs 0.89x QoQ (Consolidated net debt decreased to Rs 25.7bn). This was primarily on account of decrease of Rs 2bn in real estate debt to Rs 6.0bn. Leasing/Hospitality debt increased marginally by Rs 1.0/(0.4)bn respectively QoQ. Cost of debt has reduced to 9.18%, as compared to 9.21% in 4QFY18 and 9.84% in 1QFY18. We expect consolidated gross debt to increase to Rs 38.0bn by FY20E as BEL will incur heavy capex (Rs 7-9bn annually) over FY19-20E. Net D/E will peak at 1.5x in a worstcase scenario. Debt/Equity Ratio Trend (X) (Consolidated) (Rs mn) 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 1QFY19* Net debt 12,645 12,856 17,902 18,546 19,256 19,026 19,533 18,481 20,115 23,120 25,772 25,650 25,650 Net worth 14,276 14,579 18,003 18,873 20,834 21,201 23,091 27,807 28,194 28,543 28,890 30,903 26,443 Net D/E (x) 0.89 0.88 0.99 0.98 0.92 0.90 0.85 0.66 0.71 0.81 0.89 0.83 0.89 ; *1QFY19 is as per IND AS 115 Details Of Ongoing Projects Ongoing BEL projects Ongoing SPV projects Stock sales Area (mn sqft) Total Launched Saleable Area 8.6 2.66 1.18 12.44 Less: LO Share 1.67 - - 1.67 Co Share Of Saleable Area 6.93 2.66 1.18 10.77 Sold Till Date 2.98 1.31-4.29 To Be Sold 3.94 1.36 1.18 6.48 Estimated Sale value (Rs mn) Value Of Sold Units 15,500 7,166-22,666 Value Of Unsold Units 19,472 7,564 5,183 22,666 Total Sale Value - a 34,971 14,730 5,183 54,884 Collection Till Date On Sold Units - b 9,296 5,393-14,689 Balance Collection (Including Sold Units) - c = a-b 25,675 9,338 5,183 40,195 Estimated Cost For Projects (Incl Land/NRD) - d 22,939 8,386 3,558 34,883 Cost Incurred Till Date - e 12,630 5,109 3,558 21,297 Balance Cost To Be Incurred f = d-e 10,309 3,277-13,586 Pre-tax Surplus - g = c-f 14,863 7,003 5,369 27,236 Total Page 3

BEL has stated that launches of 13mnsqft are planned (8mn sqft in residential) 15.0% FY19-20E rental growth We have estimated 21.4% EPS growth for FY19-20E Key Assumptions and Estimates Volume assumptions Residential - Brigade share (mn sqft) Estimates Growth (%) Comments FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E 2.4 2.0 56.1 (19.7) After a muted FY18, we expect pre-sales to pick up over FY19-20E on the back of 5.88mn sqft of residential new launches and unsold inventory (conso) of 6.48mn sqft Average rate (Rs/sqft) 5,726 6,101 0.1 6.6 Price trend to remain sluggish Sales value - Brigade share (Rs mn) 14,001 11,983 56.2 (14.4) Rental Income: Gross area for lease (mnsf) 3.7 5.2 52.6 Addition of new assets will lead to a gradual ramp-up of annuity 41.0 portfolio Average Occupancy (%) 80.0 70.0 - (1,000.0) Brigade leased space (mnsf) 2.9 3.6 35.6 23.3 Multiplied by average occupancy Average Rental (Rs/sqft/month) 96 89 (16.6) (6.7) Rental trend in line with product mix Brigade share - Net rental income (Rs mn) 3,363 3,869 13.1 15.0 15.0% FY19-20E rental growth Earnings forecast Residential Sales (Rs mn) 15,365 19,242 11.6 25.2 Revenue to improve as recognition hurdles are met over FY19-20E Rental income (Rs mn) 2,863 3,669 27.5 28.1 Rental growth in line with new lease addition mentioned above Hospitality (Rs mn) 2,755 3,000 28.6 8.9 8.9% FY19-20E growth in line with hospitality assets addition Total 20,984 25,911 15.6 23.5 2.6% CAGR for FY18-20E EBIDTA (Rs mn) 6,205 7,380 11.9 18.9 EBIDTA Margin (%) 29.6 28.5 (97.7) (108.7) Margins to remain flattish Net interest expense* 2,674 3,029 3.1 13.3 Interest to increase marginally PAT (Rs mn) 1,598 1,940 6.0 21.4 21.4% PAT growth for FY19-20E PAT Margin (%) 7.6 7.5 (68.7bps) (13.1bps) EPS (Rs) 11.7 14.3 6.0 21.4 Cash flows forecast CFO - a 6,400 8,465 CFI - b (7,046) (8,792) Increased capex to result in negative FCFF FCF - a+b (646) (327) CFF-c (2,072) 1,573 Debt and interest repayments Total change in cash - a+b+c (2,718) 1,246 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Page 4

