Information provided by. Jacksonville State University Center for Economic Development and Business Research School of Business & Industry

Information provided by Jacksonville State University Center for Economic Development and Business Research School of Business & Industry

Connecting Our Greater Communities: Overview CEAZ Update (#2-#75) Mark Hearn - JSU SOBI State of Alabama Update (#76-#128) Richard Cobb - JSU SOBI Regional & National Update (To and Beyond) Lesley McClure Vice President and Regional Executive with Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Birmingham Branch 1 CEAZ Members: Calhoun 2 4 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

CEAZ Members: Clay 3 CEAZ Members: Cleburne 4 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 5

CEAZ Members: St. Clair 5 CEAZ Members: Talladega 6 6 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Economic Outlook Surveys for United States and Alabama United States Alabama 7 U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jan 2013 July 2017 (Prelim) 100 90 80 70 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source: University of Michigan Institute of Social Research Last 12 Months +3.44% 8 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 7

State Survey 3rd Quarter 2017 Approximately 172 business executives Operated by University of Alabama Center for Business and Economic Research cber.cba.ua.edu 9 Overall Economic Outlook for AL Q2 17 vs to Q3 17 % of Respondents 70% 60% 55.0% 50% 40% 33.3% 30% 20% 10% 6.4% 4.7% 0.6% 0% Much Worse Worse Remain Same Better Much Better Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 10 8 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Overall Economic Outlook Index AL Q2 15 Q3 17 Index Value 70 65 60 55 50 57.6 Q3 17 Index Down 3.6 pts 54.8 51.2 53.0 55.1 52.4 52.6 62.7 65.2 61.6 45 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 11 Hiring Outlook AL Q2 17 vs Q3 17 % of Respondents 60% 45% 30% 15% 0% 1.8% Strong Decrease 6.4% Moderate Decrease 49.1% No Change 39.8% Moderate Increase 2.9% Strong Increase Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 12 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 9

Hiring Outlook Index AL Q2 15 Q3 17 Index Value 65 60 55 50 56.8 Q3 17 Index Down 1.8 pts 52.8 51.6 53.8 54.3 50.2 51.9 57.6 60.7 58.9 45 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 13 Sales Outlook AL Q2 17 vs Q3 17 % of Respondents 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2.3% Strong Decrease 8.8% Moderate Decrease 30.4% No Change 53.2% Moderate Increase 5.3% Strong Increase Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 14 10 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Sales Outlook Index AL Q2 15 Q3 17 Index Value 70 65 60 55 50 62.3 Q3 17 Index Down 4.6 pts 58.4 53.1 55.2 60.1 54.9 55.9 63.4 67.2 62.6 45 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 15 Capital Expenditures Outlook AL Q2 17 to Q3 17 % of Respondents 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1.2% Strong Decrease 5.8% Moderate Decrease 49.7% No Change 39.2% Moderate Increase 4.1% Strong Increase Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 16 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 11

Capital Expenditures Outlook Index AL Q2 15 Q3 17 Index Value 65 60 55 50 55.4 Q3 17 Index Down 2.1 pts 52.3 51.5 53.1 54.2 53.4 52.0 58.5 61.9 59.8 45 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 17 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone (CEAZ): Overview Population Trends (#19-#24) Income (#25-33) Sales Tax Revenues (#34) Labor Force Statistics (#35-#74) Dr. Mark Hearn, JSU School of Business and Industry 18 12 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

120 118 Population Trends Calhoun County 2007-2016 in Thousands 118.4 117.8 117.3 116.7 In 1,000 116 114 112.8 113.4 114.1 115.9 115.6 114.6 112 110 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 19 14.1 Population Trends Clay County 2007-2016 in Thousands In 1,000 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.8 13.8 13.6 13.9 13.7 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 20 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 13

Population Trends Cleburne County 2007-2016 in Thousands In 1,000 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.4 14.2 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 21 In 1,000 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 79.3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Trends St. Clair County 2007-2016 in Thousands 81.2 83.0 85.6 82.4 85.5 86.3 86.7 87.1 88.0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 22 14 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

83 Population Trends Talladega County 2007-2016 in Thousands In 1,000 82 81 80 80.2 80.5 80.2 82.0 81.8 81.8 81.1 81.3 80.9 80.1 79 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 23 In 1,000 320 310 300 301 Population Trends CEAZ 2007-2016 in Thousands 304 306 315 311 313 313 313 312 311 290 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 24 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 15

In 1,000 $34 $32 $30 $28 $28.3 Per Capital Personal Income Calhoun County 2006-2015 in 1,000s $29.9 $30.7 $30.1 $30.7 $31.4 $31.7 $31.3 $32.4 $33.4 $26 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 25 Per Capital Personal Income Clay County 2006-2015 in 1,000s $34 $33.0 In 1,000 $32 $30 $28 $27.9 $28.1 $28.2 $28.3 $28.9 $28.4 $29.5 $30.5 $31.7 $26 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 26 16 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

In 1,000 $33 $31 $29 $27 $25 Per Capital Personal Income Cleburne County 2006-2015 in 1,000s $24.0 $24.7 $26.8 $26.4 $27.3 $27.9 $29.1 $29.9 $30.7 $31.2 $23 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 27 In 1,000 $34 $32 $30 $28 $28.3 Per Capital Personal Income St. Clair County 2006-2015 in 1,000s $29.9 $30.7 $30.1 $30.7 $31.4 $31.7 $31.3 $32.4 $33.4 $26 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 28 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 17

In 1,000 $33 $31 $29 $27 $25 Per Capital Personal Income Talladega County 2006-2015 in 1,000s $25.9 $26.4 $26.6 $26.6 $27.7 $28.7 $29.2 $29.6 $30.8 $31.8 $23 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 29 In 1,000 $34 $32 $30 $28 Per Capital Personal Income CEAZ 2006-2015 in 1,000s $26.9 $27.7 $28.6 $28.2 $28.8 $29.4 $30.3 $30.7 $31.8 $32.8 $26 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 30 18 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

86.5% 86.0% 85.5% 85.0% 84.5% 85.8% Per Capital Personal Income CEAZ as % of AL 2006-2015 85.1% 85.5% 86.2% 85.5% 84.7% 85.4% 85.8% 86.2% 86.2% 84.0% 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 31 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 4.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis % Change in Per Capital Personal Income CEAZ 05-06 -14-15 5.8% 2.5% -2.0% 1.9% 2.5% 0.9% -1.2% 3.5% 3.0% 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 32 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 19

Ave Weekly Wages 2 nd Qtr 2016 U.S. Avg - $989 AL Avg - $835 $649 or lower $650 - $749 $750 - $849 $850 or higher $671 $714 $813 $848 $733 $619 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 33 $60 State Sales Tax Collections CEAZ FY 08-09 FY 15-16 in $ Millions $57.87 $58.69 $58.30 In $ Millions $55 $50 $45 $43.07 $42.63 $47.35 $50.32 $52.32 $40 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 Source: AL Dept of Revenue 34 20 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Labor Force Calhoun County 2007-2016 in Thousands 56 54.9 54.6 53.9 In 1,000 52 48 51.6 51.3 49.6 48.3 47.3 46.0 45.8 44 40 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 35 Labor Force Calhoun County June 16 June 17 in Thousands 46.4 46.1 In 1,000 46.0 45.6 45.9 45.8 45.6 45.9 45.7 45.7 45.6 45.8 45.8 45.7 45.6 45.8 45.2 Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 36 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 21

In 1,000 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 52.7 Employment Calhoun County 2007-2016 in Thousands 51.5 47.9 45.7 46.0 45.3 44.0 43.5 42.8 42.7 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 37 44.0 Employment Calhoun County June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1,000 43.5 43.0 42.5 42.0 42.8 42.8 42.7 42.5 42.7 42.8 42.6 42.2 42.7 43.1 43.4 43.4 43.1 41.5 Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 38 22 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.9% Unemployment Rate Calhoun County vs Alabama 2007 2016 5.7% 5.7% 11.1% 11.4% 10.3% 8.9% 8.8% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% Calhoun 8.0% 7.0% 6.7% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 6.0% Alabama 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 39 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Unemployment Rate Calhoun County vs Alabama June 2016 June 2017 7.1% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.9% 6.3% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% Calhoun 6.7% 5.9% 5.7% 7.5% 6.8% Alabama 6.7% 6.1% 6.0% 5.0% 4.8% 5.9% 5.3% 4.4% 4.2% 5.2% Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 40 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 23

Labor Force Clay County 2007-2016 in Thousands 6.4 6.1 In 1,000 6.0 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.2 4.8 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 41 Labor Force Clay County June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1,000 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.2 Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 42 24 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