We value the residential Real Estate business at Rs 41/share, Commercial Annuity assets at Rs 309/share, Hospitality at Rs 101/share, Land Bank at Rs 88/share We reduce net debt (economic interest) and balance land payments at Rs 214/share and Rs 24/share respectively, to arrive at a total SOTP valuation of Rs 299/share The decrease in NAV (earlier NAV of Rs 310/sh) is to factor in the increased debt which is further expected to increase over FY19-20E We maintain BUY on BEL with a TP of Rs 299/sh Valuation Sum Of The Parts: NAV Rs 299/sh Rs mn Rs/share Comments Gross NAV Residential/Commercial Sale 5,528 41 NAV based on the methodology discussed Land Bank 12,002 88 NAV based on the methodology discussed Gross NAV Office/Retail/Malls 41,981 309 NAV based on the methodology discussed Hotels 13,771 101 15x FY20E EV/EBIDTA Total GAV (Rs mn) 73,282 539 Gross net asset value Less: Net Debt 29,186 214 FY19E net debt (economic interest) Less: Unpaid Land Cost 3,331 24 As per 4QFY18 presentation NAV 40,766 299 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research SOTP valuation We have adopted DCF methodology to arrive at BEL s NAV/share. We value the Residential Real Estate business at Rs 41/share, Commercial Annuity Assets at Rs 309/share, Hospitality at Rs 101/share, Land bank at Rs 88/share and reduce net debt and balance land payments at Rs 214/share and Rs 24/share, respectively, to arrive at a total SOTP valuation of Rs 299/share. We don t ascribe any NAV discount to BEL, as we have only valued projects that have visibility over the next five years. We have valued the land bank beyond that period at current market rates. Real estate development: NAV calculation methodology We have divided BEL s entire land bank (with launch visibility over the next five years) into Residential projects (based on the information given by the company). We have arrived at the sales price/sq ft and anticipated sales volumes for each project, based on our discussions with industry experts. We have deducted the cost of construction based on our assumed cost estimates, which have been arrived at after discussions with experts. We have further deducted marketing and other costs that have been assumed at 5% of the sales revenue. We have deducted income tax based on the tax applicable for the project. The resultant cash inflows at the project level have been discounted, based on WACC of 12% (cost of equity 17% based on beta of 1.6x and debt/equity ratio of 0.5x). All the project-level NAVs have then been summed up to arrive at the NAV of the company. For commercial office/retail space, we have discounted rentals using 12% WACC for the forecasted period and terminal value using the cap rate of 7.7%. For land beyond the five-year visibility, we have valued at the current market price. We have valued Hotels at 15x FY19E EV/EBIDTA From the NAV, we have deducted the net debt (economic interest) and likely outgo on balance land payments to arrive at the final valuation of the company. Page 5