6.0 5.8 Employment Clay County 2007-2016 in Thousands In 1,000 5.5 5.0 5.3 4.7 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.2 4.5 4.0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 43 In 1,000 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 Employment Clay County June 16 June 17 in Thousands 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 4.8 Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 44 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 25

21% 16% 11% 6% 1% 5.5% 4.0% Unemployment Rate Clay County vs Alabama 2007 2016 7.9% 5.7% 16.7% 14.5% 11.8% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% Clay Alabama 9.4% 8.4% 7.2% 6.1% 6.2% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 6.0% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 45 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Unemployment Rate Clay County vs Alabama June 2016 June 2017 7.1% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.9% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% Clay 6.3% 6.7% 5.9% 5.7% 7.5% 6.8% Alabama 6.7% 6.1% 5.3% 6.0% 5.0% 4.8% 4.4% 4.2% 5.2% 5.1% Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 46 26 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Labor Force Cleburne County 2007-2016 in Thousands 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.5 In 1,000 6.0 5.6 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.2 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 47 Labor Force Cleburne County June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1,000 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 48 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 27

6.4 6.2 6.2 Employment Cleburne County 2007-2016 in Thousands In 1,000 6.0 5.6 5.9 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.2 4.8 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 49 In 1,000 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 Employment Cleburne County June 16 June 17 in Thousands 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.7 Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 5.7 5.6 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 50 28 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.7% Unemployment Rate Cleburne County vs Alabama 2007 2016 5.7% 5.1% 11.0% 10.5% 10.2% 10.0% 9.7% 9.6% Cleburne 8.2% 7.7% 6.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% Alabama 6.1% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 51 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.1% Unemployment Rate Cleburne County vs Alabama June 2016 June 2017 6.2% 6.2% 6.1% 6.0% 6.5% 6.2% Cleburne 5.6% 7.2% 6.0% 6.8% 6.1% 5.7% 6.1% 5.3% 5.9% Alabama 5.2% 4.4% 4.2% 5.1% 4.3% 4.2% 5.2% Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 52 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 29

Labor Force St. Clair County 2007-2016 in Thousands 39 38 38.3 38.5 38.5 38.7 38.5 38.4 38.6 In 1,000 37 36 36.0 36.5 36.8 35 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 53 39.0 Labor Force St. Clair County June 16 June 17 in Thousands 38.9 38.9 38.9 39.0 38.9 38.8 38.8 In 1,000 38.8 38.6 38.7 38.7 38.6 38.6 38.7 38.7 38.4 Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 54 30 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

In 1,000 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 34.8 Employment St. Clair County 2007-2016 in Thousands 34.7 32.8 34.4 35.1 35.9 36.4 36.3 36.3 36.5 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 55 38.0 Employment St. Clair County June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1,000 37.0 36.0 36.5 36.7 36.4 36.4 36.7 36.9 36.8 36.3 36.7 36.9 37.2 37.2 37.2 35.0 Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 56 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 31

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.4% Unemployment Rate St. Clair County vs Alabama 2007 2016 5.7% 5.0% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 10.9% 10.1% St. Clair 8.8% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 6.0% 6.9% 6.1% 5.8% 5.3% 5.3% Alabama 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 57 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Unemployment Rate St. Clair County vs Alabama June 2016 June 2017 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 5.7% 5.9% 6.8% 6.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.3% 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.1% 5.3% 5.3% 5.6% 4.9% St. Clair Alabama 4.0% 3.8% 5.7% 4.4% 4.2% 5.2% Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 58 32 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Labor Force Talladega County 2007-2016 in Thousands 40 38 38.9 38.3 37.8 In 1,000 36 35.1 35.3 35.0 35.7 35.4 35.2 34.8 34 32 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 59 Labor Force Talladega County June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1,000 35.0 34.8 34.6 35.0 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.9 34.7 34.7 34.5 34.8 34.9 34.7 34.5 34.6 34.4 34.2 Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 60 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 33

38 36.9 Employment Talladega County 2007-2016 in Thousands In 1,000 36 35.5 34 32.6 32.7 32.9 32.3 32.4 32 31.7 31.2 30.4 30 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 61 33.5 Employment Talladega County June 16 June 17 in Thousands 33.0 32.8 33.0 32.8 32.6 In 1,000 32.5 32.0 32.4 32.3 32.3 32.4 32.3 32.2 32.2 31.8 32.3 31.5 31.0 Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 62 34 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

20.0% 15.0% Unemployment Rate Talladega County vs Alabama 2007 2016 14.4% 13.5% 11.6% Talladega Alabama 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 9.4% 8.6% 7.2% 11.0% 10.5% 7.8% 9.6% 6.6% 6.8% 5.2% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 5.7% 6.1% 6.0% 4.0% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 63 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Unemployment Rate Talladega County vs Alabama June 2016 June 2017 7.0% 6.8% 7.0% 7.1% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 7.2% 6.8% 7.0% Talladega 5.7% 5.9% 8.0% Alabama 7.1% 6.8% 6.1% 6.1% 5.0% 4.8% 5.7% 5.3% 4.4% 4.2% 5.2% Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 64 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 35

144 142.4 141.6 140.6 Labor Force CEAZ 2007-2016 in Thousands In 1,000 140 136 136.9 136.6 134.4 133.9 132.6 132 130.9 130.6 128 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 65 132.0 Labor Force CEAZ June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1,000 131.5 131.0 130.5 130.0 131.1 130.9 130.5 130.7 131.5 130.7 130.7 130.1 131.3 131.1 130.8 130.3 131.0 Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 66 38 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

In 1,000 140 136 132 128 124 120 116 136.4 133.1 Employment CEAZ 2007-2016 in Thousands 123.6 120.9 122.6 123.1 123.3 123.0 122.6 122.4 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 67 126 Employment CEAZ June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1,000 124 122 122 123 122 122 123 123 122 121 123 124 125 125 124 120 118 Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 68 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 39

20.0% 15.0% Unemployment Rate CEAZ vs Alabama 2007 2016 14.4% 13.5% 11.6% CEAZ Alabama 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 9.4% 8.6% 7.2% 11.0% 10.5% 7.8% 9.6% 6.6% 6.8% 5.2% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 5.7% 6.1% 6.0% 4.0% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 69 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Unemployment Rate CEAZ vs Alabama June 2016 June 2017 6.6% 6.4% 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% CEAZ 7.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.8% 5.9% 5.7% Alabama 6.4% 6.1% 5.6% 5.3% 4.7% 4.5% 5.3% 5.2% 4.4% 4.2% Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 70 40 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

4.6% 5.9% 5.1% Alabama Unemployment Rates June 2017 Preliminary State Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) State Ave 5.2% Unemployment Rate 6.5% and Below 6.6% - 7.9% 8.0% and Above 5.7% 5.3% 5.1% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 71 Manufacturing Sector Employment CEAZ 2006-2016 in Thousands 25 23.9 In Thousands 23 20 18 22.4 21.4 18.2 17.3 17.6 18.4 19.2 20.2 21.0 21.1 15 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 72 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 41

Service Sector Employment CEAZ 2004-2014 in Thousands In Thousands 55 53 50 48 50.7 53.6 52.5 49.4 49.4 50.7 51.5 51.6 51.4 51.9 52.2 45 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 73 Federal Sector Employment CEAZ 2004-2016 in Thousands In Thousands 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 5.17 5.65 6.00 6.26 6.18 6.22 6.23 5.88 5.29 4.84 4.58 4.38 4.33 4.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 74 42 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

CEAZ: Market Summary Population - Flat Incomes Up Tax Revenues Flat Labor Market Labor Force Down Employment Up Unemployment Trending Down Economy in Region has recovered Not Back to Historic Highs of 07 Up from previous year Reductions in Federal Employment significant (Especially for Calhoun) State business leaders optimistic Other areas of state show more significant recovery 75 Economic Drivers Population Dynamics Employment/Income/GDP Construction and Housing Autos/Energy Opportunity and Innovation State of Alabama Update CEAZ 2017 76 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 43

Millions 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.5 Workforce Dynamics Population for Alabama 2000-2016 in Millions U.S. Growth 9.7% U.S. Growth 4.7% Ala 1.5 % 4.76 4.79 4.80 4.82 4.83 4.84 4.85 4.86 Ala 7.5 % 4.72 4.63 4.67 4.45 4.47 4.49 4.50 4.53 4.57 4.3 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 77 Percent Change 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 Regional Population Percent Change (2000-2010) 9.7 7.5 9.1 17.6 18.3 1.4 4.3 18.5 15.3 11.5 20.6 US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Source: U.S. Census Bureau 78 44 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Regional Population Percent Change (2010- July 2016) Percent Change 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 10.8 9.6 6.4 6.4 7.3 4.7 4.8 1.5 2.5 3.3 0.7 US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Source: U.S. Census Bureau 79 Percent Change 2.8 2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 Regional Population Percent Change (July 2015 - July 2016) 0.7 * Top 10 States for Business Chief Exec Magazine AL 2017 19th AL 2016 20th 0.2 0.3 * 1.8 * * 1.1 0.3 0 * * * 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.6 US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Chief Executive Magazine 80 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 45