1% increase in average base sale price impacts our NAV positively by 1.9% Every 100bps increase in sales price inflation impacts our NAV positively by 5.2% 100bps increase in cost inputs decreases our NAV by 3.4% 100bps increase in discounting rate impacts our NAV negatively by 4.6% We have revised our estimates to reflect the increased interest cost on account of increased debt assumed NAV sensitivity analysis Sensitivity to property prices Our model is sensitive to changes in the assumptions regarding property prices. For every 1% change in the base property prices (see exhibit above for base price assumptions), the NAV will change by approximately 1.9%. NAV Sensitivity To Change In Average Sale Price % change in sale price (10) (5) 0 5 10 NAV/share (Rs) 242 271 299 328 358 Change in NAV (%) (19.3) (9.5) - 9.7 19.5 Sensitivity of NAV to changes in sales inflation In our base case, we have assumed annual sale price inflation at 5%. For every 100bps increase in the annual sale price inflation, the NAV will increase by ~5.2%. NAV Sensitivity To Change In Sales Inflation Sales inflation rates (%) 3 4 5 6 7 NAV/share (Rs) 276 283 299 315 331 Change in NAV (%) (10.9) (5.4) - 5.2 10.5 Sensitivity of NAV to changes in cost inflation In our base case, we have assumed the cost of inflation to be 6%. For every 100bps increase in construction cost inflation, the NAV will change by about 3.4%. NAV Sensitivity To Change In Cost Inflation Cost inflation rates (%) 4 5 6 7 8 NAV/share (Rs) 321 310 299 289 279 Change in NAV (%) 7.1 3.5 - (3.4) (6.9) The combined impact of a 100bps increase in sales price inflation and cost inflation will be a NAV increase of 1.8%. Sensitivity of NAV to changes in the discount rate In our base case, we have assumed a discount rate of 16%. For every 100bps increase in the discount rate, the NAV will fall by 4.6%. NAV Sensitivity To Change In WACC WACC rates (%) 10 11 12 13 14 NAV/share (Rs) 326 313 299 286 272 Change in NAV (%) 8.8 4.4 - (4.6) (9.1) Change in Estimates (Consolidated) Rs mn FY19E New FY19E Old % Change FY20E New FY20E Old % Change Revenues 20,984 20,984 (0.0) 25,911 25,911 0.0 EBIDTA 6,205 6,205 (0.0) 7,380 7,380 (0.0) EBIDTA Margins (%) 29.6 29.6 (0.0) 28.5 28.5 (0.0) APAT 1,598 1,620 (1.3) 1,940 1,976 (1.8) Adj. EPS (INR) 11.75 11.9 (1.3) 14.26 14.52 (1.8) Page 6

Income Statement (Consolidated) Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Net Sales 20,379 20,241 18,972 20,984 25,911 Growth (%) 55.5 (0.7) (6.3) 10.6 23.5 Material Expenses 11,584 10,025 8,448 9,551 12,519 Employee Expenses 1,252 1,433 1,545 1,622 1,866 Other Operating Expenses 2,642 3,040 3,434 3,606 4,147 EBIDTA 4,902 5,744 5,545 6,205 7,380 EBIDTA (%) 24.1 28.4 29.2 29.6 28.5 EBIDTA Growth (%) 28.0 18.0 3.0 1.2 (3.7) Other Income 328 342 483 488 493 Depreciation 1,059 1,226 1,377 1,664 2,001 EBIT 4,170 4,861 4,651 5,029 5,872 Interest 1,990 2,465 2,594 2,674 3,029 Exceptional items - - 115 - - PBT 2,180 2,396 1,942 2,355 2,843 Tax 802 736 628 706 853 PAT 1,378 1,660 1,314 1,648 1,990 Minority Interest 151 141 (63) 50 50 Share of associates 13 12 15 - - EO items (net of tax) - - 115 - - APAT 1,240 1,531 1,507 1,598 1,940 APAT Growth (%) 30.2 23.5 (1.5) 6.0 21.4 EPS 9.1 11.3 11.1 11.7 14.3 EPS Growth (%) 30.2 23.5 (1.5) 6.0 21.4 Balance Sheet (Consolidated) As at March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital 1,132 1,137 1,361 1,361 1,361 Reserves 14,246 15,813 21,510 22,710 24,252 Total Shareholders Funds 15,378 16,950 22,871 24,071 25,613 Minority Interest 1,238 2,274 2,231 2,281 2,331 Long Term Debt 15,004 15,885 26,331 27,331 32,331 Short Term Debt 9,583 9,878 7,566 7,566 7,566 Total Debt 24,587 25,763 33,897 34,897 39,897 Deferred Taxes 619 455 22 69 426 Long Term Provisions & Others 1,153 1,127 1,725 1,762 1,800 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 42,976 46,569 60,745 63,080 70,067 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 3,499 4,794 8,171 13,407 18,306 CWIP 13,967 15,637 21,291 21,291 22,791 Goodwill 43 43 43 43 43 Investments + Inv. Property 8,787 10,009 10,380 10,380 10,380 Other Non Current Assets 4,473 4,852 6,927 7,865 9,176 Inventories 23,067 22,639 21,795 22,122 22,896 Debtors 429 374 1,770 1,787 1,805 Cash & Equivalents + Treasury investments 1,089 1,363 3,279 561 1,807 Advances and Other current assets 3,457 3,624 4,205 4,224 4,442 Total Current Assets 28,043 28,000 31,048 28,694 30,950 Creditors 4,240 5,161 5,265 5,528 5,804 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 11,598 11,605 11,850 13,396 15,775 Total Current Liabilities 15,837 16,767 17,115 18,600 21,579 Net Current Assets 12,206 11,233 13,933 10,093 9,370 Misc Expenses & Others - - - - - TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 42,975 46,568 60,745 63,080 70,067 Page 7