Regional Unemployment Rate May 2017 Unemployment Rate Percent 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 4.4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 4.9 States with Neg (-) Pop n Growth NY, MS, WY, CT, VT, 3.4 4.3 4.9 5.7 IL, PA, WV (%) 4.4, 4.9, 4.1, 4.9, 3.1, 4.6, 5.0, 4.5 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.8 US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX 81 U.S. Average Weeks Unemployed 1982 June 2017 Number of Weeks 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 39.6 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 24.7 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 82 46 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

U. S. Census Bureau Regions and Divisions Source: U. S. Census Bureau 83 Source: U. S. Census Bureau U. S. Population Changes (July 2015 - July 2016) State MSAs 1. New York 20,153,634 393. Carson City NV 54,742 Texas (4) + Florida (3) MSAs = 30% of all growth The 20 fastest growing MSAs = 56% of all growth Of the 20 fastest Of the 15 fastest growing MSAs growing large cities S Region 11 S Region 11 ( 6 in TX) W Region 8 W Region 4 NE Region 1 MW Region 1 84 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 47

U. S. Demographic Trends Population Change by Region Percent Population Change 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: U. S. Census Bureau U.S. NE MW S W 84.7 % of U.S. 14.5 13.8 9.7 4.7 3.2 3.9 1.6 6.8 6.5 1.5 2000-2010 2010-2016 86.8% of U.S. 85 Population Change Percent 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 Source: U. S. Census Bureau U. S. Demographic Trends Population Change by Region Percent U.S. NE MW S W 0.79 0.20 89.7 % of U. S. 0.21 1.16 1.15 0.70 0.05 1.06 2014-2015 2015-2016 94.3 % of U. S. 0.15 1.09 86 48 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Employment Alabama 1990 May 2017 Millions 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 Civilian Labor Force (million) Employed(million) Unemployment Rate (%) Seasonally Adjusted Percent 13.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 1.5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 3.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 87 Employment in 1,000s 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Alabama Employment by Sector 1990 May 2017 Manufacturing Government Trade/Trans/Util Education/Health Professional/Business Fin,Ins,Real est Seasonally Adjusted 50 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 88 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 49

Alabama Employment Population Ratio 1981 May 2017 % of Population Employed 68 64 60 56 52 48 64.4% = Employed Civilian noninstitutionalized population 16 + 54.5% 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 Source: Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 89 Alabama Labor Participation Rate 1946 June 2017 Participation Rate (Percent) 69 67 65 63 61 59 57 55 Seasonally Adjusted 64.4% Participation Rate = 16(+) working or Looking for work Total population of the same age group 57.3% 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 90 50 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Millions 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Labor Force (million) Employed(million) U6 - Unemployed (Percent) Unemployed Rate (percent) U.S. Employment 1990 May 2017 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Percent 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 91 Millions 20 17 14 11 8 5 U.S. Manufacturing and Retail Trade Jobs & Earnings 1980 June 2017 Seasonally Adjusted Manufacturing Jobs (Millions) Retail Jobs (Millions) Avg Weekly Earnings Manuf Avg Weekly Earnings Retail Trade 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Avg. $ Weekly 900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Table 8B. Weekly earnings production and nonsupervisory private nonfarm employees 92 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 51

Millions 25 20 15 10 5 U. S. Goods Producing and Service Jobs Workforce and Earnings 1980 June 2017 Goods Prod Employees (millions) Leisure & Hospitality Jobs (millions) Ed & Health Ser Jobs (millions) Avg Wk Earn Goods Prod Avg Wk Earn Leisure & Hosp Avg Wk Earn Ed & Health Seasonally Adjusted 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Avg. $ Weekly 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 93 U.S. Employment Population Ratio 1975 - June 2017 Percent of Population Employed 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 Seasonally Adjusted 64.4% 60.1% # Employed / Civilian noninstitutionalized population 16+ 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 94 52 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Participation Rate (Percent) 70 65 60 U.S. Labor Participation Rate 1946 June 2017 Seasonally Adjusted (1997-67.1%) 62.8% 55 Participation Rate= 16(+) working or Looking for work Total population of the same age group 1950 1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 95 U. S. Worker Participation Rate by Age Group (1994 2024) Percent Participation Rate 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 66.4 83.4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS, Monthly Labor Review, Dec. 2015 16-24 25-54 55-64 65+ 56.8 12.4 49.7 81.2 1994 2004 2014 2024 66.3 21.7 96 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 53

$60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 Per Capita Income U.S. vs. Alabama 1990-2016 CAGR (2006-2016) U.S. 3.5 % Alabama 2.8 % $49571 $39231 $20,000 $10,000 Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 97 U.S. and Alabama GDP Per Capita (1997-2016) GDP ($Billions) GDP/Capita ($1000) 190 60.0 Chained 2009 dollars 180 170 160 150 140 130 Alabama GDP $Billions U.S. Per-Capita GDP $1000 Ala Per-Capita GDP $1000 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) 98 54 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

$Billions 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Government Alabama Components of GDP 1997-2016 Chained 2009 dollars Prof/Bus Services Ed/Health Durable Goods Manufacturing Fin, Ins, Real Estate Retail Trade 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 99 U.S. And Alabama Top 5 Industries as Percent of GDP 2016 Percent of GDP 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 17 Government Durable Goods Ed/Health 16 11 10 8 Fin, Ins, Real Est Prof/Bus 21 12 13 6 9 0% Alabama United States Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 100 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 55

$Billions 800 700 600 500 400 300 U.S. National Defense Budget 1995-2022 in Billions Defense Budget percent of GDP National Defense Budget $Billions 705 672 589 Estimate Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 200 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0.0 Source: U.S. OMB Historical table (Budget authority by Function) for FY2015 Table 3.1-Outlays, DOD Budget Report/FY2016, Bloomberg Government 101 Defense Spending $Billions 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Defense Spending Ranking of Top 10 States $ Billions - FY 2015 53.0 49.3 37.9 VA CA TX MD FL 20.5 17.6 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.2 12.2 PA WA GA AL MA Source: U.S. BEA, U.S. Dept. of Defense, Bloomberg Government, National Conference of State Legislatures 102 56 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Percent of GDP 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% U.S. Defense Spending State Rankings Percent of GDP 2009 vs. 2015 13.9% 13.5% 11.2% 10.7% 9.8% 9.9% 2009 2015 8.6% 5.9% 7.0% 6.0% 7.9% 5.7% 4.9% VA HI AK AL MD MS KT 4.7% Source: U.S. Dept. of Defense, Bloomberg Government, National Conference of State Legislatures 103 Housing U.S. Building Permits Privately-Owned Units 2003-2016 Million 3.00 2.70 2.40 2.10 1.80 1.50 1.20 0.90 0.60 0.30 0.00 Peak (2005) Year to Date May 31, 2017 Total Units 502,100 2,155,300 1,682,000 Single Unit Multi 5+ Units 336,400 165,600 1,206,600 745,500 389,000 444,700 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 104 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 57

Alabama Building Permits Privately- Owned Housing Units 2003 2016 (000) 32,034 33.0 30.0 May 2017 Year-to-Date 27.0 Total 5695 24.0 21.0 24,654 Single Unit 5268 18.0 15.0 Multi 5+ Units 427 15001 12.0 9.0 7547 11692 6.0 3.0 0.0 3317 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 105 Percent of U.S. Total Housing Units Authorized by States: 2016 Percent of Total 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 * 13.8 Top 10 = 57.3 % of U. S. Total * 9.6 8.5 5.1 4.9 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.7 TX FL CA NC GA WA CO AZ NY SC Source: U.S. Census Bureau Table 2u., Privately owned housing units * Chief Exec. Top 10 * * * 106 58 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Employment in Millions 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 U.S. Construction Employment 1982 June 2017 Seasonally Adjusted 7.69 5.44 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 6.89 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 107 Alabama Construction Employment 1990 May 2017 Employment -Thousands 120 Seasonally Adjusted 112.8 100 87.3 80 60 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 108 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 59