Cash Flow (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E PAT 1,614 1,640 994 1,648 1,990 Non-operating & EO items (252) (218) (336) (488) (493) Interest expenses 1,990 2,465 2,594 2,674 3,029 Depreciation 1,059 1,226 1,377 1,664 2,001 Working Capital Change (1,025) (1,134) (4,141) 902 1,938 OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 3,387 3,978 487 6,400 8,465 Capex (9,084) (3,686) (9,140) (7,534) (9,285) Free cash flow (FCF) (5,697) 292 (8,652) (1,134) (820) Investments + Other income (396) 340 (1,703) 488 493 INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (9,480) (3,346) (10,842) (7,046) (8,792) Share capital Issuance and Misc 54 25 4,955 0 0 Debt Issuance 9,036 1,747 8,002 1,000 5,000 Interest expenses (2,239) (2,350) (2,232) (2,674) (3,029) Dividend (543) (1) (408) (398) (398) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) 6,307 (579) 10,317 (2,072) 1,573 NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 214 54 (38) (2,718) 1,246 Other deposits and investments 436 656 2,610 0 0 Closing Cash & Equivalents 1,089 1,363 3,279 561 1,807 Key Ratios (Consolidated) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E PROFITABILITY (%) GPM 43.2 50.5 55.5 54.5 51.7 EBITDA Margin 24.1 28.4 29.2 29.6 28.5 EBIT Margin 20.5 24.0 24.5 24.0 22.7 APAT Margin 6.1 7.6 7.9 7.6 7.5 RoE 8.5 9.4 6.9 6.8 7.8 Core RoCE 15.0 19.6 20.6 21.6 22.6 RoCE 12.9 13.7 10.7 9.8 10.4 EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) 36.8 30.7 32.4 30.0 30.0 Asset Turnover (x) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 Inventory (days) 345 412 427 382 317 Debtors (days) 5 7 21 31 25 Payables (days) 65 85 100 94 80 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 285 335 348 319 263 Debt/EBITDA (x) 5.0 4.5 6.1 5.6 5.4 Net D/E 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 Interest Coverage 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.9 PER SHARE DATA EPS (Rs/sh) 9.1 11.3 11.1 11.7 14.3 CEPS (Rs/sh) 16.9 20.3 21.2 24.0 29.0 DPS (Rs/sh) 3.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 BV (Rs/sh) 113.0 124.6 168.1 176.9 188.2 VALUATION P/E 21.3 17.2 17.5 16.5 13.6 P/BV 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.0 EV/EBITDA 10.2 8.8 10.3 9.8 8.7 OCF/EV (%) 6.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 FCF/EV (%) (11.4) 0.6 (15.2) (1.9) (1.3) FCFE/Market Cap (%) 4.2 (1.2) (10.9) (10.6) 4.4 Dividend Yield (%) 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.1 Page 8

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY 350 330 310 290 270 250 230 210 190 170 150 Brigade TP Rating Definitions BUY Date CMP Reco Target 9-Aug-17 264 NEU 288 11-Oct-17 261 BUY 288 15-Nov-17 276 BUY 310 12-Jan-18 315 NEU 328 16-Apr-18 250 BUY 328 17-May-18 246 BUY 310 18-Aug-18 192 BUY 299 : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period Page 9

Disclosure: We, Parikshit Kandpal, MBA, and Kunal Bhandari, ACA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. Any holding in stock No HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475. Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HSL or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purposes without prior written approval of HSL. Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HSL may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this mail and/or its attachments. HSL and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions. HSL, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. HSL and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report. HSL or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. HSL or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from t date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business. HSL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HSL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. HSL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research Report. HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: complianceofficer@hdfcsec.com Phone: (022) 3045 3600 HDFC Securities Limited, SEBI Reg. No.: NSE-INB/F/E 231109431, BSE-INB/F 011109437, AMFI Reg. No. ARN: 13549, PFRDA Reg. No. POP: 04102015, IRDA Corporate Agent License No.: HDF 2806925/HDF C000222657, SEBI Research Analyst Reg. No.: INH000002475, CIN - U67120MH2000PLC152193 Mutual Funds Investments are subject to market risk. Please read the offer and scheme related documents carefully before investing. Page 10

HDFC securities Institutional Equities Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel,Mumbai - 400 013 Board : +91-22-6171 7330www.hdfcsec.com Page 11