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Median Asking Price and/or Asking Rent for Vacant Housing Units 2001 2016 Nominal Dollars Asking Price ($000) Asking Rent ($) 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 109 Housing Statistics for Alabama May 2016 vs. May 2017 May 2016 May 2017 % Change Total Homes Sold 5279 5839 10.6% Avg. Selling Price $164,995 $175,766 6.5% Days on Market 138 135-2.2% Units Listed 30,515 26,851-12.0% Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate (ACRE) 110 60 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

State and National Economic Drivers Automotive Manufacturing Market and Driving Trends Energy Issue 111 Vehicle Assembly Plants in Southeastern United States Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama *Assembles Dodge Sprinter vans 112 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 61

59 20 59 65 20 Automotive Industry Clusters in Alabama There are more than 383 Automotive Companies and Suppliers in Alabama. 85 65 Legend Concentration of Automotive Suppliers Suppliers by Zip Code 1 2 3 4-6 10 7-11 Source: 2007 EDPA Automotive Database 113 Employment in 1000s 25 20 15 10 5 0 Alabama Motor Vehicle and Parts Employment 1990 2016 Employment Vehicle Manuf (000) Honda MB IH Employment Parts Manuf (000) Toyota Hyundai 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 26.1 12.9 Source: U. S. BEA, BLS 114 62 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Alabama Motor Vehicle Production 2004-2016 In Thousands 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Alabama 2016 Export $9.0 Billion Vehicles and Parts 1,048,000 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama (EDPA), Alabama Automotive Manufacturers Association (AAMA), Alabama Dept. of Commerce 115 In 100s of Thousands 15 12 9 6 3 0 U.S. Motor Vehicles and Parts Manufacturing Employment 1990 2016 1,313,000 660,000 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 944,100 Source: U.S. BLS, BEA, 116 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 63

Millions 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 U.S. Motor Vehicle Car & Lt. Commercial Vehicle Production 1986 2016 Millions Total for All Auto Manufacturers (millions) Total Foreign-Affiliated Mfg. (millions) 2.51 1986 1993 2000 2007 2014 Source: U.S. ESA, Federal Reserve System, Int. Org. of Motor Vehicle Manuf. (OICA) 12.6 12.2 5.1 117 Thousands of Units/Quarter Source: BEA Sales 150 130 110 90 70 50 30 U. S. Heavy Trucks Sales (Class 4-8) 1967 Qt1-2017 Thousands of Units/Quarter Truck Sales (000)/Qtr GDP %Change/Qtr Seasonally Adj 10 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017 GDP 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0 Percent Change in GDP 118 64 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Trillions 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 U.S. Total Vehicle-Miles Traveled vs. Per Capita Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) 1970-2016 Total Traveled (Trillions) 13,225 Per Capita VMT = Total Miles Traveled Civilian Population age 16+ Per Capita VMT 12,431 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 Source: U.S. DOT, FHWA 119 40 30 20 10 0 Motor Vehicle Renewable Fuel Blending Requirements 2002-2016-2022 Renewable Fuel Billions of Gallons Required Ethanol Percent Blended Required By EISA 2007 FRG 1990 Blend Wall 10% 36 Billion gal 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Source: U.S. EIA 120 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 65

U.S. Gasoline Current and Projected Use 1977 2016 2040 Billions of Gallons 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 142.3 CAFÉ 1985 27.5 mpg 2016 35.5 mpg 2025 54.5 mpg 103 Source: U.S. EIA 121 ISSUES and CHALLENGES National and State Economic Drivers Innovation & Opportunity 122 66 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Port of Mobile Source: Alabama State Port Authority, Alabama Seaport Sp13 123 Economic Drivers Source: Alabama State Port Authority 124 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 67

Alabama Aerospace Airbus A320 125 Alabama Aerospace Delta Atlas V 126 68 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Alabama Aerospace Blue Origin (BE-4) Engine 127 State of Alabama Summary Population Growth Slowing Unemployment Rate Regionally High State GDP and Defense Spending Correlation Auto Base Growing Housing Stable Highway Fuel Tax Uncertainty Workforce Participation? Growth Opportunities Innovation and Dynamic Change 128 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 69

CEAZ: Summary Labor Force Down from historic highs Up recently Employment Down from historic highs Up recently Unemployment Down from recent highs Trending lower Economy in Region has recovered to some extent State and local business leaders remain cautious Other areas of state have seen more significant recovery 129 70 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

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